The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum


Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page

Go Back   The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum > Middle-Earth Fun and Games > Middle-earth Mirth
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-05-2020, 02:37 PM   #1
Kitanna
Child of the West
 
Kitanna's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
Kitanna is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kitanna is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Probably not going to get to Rikae before I need to vote, so I'm going to look at G55 since I already suspected her.
Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!
You're a monster for suggesting it. :P
Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.
Here's the start of the fake vote exchange.
And for the sake of getting these two thoguhts in one place, here's Legate's response.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!
And here's Pitch putting it on Legate
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*
In her next post G55 distances herself from her own idea.
Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.
In reading these all back to back without focusing much on other posts, I do find the exchange more bantering initiallty then I did at first. G55 throws an idea out without much gusto. Legate's response reads more excited player latching onto a new idea. Pitch looks to be the one taking it more seriously than the other two. That is until G55 puts distance between herself and the idea.
In fact all of her posts, that I took to be banter, "day 1 no lynch," she comes quick to the defense of. "Come on, guys, I wasn't advocating that." She's trying to get as far away as possible.
Ugh, I'm out of time to do this.
Based on my skimming and intial reactions, my gut says G55 or Pitch. However, I didn't get enough of their later posts to feel super comfortable, not when Rikae had a lot of back and forth with G55. But I need to vote, so
++Pitchwife
Of the three original posters to the fake vote idea, Pitch seemed to be laying bait for the other two. He didn't originate the idea, but he did seem to want to trap Legate into looking guilty. And then his vote for Brinn when she was gaining a lot of trajection and already received one vote.
__________________
"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

Last edited by Kitanna; 05-05-2020 at 02:38 PM. Reason: cross posted with a bunch of people since my last post
Kitanna is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 02:50 PM   #2
Huinesoron
Overshadowed Eagle
 
Huinesoron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: The north-west of the Old World, east of the Sea
Posts: 3,987
Huinesoron is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Huinesoron is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote
I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other.
Yeah; this is why I went with 'if necessary', and why I've held my vote longer than I intended. A wolf/wolf split vote lynching an innocent would be a nightmare!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.
Possible terminology difference? I originally used 'Brinn-wagon' to mean the sudden suspicion of her, which came from a lot more people. I've since switched to meaning something like 'the possibly impending lynch because of the above'. I know the actual votes cast are low, don't worry.

The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:

++GALADRIEL55

hS
Huinesoron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 02:53 PM   #3
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
Legate of Amon Lanc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:
I have a very, very urgent feeling that if I have ever seen a Wolf saving a fellow Wolf from a bandwagon, this might just be it. (Would it be so blatant? But in this big village, I guess every Day counts!)
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories
Legate of Amon Lanc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 02:55 PM   #4
Nogrod
Flame of the Ainulindalë
 
Nogrod's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
Send a message via MSN to Nogrod
5 minute update

Day1 - votes


Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel 4
Lommy -> G55 5
Huines -> G55 6
Legate -> Brinn 5
Macalaure -> Brinn 6
Brinniel -> G55 7
__________________
Upon the hearth the fire is red
Beneath the roof there is a bed;
But not yet weary are our feet...
Nogrod is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 02:58 PM   #5
Huinesoron
Overshadowed Eagle
 
Huinesoron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: The north-west of the Old World, east of the Sea
Posts: 3,987
Huinesoron is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Huinesoron is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
I have a very, very urgent feeling that if I have ever seen a Wolf saving a fellow Wolf from a bandwagon, this might just be it. (Would it be so blatant? But in this big village, I guess every Day counts!)
What you're seeing is my word use breaking down because I spent ten mi utes trying to get this post typed on my phone and then realised the time. /After/ repeatedly updating the tallies at the end; it was 3/3/4 when I started!

I'm really suspicious of the let's lynch Brinn movement; I think there's a wolf deep inside it. As I said a few posts back, I'd rather have gone Pitch, but voted G55 as far more likely than Brinn.

hS
Huinesoron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 02:59 PM   #6
Huinesoron
Overshadowed Eagle
 
Huinesoron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: The north-west of the Old World, east of the Sea
Posts: 3,987
Huinesoron is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Huinesoron is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Oh heck just saw.
Huinesoron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 02:59 PM   #7
Loslote
The Werewolf's Companion
 
Loslote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
Loslote is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Loslote is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Loslote is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Vote Brinn if you can. Anyone who was here and didn't vote Brinn should be considered very suspicious toMorrow.
__________________
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night.
Double Fenris

Last edited by Loslote; 05-05-2020 at 03:00 PM. Reason: xed with a bunch
Loslote is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 03:01 PM   #8
Galadriel55
Blossom of Dwimordene
 
Galadriel55's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,541
Galadriel55 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Galadriel55 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Galadriel55 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Galadriel55 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
So is this my last post? Can I just say, it's been an absolute pleasure.

Edit: sorry, xed with the DL and the mod.
__________________
You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera
Galadriel55 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 03:46 AM   #9
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
Legate of Amon Lanc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:
I have a very, very urgent feeling that if I have ever seen a Wolf saving a fellow Wolf from a bandwagon, this might just be it. (Would it be so blatant? But in this big village, I guess every Day counts!)
What you're seeing is my word use breaking down because I spent ten mi utes trying to get this post typed on my phone and then realised the time. /After/ repeatedly updating the tallies at the end; it was 3/3/4 when I started!

I'm really suspicious of the let's lynch Brinn movement; I think there's a wolf deep inside it. As I said a few posts back, I'd rather have gone Pitch, but voted G55 as far more likely than Brinn.

hS
Just stumbled upon this, among other things. I'm wondering whether I should just return to my early hunch and scrutinise Brinn further. (Her recent posts have been better, but I mean, she's a good Wolf player, and often if she manages to get suspected early and manages to get off the hook, she's able to maintain her presence for long.) But that would also mean that the WWs would have been really hard pressed in this village - having very strong bandwagons against one both Days! But of course it's possible.

As a sidenote, "I think there's a wolf deep inside it" also sounds like it could be the case of a Wolf randomly telling the truth. (If we took it literally, it would have to be Pitch, Ka or Rune, who had participated in the Brinnwagon before Hui said this. But it could also have been just a second-hand way to potentially use against Rikae - the one who started the Brinnwagon and is now known innocent - later, if it was needed.)
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories
Legate of Amon Lanc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 04:55 AM   #10
Thinlómien
Shady She-Penguin
 
Thinlómien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
Catching up and commenting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil
Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.
Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Eönwë - I did consider it very likely that there isn't much wolf-on-wolf in the Huinewagon, but I wasn't as adamant about it as you claim. And if you read my subsequent post where I analysed the votes, I actually do point out which Huine votes look the most wolf-on-wolf to me (Brinn and especially Lalaith). That being said, I absolutely stand with my assesment that when we have evidence of people having voted in way that prevents a wolf lynch (again, slightly dependent on Mac's role though), I don't think we should focus on those who did the opposite. I'm not for giving the Huine voters a pass idefinitely, but I am giving them a pass for toDay. And those whose vote was particularly unwolfily placed, probably for a few more Days than that. I would advise you to do the same. There are a lot of people in this village and to a degree, you've got to pick who you focus on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Does that satisfy you, Lommy?
Hm. I guess. It was still a rather weird comment without a context.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hui
(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)
As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus.
I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.
Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Just overall: it's very nice how some people say "there are WWs unlikely to be in first half of Huiwagon" (Lottie) or equally dogmatically "there are WWs likely to be in the first half of Huiwagon" (Eönwë) or "there has to be a Wolf among Huiwagon" (Lommy) - point is, there doesn't have to be anything anywhere, still, in this big village.
I didn't say that! My statement of this type was "there has to be a wolf among the people who vote Mac after Hui became a serious lynch candidate" and I do stand behind that. (I mean of course nothing is certain, but I'm like 99% certain and that's enough for me.)


xed with 2 Zils
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer
Blood is running deep, some things never sleep
Double Fenris
Thinlómien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 12:30 PM   #11
THE Ka
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
 
THE Ka's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: As with the flygja
Posts: 1,403
THE Ka is a guest at the Prancing Pony.THE Ka is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Send a message via MSN to THE Ka
[RL] Apologise in advance if this is rushed, at 8:30 this morning we got a call that a family member had passed early in the morning. Given many of the quarantine in place rules for where we live and restricted air travel, we’re at a loss for what to do. My mind isn’t in a great place right now, but I will still finish today. Just may not be as involved the next few days. I have let Nogrod know and I will try not to hinder this game for anyone.[/RL]

If just by repeated mention that it’s now lodged in my mind, I now have a suspicion of Zil. If I’m going to examine Zil I need to admit that I haven’t looked at Sally much at all. Which could be from timing differences and just play style. Regardless, just for this reason I want to examine her more.


Day one vote – late to DL due to RL needs (understandable)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Because I can't catch up in time and I'll do anything to save the maybe ranger.
Believes G55’s claim? Kit had just given a massive hint to villagers about her role and thrown a lot of proof onto the G55-cobbler fire.

Zil later gives similar speculation on the claim, even speaks with Kit about it Day 2. Is along with others asked why they keep bringing it up despite the risk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil
I feel for this poor beaten horse, but one last thing. On the last summa, ask what benefit a wolfly me would get from putting Kit on the spot? I would know she wasn't a wolf. She would probably be the Ranger or Seer. Why not sit back and wait for someone else to bring it up, and get suspected for it (worked splendidly).
Compared to what I’m seeing with Sally, this arguably more truth to Zil’s actions. As others had pointed out, I had even interacted with Zil about their single-mindedness about Kit’s role. Also as I’d stated before yesterday to Lottie, I was baffled why you’d bring it up with such interest. Especially to the one who keeps trying to bring it to the spotlight, if they were a wolf this is an insane level of risk. Casually point it out once? Sure, just to show face and participate. Repeatedly? It’s more believable to me that a worried and over-analytical villager would fall for bringing it up a lot than a wolf who wants to put it into player’s minds but not leave a trail back to themselves.
Zil has proverbially beat us over the head with it and when confronted at least has offered an answer, even if it’s not as in depth as some of us would prefer.

In contrast on the wolfish scale, I’m not seeing this from Sally. It’s a lot of ducking and diving and casual comments that try to show involvement or rehash what others have said (such as post #409 and #538 Day 2), but almost mimic what happened to Mac yesterDay now being done toDay.

Regardless of not really interacting with Hui at all, she places her votes in a way that appear rather calculated to whatever trend in voting is most opportune. In comparison to Zil, you arguably don’t see this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.
Rather easy to say and the voting pattern supports this. Doesn’t make me overtly less assured of any innocence than compared to Zil’s replies about his Kit questioning if we’re going on who is more ‘wolfish’.

Thought I’d never admit it given my suspicion of them the last two game Days, but I have similar misgivings as Brinn does in post #647 about Sally’s casual steering away of attention to Mac votes like it was a plan that didn’t work out great and they’d rather everyone doubt it with perhaps other more vocal wolves taking the charge to focus on Hui’s actions and comments.

To be honest if this is the way of the winds blowing between these two, as I wondered in post #662 to Sally and Zil, I’d rather vote for Sally if anything to see how fellow packmates will consolidate. Truth aside, because we have no iron clad proof, Sally at the end of yesterDay and throughout toDay has garnered more open suspicion to me than Zil.

Maybe I’m just more in my feelings today with everything going on, more than I ever like trusting emotion, but Sally in her replies acts almost as if duping delight and that they’re assured safety compared to the suspicion thrown at Zil, Greenie, or others.


++Sally


I’d like more time to go on, but I haven’t had a chance to read any new posts since 9AM my time and the way things are going, I’m not going to be able to catch up in a way that does justice to later arguments. Rather get my vote out than missing DL. See all of you later.
__________________
Vinur, vinur skilur tú meg? Veitst tú ongan loyniveg?
Hevur tú reikađ líka sum eg,
í endaleysu tokuni?
THE Ka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 12:56 PM   #12
Eönwë
Flame Imperishable
 
Eönwë's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Eönwë - I did consider it very likely that there isn't much wolf-on-wolf in the Huinewagon, but I wasn't as adamant about it as you claim. And if you read my subsequent post where I analysed the votes, I actually do point out which Huine votes look the most wolf-on-wolf to me (Brinn and especially Lalaith). That being said, I absolutely stand with my assesment that when we have evidence of people having voted in way that prevents a wolf lynch (again, slightly dependent on Mac's role though), I don't think we should focus on those who did the opposite. I'm not for giving the Huine voters a pass idefinitely, but I am giving them a pass for toDay. And those whose vote was particularly unwolfily placed, probably for a few more Days than that. I would advise you to do the same. There are a lot of people in this village and to a degree, you've got to pick who you focus on.
Maybe I made it sounds slightly stronger than it was, but this does seem pretty strong:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
I don't really see basically any reason for a wolf to vote Huin (except possibly something like the second vote if it looked like it wouldn't gain momentum? I need to have a better look how did it actually go) - I mean it would have been an absolutely unnecessary sacrifice from their pov. Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.
And my point wasn't that you never considered the others, only that in your first post of the Day you made it sound very unlikely. And your post was the third of the Day, so it has a strong impact on the direction of the Day's conversation.
__________________
Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
Eönwë is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 04:58 AM   #13
Lalaith
Blithe Spirit
 
Lalaith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
Lalaith is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Lalaith is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
So, I pondered in the night that one thing this game has highlighted, is that both innocents and wolves can slip up.
Kit's late-night blurt at G55's false ranger reveal, and then (which most of us failed to spot) Huey's wolf email slip...

I've been thinking Emails With Wolves sounds like quite a low-key sequel to Dances with Wolves...

Brinn:

Quote:
Least suspicious votes of the Hui voters are Legate and Pitchwife. They were earlier and really got the ball rolling. Eonwe or Lalaith could possibly be wolf-on-wolf votes if they thought he was not worth saving. I'm somewhere in between the two on Lottie.
Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?
__________________
Out went the candle, and we were left darkling
Lalaith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 05:03 AM   #14
Lalaith
Blithe Spirit
 
Lalaith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
Lalaith is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Lalaith is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...
__________________
Out went the candle, and we were left darkling
Lalaith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 05:54 AM   #15
Kath
Everlasting Whiteness
 
Kath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams
Posts: 4,533
Kath is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kath is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kath is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Send a message via MSN to Kath
Well, swings and roundabouts there. Yay for a wolf for the lynch but boo for the loss of the Ranger.

For me, the conversation around Kit remains one of the most suspicious things to have come from yesterDay. If something suggests a player is Gifted, which Kit's reaction to G55's reveal so did, I can't see the sense in drawing attention to it for any other reason than to sow doubt and confusion.

That's why I voted Inzil yesterDay and a close second would have been Lhuna as they seemed to be the ringleaders in the discussion.

I've gone back and looked at it in a bit more detail today and a few other names popped up amidst the discussion.

Inzil is the first to mention it and does so very early on, it's why he stuck out at the ringleader to me. Everybody ignores it. It's doesn't come up again until the next page when Shasta appears.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.
Saw it, nodded, moved on. Assumed everyone was in the same boat here. No alarm bells rang for me at this as it felt like he was brushing past it. On the flip side, you could argue that this is actually a way of bringing it back up while seeming not to. It was the only thing in the post so it stuck out on its own. It didn't read that way to me though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eonwe
I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).
This then brings the subject up again. I didn't really see this yesterDay, or at least I saw this and just sort of dismissed it because I was assuming Kit was a Gifted and hadn't seen anything from Shasta that made me worry. Interesting that its almost said to force a focus on Brinn rather than the two people he's actually suggesting might be wolves though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.
This was in reply to Inzil and I really didn't like this either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I third this. [Zil, my eyebrow raised at you earlier was me doubting you should have drawn attention to it, but it's out in the open now anyway.] It would have been very bold of a wolf to react this way to a gifted reveal, but it would have been very bold of an innocent too.
This was my thinking on the matter. Given Inzil and Lhuna had picked up conversation at this point, Pitch adding on to it wasn't great, but he was giving an opposing side to the argument.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?
This was the post that really made me suspicious. Because yes it could. In pages of analysis at this point, only 5 posts had mentioned it, one of which was Inzil's first one bringing it up and two more were in response to that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kit
Second, I was just going to ignore Inzil and hope no one else brought it up. But I knew G55 was a Liar McLiarFace with her pants set ablaze.
Kit responds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
But seriously, Kit, if that is so, how are you alive? Another framing attempt?
Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
How? As an ordo your certainty can only be asymptotic to 100% AT BEST. But I didn't think you would be so careless? flippant? bold? as to post that if you 100% knew for sure, if you get my meaning. Hence my reasoning in circles.

Edit: Or as a wolf, for that matter
This is what put Lhuna a very close second for my vote yesterDay. Kit had explained the reason for her admittedly not sensible outburst and this was unnecessary.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
That's what I can't fathom. Does it give Rikae-as-possible-Seer more weight? Or could it point to a very bold Kitwolf?
Now honestly if Kit had been a wolf and had chosen to post herself laughing at G55 pretending to be the Ranger at a point when G55 could actually still have been saved from the lynch by the last few people voting elsewhere ... well quite frankly she'd have deserved a medal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Not so much pressing her for information as loudly wondering how she's alive and if she has anything to say about it.
Which she did. It should have been dropped before this point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
OK, I must say this kind of makes sense, or at least I'm inclined to believe Kit for now. It would really make no sense for a wolf to stick their neck out like that, because
if G55 died as the Ranger, she would come under fire the next Day, and
if G55 died as an ordo (or cobbler), we'd question how Kit could have known that, as we do now.
Why would she needlessly put herself into this predicament?

Anyway, I move we leave Kit alone for now. Let's see how long the wolves can afford to let a Ranger live.
Let's leave Kit alone now that everyone's helpfully had a chat about exactly which Gifted she might be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
I brought it up because I wanted to know why she would say that, and I thought it impossible the Wolves had not already been well aware of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
My thinking was more along the lines of she might either know who the Ranger is, or be unable to commit suicide at Night. But I agree with moving on for now.
And this is why I really didn't like these two yesterDay. They KEPT bringing it back up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
Also, IF Kit is the genuine ranger and the wolves left her alive in order to frame her (and because they prioritised possibly-seerish Rikae), they would want to make sure to bring the topic up, right? So I think my eyebrow actually stands.
Pitch's responses are always in reply to something else, and so they feel less like trying to keep the subject going, but they do actually manage to do just that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Sorry guys. But you are both suspicious as Morgoth wearing a tutu under the Two Trees. When you mentioned it first, fine. When you clarified that you wouldn't have talked about it if it didn't seem clear that it was "out in the open" anyway, fine. But when you continued battering it even after Kit answered you, I was like, what in the name of all the sons of Fëanor?!?
This is in regards to Inzil and Pitch. I agree, but I would have had Lhuna's name in there as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.
Now on first glance this seems sensible, but I don't like this plea to the Real Ranger. Just ... obviously they wouldn't come forward.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
I had (and have) no intention of voting for her. It just made no sense that Wolves would have let her alone.
If you don't actually think she's suspicious I do think that the conversation could have been avoided then. If she had still been alive toDay I'd have maybe understood it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eonwe
I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.
Interesting backtrack on his post from earlier. While also being incredibly non-commital.

A post of Rune's pointed out something I'd then missed from Eonwe:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eonwe
Kitanna - Not sure what to think of her now, but I haven't taken her off the hook completely.
He had her down as a possible vote candidate.

Then the voting/end of Day happened and wow that was a whirlwind. I only saw it all after the fact and it looked like posts were coming every few seconds! Eonwe or Shasta were down as the deciding vote. Ended up being Eonwe.

So Inzil I still don't like for the same reasons as yesterDay, Lhuna as well, and Eonwe is worrying me now that I've had more time to look at what was going on.

I will have crossed since 682 if there are more posts as I went bolding.
__________________
“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”
Kath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 06:03 AM   #16
Lalaith
Blithe Spirit
 
Lalaith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
Lalaith is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Lalaith is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post


Now honestly if Kit had been a wolf and had chosen to post herself laughing at G55 pretending to be the Ranger at a point when G55 could actually still have been saved from the lynch by the last few people voting elsewhere ... well quite frankly she'd have deserved a medal.


Which she did. It should have been dropped before this point.


Let's leave Kit alone now that everyone's helpfully had a chat about exactly which Gifted she might be.




And this is why I really didn't like these two yesterDay. They KEPT bringing it back up.


Pitch's responses are always in reply to something else, and so they feel less like trying to keep the subject going, but they do actually manage to do just that.


This is in regards to Inzil and Pitch. I agree, but I would have had Lhuna's name in there as well.


Now on first glance this seems sensible, but I don't like this plea to the Real Ranger. Just ... obviously they wouldn't come forward.


If you don't actually think she's suspicious I do think that the conversation could have been avoided then. If she had still been alive toDay I'd have maybe understood it.


Interesting backtrack on his post from earlier. While also being incredibly non-commital.

A post of Rune's pointed out something I'd then missed from Eonwe:

He had her down as a possible vote candidate.

Then the voting/end of Day happened and wow that was a whirlwind. I only saw it all after the fact and it looked like posts were coming every few seconds! Eonwe or Shasta were down as the deciding vote. Ended up being Eonwe.

So Inzil I still don't like for the same reasons as yesterDay, Lhuna as well, and Eonwe is worrying me now that I've had more time to look at what was going on.

I will have crossed since 682 if there are more posts as I went bolding.

Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought.
__________________
Out went the candle, and we were left darkling
Lalaith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 12:19 AM   #17
Eönwë
Flame Imperishable
 
Eönwë's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
So... it looks like despite that scare at the end there (and as I was reading through hours later when I finally had time, I did panic a bit when reading G55's reveal), the lynch could've gone worse.

First, about my vote: there's not much more to say other than that I was on very limited time and had only managed to catch up to post #212, which was the most recent post when I arrived (as mentioned in my post). I did do a refresh just to see votes before making my final choice, but at that point we were still on page 6 and no-one had more than 2 votes so it was all still open (and I really didn't have time to look to see if I'd x-posted or not).
__________________
Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
Eönwë is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 12:19 AM   #18
Eönwë
Flame Imperishable
 
Eönwë's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Eönwë is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Now, to business:

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:
  1. She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
  2. She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
  3. She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.
Given that she's the Cobbler whose aim to sow confusion and discord, unless anyone has any specific thoughts, I'm not sure how much it's worth thinking about this (and potentially wasting time doing what she wants, which is getting confused about her actions) any further, but I just wanted to put this out there. Also important to note that she did not know any more than us, so her suspicions (or lack thereof) only hold slightly more weight than others because we know that she doesn't know any more than the rest of us.
__________________
Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
Eönwë is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 02:00 AM   #19
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Boro: Early on he's a bit of an oddball, but that doesn't point either way. Spends plenty of time posting about player style. In post #113, he fake-votes Legate for picking up on the fake-vote idea from G55. Does anyone see irony in that? He ends up actually voting Pitchwife for flip-flopping between G55 and Legate. ToDay he announces me as his primary suspect in post #332 without stating why, then states he's going to focus on possible suspects based on my guilt.

Impression: I actually find his vote reasoning for Pitch rather flimsy. Yes, Pitch was a little indecisive, but I don't think enough to merit a vote. And then there's toDay. I just don't understand the sense in looking at other players with the presumption of another unknown player's guilt without considering alternatives.

---

Legate: Picks up on G55's fake vote idea which gathers plenty of attention. He begins to suspect Kit for her comments on Lhuna, then builds on suspicion when she switches her suspicion to him in post #88. He's unsure about me, but votes me over Kit because she's not in the running and my death could be revealing.

Impression: His early comments of the Day could be a bold wolf, but I'm more inclined to think not. I don't like his vote, but it is not necessarily suspicious since he didn't want to spread out the vote and seemed least certain about me among those in the running.

---

Lommy: In post #144, she suggests G55 could be the cobbler. She finds Pitch grasping at straws, Hui suspicious for his suspicion of her (that it seems fabricated), and Boro is acting odd. At post #150, her fake vote goes to Boro for shying away from confrontation and not giving normal vibes. In post #203, she thinks G55 looks bad in her confrontation with Rikae and later votes her. ToDay, she further explained her vote, stating she preferred lynching G55 over me.

Impression: My opinion of Lommy hasn't changed either. She still appears genuine to me. Her suspicion of Boro was consistent and in my opinion, not too much out there. She didn't vote him, but clearly that was due to not wanting to spread the votes.

---

Hui: Starts to suspect Lommy based on her comments about Day 1, stating that it gave "finding a wolf toDay is impossible, so why bother trying" vibes. There's some further exchanges that continue that suspicion. In post #93, he's wary of Mac suspicions, and backs off Lommy slightly. By post #183 Lommy is back on the suspect list. He points out the suspicion against me has come out of nowhere and then votes G55 to avoid me getting lynched (thanks) and thinks a wolf is behind the bandwagon.

Impression: I don't agree with his Lommy suspicions, but I do like his concern about the bandwagon against me - however, that does not spell innocence. I could see a wolf trying to support an innocent to gain her trust. Hui does a lot of summaries of previous posts which appears helpful, but could also be a facade should he be a wolf.

---

Mac: In post #111, he thinks there's too much focus on LGP and the Day could end up a race between them. He started to pick up on my comments and suspect them, which is why he votes me. ToDay he's been talking about theories of Rikae as the Night kill and thinks it could be way to frame him.

Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason.

---

Rune: In post #117, he's most worried about G55 for her fake vote idea then turning it back on Legate. For post #134, he says he's likely to vote Eonwe for being non-committal or Kit for her reaction to Lhuna. #221, he acknowledges there's a building case against me and then agrees with it. He states he'd prefer to vote Eonwe, but votes for me because I'm the better lynch option over G55.

Impression: I don't really agree with his reasons for suspecting Eonwe and Kit - they seem weak. As for his suspicion of me, there's nothing unusual in itself about Rune suspecting me...he always does. But the way he piggybacks on the case against me is suspicious. Plus, what happened to his concerns about G55? They seem to have disappeared unless I'm missing something.

More to come.

P.S. I'm just posting right now and haven't had time to read anything new since #339. And I probably won't read anything til morning.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 02:45 AM   #20
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Greenie: In post #135, she has concerns about the Hui/Lommy exchange. Her summary post is a bit non-committal, but I guess not too unusual at this stage. Post #178, she is wishy-washy about G55 in the Rikae exchange. In #206, she voices concerns about Mac's post on me feeling that his thought process is wolfy. She ends up voting him for this reason.

Impression: I'm not sure about Greenie. Yes, the timing of her vote made it a throwaway, but I don't know that this alone makes her suspicious. Greenie does tend to be someone who flies under my radar.

---

Kit: Post #85 was her jump on Lhuna. In #95, she thinks a Pitchwolf could pick Legate as an easy target and later states that she think there is a wolf among LGP. She dedicates post #220 to looking at my post - she doesn't like what she sees, but lays off. After reviewing G55, she votes Pitch.

Impression: Unlike others, I don't find her comments of Lhuna suspicious, just a bit aggressive. It is interesting that she spent a bunch of time concerned about my posts, then went along with Pitchwife. I was suspicious of her yesterDay because of her push for Pitch, which could be wolfy behavior should he be innocent. I am still wary of her.

---

Sally: Not much content to go off from yesterDay. The reason behind her vote was obvious.

Impression: Too little information to have an impression. Hopefully we'll hear more toDay.

---

Kath: Post #81 she provides a summary list that's a bit inconclusive. She votes G55 because she doesn't like how she slides the fake vote idea to Legate.

Impression: I noticed a lot of her posts talk about the players without providing actual opinions of them. I couldn't find where she suspected G55 earlier. She remains a mystery to me right now.

---

Ka: In post #194, she plays into Pitch's idea that a wolf could be among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me. She finds me playing it safe and then votes me.

Impression: I found her looking innocent early yesterDay, but less so now. Her reasoning for voting me is valid, but her timing is more suspicious.

---
Eonwe: Posts a non-committal summary in #153. In his vote post, he throws out several names of possible suspects but is unwilling to commit and votes Urwen instead.

Impression: Some pointed out that summary post and I agree it's wishy-washy, but not necessarily suspicious for Day 1. I don't like his vote, but again it's not necessarily suspicious.

---

Lhuna: She mentioned she hates Day 1 and then voted for herself.

Impression: Still too little to go on. Her self-vote doesn't point to anything.

---

Lalaith: Not much participation yesterDay, apparently due to time constraints. Hopefully we'll hear more today.

Impression: Not enough to have one. Though I will respond on her recent post disagreeing with my Night kill post - I see her point on Scenario 1, however I don't think a wolf would automatically suspect seer just because they are on a list. I could see the wolves suspecting a seer Rikae maybe if they thought they dreamt of G55 (considering they put her on the suspect list and their later exchange).

---

Urwen: Votes G55 out of spite then threatens to disappear toDay.

Impression: Don't like the vote, but I'm more inclined to think she's a confused ordo. If she does disappear, I'd rather not waste anymore time analyzing her behavior since she'd get modfired anyway.

---

I think that was everyone.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 03:10 AM   #21
A Little Green
Leaf-clad Lady
 
A Little Green's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,571
A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
Send a message via MSN to A Little Green
Okay, Rikae then. Several theories on why they were picked.

Lottie seems to think the wolves took Rikae out because they were a powerful semi-assumed innocent after their fight with G55.
Boro and Inzil seem to think the wolves can’t afford to pick someone just to frame an innocent, so there must have been another reason.
Brinn seems to think Rikae was picked to frame her, and Mac seems to think Rikae was picked to frame him.

More specifically:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not. I mean hell we have 5 wolves. So yes the "Brinn's being framed" is suspicious
This is a fair point. I don’t think the wolves can afford not to go for potential Gifteds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No??? If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate re: Lottie
You are operating awfully close to the idea as if you somehow knew Brinn to be innocent. Objectively, the idea of Wolves keeping loud distracting player vs quiet one makes sense, but your whole theory stands on the idea that Brinn would have to be not one of them.
I agree with Lommy’s point above on how a bandwagon against Brinn doesn’t mean she is innocent, and Legate brings up an interesting point about Lottie seemingly assuming she is. If Brinn turns out to be innocent, this will merit a closer look. Boro later goes further and states that he is going to assume Brinn is a wolf. I assume the “people” who assume Brinn is innocent that Lommy is referring to are maybe Lottie and Huin? Also speaking of Huin there's this –
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huin
It seems pretty clear G55 brought up the no-vote/fake-vote idea specifically to derail the day. But Legate picking it up and running with it can't have been part of the plan (unless she knows him really well), which still inclines me against suspecting him. Pitch, though… I'm still not convinced by his switch of the blame for the idea from G55 to Legate. I'm not going to impart PitchWolf with supernatural Cobbler-spotting talents, but as I think I said yesterday, he could have been trying to move the focus specifically onto Legate, not off G55.
Why would a Pitchwolf want to move the focus onto Legate specifically, if not to move it away from a packmate or a suspected cobbler? What would be the motive? Huin also downplays the arguments against Brinn here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huin
Conclusions? Well, obviously I think the arguments against G55 are stronger (to say the least) than those against Brinn. They were also broadly agreed on, particularly the idea that something was up in the GLP, whereas the only agreement in the Brinn voters seems to have been 'she's quiet… too quiet', with other reasons added on at will to justify that unease.
He also explicitly voted to save Brinn yesterDay. Something going on here, though I’m starting to think it’s too open to be a wolf defending a packmate.

Then there’s Brinn’s scenarios on why Rikae was killed:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

The problem is that all three of these are possibilities and there are probably more out there, which leads me to...

Scenario 4. The wolves love chaos.

There are so many reasons why the wolves could've chosen Rikae including confusing and distracting the village. If we spend too much time trying to theorize why they died, that takes away focus from the actual posting from YesterDay and toDay, which plays into the wolves' hands. That said, I am wary of anyone who will lean too much into focusing on the Night kill.
Alarm bells. 1 and 2 both connect the kill to Brinn herself. As others have pointed out, there might have been other reasons for suspecting Rikae is Gifted, or (as Mac demonstrated) other people who could have been “framed” by the kill. Additionally, I agree with Inzil and Boro that the wolves using a Night kill just to frame an innocent is unlikely. 3 is basically what Lottie suggested early on, and while not directly suspicious, also not very likely in my opinion. As for scenario 4, this is basically Brinn saying that we shouldn’t look at the Night kill because in her opinion it implicates her, and anyone who does look at it is suspicious. Under normal circumstances, I’d be crying “wolf!” just about now. But we also have Mac acting equally paranoid (and even weirder) about the Rikae kill.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*
I’m still operating from the premise that a Night kill purely to frame somebody isn’t worth it for the wolves at this point (especially since, as we’ve seen, this particular one apparently can “frame” either Brinn or Mac, depending on which one you ask ). But more to the point, that first paragraph? As Lommy pointed out, how would that even occur to you if you’re innocent? He goes on to elaborate on this later:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.
So basically, his theory is that cobbler55 thought Rikae was a Seer who dreamed Mac is a wolf and that she tried to buddy up with Mac for this reason. This bit sounds plausible enough to me. But then Mac goes on to say that the wolves went after Rikae because if he was a wolf he would think Rikae was a possible Seer too, and the wolves want to frame him. I have a few problems with this. First, as discussed above, I don’t think the wolves can afford a Night kill just to frame somebody rather than going for potential Gifteds at this stage. Second, even if the wolves would kill just to frame somebody, he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself. This is very close to how Brinn, too, is convinced that the kill was engineered just to frame her.

And lastly, Brinn addresses this herself:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn re: Mac
Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason.
I’m not sure why Mac’s framing theory is any more of a stretch than Brinn’s. In fact, I think they are strikingly similar, and find it curious that Brinn doesn’t.

Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate
__________________
"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."
A Little Green is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 03:13 AM   #22
A Little Green
Leaf-clad Lady
 
A Little Green's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,571
A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
Send a message via MSN to A Little Green
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Eönwölf

This makes me hope he is indeed a wolf so we get to call him that.
__________________
"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."
A Little Green is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 03:52 AM   #23
Thinlómien
Shady She-Penguin
 
Thinlómien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.
I see Greenie and I are very much on the same track re: Rikae-Mac-Brinn, and I agree with this conclusion too.

As for Legate returning to the fake votes, I want to scream NOT AGAIN, but then again, perhaps something interesting can be gleaned from them, if one has the stomach...
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer
Blood is running deep, some things never sleep
Double Fenris
Thinlómien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 03:02 AM   #24
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
Legate of Amon Lanc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
After repeated experience of writing a post, fifty new posts coming while I write, then ending up with an endless scroll, I'm going to post one whole thought now and continue with more afterwards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Ok, so I took out those who didn't vote for either G55/Brinn. 2 wagons that big had to have wolf involvement.

As noted already today, Steve's and Greenie's throw away votes came within the 30 minute mark. Looks of "not wanting to get their hands dirty." At the same time, can't tell if they're too suspicious without knowing Brinn's role.
Boro's starting remark "there must be Wolves among these big bandwagons" (while likely) and the fact he excluded the remaining votes forced me to look them up and that in turn prompted me to calculate.

It is *theoretically* possible that the Wolves are Lhuna, Boro, Shasta, Kitanna, Greenie and/or Eönwë (and/or Lalaith). And so in fact, there is rather a big chance that there is a Wolf among those, and to be honest, I am actually more convinced that there is at least one - or likely more than one.

Since I'm at it, I could just as well look at them.

Lhuna's self-vote would be a perfect cover. Perfect in the sense that she would do it regardless, so it has no objective impact as evidence. But if she was a Wolf, it'd be ideal way to keep her hands clean (no pun intended).

More interesting are those who came later. All of those came after the 30 min mark and came sort of in response to the appearing bandwagons. The beginning came from the discussion "G55 or Pitch" and actually several people leaned both ways and didn't want Brinniel. Some of those who originally took part in the debate (Hui, Lottie) later voted G55 over Pitchwife, already at the point when it was very late and it came to the race between the two.

Both Shasta and Kitanna voiced fairly reasonably backed suspicions based on the "Pitchwife goes on offense-defense" argument related to the whole trialogue.

Greenie's vote for Mac is the "safest" in the sense that it comes up with a new bandwagon when there are others already going. I actually still don't like it because I think it easily could be faked. But I would need more data to form a broader picture.

Eönwë is right in the same category with his single vote for Urwen. On second look, I have to backtrack on what I said in my previous post and say that it really looks throwaway, however, at the same time, I still think it looks rather like an innocent throwaway. Less than 15 minutes before end, a throwaway vote is a suspicious move, and not sure if an Eönwölf would do it.

That's some musing on those. Lalaith I see has appeared since. I hope we are going to have more input from her, including a vote; same goes for Lhuna.

Back to reading...
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories
Legate of Amon Lanc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 05:34 AM   #25
Kitanna
Child of the West
 
Kitanna's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
Kitanna is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kitanna is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
Now, to business:

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:[LIST=1][*]She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.[*]She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.[*]She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.
Since she was the cobbler I'd say the chances of her trying to get an innocent Brinn killed are small. She would have no knowledge if Brinn was guilty or innocent except her own read on the situation. Her fake reveal seems more like a little "save myself for another day" and a little bit "sow some last minute discord if I'm to die."
__________________
"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain
Kitanna is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2020, 08:57 AM   #26
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Commenting as I read...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Boro's starting remark "there must be Wolves among these big bandwagons" (while likely) and the fact he excluded the remaining votes forced me to look them up and that in turn prompted me to calculate.
I forgot to mention this in my earlier post, but I didn't like how he excluded the non-me/G55 bandwagoners. Because I certainly think there is at least a wolf or two among that group it's nonsensical to blow them off.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
Brinn seems to think Rikae was picked to frame her
Nope, I don't necessarily think that's the reason they killed them; just mentioning it among the many possibilities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
As for scenario 4, this is basically Brinn saying that we shouldn’t look at the Night kill because in her opinion it implicates her, and anyone who does look at it is suspicious.
Twisting my words a bit. I didn't say we shouldn't talk about it at all - just that it shouldn't be the main focus of the Day and anyone who leans into it too much could be sketchy.

Note: I am able to pop in throughout the day, but I am multi-tasking between work.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 09:19 AM   #27
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?
Well, I know I'm innocent, so I can't say that my own vote is suspicious. I had also been wary of Hui throughout the Day as I wondered if his strong defense of me on Day 1 was a wolf trying to appear in a better light should I be lynched.

Combined with timing, I thought hiding behind Kit for your reason to vote him could possibly be wolf-on-wolf. I think Eonwe's vote could be more likely wolf-on-wolf - he put the nail in the coffin, but if he had voted Mac instead, his vote would look very suspicious indeed should Mac be innocent and Hui later revealed as a wolf.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 10:39 AM   #28
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
A look at Lhuna:

On Day 1, she self-votes which doesn't point innocence or guilt. Either way, I'm not a fan of it because it avoids tracing. This is where she also points out Hui's slip, in which I'd like to echo Lommy and Greenie's comments from toDay:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)
Hm. I find Lhuna somewhat concerning so this is a definite possibility - in a way, a fellow wolf would be more sensitive to noticing wolf slips or thinking them obviously noticeable to everyone given that she'd know it was a slip.
...because I completely agree.

In the same post she writes:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.
It was still early in the Day, but still she seems to draw up some suspicion without committing to it.

Day 2: She replies to Inzil's comment on Kit with
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.
I believe some others have mentioned that her involvement in this discussion is worrisome and I concur. Her second sentence seems like she's setting Kit up for suspicion, which could be the reason why the wolves risked not killing her the previous Night. After Kit says she knew G55 was lying, she continues to push:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
How? As an ordo your certainty can only be asymptotic to 100% AT BEST. But I didn't think you would be so careless? flippant? bold? as to post that if you 100% k3new for sure, if you get my meaning. Hence my reasoning in circles.

Edit: Or as a wolf, for that matter
Response to Hui:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hui
Looking at the crossposts: do we really want to be pressing Kitanna for more information? Fine if she's a wolf, but otherwise isn't it better to keep the wolves guessing?
Not so much pressing her for information as loudly wondering how she's alive and if she has anything to say about it.
Her next comment on the matter:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
My thinking was more along the lines of she might either know who the Ranger is, or be unable to commit suicide at Night. But I agree with moving on for now.
But if Kit knew who the ranger was that could indicate that she's the seer...so why bring it up?

In post #394, she decides to focus on analyzing the G55 voters since it was still technically a vote for an innocent. In summary:
Kath: Finds her vote fishy since she didn't say much about G55 until the last couple posts.
Inzil: Calls his vote suspiciously bandwagonny.
Lottie: Leaning innocent for sincerity.
Lommy: Says of her:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Said "Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??" to Lottie over something the latter had said a couple of times throughout the Day. Then her posts at the end of yesterDay. Prefaced her vote with "let's make this interesting."
Then proceeds to point out Lommy's posts after the fake ranger reveal. Calls her "Wicked. Tricksy. False."
Hui: Says
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
If he voted Pitch as he preferred, he would have nearly contributed to a three-way tie, although I'm not sure if anyone else (other than Lottie, who at that point had already voted) would also vote for Pitch. Huin-Brinn wolf pair? Can it be that blatant?
Seems inconclusive about him.
Brinn: Finds my vote reasonable being self-preservation, but my behavior suspicious.

In post #425, she again questions my Day1 behavior and finds Eonwe somewhat suspicious for his Day 1 vote and current posting. Says she might vote Brinn, Lommy, or to a lesser extent, Mac (for his strange behavior, but she's not convinced it's wolfish). She ends up voting Lommy and adds this comment:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Parting shot: Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote.
ToDay she noted my response and says she stands corrected, but it doesn't remove the uneasiness I have from it. Her vote for Lommy feels weak - I don't think there's strong reasoning behind it.

Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip.

--

Okay, I was considering looking at Kath toDay, but I'm running short on time for another long analysis. And I'm actually feeling okay about her for now because I agree with several of her points in post #685.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 11:02 AM   #29
satansaloser2005
The Sweetest Spoiler
 
satansaloser2005's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
Off to run some errands, but I wanted to drop in to say I am here and mostly awake.

Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying.

Back in a bit, hopefully with more to say!
__________________
"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit."
Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together.
Fenris bookworm.
satansaloser2005 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:45 PM.



Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.