Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

So the deadline yesterDay sucked. Can't believe the Hunter couldn't find a single person in the whole village more suspicious than a) someone who voted for a wolf the Day before or b) the other major bandwagon option the Day a wolf got lynched......Glad she didn't hunt me, but really sucks for Mac.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So the deadline yesterDay sucked. Can't believe the Hunter couldn't find a single person in the whole village more suspicious than a) someone who voted for a wolf the Day before or b) the other major bandwagon option the Day a wolf got lynched......Glad she didn't hunt me, but really sucks for Mac.

I'm not blaming Sally. It isn't like she did herself in.

[Inziladun]

YesterDay, I thought there was a pretty good chance I'd be on the block. I threw caution to the wind and voted.

Maybe it was easier for me, having voted the same way as Sally Day 2, to have not seen the "suspicion" apparently evident. But that wagon was evil.

The driving force was Lommy.

She started in on Sally early yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Uh, you have something to confess? Are you the next fatalistic wolf à la Mac?

I was put in the "fatalistic" set too. I can't speak for Sally, but having already been suspected before, I was fully prepared to have people gunning for me after voting Mac instead of Hueywolf. I was resigned to repeatedly having to defend myself. I picked up the same vibe from her.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sally -> Macalaure 4

Another one who steered clear of the Huine issue, wondered aloud if she should vote Mac or Lottie. Went for Mac who had more votes of the two at the time when Huine was rapidly gaining more votes. Extremely dubious vote - especially if we take into account that at least to me at this point Huine didn't seem like a "lost case" at all.

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early, and who was given softball suspicion from Huey.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.

She voted for Brinn to save Kit Day 2. "Suspiciously safe"?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I mean, even if Sally is indeed the hunter, don't we want to give her a shot?

Think about it. If I'm right and she's bluffing, we win.

If I'm wrong and she's indeed the hunter, well, then I would trust her to have a faily high chance to take a wolf with her, which is also a pretty good outcome.

(Yeah, I know in the worst case we could lose two innocents but hey, that's the game. If Sally is the hunter let her do her job. I trust her to pick wisely.)

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Why on earth would the hunter send the pick earlier than she has to?

Because she's RL busy, maybe?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay yes good point about the hunter pick.

Who are you "hunting" Sally?

If it had been me, there's no way I'd have said who I'd really picked. I'd have picked a name out of thin air.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You personally like known innocents, I personally like dead wolves, and I'm willing to take risks to get them.

That's one of the wolfiest wolf statements I've seen in a long time.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's take the Sally chance, no weird last minute things please!!!

Says our favorite Cheerleader of Doom.™

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

YesterDay, I thought there was a pretty good chance I'd be on the block. I threw caution to the wind and voted.

Maybe it was easier for me, having voted the same way as Sally Day 2, to have not seen the "suspicion" apparently evident. But that wagon was evil.

The driving force was Lommy.


...


That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

I do agree with this. Lommy definitely drove the vote yesterDay in Sally's direction, and absolutely pushed in favor of lynching a Hunter who didn't want to be lynched and hadn't been around enough to have a suspicion list based on anything other than gut feelings. I also note that Lommy was not one of the people asking for the name of the person Sally was hunting, and didn't try to suggest any names or anything like that. She seemed completely fine with whatever Sally decided - which, given that none of the people Sally suspected are people I think are at all likely to be wolves, I find really concerning. I picked up a bit of a gleeful tone from her during all the chaos. I definitely consider her one of my top suspects at this point.

[Lalaith]

Well at least the baddies are no longer in the majority on the QT.

[Lalaith]

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary.

[Lhunardawen]

[RL]Really sorry for the absence and non-vote yesterDay. I had taken a supposed nap after work and didn’t wake up until after the deadline. [/RL]


It feels hypocritical to analyse these votes when I didn’t put one in.

DAY 3 VOTES (with Day 2, Day 1)

THE Ka -> Sally (Lottie 2, Brinniel 3)
QT -> Brinn (Brinn)
Eönwë -> Sally 2 (Hui 7, Urwen)
Kath -> Inzil (Inzil, G55 2)
Greenie -> Sally 3 (Mac 2, Mac)
Lommy -> Sally 4 (Mac, G55 5)
——HunterSally reveal——
Inzil -> Brinn 2 (Mac 5, G55 3)
Lottie -> Sally 5 (Hui 4, G55 4)
Lalaith -> Sally 6 (Hui 5, no vote)
Legate -> Sally 7 (Hui, Brinn 5)
Shasta -> Sally 8 (Mac 7, Pitch 2)
Brinn -> Sally 9 (Hui 6, G55 7)
Rune -> Inzil 2 (Lottie, Brinn 4)
Boro -> Sally 10 (Mac 6, Pitch)
Pitch -> Eonwe (Hui 3, Brinn 2)
No vote: Lhuna (Lommy, Lhuna)


Based on the voting patterns ALONE, these stand out to me at the moment:

Likely Innocent
Lottie
Cast a decisive Hui vote. Her reactions to being a possible Huntee looked genuinely innocent to me.

Pitch
Cast a decisive Hui vote. He believed sally’s reveal, so his vote for Eonwe shows integrity.


Bad
Eonwe
I still think his vote for Urwen was a throwaway.
I still believe his vote for Hui could be wolf-on-wolf.
He prefaced his vote for sally with

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

I do not understand this at all.

Lommy
I know she had been consistent about suspecting sally yesterDay, but she could be a wolf who knows that sally is likely to target an innocent based on her suspicions, so she boldly challenged her claim and pushed for her lynching. Two birds, one stone.

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

then afterwards saying this

There would come a point where we'd QT Sally as the last possible wolf. But I'm more inclined to think she's a wolf the longer she goes without posting, so I'm more fine with QTing her, I guess.

I don’t follow.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.


Should look more closely
Brinn
Mighty strange how all her votes came in towards the end of a successful bandwagon, even if we don’t count the Day 1 vote to save herself.

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Greenie
Primarily because she has voted for two known innocents so far

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

[RL]Really sorry for the absence and non-vote yesterDay. I had taken a supposed nap after work and didn’t wake up until after the deadline. [/RL]

I didn't make your list?

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this then afterwards saying this I don’t follow.

I'm not sure I do, either.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.

x/d with Boro and Pitch

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.

Interesting. I wonder...but that will have to wait.

My comments to sally were tongue-in-cheek. After she pulled that reveal and left us hanging, until right before the DL I seriously doubted she was the hunter. I was wrong.

All you people looking at Lommy's "blood lust" are hypocrites. Apologies if that's offensive, but 10 people voted for sally. Yes there's a sure thing wolf votes are in there, but you can't tell me that people believed that reveal with how the end of day played out. I mean no offense to sally, we've all been there, but you can't blame an unconvincing reveal on a few people and act like you knew she was the real hunter. Unless you already knew she was the hunter.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

All you people looking at Lommy's "blood lust" are hypocrites. Apologies if that's offensive, but 10 people voted for sally. Yes there's a sure thing wolf votes are in there, but you can't tell me that people believed that reveal with how the end of day played out. I mean no offense to sally, we've all been there, but you can't blame an unconvincing reveal on a few people and act like you knew she was the real hunter. Unless you already knew she was the hunter.

Personally, I cycled through "it's fine, it's fine, she's faking, she's a wolf, there's no way" and "oh no oh no she's the Hunter who is she going to kill????" so fast my head was spinning. Yeah, I was the one in danger, but still, there was no glee whatsoever when I thought about "what if she IS the Hunter?". And I'm pretty sure you can tell, reading my posts, that I was absolutely dreading her killing an innocent. You could tell from Legate's posts that he was frantic, too. The only people who wouldn't be frantic and full of dread and panic would have been the wolves, who had a really good idea of what was about to happen. There were too many unknowns for the villagers to have been comfortable, and when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable. Therefore, the people who did not come across as frantic and uncomfortable? I highly suspect they are wolves.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm pretty sure you can tell, reading my posts, that I was absolutely dreading her killing an innocent. You could tell from Legate's posts that he was frantic, too. The only people who wouldn't be frantic and full of dread and panic would have been the wolves, who had a really good idea of what was about to happen. There were too many unknowns for the villagers to have been comfortable, and when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable. Therefore, the people who did not come across as frantic and uncomfortable? I highly suspect they are wolves.

THIS!!! I mean, yes, on paper it's the Hunter's job to die and (hopefully) take a wolf with them, and sally knew that as well as anybody, so if the Hunter, knowing this, asks you not to lynch them, what do you do?

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this early, and if sally hit another innocent, meh, well, bad luck but not the end of the world. Effectively lynching sally amounted to a free kill for the wolves.

[Pitchwife]

It really sucks to loose Legate - maybe the only player I felt I could trust (although I felt pretty good about Mac too yesterDay).


Zil, when you voted Brinn and invited people to vote you, were you trying to save sally or what? I think it was before her reveal, and your post looked unfinished.

Originally Posted by Zil re Lommy 616

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early, and who was given softball suspicion from Huey.

This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Zil, when you voted Brinn and invited people to vote you, were you trying to save sally or what? I think it was before her reveal, and your post looked unfinished.

I was going to add more, but the boss (my better half) was calling.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

Quite possible. I still think there was at least one wolf on Huey.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was going to add more, but the boss (my better half) was calling.

Out of curiosity, what would you have added?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I still think there was at least one wolf on Huey.

That too.


If there was another wolf (beyond Hui) among those who voted Mac before the Huiwagon, this would have to be Lommy or Greenie; if among the later Mac voters maybe Boro (whom several people had grouped with sally and Zil as top suspects yesterDay but gave a pass), or maybe even Shasta.


(By the way, we have now had two bandwagons against innocents with people voting them because "why would an innocent X act like this?" I think the next person to use this argument may get an automatic vote from me.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Out of curiosity, what would you have added?

Just that I had a better feeling about Mac.

[Boromir88]

After the first 2 days, I guess it was inevitable to foul a lynch up at least once. Let's try not to have another one?

1. Can we trust the QT now? Please. But I swear if they give us Brinn again I'm going to lose it.

2. 3/4ths of you are as suspicious as suspicion can be.

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday.

Edit: crossed since Lottie's post to open.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Are you kidding me? Sally's suspicions were all based on gut feeling alone, and I guess my insisting that I was not a wolf convinced her. But you know what I was thinking all last Night? "Well, there's no way I'll be alive in the Morning. The wolves are going to think I was trying to hint that I was Gifted. They'll definitely kill me toNight." I was very surprised when I saw that I was still alive, and I half thought, "maybe the wolves are going to try to prod a little, see if they can figure out if I was Gifted hinting or not." But I really didn't think anyone was going to be this blatant about it.

(I wasn't, by the way. I am not the Seer, I have zero special information, I was not trying to hint that I was Gifted to Sally yesterDay, I was simply trying to convince her I was innocent, because it seemed horrible to me that we could lose two innocents in one mislynch.)

Originally Posted by Boromir88

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lhuna voted once as a throwaway because she wouldn't be there for the Deadline, once very early for Lommy, and once missed the deadline. She can't be here at the deadline, so she has never posted when it's gotten messy. She can't control that, it isn't suspicious or innocent, it just is.

This post from Boro screams suspicious to me. He joins Lommy at the top of my suspicion list. Like, what even is this.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

Yes, that's what I'm thinking. At this point, I really, really think that Boro was a wolf, and that Lommy and maybe also Greenie pushed Sally and downplayed the suspicion against Boro (neither even mentioned him in the same breath as Sally and Zil, even though he did exactly the same thing).

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

This truly bums me out.

Legate was by far the most innocent looking in my eyes, but I guess that was also the root of his downfall. He seemed to have been generally trusted, or at least not the subject of much suspicion.

I am off to bed and will have a busy day at work tomorrow, but I will se if I can find enough time to take a look at the people suspected by Legate. No matter what I will be here some hours prior to deadline.

[Lalaith]

Lottie

when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable.

Yes... my gut feeling was that most of the people panicking at the end there were bewildered innocents. Rune for example feels innocent to me as a result of DL behaviour. And Legate's reactions - I started feeling a lot better about him. A bit late now of course
But while Boro's accusations of hypocrisy seem a bit harsh I agree we didn't cover ourselves in glory failing to agree to an alternative candidate in time.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This post from Boro screams suspicious to me. He joins Lommy at the top of my suspicion list. Like, what even is this.

24 hours of pent up frustration with the day's events. Fairly quiet and then we have nearly 2 full pages in 30 minutes.

If my math is correct, I'm not the statistics person though, without the Ranger, we have 4 days to lynch a wolf. They've been far too content to sit back and have the gifted reveal themselves.

It's time (mostly I say this to myself) to start shaking their cage. And yesterday's end day did not help matters at all. Point well taken about looking at who was comfortable yesterday and who wasn't. If you are not a wolf, I expected you to be killed because of your previous vote for Huey and exchanges with sally. I'm still not convinced you aren't being a bold wolf openly getting sally to change her pick and not hunt you. But I'm also not convinced you are a wolf.

Trying to get up in some grills and rattle cages.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm still not convinced you aren't being a bold wolf openly getting sally to change her pick and not hunt you. But I'm also not convinced you are a wolf.

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her.

But you would only have known that after her reveal, which was ~45 min to DL, so the time to get a Zilwagon rolling after that was limited. Prior to that, you would only have known that she was not a wolf, so you could have been comfortable with lynching her (and indeed had her in your suspects list) right up until the reveal.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But you would only have known that after her reveal, which was ~45 min to DL, so the time to get a Zilwagon rolling after that was limited. Prior to that, you would only have known that she was not a wolf, so you could have been comfortable with lynching her (and indeed had her in your suspects list) right up until the reveal.

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally". It was possible, and I'm pretty sure it would've worked, too. I didn't make that call because I decided to take the risk and hope Sally was a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have known she wasn't, and I would've known I was likely her target, so I definitely would have committed to Zil as the alternate option.

[Thinlómien]

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.

As for the Legate kill - I'm not surprised at all. He was very widely considered innocent, especially after the Huine lynch. I will look at his posts at some point to look for "seer clues" the wolves might have picked up, but now I'm off to read toDay's discussion so far.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inzil

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early,

I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.

In my experience wolves are more prone to overreact to suspicion or potential suspicion, because they are nervous of getting caught. Again, absolute basic werewolf principle I thought you'd agree on. And again, yes, being jumpy doesn't mean you're automatically a wolf. But again, it makes it more likely because wolves are jumpier on average than innocents.

Originally Posted by Zil

Because she's RL busy, maybe?

Eh, if the claimed hunter hasn't voted yet, then I would assume they haven't sent their pick either. If they're RL busy and have to send their pick early, I would assume they'd also vote early.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

Basically. Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, the whole discussion of my attitude about "Sally the hunter" is pretty theoretical. You have to understand I was 90% sure she was a wolf. 90% of my brain was "I don't trust her, I don't trust her, I don't trust her let's kill her". The remaining 10% was "but ok what if she is actualy the hunter? what then?" and my brain's answer was "well it's just gonna be fun and it would be epic if she stabbed a wolf". I will readily admit that I was arguing for lynching a potential hunter making sense just because I wanted to get Sally lynched because I was convinced she was a wolf, not the hunter, so I kinda twisted my whole logic around that. I see I'm still doing it to a degree...

You don't need to tell me I was wrong about Sally, and that I was stupid, and that I literally pressed my fellow villagers to lynch our hunter. I perhaps ignored whether it's strategically wise because I was too blinded by my conviction that Sally was bluffing. So yes, I shot us in the foot a little, and you can be angry and frustrated about that, but I truly thought I was doing what's best for the village.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I also note that Lommy was not one of the people asking for the name of the person Sally was hunting, and didn't try to suggest any names or anything like that. She seemed completely fine with whatever Sally decided - which, given that none of the people Sally suspected are people I think are at all likely to be wolves, I find really concerning.

Wrong. I was not one of the first people to ask her who she's hunting, because it simply did not cross my mind to do so. However, once the question had been brought up, I seconded it. And yeah, I was fine with whatever Sally was going to pick. I trusted that if she was miraculously the real hunter, she might have a good guess. Also I admit that I also thought "well, if she happens to be the hunter, it's her problem who she picks, not mine". Irresponsible? Maybe a little, yes, but once again I repeat: I thought it was extremely unlikely she actually was the hunter. I certainly did not spend any time speculating who she might hunt if she's the hunter, because a) like I said I did not think she was the hunter in the first place, b) I would not think that the suspicions she voiced on the thread had anything to do with who she's hunting in case she was the actual hunter. Most hunters I've seen don't want to keep their cards on the table like that.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary.

I'm sorry, I can get a bit of tunnel vision in werewolf. Whether I'm right or wrong is about 50-50... At least, with Sally and Mac dead I'm forced to start afresh, and I think I've learned to take a breather when I get tunnel vision.

Originally Posted by Pitch

She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

For the record, I still think it's extremely likely there is a wolf among the late Mac voters - it just wasn't Sally, who I pegged as the most fishy of them. But there is more than one wolf left, so there could be a wolf among the early Mac voters too. Or among the Huine voters. Or among those who didn't vote either. But I thought the late Mac voters were the most likely bunch and thus the best place to start.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim. Besides, later it was brought into the discussion that Sally should tell us who she's hunting. She did not react, even though she seemed to be around. That also seemed dodgy to me. She could have said "I'd rather not tell" or told us a name and maybe given us more to analyse that way because now the people not voting Sally would have been protecting both Sally AND whoever she named. To me, she looked like a wolf caught in the middle of a half baked ploy, unsure how to proceed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this early

I'm gonna stand by this and say, yes we could. We probably can toDay too, but we obviously shouldn't.

Also I'm just gonna say that personally I think Lottie's "oh please Sally don't hunt me I'm innocent!!!" looks pretty innocent (especially paired with her Huey vote). I mean I guess she might be a brilliant wolf, but my infamous logic tells me she's unlikely to be one.


edit: xed with everyone on this page

[Thinlómien]

Ugh, I wanted to look at the lynch yesterDay and at Legate's posts but it's closer to 3am (oops) so I'm gonna do that tomorrow.

Still gonna say that the lynch was strangely unanimous. Clearly, a lot of innocents weren't believing Sally, and the wolves felt safe enough to hop in. As has been pointed out, mathematically Sally didn't have a particularly high chance of hitting a wolf. I guess the risk was worth it for the wolves and it was easy to hide in the flurry of innocents. Sally got 10 votes, so in the very least 3/5 of the Sally voters were innocent. Which makes the lynch possibly more difficult to analyse.

I also want to look at those who did not vote for Sally, and if any of them comes off as too sure of Sally's innocence. What a nicer place for a wolf to chill than staying away from a big innocent-on-innocent bandwagon that's bound to get scrutiny the next Day?

Safe to say, there are likely wolves both among those who did and those who did not vote for Sally. I think only closely analysing people's proclaimed reasons to do what they did will tell who's who. Or maybe not that either because I'm getting less and less convinced that werewolf is about logic.


edit: xed with Brinn and Pitch

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday.

If I was, I'd have just self-voted and left it at that. I had no intention of voting for Sally, and was rather tired of what seemed to be taunting from the QT. I didn't have much hope anyone would follow me, though. Since several had put me on the "eevil" list that Day, I figured a bandwagon would follow. Then, like I told Pitch, my long-suffering mate requested my presence.

x/d with Lottie

[Kath]

What is it with these sudden reveals at the end of a Day?! And the Hunter. It's been a while since I played, but isn't the idea generally to not lynch the Hunter, especially so early on, because of the risk of them taking down an innocent?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

My suspicions haven't changed since my last list, so Zil, Boro, and Sally are my top choices, followed by Lommy and Lalaith.

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

++Sally

Eonwe, what made you choose sally over your other two suspects at the point of voting? sally already had a vote at that point but Inziland Boro were pretty heavily suspected too. I'm particularly interested in this vote because it was before sally's reveal.

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,

Annoyed innocent here or calculated wolf? I think the self-sacrificial attitude does actually make me feel a bit better about him, but then I'm interested to know what he felt about sally, as this did put Brinn at 2 votes while sally already had 4, and at the time he was the only other lynch candidate with votes. Also, voting for sally would have been him actually working to save himself whereas the vote for Brinn was by no means putting himself safe.

Then sally reveals.

Legate seems suspicious of her - who do you claim you are hunting - whereas Pitch seems happy to take it at face value.

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

A very strong reaction from Lommy.

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.

Lottie ok with lynching sally, unless she was sally's pick.

Rune did not want to lynch sally. Nor did Boro.

Legate agreeing with Lommy that not lynching sally would leave a 'what if' cloud over her role.

Lalaith didn't want to vote sally.

Mac was on the fence.

Reading it back over, it was utter chaos by this point. Lottie goes with what she said and votes sally, despite knowing sally was suspicious of her. This pushed sally's vote count high and was risky for Lottie - unless she's a very bold wolf I think this speaks to her innocence. Lottie does, however, plead for sally not to hunt her. Interestingly, sally did heed this and changed to Mac. Doesn't point to Lottie's innocence or guilt either way but apparently she is very persuasive!

Originally Posted by Mac

We're still relatively early in the game, so the chances of a hunter picking an innocent is relatively high and worth the risk for the wolves. It's in the end game that a hunter is very powerful.

I think this sums up my feelings about the issue. sally agrees with this, but still goes for Mac.

Lalaith changes her mind and votes sally - can I ask what caused the change, Lal?

Legate and Shasta both vote sally. Shasta didn't want to lynch the Hunter in the earlier discussion, so I'm assuming his vote was because he was convinced she wasn't the Hunter.

Brinn ... I didn't spot her opinion on sally earlier. What were your thoughts, Brinn?

Rune sticks to his not-lynching-the-Hunter guns and votes Inzil.

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.

Mac votes Greenie - well, he had suspected her all day and the decision was made.

Pitch, who had seemed to believe sally straight away, votes Eonwe. Pitch, what was it that had you so convinced?

sally did not help herself, that much is certain. RL can't be helped but this was nuts. Lottie and Lalaith seemed to be reacting to the situation as it presented, whereas Shasta, Lommy and Legate seemed convinced sally was either evil or that lynching the Hunter would be of more benefit than leaving them alive. I still think the theory was wrong, but we can see from Legate's role that that doesn't automatically equal wolf.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally". It was possible, and I'm pretty sure it would've worked, too. I didn't make that call because I decided to take the risk and hope Sally was a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have known she wasn't, and I would've known I was likely her target, so I definitely would have committed to Zil as the alternate option.

Yeah, Lottie is feeling innocent to me here. A lot of names were in the mix as alternative candidates yesterDay but no one pushed forward with a vote. We now know sally was the Hunter and she had Mac and Lottie as her top suspects. We now know Mac is innocent and I'm pretty confident with Lottie being innocent, so I can see why the wolves didn't want to push anyone else forward.