Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Thinlómien]

It is true that it's hard to see why Borowolf wouldn't follow through and reveal as the seer.

Think about it.

He has laid the perfect grounds for it for Days, he has plenty of material to point to in order to back up his claim. He has been making loud enough seer hints that he could hope a few innocents would be partial to his reveal on the spot.

Especially if he revealed before the actual seer came forth? I think he might be initially believed far more than the real seer.

Wait I'm thinking and maybe I'll do a legate180 --

What if Borowolf was setting himself up for a fake seer reveal the whole time?? And then toDay, he chickened out for some reason, and decided to claim he's an ordo trying to fake to be the seer?

Maybe because if he made his seer claim toDay and there was a counter claim from the real seer, even if we believed him and lynched the real seer, we could bag a wolf toMorrow by lynching him.

While maybe he figured that he can't wait until toMorrow to make the claim after his parting post yesterDay which was going to look fishy otherwise.

I mean, it is important for the wolves that we lynch an innocent both toDay and toMorrow. Then they win. If we lynch a wolf on one of those Days, the game continues still. A fake seer reveal might start looking like a worse choice than just crossing their fingers that the actual seer hasn't dreamt of any wolves?

[Thinlómien]

Hmm. On the other hand, if Boro and Eönwë were both wolves, don't you think Boro would be pressing the "my not-death proves I was wrong about Eönwë" angle a little harder toDay?

Also if "suspecting Eönwë" is the question on which Boro's lack of getting Night killed supposedly hinges on, then why is the one who actually died Pitchwife who *dramatic drumroll* suspected Eönwë??

And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent?

I think the only thing I'm certain of is that there is no way in hell that all of Boro, Eönwë and Brinn are innocent. But that's not very much to go on.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent?

Why is my own sister calling me "virtually nobody"? Rude.

[A Little Green]

While we're tossing ideas around -

What's going on with Brinn? She's still playing pretty safe and uncontroversial. The best arguments for her innocence (as far as I can tell) have to do with her role in the Huin lynch; she voted for Lhuna, too, but only after she was already a goner so this doesn't give us much. The other argument for Brinn's innocence is how evil QT voted for her twice and then good QT laid off her. Though if good QT's choices have been informed by fake-Seer Boro, the likely reason they dropped her is because they saw the "Seer" hinting at her innocence, not because they'd have some evidence about her innocence that we don't (ie. dead Huinwolf's posts). The only thing we can get out of the QT turning away from voting Brinn is that if she is indeed Huin's fellow and the early QT votes for her an effort to make her look better, he at least managed this without slipping about her role in the QT.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rune

If he is right that QT followed his hints, then how would the known innocents have kept their trust in him a secret from the infected? Is there something I am missing?

I don't know if they'd have needed to. As soon as they're the ones controlling the vote, they could discuss potential Seers completely openly. The only risk is that if the QT later becomes evil-dominated, the bad guys could then try to signal to their living fellows re: the identity of a potential Seer. This seems pretty hypothetical to me though, as any "Seer" hinting directly enough for the QT to notice would probably have been noticed by the living wolves already anyway.

[Loslote]

A list, simplified:

Could be a wolf:
Ka
Eonwe
Brinn
Shasta

Probably not a wolf:
Boro
Rune

Probably innocent:
Lottie
Lommy
Greenie
Kath

Now, this is bold, and I am fully willing to admit that I could be wrong to put some of the players that I did in the probably innocent category - but I feel very confident that our three wolves are among the four players in the could be a wolf category. I'll also add that I don't suspect Shasta, I just think that he's the person I'm most possibly wrong about, and so if I'm wrong about any of my three main suspects, he's the person I would then look at. I would be willing to vote for any of Ka, Eonwe, or Brinn today, but for the Cuties:

+- Ka

[Brinniel]

I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.

So my suspects for toDay:
Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay
Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed.
Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf.

I don't like how quiet it is right now. Unfortunately, I have a business meeting scheduled for the last two hours of the Day, so at maximum, I might be able to slip in a vote, but you'll see little else from me.

For now, my vote would go to +-Ka.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.

So my suspects for toDay:
Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay
Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed.
Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf.

You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.