Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. )

Zil's playful '-if I'm the main topic of conversation' quip reminded me of what we saw of Mac repeatedly yesterDay referring to himself as being the main target of suspicion based on bias from Rikae's bait post and then trying to jokingly/nervously skirt from it. Then we see Sally do similarly toDay, but to most if not all of her interactions with suspicion from other players.
I know Sally has acted this way in the past, but I haven't seen this from Zil over the past two Days at all. Not typical of their responses, so it seemed as if they were trying to remind and stoke suspicion and I didn't understand why.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

A valid thought to consider.

Legate votes Hui - first vote

(Mac posts twice during this time span of 13 minutes between Legate and Hui's individual posts - reading over Hui's posts while he read his raises his blood pressure and a final thoughts list with Hui in danger)

Hui votes Mac - Third vote

In their vote-post, we get that they are aware of scrutiny based upon them flip-flopping, generalizations, etc. Acceptance of scrutiny and a promise to follow up toMorrow to respond to accusations.

They conclude with this:

Originally Posted by Hui

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts)

Tone wise, it comes across that Hui was aware that suspicion against him was beginning to roll, but they choose to try and play calm and collected to see how it goes (almost like an insurance plan in case it doesn't and Hui assumes when players wonder why the next Day, they'll have a fairly safe leg to stand on).

Hui's closing words sound like a soft defense, but ultimately non-committal. He won't bite back, doesn't want to appear indignant or that his Mac vote is out of spite towards Mac's frustration with him. Yet, being Mac's 3rd vote, it's pretty safe in the line up and does come across as exactly orchestrated to be out of spite.

If Hui was a more experienced wolf, I'd begin to wonder why they joined a forming bandwagon at a fairly safe point with that tone in their post, but looking back I don't see it being one out of experience more of they knew they were caught and based on their previous statements and 'hunches' Mac was the only vote they had to appear somewhat expected and possibly nudge the Macwagon if they survived that day.

Does it absolutely point at Mac's innocence? Not entirely, Hui could still be going in step as the back-up plan if others weren't working out. It does however point that Hui was playing rather typical to his 'hedging all bets' in previous posts and was tone-wise more unsure of themselves. No one wants to be voted off, even if they're a wolf and the reluctance shows.

[Inziladun]

Mac is still looking better to me. Maybe it's because they seem to understand where I was coming from earlier.

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it?

Originally Posted by Lottie

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie,

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it?

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

Lommy, stop sounding sensible after I just figured out why you were pinging me, thanks. :P

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

Thanks! I somehow got that one and your list all mixed up. I've taken a look at both, and you both do suspect Sally and Zil more than Boro, but I think it caught my attention more because I noticed it a couple of times without realizing it was different people saying it. Still something to take a look at if Boro ends up being an Infector, but less significant, since I don't know that two wolves would both decide to try to soften the suspicion on Boro in the same way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back, a few remarks...

I liked Kath's post (#685) where she analysed the whole "let's talk about Kit" stuff yesterDay, and kinda find myself agreeing with most of the stuff she says there. It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

Also agree that Lhuna looks worse in that discussion and Pitch looks a tiny bit better (but I also have overall a bit better feeling about him. It is true that he DID keep the discussion going). And:

Originally Posted by Kath

Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?

Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?

Otherwise, Boro's posting continues to puzzle me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.

That's just a really weird reasoning to me, but it can hardly be argued with as suspicious if it's genuine - however, if not, then it was an attempt to communicate with the QT. Anyways, that can't be decided now, but my previously raised eyebrow remains raised.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.

Horrible excuses. I mean yes, I see the sentiment, but... Huey had been around during the Day, and there were enough posts. A quiet player might make two posts per Day. Would you hesitate to lynch them? It's excuses.

On another note, I am glad that someone also looked at Greenie, among other things. She is often a very good Wolf who can well slide under the radar. I think Mac brought up two good points here:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.

There are a couple of new posts that I haven't finished reading by the time I'm posting this, but I wanted to get this out of the way and again not create an infinite scroll. I'll see if there's anything I would like to remark on. (I saw Shasta making some generally good points, just on the first glance.)

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

That was my thought yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?

At that point I was still struggling to make heads or tails of the situation. I was quite baffled to see Kit alive in the Morning after her outburst to G55, so I wondered whether she could possibly be a wolf preparing a fake reveal (but why would she, at this early point?). When I asked this question I was mostly ready to believe her but also trying to see if, on the off-chance she was fake, I could provoke a slip (like, I dunno, claiming she had protected herself when the rules say she can't, something like that).

I still find it hard to believe that none of the five wolves added up 1+1 about Kit in N2 - I've got to give this to Zil and disagree with Shasta here. I mean, but for Hui and deceased Urwen all in this village are WW veterans, so whoever the wolves are, they would know to look for this kind of thing. So I keep asking myself, why was killing Rikae so important that they'd let a probable Ranger live?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm biased here, obviously, but I really don't think my post had the merit of "the single most suspicious thing". Also, "the single most suspicious thing" clashes quite a bit with "maybe flimsy". If what I did was so suspicious, then why call the suspicion flimsy in the same sentence??

You’re forgetting it was Day 1. I don’t know about you, but at least for me, it’s entirely possible for a lead to be relatively flimsy but still the single most suspicious thing you see during Day 1.

Originally Posted by Mac

Incorrect. This is by the time I got to make that list. I turned on him right after he made his post linking me and Inzil. He made several posts, acknowledging my suspicion in one, between that and his vote.

If I understand you right, and remember right, I think this is down to me not writing clearly – the “he” in that quote referred to you, not Huin. As in, your suspicion of Huin came after you had already voted for Lommy so you couldn’t act on it whether you’d have wanted to or not. (Please poke me again if that’s wrong too though!)

Originally Posted by Legate

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.

What can I say? Sally and Inzil both cast votes that look like they could have been motivated by trying to save Huin, both bring this up themselves in a fairly shifty way, and neither of their interactions with Huin contradicts a read of them as fellow wolves. Sally didn’t interact with Huin at all and has played generally safe and uncontroversial, while Inzil brought up an obvious Ranger slip, and was suspected by Huin on both days in a way that would just pass for safe wolf-on-wolf. I’d say both have fairly strong cases against them, so I’m not surprised if they are “pretty much universally suspected”.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up.

The best part about this was, I sat there reading and rereading that quote trying to figure out when I wrote it. Like, I didn't immediately realise I hadn't. Should I be worried?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The thing that struck me as weird was that Greenie put Sally and Zil as her top suspects, but didn't include Boro in that group - she put him two groups up, suspicion-wise, saying:

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Now obviously you can trust or suspect people for different reasons, you don't have to lump people together just because they voted similarly, but I do think it's eyebrow-raising to suspect two people for doing something but not really suspect the third person to do that same thing. She mentions that the vote makes her 'wary', but doesn't really suspect him, which could be soft wolf-on-wolf. I could see them being a wolf pair - if one of them ends up being guilty, I would definitely want to look at the other, as well.

Note: Quoted post is Lommy's, NOT Greenie's.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If the wolves thought Kit was the Ranger from her disbelief of G55 they'd just kill her. No reason to bring it up in thread. I don't find Inzil suspicious for that - it's a Cobbler move, but we've already dealt with that problem.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally springs to mind immediately. Her attitude of "you're wrong but fair enough" strikes me as... I dunno, "hail fellow well met?" Too easy.

Lommy is back on my radar for reasons unrelated to her vote - I don't like her classification of me during QT yesterday as "not sticking my neck out" when in fact up until the Eonwe vote, second to last, I was making my vote more and more important by not using it, with the vote as tied as it was. Feels like intentional misrepresentation.

Eonwe would be a cold wolf indeed to put the final nail in Huin's coffin when he could have done the same to Mac, although it's worth a look to see if he could have plausibly done so with regard to his previous suspicions. Not off my radar completely, but I have no interest in going there today.

[Thinlómien]

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Boro88

In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it.

Wolves could have thought the same thing though, whether we sit on our hands or not. If we 'offer' them a bulk of information they can still decide to throw out a vote that goes against any conclusive reasoning we've made for the sake of just chaos.
I just don't see us gleaning any major pearls of wisdom by waiting for the QT vote.

Are you trying to suggest that we go the 'fake-vote' route, throw a lot of information around our choices early on when their DL comes and then at DL vote completely different as some 'gotcha'?
A reminder that who started the fake-vote thing is sitting in the QT and is aware of it.

If so, then my hat's off to you for playing rather in character to your namesake by suggesting we try to use their tools against them.