Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Are you kidding me? Sally's suspicions were all based on gut feeling alone, and I guess my insisting that I was not a wolf convinced her. But you know what I was thinking all last Night? "Well, there's no way I'll be alive in the Morning. The wolves are going to think I was trying to hint that I was Gifted. They'll definitely kill me toNight." I was very surprised when I saw that I was still alive, and I half thought, "maybe the wolves are going to try to prod a little, see if they can figure out if I was Gifted hinting or not." But I really didn't think anyone was going to be this blatant about it.

(I wasn't, by the way. I am not the Seer, I have zero special information, I was not trying to hint that I was Gifted to Sally yesterDay, I was simply trying to convince her I was innocent, because it seemed horrible to me that we could lose two innocents in one mislynch.)

Originally Posted by Boromir88

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lhuna voted once as a throwaway because she wouldn't be there for the Deadline, once very early for Lommy, and once missed the deadline. She can't be here at the deadline, so she has never posted when it's gotten messy. She can't control that, it isn't suspicious or innocent, it just is.

This post from Boro screams suspicious to me. He joins Lommy at the top of my suspicion list. Like, what even is this.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

Yes, that's what I'm thinking. At this point, I really, really think that Boro was a wolf, and that Lommy and maybe also Greenie pushed Sally and downplayed the suspicion against Boro (neither even mentioned him in the same breath as Sally and Zil, even though he did exactly the same thing).

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

This truly bums me out.

Legate was by far the most innocent looking in my eyes, but I guess that was also the root of his downfall. He seemed to have been generally trusted, or at least not the subject of much suspicion.

I am off to bed and will have a busy day at work tomorrow, but I will se if I can find enough time to take a look at the people suspected by Legate. No matter what I will be here some hours prior to deadline.

[Lalaith]

Lottie

when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable.

Yes... my gut feeling was that most of the people panicking at the end there were bewildered innocents. Rune for example feels innocent to me as a result of DL behaviour. And Legate's reactions - I started feeling a lot better about him. A bit late now of course
But while Boro's accusations of hypocrisy seem a bit harsh I agree we didn't cover ourselves in glory failing to agree to an alternative candidate in time.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This post from Boro screams suspicious to me. He joins Lommy at the top of my suspicion list. Like, what even is this.

24 hours of pent up frustration with the day's events. Fairly quiet and then we have nearly 2 full pages in 30 minutes.

If my math is correct, I'm not the statistics person though, without the Ranger, we have 4 days to lynch a wolf. They've been far too content to sit back and have the gifted reveal themselves.

It's time (mostly I say this to myself) to start shaking their cage. And yesterday's end day did not help matters at all. Point well taken about looking at who was comfortable yesterday and who wasn't. If you are not a wolf, I expected you to be killed because of your previous vote for Huey and exchanges with sally. I'm still not convinced you aren't being a bold wolf openly getting sally to change her pick and not hunt you. But I'm also not convinced you are a wolf.

Trying to get up in some grills and rattle cages.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm still not convinced you aren't being a bold wolf openly getting sally to change her pick and not hunt you. But I'm also not convinced you are a wolf.

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her.

But you would only have known that after her reveal, which was ~45 min to DL, so the time to get a Zilwagon rolling after that was limited. Prior to that, you would only have known that she was not a wolf, so you could have been comfortable with lynching her (and indeed had her in your suspects list) right up until the reveal.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But you would only have known that after her reveal, which was ~45 min to DL, so the time to get a Zilwagon rolling after that was limited. Prior to that, you would only have known that she was not a wolf, so you could have been comfortable with lynching her (and indeed had her in your suspects list) right up until the reveal.

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally". It was possible, and I'm pretty sure it would've worked, too. I didn't make that call because I decided to take the risk and hope Sally was a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have known she wasn't, and I would've known I was likely her target, so I definitely would have committed to Zil as the alternate option.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally".

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.

I actually agree with that. I'm by no means letting him off the hook - I still think at least one of the people who voted Mac right at the end was a wolf - but I'm getting a better feeling about Zil toDay and a much, much worse one about Boro (and Lommy).

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Inzil

If it had been me, there's no way I'd have said who I'd really picked. I'd have picked a name out of thin air.

Why is that Inzil? In this situation, although sally didn't specifically put a name out there until very late on, her vote did at least indicate which way she was planning to go with it.

Originally Posted by Lal

Well at least the baddies are no longer in the majority on the QT.

That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Are you kidding me? Sally's suspicions were all based on gut feeling alone, and I guess my insisting that I was not a wolf convinced her. But you know what I was thinking all last Night? "Well, there's no way I'll be alive in the Morning. The wolves are going to think I was trying to hint that I was Gifted. They'll definitely kill me toNight." I was very surprised when I saw that I was still alive, and I half thought, "maybe the wolves are going to try to prod a little, see if they can figure out if I was Gifted hinting or not." But I really didn't think anyone was going to be this blatant about it.

There must have been a good reason for the wolves to go for Legate last Night because actually I largely agree with this in terms of possible wolf thoughts. Lottie's choice to vote for sally even though she knew she was one of sally's top suspects I think would have made it hard for them to believe she was the Seer though. That would have been one hell of a risk for her to take.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

Amidst all this, I really would like to hear more from Lhuna. I know timezones are a pain, but my previous suspicion of her for the Kit discussion hasn't gone anywhere.

Originally Posted by Boro

When I voted, Lottie was the 5th vote for sally. Not including mine, 8 people still had to vote. Lottie, Legate, and to some degree sally, Mac, Brinn, Greenie had stated suspicions on me. Pardon me for worrying a panic-wagon of "don't lynch the hunter" went towards me in the last 5 minutes, after G55's "reveal" had everyone rushing to save her except for Kit.

A lot of people were looking for an alternative to sally here though, and Boro had previously stated he didn't want to lynch the Hunter, and with 8 votes to go another candidate could have garnered votes. Ok, self preservation, but did you actually believe sally?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

This post gives me all the creepy vibes.

[Lalaith]

One thing that occurs to me before I turn in - if Lommy is a wolf then Lottie is probably not and vice versa.

[Pitchwife]

Also let's not focus on Lommy vs Lottie to the extent of neglecting those who added to the suspicion against sally later: Brinn, Greenie, Eönwë, THE Ka (who actually tried to make something like a case against sally, beyond 'her vote was bad and she's acting weird').


Bedtime now. I'm on annual leave, so I'll probably pop in sometime in the Afternoon and be back a few hours to DL.

[Eönwë]

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.

[Eönwë]

And again, it's mid-game, I don't think it's too bold for an Infector (in this case Lommy) to have gone all-out on the Sally quarantining. Since she's already in the public eye as suspicious, she doesn't have much to lose by being in the spotlight, and the end result is that a non-wolf got lynched.

[Brinniel]

Just some initial thoughts about everyone:

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.
Lottie: I am leaning toward innocentish for her vote Day 2 and the fact that she didn't make a strong push for an alternative when she knew she might be hunted. Still, I haven't completely discounted the possibility that she could be a clever wolf who doesn't mind taking risks.
Pitchwife: His vote on Day 2 looks innocent to me and there was nothing in his behavior yesterDay that makes me think otherwise.
Kath: Has been a bit under-the-radar, but right now I feel okay about her since I agreed with her suspicions yesterDay.
Lhuna: Wasn't really around yesterDay. Still find her suspicious for reasons stated yesterDay.
Inziladun: His behavior and voting record combined, I find him highly suspicious.
Greenie: She's been floating a bit under the radar for me, so I'm not quite sure. I do find myself going back and forth on her.
Boromir: Wary, but right now feeling okay about him.
Lalaith: I think she could've possibly been a wolf-on-wolf voter on Day 2. She was resistant to vote Sally, and then she did.
Eönwë: Another potential a wolf-on-wolf voter on Day 2. He voted for Sally early yesterDay. If Inzil is a wolf, this could make his vote more suspicious. I think there's a fair chance that he or Lalaith are wolves, but less likely both of them are.
Rune: Ugh, I really don't know about him at this point.
Ka: Not sure about her either.
Shasta: I've liked his thinking so far and he's feeling genuine to me.

[Thinlómien]

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.

As for the Legate kill - I'm not surprised at all. He was very widely considered innocent, especially after the Huine lynch. I will look at his posts at some point to look for "seer clues" the wolves might have picked up, but now I'm off to read toDay's discussion so far.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inzil

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early,

I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.

In my experience wolves are more prone to overreact to suspicion or potential suspicion, because they are nervous of getting caught. Again, absolute basic werewolf principle I thought you'd agree on. And again, yes, being jumpy doesn't mean you're automatically a wolf. But again, it makes it more likely because wolves are jumpier on average than innocents.

Originally Posted by Zil

Because she's RL busy, maybe?

Eh, if the claimed hunter hasn't voted yet, then I would assume they haven't sent their pick either. If they're RL busy and have to send their pick early, I would assume they'd also vote early.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

Basically. Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, the whole discussion of my attitude about "Sally the hunter" is pretty theoretical. You have to understand I was 90% sure she was a wolf. 90% of my brain was "I don't trust her, I don't trust her, I don't trust her let's kill her". The remaining 10% was "but ok what if she is actualy the hunter? what then?" and my brain's answer was "well it's just gonna be fun and it would be epic if she stabbed a wolf". I will readily admit that I was arguing for lynching a potential hunter making sense just because I wanted to get Sally lynched because I was convinced she was a wolf, not the hunter, so I kinda twisted my whole logic around that. I see I'm still doing it to a degree...

You don't need to tell me I was wrong about Sally, and that I was stupid, and that I literally pressed my fellow villagers to lynch our hunter. I perhaps ignored whether it's strategically wise because I was too blinded by my conviction that Sally was bluffing. So yes, I shot us in the foot a little, and you can be angry and frustrated about that, but I truly thought I was doing what's best for the village.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I also note that Lommy was not one of the people asking for the name of the person Sally was hunting, and didn't try to suggest any names or anything like that. She seemed completely fine with whatever Sally decided - which, given that none of the people Sally suspected are people I think are at all likely to be wolves, I find really concerning.

Wrong. I was not one of the first people to ask her who she's hunting, because it simply did not cross my mind to do so. However, once the question had been brought up, I seconded it. And yeah, I was fine with whatever Sally was going to pick. I trusted that if she was miraculously the real hunter, she might have a good guess. Also I admit that I also thought "well, if she happens to be the hunter, it's her problem who she picks, not mine". Irresponsible? Maybe a little, yes, but once again I repeat: I thought it was extremely unlikely she actually was the hunter. I certainly did not spend any time speculating who she might hunt if she's the hunter, because a) like I said I did not think she was the hunter in the first place, b) I would not think that the suspicions she voiced on the thread had anything to do with who she's hunting in case she was the actual hunter. Most hunters I've seen don't want to keep their cards on the table like that.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary.

I'm sorry, I can get a bit of tunnel vision in werewolf. Whether I'm right or wrong is about 50-50... At least, with Sally and Mac dead I'm forced to start afresh, and I think I've learned to take a breather when I get tunnel vision.

Originally Posted by Pitch

She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

For the record, I still think it's extremely likely there is a wolf among the late Mac voters - it just wasn't Sally, who I pegged as the most fishy of them. But there is more than one wolf left, so there could be a wolf among the early Mac voters too. Or among the Huine voters. Or among those who didn't vote either. But I thought the late Mac voters were the most likely bunch and thus the best place to start.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim. Besides, later it was brought into the discussion that Sally should tell us who she's hunting. She did not react, even though she seemed to be around. That also seemed dodgy to me. She could have said "I'd rather not tell" or told us a name and maybe given us more to analyse that way because now the people not voting Sally would have been protecting both Sally AND whoever she named. To me, she looked like a wolf caught in the middle of a half baked ploy, unsure how to proceed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this early

I'm gonna stand by this and say, yes we could. We probably can toDay too, but we obviously shouldn't.

Also I'm just gonna say that personally I think Lottie's "oh please Sally don't hunt me I'm innocent!!!" looks pretty innocent (especially paired with her Huey vote). I mean I guess she might be a brilliant wolf, but my infamous logic tells me she's unlikely to be one.


edit: xed with everyone on this page

[Thinlómien]

Ugh, I wanted to look at the lynch yesterDay and at Legate's posts but it's closer to 3am (oops) so I'm gonna do that tomorrow.

Still gonna say that the lynch was strangely unanimous. Clearly, a lot of innocents weren't believing Sally, and the wolves felt safe enough to hop in. As has been pointed out, mathematically Sally didn't have a particularly high chance of hitting a wolf. I guess the risk was worth it for the wolves and it was easy to hide in the flurry of innocents. Sally got 10 votes, so in the very least 3/5 of the Sally voters were innocent. Which makes the lynch possibly more difficult to analyse.

I also want to look at those who did not vote for Sally, and if any of them comes off as too sure of Sally's innocence. What a nicer place for a wolf to chill than staying away from a big innocent-on-innocent bandwagon that's bound to get scrutiny the next Day?

Safe to say, there are likely wolves both among those who did and those who did not vote for Sally. I think only closely analysing people's proclaimed reasons to do what they did will tell who's who. Or maybe not that either because I'm getting less and less convinced that werewolf is about logic.


edit: xed with Brinn and Pitch