Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Thinlómien]

Day 1

Comments on the village events (amount of posting, fake vote discussion) on a very general level. Baffled by Lhuna's self-vote, but that's it. Was largely absent, apologised for this on Day2 and cited RL reasons.


Day 2

First post: mildly suspects Legate, Boro, and Brinn, doesn't suspect Sally or Mac. This phrasing caught my eye:

Good feelings about Greenie, who I thought was reading posts carefully and thinking about things in a genuine and sensible way which feels unwolflike. Zil is coming across in a similarly honest way.

Could the wolves have read this as her subtly mentioning her Night1 and Night2 dreams by lumping them together like that? I mean, timing-wise it would make sense for a seer who missed most Day1 to state her business quickly like this in her first post on Day2, while hiding it in a flow of general commentary of half a dozen villagers who caught her attention. But not really sure if this would stand out to anyone else really, I might be grasping at straws. For reference, the post is here.

Discusses wolf strategies, disagreeing with THE Ka. Says she doesn't suspect Eönwë. Replies to Kath's question by saying that had she been around, she'd have wanted to vote Legate or Boro on Day1.

Reluctantly takes part in the Kitscussion.

I've been asking questions which no-one has listened to or answered. For example, why are some people still suspecting Kit.
On the subject of which, I've been re-reading and found a couple of other people I feel quite good about.

However "other people" amounts to just one: Lottie. Boro is still "weird" and Legate suspicious.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ugh. I don't like the choices on this lynch list. Not particularly suspicious of any of them.
Brinn would be my least worst choice but it sticks in the craw to have my vote dictated by a cobbler.
If I vote for Legate will I be throwing away my vote?

The votes were Mac 3, Lommy 2, Huine / Lottie / Brinn / Inzil 1 at this point.

Voted Huine, citing trust in Kit as a reason. Still didn't like doing so.

Thoughts: I quite like my conspiracy theory about Greenie/Inzil (*gasp* yes I like a thery that points to Zil's innocence! ) but it is perhaps more prudent to assume the wolves thought Lalaith had dreamt of Kit, given how defensive/trusting she was of her. Other suspected dream in that case? I guess it could be any of Greenie/Zil/Sally/Lottie/Mac, nothing really stands out to me in particular so hard to say of anything would have stood out to the wolves either. Also given Lalaith's erratic early presence, maybe the wolves even optimistically speculated a seer!Lalaith may have missed her Night1 dream?


Day 3

Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the Hueywaggon

Put this as a quote because I'm debating whether it makes Zil a more or less likely "seer dream".

Seriously? Logically, the only thing [Kitanna] could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer. But well done KitRanger for leading us to catch the wolf. Hope you're celebrating in QT!

I guess the wolves could have read this as frustration from the seer about the ranger death, especially is she had dreamed of her?

Questions Brinn's for "pot calling the kettle black"ey suspicions.

1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Says "Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts" and goes off to build a case against him. If I recall correctly, she persisted in this suspicion of Eönwë. This is certainly not a point in his favour. Concludes the post with the rather forceful "Really. This does not look good."

Asks Greenie to clarify her contradictory seeming reasoning.

Quotes a whole post from Kath about the Kitscussion that concludes Eönwë is suspicious, and says: "Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought." Would a pack with Wolfwë read this as the seer fishing for support for her case against a dreamed wolf?

Her thoughts about Day3 voting:

So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling.
So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

Nervous about Sally's pick, which she later explained pushed her to vote Sally (or to be precise: Sally not telling us her pick made her suspicious).

Thoughts: this does not look good for Eönwë at all.


Day 4

Expresses unhappiness about recent innocent deaths.

Thinks my bloodlust on Day3 was scary.

Yes... my gut feeling was that most of the people panicking at the end there were bewildered innocents. Rune for example feels innocent to me as a result of DL behaviour. And Legate's reactions - I started feeling a lot better about him. A bit late now of course [rolleyes smiley]

This I presume is what Lottie referred to just now when she said Lalaith's Legate comment could have been interepreted as frustration for losing her dream of the Night before? Nice catch, but it doesn't necessarily make me feel better about Lottie that she was able to summon this snippet so easily.

One thing that occurs to me before I turn in - if Lommy is a wolf then Lottie is probably not and vice versa.

Says she should have voted Eönwë the Day before. Disagrees with Zil suspicion. "Mostly feeling good" about Pitch and Rune, and "Greenie I have had good feelings about all game but I need to check to see if anything happened yesterDay to change that. "

Says my judging people who did not want to vote Sally yet did is "too much" because I was "stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!"

Points out my leaving out her case against Eönwë in my vote summary (tbh absolutely validly; I had criticised her for - if I recalled correctly - her not having other suspects than Legate and it turned out to be blatantly untrue), calls me bloodthirsty again. Repeats her "mea culpaing" about failing to vote anyone else than Sally.

Wants to wait for the QT vote. "I feel still feel bad and somewhat dispirited about the shambles of yesterDay."

As for suspicions:

I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves. [smoker smiley]

(Of candidates discussed?) would prefer to vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, and says could be persuaded to vote Lommy or Shasta.

Thinks Legate's point about Hui protecting Brinn makes Brinn look more innocent.

Then there's this, which I think greatly added to people starting discussing Lhuna as a lynch option:

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

Hmm. Not sure what to make of this, possibly makes her look less convinced about Eönwë? Or less trusting of QT??

Then there's the already quoted bit about "yes, definitely" having to look at Lhuna if she's not lynched.

Questions Boro's wolfy phrasings, asks if he thinks Zil is innocent.

Vote:

I feel quiet disempowered by yesterDay's shambles. I haven't had a proper chance to re-evaluate.
In the QT there are two people who successfully voted for a wolf (Kit and Legate)
I am going to trust them.
++Lhuna

Thoughts: leaning towards agreeing with Lottie that if the wolves thought Lalaith was the seer, they thought her Night4 dream had been Legate.


Conclusions: if the wolves killed Lalaith for looking like the seer (and why wouldn't they gun for the seer?), I think they assumed she dreamed of Kit on Night1 or 2 and Legate on Night 4. The other Night 1/2 dream would have been presumed to be innocent Greenie or innocent Zil, or perhaps Mac or even Sally. For Night3 the rather obvious conclusion is wolf!Eönwë. I mean no other theory seems half as plausible.

Therefore I am very suspicious of Eönwë.


edit: xed with #1055 onwards

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Inzil:Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

I'm still rather hurt I didn't merit a mention in her list.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I really, really don't think the wolves can afford not to try and off the Seer at this (or any) stage, as s/he becomes increasingly dangerous to them the longer s/he lives. I can't keep my eyes open long enough to look into it, so I'll let someone else go through her posts and look for potential Seer clues. The only thing that immediately occurs to me is how vocal she was about trusting Kitanna on D2. This could maybe have been interpreted as a Seer who had dreamed her after her slip the Day before.

Well, the Seer is the prime target always. It's only when they really don't see compelling signs that they'll just go for one unlikely to be lynched.

[Eönwë]

Ok, just able to check in quickly, and thought it would be useful to have a list of all votes. Will hopefully have time to analyse when I wake up.

Good people are italicized and Evil people (or an Evil-dominated/equal-but-with-evil-tiebreaker QT) bolded.


Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

In her Lalaitholysis Lommy say the following regarding Lalaith's view on Eönwë::

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

“If I recall correctly, she persisted in this suspicion of Eönwë. This is certainly not a point in his favour."

If I remember correctly Eönwë was also semi-permanently on Legate’s radar. The question is if it indicates that Eönwë might be infected, or if it is too obvious for the infected to go systematically for the ones that suspect them. I am leaning towards the former at the moment, because of the size of the pack any nightly kill is likely to incriminate them on some level.


Lommy about Lalaith's comment regarding QT voting for Lhuna who had voted for her main suspect Eönwë:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmm. Not sure what to make of this, possibly makes her look less convinced about Eönwë? Or less trusting of QT?

Seems quite plain to me. It is an innocent who starts to second guess her own reasoning because of external factors.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Conclusions: if the wolves killed Lalaith for looking like the seer (and why wouldn't they gun for the seer?), I think they assumed she dreamed of Kit on Night1 or 2 and Legate on Night 4. The other Night 1/2 dream would have been presumed to be innocent Greenie or innocent Zil, or perhaps Mac or even Sally. For Night3 the rather obvious conclusion is wolf!Eönwë. I mean no other theory seems half as plausible.

Wait, so your reason for suspecting me is that Lalaith suspected me for two Days and then after seeing the QT vote, re-evaluated and decided to follow the QT vote while I was tied with Lhuna for votes (and thus still a viable lynch-candidate)? That seems quite flimsy to me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Wait, so your reason for suspecting me is that Lalaith suspected me for two Days and then after seeing the QT vote, re-evaluated and decided to follow the QT vote while I was tied with Lhuna for votes (and thus still a viable lynch-candidate)? That seems quite flimsy to me.

Fair point about you and Lhuna being tied, I didn't consider it from that angle. But I don't think she reconsidered her opinion about you, she just decided pursuing Lhuna was more important. (Which, I guess would have been fair enough from a seer who had dreamt of wolf!you if she was feeling confident she would survive until another Day to come out; that way both you and Lhuna could be caught.) She seemed highly trusting of the QT after all. But - I'm acknowledging I'm building quite a shaky construction here based on my interpretation of a clueless ordo's posts, trying to think like a wolf who thought she was the seer and with no actual knowledge of the wolves' identities to help me here. Still, I don't think Lalaith's suspicion of you is a thing we should entirely ignore, especially paired with (who said that?) the previous wolf kill Legate having suspected you too - while mostly you've flown relatively under the village's collective radar.

This all being said, ironically enough Eönwë's #1115 might be the first post of his in this game that I find both very sensible and genuine in tone.

~*~

Originally Posted by Inzil

The ones who came after the QT Brinn vote still don't know, though, the true intention behind it.

I don't follow. I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much. (And if they weren't allowed to read back, I doubt Rikae summarising earlier events to the others would be forbidden too?)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much. (And if they weren't allowed to read back, I doubt Rikae summarising earlier events to the others would be forbidden too?)

What I meant was that Hueywolf would surely be aware what he says can be scrutinized by Innocents in the QT just as much as here. Nothing he said could be trusted. He wouldn't have to give G55 any reason to vote a certain way, besides "follow me".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Fair point about you and Lhuna being tied, I didn't consider it from that angle. But I don't think she reconsidered her opinion about you, she just decided pursuing Lhuna was more important. (Which, I guess would have been fair enough from a seer who had dreamt of wolf!you if she was feeling confident she would survive until another Day to come out; that way both you and Lhuna could be caught.) She seemed highly trusting of the QT after all. But - I'm acknowledging I'm building quite a shaky construction here based on my interpretation of a clueless ordo's posts, trying to think like a wolf who thought she was the seer and with no actual knowledge of the wolves' identities to help me here. Still, I don't think Lalaith's suspicion of you is a thing we should entirely ignore, especially paired with (who said that?) the previous wolf kill Legate having suspected you too - while mostly you've flown relatively under the village's collective radar.

This all being said, ironically enough Eönwë's #1115 might be the first post of his in this game that I find both very sensible and genuine in tone.

~*~

I don't follow. I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much. (And if they weren't allowed to read back, I doubt Rikae summarising earlier events to the others would be forbidden too?)

For what it's worth, Lommy, this discussion with Eonwe you're having is making me feel better about you.