Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Kath]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion.

[Boromir88]

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.

Thank you, Your Wiliness!

[Pitchwife]

Now this is more like it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?

A valid question, with the barefoot season approaching, but if I see someone hanging out a business sign I'll stop to inspect the goods, and Formy's post about talking amicably to the wolves seemed to do just that. The question is, was he looking to sell or buy?

Originally Posted by Kath

So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?

Well, like others have said, it depends on the makeup of the pack and also on who the NW is, how good they are at gifted-spotting - say, if it's Shasta for example it could be good idea to activate his power early. Anyway, the pack would have less to lose by losing the NW than by losing anybody else, so wolf-on-Nightmare-wolfing could be a valid tactic for them to fall back on in case of need.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

I don't really see what that wolves would have to gain from that which they wouldn't gain by sacrificing the NW, but thanks for continuing to make helpful suggestions!

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

My thought was more, if we think someone is the NW, should we try to find a non-NW instead. But I talked myself out of it, since the wolves could pretend to be the NW to buy themselves time.

[Brinniel]

I don't think the NW would try to get themselves lynched in the first Day or two because they do still count as a wolf in numbers and getting lynched too early is risky. However, I would expect that if the wolves bus one of their packmates that it would be the NW.

Keep in mind that the wolves may plan ahead all they want, but depending on how each Day plays out, those plans may fall by the wayside and shift completely as the game progresses.

While we do want the NW dead because a wolf is a wolf, in an ideal world, the NW would be the last wolf that we lynch. But I have no idea how we would actually plan for that except for sheer luck. I have no reservations to lynch a potential NW, but I would attempt to focus on suspicious folk who are less likely to be the NW at least early in the game - a potential under the radar wolf, for instance. Unfortunately, those are the wolves that are harder to spot.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't think the NW would try to get themselves lynched in the first Day or two because they do still count as a wolf in numbers and getting lynched too early is risky. However, I would expect that if the wolves bus one of their packmates that it would be the NW.

Keep in mind that the wolves may plan ahead all they want, but depending on how each Day plays out, those plans may fall by the wayside and shift completely as the game progresses.

While we do want the NW dead because a wolf is a wolf, in an ideal world, the NW would be the last wolf that we lynch. But I have no idea how we would actually plan for that except for sheer luck. I have no reservations to lynch a potential NW, but I would attempt to focus on suspicious folk who are less likely to be the NW at least early in the game - a potential under the radar wolf, for instance. Unfortunately, those are the wolves that are harder to spot.

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion.

+- Cobbler voting

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Kath

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

This is what I was thinking of too, but I would add +-Sally because she's sick and we don't need 'rona AND Werewolves.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Kath

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

Now this is interesting. I've said that I found Formendacil's response more innocent than wolfy, that you looked like a wolf (inasmuch as anyone can on Day One), and that I had no clue on Nilp. I don't think I offered a conclusion on Nog, but his reaction seemed pretty genuine, and as someone (Nilp?) said, a wolf probably wouldn't misremember the rules relating to wolves.

So I feel like I've said quite a lot. If you mean I've not contributed to the discussion of what we think the wolves will do, what the NW specifically will do, and what the rules for the Medium are (not to mention what a future game might look like), you're right, I haven't - because I don't think those are useful for finding wolves. As I recall, the Day One Game Mechanics Discussion last time was started by the Cobbler.

Checking before posting, I see Pitch has quoted me but not said anything about it... o.O And has flagged Lottie's 'keep the NW alive' concept, which raised pretty much the same eyebrow for me.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

+- Cobbler voting

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

Reading back over a few posts in more detail, I flagged this not-exchange:

Originally Posted by Loslote

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible.

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid. It would be a bit bold (sorry) for Day One wolves, wouldn't it?

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, all we need is a fourth one and I think we have the entire pack.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Checking before posting, I see Pitch has quoted me but not said anything about it... o.O And has flagged Lottie's 'keep the NW alive' concept, which raised pretty much the same eyebrow for me.

I was going to say that there is no such thing as an information-free D1, or at least if it seems so now it will certainly not be looking back from toMorrow, but forgot about it because it didn't seem so important and also forgot to remove the quote.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

Me too.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid.

The p-word is kind of loaded after last game, but to use another one, this feels like a rather premature counter-suspicion. Prophylactic also comes to mind. Any other words with p?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This is probably flavored by having played a lot of WW, too. To me, "big moves" are when you take control of the game, whether for a brief moment or for a Day or two. A Gifted reveal (real or fake), a known innocent taking control and steering the village for as long as they can stay alive, a wolf attacking a packmate in a way that is so obviously evil that the attention swings to to the wolf jumping in.

Okay, thank you. Makes sense.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The p-word is kind of loaded after last game, but to use another one, this feels like a rather premature counter-suspicion. Prophylactic also comes to mind. Any other words with p?

Prophylactic actually sums up my thought process when deciding whether to post it. I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

hS

[A Little Green]

Looks like a lot of debate on whether or not we should lynch the NW or not. ?? I mean, sure, would be nice to leave the NW for last so their ability doesn't come into play. But I agree with Pitch and Nilp, since there's no way of identifying the NW before they're killed this is pretty much theoretical.

Huin is definitely a man on a mission (I love Rikae's choice of words!). So far I disagree with Kath and think this probing and poking makes him lean more innocent than not - last game, when he was a wolf, he felt more cautious somehow and less eager to poke at people for reactions. On the other hand, his theory of how Lottie and Kath are plotting to get him killed made me raise an eyebrow - though last time I suspected someone for being paranoid it was four innocent people in a row

Not sure about Kath herself though - I'm not convinced she's plotting with Lottie, but her argument against Huin was odd.

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

He is doing a lot of pushing, but I think he had already voiced more opinions about other players than most others at the time. I could see a Kathwolf laying groundwork for an easy D1 lynch, but frustratingly, there's an equally likely scenario of innocent Kath trying to get the ball rolling on what little we have to go on with at this stage.

Lommy makes a point about Nilp's "I'm a nasty carnivore" -comment looking like a double bluff, and I do know what she means - this could be a Nilpwolf using his own tropes and mannerisms as a cover and exaggerating a bit, trusting his reputation for being chaotic and suicidal on D1 to give him a pass. Or could be innocent Nilp excited to be back. I'm flip-flopping myself into a corner here

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hui

Prophylactic actually sums up my thought process when deciding whether to post it. I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.


That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm finally here! First off, a disclaimer: the deadline is 1am our time, I'm back to work full time and sadly my job isn't one where you can play ww, so I'll be around a lot less than last game. Maybe it's not an entirely bad thing...

~*~

Originally Posted by Sally

Please don't bandwagon on me while I'm gone again, eh, Lommy?

Maybe you'll turn out to be a wolf this time.

Originally Posted by Form

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

Yeah but, if people don't even *try* to make Day1s useful, they certainly won't be!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?

I'm gonna start with the assumption that the wolves wouldn't go out of their way to bus the NW but if the wagon starts rolling they'll be happy to jump on it.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

Nilp, I love it that you're back *sends kisses* but this is just. too bold. Like, this doesn't read as anything but a double bluff. To quote Pitchwife: *PING!*

Originally Posted by Mac

Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy!

Lmao.

Originally Posted by Nilp

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

Hear, hear.

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away?

Sally and I weren't able to flood the thread with sweet nothings, sadly.

[Nogrod]

I meant just to check whether my gut feeling - that hS feels a bit over-eager to sound like one who has only the best of the village in mind - had actually any basis in the posting. And well, the number of these quotes kind of got a little out of hand, but I think they do confirm the feeling.

Originally Posted by hS

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

Originally Posted by hS

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Originally Posted by hS

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

Originally Posted by hS

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

Originally Posted by hS

I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

Originally Posted by hS

I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

It does raise my eyebrows a little. So if I'd have to vote right now, I'd consider voting for hS. I do hope we get something better than that though to base our votes.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

G55's not. She just couldn't resist

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Reading back over a few posts in more detail, I flagged this not-exchange:

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid. It would be a bit bold (sorry) for Day One wolves, wouldn't it?

hS

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

G55's not. She just couldn't resist

... She's Cobbling from beyond the DeadThread! That's next-level cobbling.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

I think maybe I'm not good at interpreting people's words. This is going to be a serious disadvantage in playing Tol-in-Gaurhoth.

Would it be amiss to ask what "bold moves" could constitute, in general terms? I feel like it's a term that's used a fair bit, so I'd like to know what people mean by it.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think maybe I'm not good at interpreting people's words. This is going to be a serious disadvantage in playing Tol-in-Gaurhoth.

Would it be amiss to ask what "bold moves" could constitute, in general terms? I feel like it's a term that's used a fair bit, so I'd like to know what people mean by it.

hS

This is probably flavored by having played a lot of WW, too. To me, "big moves" are when you take control of the game, whether for a brief moment or for a Day or two. A Gifted reveal (real or fake), a known innocent taking control and steering the village for as long as they can stay alive, a wolf attacking a packmate in a way that is so obviously evil that the attention swings to to the wolf jumping in.