Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I dunno, I just don't see a point for wolves to do that. Especially with how it's being pointed out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Thinlómien]

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's. I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

Somehing to keep in mind, yes. I get both "frustrated innocent" and "frustrated wolf who thinks he's being suspected for the wrong reasons" from his posts at the moment. Flipety flipety flip flop. Don't know what to think.

Originally Posted by BG

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.

1) You should not vote for cobblers but for wolves anyway, 2) why would suicidal tendencies disqualify someone as a lynch candidate? Also, in my experience, Nilp only nilps himself on Day1, if he survives that he starts playing more "normally" - as we have seen toDay. (Btw personally I'm still flipflopping on Nilp because he was fishy yesterDay, then a lot more reasonable toDay, but everything doesn't still quite add up.)

Originally Posted by Sally

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?

You're not suspicious. What I said was, basically half of the village is actively giving me innocent vibes. You are not, because you havent been around and aren't giving any vibes. Thus you are a more likely wolf than someone who seems actively innocent to me. Makes sense?

Re: discussing gifteds - I don't think it's a deliberate tactic from anybody (except maybe the cobbler!), it's either careless wolves (who are spicing their stories with "jumpy but could be guilty jumpy or innocent jumpy", possibly more likely about their fellows; and who are not considering an innocent should not stay stuff like that) or even more careless innocents (who do not realise they should not be doing that).

Originally Posted by Brinn

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

*poke*

[Thinlómien]

I know it's late but a quick list bc I can't think otherwise (also bc a lot of people seem less innocent to me now that they have posted more, lol):

Nice
BG - strong clueless ordo who hasn't played in a while vibes
Mac - gut feeling says innocent, logic says I should question that bc last game gut feeling said guilty and he was innocent. But logic also failed me last game, so I'm just gonna give him the benefit of doubt for toDay.

Kinda nice
Pitchwife and Greenie - don't seem über innocent but not very guilty either and also, I like their independent thinking
Kath - don't really see where all the suspicion against her is coming from - wolves trying to orchestrate a nice lynch? I maintain she seems more cheerful as an innocent and more detached as a wolf and now she's the former. Nonetheless, her involvement in the Hui lynch is a bit dodgy.

Who knows
Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf
Nogrod - ugh, what a mess
Brinn - to be fair, she hasn't done anything really suspicious but she doesn't give me any strong innocent vibes like almost most others in the village
Nilp - dodgy yesterDay, seemed better toDay, but when I think about it, maybe not better enough?
Shasta and Rikae - both seemed rather innocent to me yesterDay, toDay less so
Sally - not enough data. Doesn't seem to suspect much people which is usually wolfy, but then again, I seem to have the same problem myself...
Form - still not sitting right with me but still aware it might be very kneejerk


edit: xed with everyone

[Formendacil]

I daresay it's a case of closing the barn door after all the horses have left, but as regards defending myself of accusations of not knowing what "everyone knows," I'm basically a newbie. I haven't played in something like three or four years, and before that another couple years... so, yeah, I'm not exactly a grizzled veteran of the WW wars anymore.

Anyway, because I have difficulty admitting I can be wrong, I won't. Instead, I'll say I like Kath having a vote, and it's getting to be suppertime, so... alea iacta est.

++Kath

[Boromir88]

A quick tally...

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)

Oi, that's an even quicker tally.

I considered playing a prank, but it seems you'll have enough confusion with the final 30 minutes. So let the staring contest continue.

30 minutes to go.

Edit: crossed with Form. Added his vote.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf

I have noticed that he has been a bit quieter than what I've normally seen from him. I've been in agreement with him on a lot of things, but of course that doesn't mean he isn't evil. Legate is not someone I'd care to see lynched toDay, but I think he does gander a closer look toMorrow.

Right now Nogrod is my best lynch candidate. I could go for Formy as well. A lot of his posting does seem calculated, and not in a good way.

[Thinlómien]

I feel like we were playing another Day1. It would be nice to lynch a wolf toDay (wow really ) and have more to analyse toMorrow. I kinda don't like our odds toDay, everything looks horribly messy. And half an hour to go only.

Any thoughts about who people would like to see lynched?

I have to say that I personally don't have a strong preference, except NOT BG, Mac, Greenie, Pitch, or Kath. Or basically anything that starts looking "too easy".

Form would be okay. Nilp? Maaaaybe Rikae or Shasta. I'm a bit on the fence about Legate and Nogrod.

Brinn or Sally? If it happened I wouldn't cry (sorry lovelies!) but I don't really have a reason to push it.

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

[Thinlómien]

I don't know what to think of everybody collectively lifting Nog off the hook. Fellow wolves happy to get an excuse not to bus him?

[Macalaure]

Looked back over my list from earlier, and the only one I'm comfortable voting for right now is probably Nilp. I feel too on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand about everybody else I'm suspicious of. So I'm thinking I'm going to vote now and maybe gain some traction instead of throwing my vote away later or voting for someone I'd rather not vote for.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Pitchwife]

Form, after your last posts, why Kath and not me?


I agree that Nog explained the seer-thing well. Don't think that we should therefore ignore the forced reasoning of his vote yesterDay.


I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Form, after your last posts, why Kath and not me?


I agree that Nog explained the seer-thing well. Don't think that we should therefore ignore the forced reasoning of his vote yesterDay.


I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

Because Kath already had a vote--no point my talking all day about the two of you being my chief suspects and then splittimg the vote! To use a politics analogy, this isn't ranked choice voting.

[Nogrod]

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?

[Pitchwife]

Ok, the cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, but I'm still not going to vote with someone I feel is not on our side.


So as not to throw away my vote again, I could vote for any of Form, Nog or Nilp (Form only as a last resort, as I think he's most likely the cobbler). See no reason to vote for Mac.

[Nogrod]

Besides Legate I might be persuade to vote for...

Form - not adding more points besides many that are voiced already, but maybe that it feels he's overdoing it.

Brinn - she's very good at this, but looks like 100% non-committant, mainly agreeing and rubbing people the right way - and her suspicions feel more like blowing in the embers to see if they would light up.


EDIT: X'd with fex. Form voting Kath...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

Correct. Seer has had 3 dreams so far.

[Rikae]

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

I forgot that was a thing, so thank you for the reminder.


I'll probably vote for Form, unsurprisingly. I still have concerns about Kath, Legate, and Mac, and Rikae's posts toDay have piqued my interest in them, but I'd rather stay on track rather than having surprises this late in the day.


Also, I'm talking on the phone as I'm typing this post, so I hope it makes sense.


x'd with my beloved Nilp

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.

Oh for crying out loud, you do realise that this was in answer to him basically saying "Yeah, well, but what does it matter, I was only speculating?" and I tried to explain how & why it does matter? How is that 'cleaning up a mess' rather than explaining why the mess is a mess in the first place?
If you're saying I should have given more weight to this when deciding my vote, that's a valid criticism. But that's it.