What is the Chance of the Valar Fighting for the Free People During the Third age?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Rhun charioteer

Sauron now has total dominion over Middle Earth.

There is no last refuge, no place to hide-maybe some holdouts in the mountains remain, or refugee camps but they can be destroyed at his leisure.

In this scenario-the valar have two choices-intervene directly and decisively or let Sauron rule indefinitely. Maybe nurturing every flower that grows and every hope of a whipped slave or dreaming child. But it will take eons in this scenario for this little resistance to coalesce into something that could defeat Sauron.

I think that's the point though. No matter how outwardly absolute his rule is in the immediate aftermath, it is not quite as absolute and unchangeable as he thinks. Pockets of free people would remain hidden away, and in far away lands people may live free from his rule. Yes, it may take a long time to see Sauron's rule erode enough to crumble down, and it may take another (or the very same) Gandalf to find and rouse these people, and maybe his rule would collapse from within rather than from external frontal attacks... But I think that would be the choice of intervention. This is the way the Valar were headed since the beginning of Arda - from the "gardners" of the world, actively weeding and planting, to onlookers, allowing the Children to exercise their own will. They let the Children, in particular the Men, take responsibility for their world. I think that shift in particular was evident in LOTR. They can nudge and guide, but they would not bring in an army with trumpets blaring and sink another continent in another war of the Ainur.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I think that's the point though. No matter how outwardly absolute his rule is in the immediate aftermath, it is not quite as absolute and unchangeable as he thinks.

Agreed. That's true of every historical empire (it's notable that the Romans 'wiped out' the pre-invasion tribal names in Britain, only to have them reappear on gravestones less than a generation after the legions withdrew), and it's especially true in Middle-earth, which was written by Tolkien and has a clear focus on 'there is always hope'.

Where does that hope lie? Let's take your premise, Rhun charioteer, and run with it. Sam manages to kill Gollum in Shelob's lair (he cracks his head on a rock), and so Frodo successfully claims the Ring. Sam tries to reason with him, but fails. The Nazgul arrive, and - per Galadriel back in Lorien, I think - take Frodo captive and present him to Sauron. (Sam may actually survive and stay hidden; I'm sure there's a story in that.)

Sauron reclaims the Ring. But... what's happened outside the Black Gate? Tolkien seems to imply that the Armies of the West were on the verge of victory when the Ring was destroyed, and there's been time between for them to achieve it. That means, far from all being dead, Aragorn and Gandalf are now pressing through the Black Gate - and Aragorn is carrying the sword of Elendil.

I think, far from a quick defeat for the West, we're looking at a second Siege of Mordor. The Ring doesn't make Sauron all-powerful, or else he wouldn't have been defeated so often in the Second Age. He'll want to stall, to have time to bring up more of his forces - and that means there's time for the likes of Legolas and Gimli - and Eomer - to run back home and bring up reinforcements.

But okay: assume they fail. Assume Tolkien decided to be a miserable grump and make them lose. Every significant military force among the Free Peoples has been wiped out. What does Sauron do?

Well, he's not Morgoth. He doesn't want to burn Gondor - he wants to rule it. (Witness Minas Morgul - and Numenor.) He may end up in permanent war with Erebor - Thorin Stonehelm doesn't seem the kind to submit - but I don't think he could easily break the Lonely Mountain.

Rohan goes over to the Dunlendings. Gondor, under Steward Faramir, is probably forced into some version of Sauron's offer made at the Black Gate; I think Faramir would probably accept it for the good of the people, now that all hope of military resistance is over.

The elves, of course, don't get that chance, and I think you're right that they flee or die. Lorien and Rivendell at least have to go. Eriador... I mean, does Sauron care? There's nothing there except the Shire. Oh... yeah. The Shire. Where the Hobbits live. Like the Hobbits who stole his Ring. Yes, Sauron cares, and there's goblins swarming out of the Misty Mountains to attack it.

Merry and Pippin are both still alive, and guided by Gandalf. What would they do in the face of an oncoming orcish rabble? Well... both Theoden and Denethor, their respective liege-lords, evacuated their own civilians in the face of invasion. Could the sons of the Thain and the Master pull off a mass exodus of the Shire? They probably have a couple of years, so it's certainly doable.

I think probably yes. The hobbits scatter and go into hiding, not letting the Big Folk or the Orcs see them. When the army arrives, it is to untended fields and empty houses. Sauron, needless to say, is furious.

That's the stage set. We have at least three formerly-free groups who could conceivably start a rebellion, but unless Sauron loosened his grip, there's not really anything they could do. And why would he ever do that?

Oh, yeah: because he's Sauron. He's gotten revenge on the Numenoreans. He's been thwarted of his revenge against the Hobbits (he probably has hunting parties roaming through Eriador after them). He's finally gotten rid of the elves. What's his next play?

Valinor. Ultimately, after all his own grievances, Sauron still wants to get back at the Valar for their humiliation of his master. That's why he turned the Numenoreans, Saruman, the Noldor by way of Ring-making. It is his ultimate obsession.

I have no idea what he'd do. But it seems not unlikely that it would be enough to get Manwe to once again put in a call to Iluvatar: "hey, your kids are acting up again, here's the keys, we'll let you sort it out." Last time that happened, the entire shape of the world was changed. Can we even conceive of what the One would do this time around?

... maybe.

Originally Posted by Athrabeth Finrod ah Andreth

'How or when shall healing come? To what manner of being shall those who see that time be re-made? And what of us who before it go out into darkness unhealed? To such questions only those of the "Old Hope" (as they call themselves) have any guess of an answer.'

'Those of the Old Hope?' said Finrod. 'Who are they?'

'A few,' she said; 'but their number has grown since we came to this land, and they see that the Nameless can (as they think) be defied. Yet that is no good reason. To defy him does not undo his work of old. And if the valor of the Eldar fails here, then their despair will be deeper. For it was not on the might of Men, or of any of the peoples of Arda, that the old hope was grounded.'

'What then was this hope, if you know?' Finrod asked.

'They say,' answered Andreth: 'they say that the One will himself enter into Arda, and heal Men and all the Marring from the beginning to the end. This they say also, or they feign, is a rumor that has come down through years uncounted, even from the days of our undoing.'

Merry Christmas. ^_^

hS

[Rhun charioteer]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Agreed. That's true of every historical empire (it's notable that the Romans 'wiped out' the pre-invasion tribal names in Britain, only to have them reappear on gravestones less than a generation after the legions withdrew), and it's especially true in Middle-earth, which was written by Tolkien and has a clear focus on 'there is always hope'.

Where does that hope lie? Let's take your premise, Rhun charioteer, and run with it. Sam manages to kill Gollum in Shelob's lair (he cracks his head on a rock), and so Frodo successfully claims the Ring. Sam tries to reason with him, but fails. The Nazgul arrive, and - per Galadriel back in Lorien, I think - take Frodo captive and present him to Sauron. (Sam may actually survive and stay hidden; I'm sure there's a story in that.)

Sauron reclaims the Ring. But... what's happened outside the Black Gate? Tolkien seems to imply that the Armies of the West were on the verge of victory when the Ring was destroyed, and there's been time between for them to achieve it. That means, far from all being dead, Aragorn and Gandalf are now pressing through the Black Gate - and Aragorn is carrying the sword of Elendil.

I think, far from a quick defeat for the West, we're looking at a second Siege of Mordor. The Ring doesn't make Sauron all-powerful, or else he wouldn't have been defeated so often in the Second Age. He'll want to stall, to have time to bring up more of his forces - and that means there's time for the likes of Legolas and Gimli - and Eomer - to run back home and bring up reinforcements.

But okay: assume they fail. Assume Tolkien decided to be a miserable grump and make them lose. Every significant military force among the Free Peoples has been wiped out. What does Sauron do?

Well, he's not Morgoth. He doesn't want to burn Gondor - he wants to rule it. (Witness Minas Morgul - and Numenor.) He may end up in permanent war with Erebor - Thorin Stonehelm doesn't seem the kind to submit - but I don't think he could easily break the Lonely Mountain.

Rohan goes over to the Dunlendings. Gondor, under Steward Faramir, is probably forced into some version of Sauron's offer made at the Black Gate; I think Faramir would probably accept it for the good of the people, now that all hope of military resistance is over.

The elves, of course, don't get that chance, and I think you're right that they flee or die. Lorien and Rivendell at least have to go. Eriador... I mean, does Sauron care? There's nothing there except the Shire. Oh... yeah. The Shire. Where the Hobbits live. Like the Hobbits who stole his Ring. Yes, Sauron cares, and there's goblins swarming out of the Misty Mountains to attack it.

Merry and Pippin are both still alive, and guided by Gandalf. What would they do in the face of an oncoming orcish rabble? Well... both Theoden and Denethor, their respective liege-lords, evacuated their own civilians in the face of invasion. Could the sons of the Thain and the Master pull off a mass exodus of the Shire? They probably have a couple of years, so it's certainly doable.

I think probably yes. The hobbits scatter and go into hiding, not letting the Big Folk or the Orcs see them. When the army arrives, it is to untended fields and empty houses. Sauron, needless to say, is furious.

That's the stage set. We have at least three formerly-free groups who could conceivably start a rebellion, but unless Sauron loosened his grip, there's not really anything they could do. And why would he ever do that?

Oh, yeah: because he's Sauron. He's gotten revenge on the Numenoreans. He's been thwarted of his revenge against the Hobbits (he probably has hunting parties roaming through Eriador after them). He's finally gotten rid of the elves. What's his next play?

Valinor. Ultimately, after all his own grievances, Sauron still wants to get back at the Valar for their humiliation of his master. That's why he turned the Numenoreans, Saruman, the Noldor by way of Ring-making. It is his ultimate obsession.

I have no idea what he'd do. But it seems not unlikely that it would be enough to get Manwe to once again put in a call to Iluvatar: "hey, your kids are acting up again, here's the keys, we'll let you sort it out." Last time that happened, the entire shape of the world was changed. Can we even conceive of what the One would do this time around?

... maybe.



Merry Christmas. ^_^

hS

Regarding the dwarves and dale-as I understand it Rhunish forces were on the verge of victory at Erebor and then word reached them of the destruction of Sauron and then the defenders sallied and defeated the demoralized besiegers.

If the men of Rhun storm Erebor-that will be the strategic hammer that will open a lot of middle earth to envelopment by Sauron's forces-Mirkwood and Lorien will hard pressed-not just by orcs but Sauron's human soldiers(who ironically are his best).

If the ring is captured and the army of the west crushed-Sauron still has the army in Mordor and now can attack a weakened and exhausted Gondor and Rohan.

Military victory against Sauron as I understand it at least was not possible-in military and strategic terms he had stacked the deck.

[Rhun charioteer]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Agreed. That's true of every historical empire (it's notable that the Romans 'wiped out' the pre-invasion tribal names in Britain, only to have them reappear on gravestones less than a generation after the legions withdrew), and it's especially true in Middle-earth, which was written by Tolkien and has a clear focus on 'there is always hope'.

Where does that hope lie? Let's take your premise, Rhun charioteer, and run with it. Sam manages to kill Gollum in Shelob's lair (he cracks his head on a rock), and so Frodo successfully claims the Ring. Sam tries to reason with him, but fails. The Nazgul arrive, and - per Galadriel back in Lorien, I think - take Frodo captive and present him to Sauron. (Sam may actually survive and stay hidden; I'm sure there's a story in that.)

Sauron reclaims the Ring. But... what's happened outside the Black Gate? Tolkien seems to imply that the Armies of the West were on the verge of victory when the Ring was destroyed, and there's been time between for them to achieve it. That means, far from all being dead, Aragorn and Gandalf are now pressing through the Black Gate - and Aragorn is carrying the sword of Elendil.

I think, far from a quick defeat for the West, we're looking at a second Siege of Mordor. The Ring doesn't make Sauron all-powerful, or else he wouldn't have been defeated so often in the Second Age. He'll want to stall, to have time to bring up more of his forces - and that means there's time for the likes of Legolas and Gimli - and Eomer - to run back home and bring up reinforcements.

But okay: assume they fail. Assume Tolkien decided to be a miserable grump and make them lose. Every significant military force among the Free Peoples has been wiped out. What does Sauron do?

Well, he's not Morgoth. He doesn't want to burn Gondor - he wants to rule it. (Witness Minas Morgul - and Numenor.) He may end up in permanent war with Erebor - Thorin Stonehelm doesn't seem the kind to submit - but I don't think he could easily break the Lonely Mountain.

Rohan goes over to the Dunlendings. Gondor, under Steward Faramir, is probably forced into some version of Sauron's offer made at the Black Gate; I think Faramir would probably accept it for the good of the people, now that all hope of military resistance is over.

The elves, of course, don't get that chance, and I think you're right that they flee or die. Lorien and Rivendell at least have to go. Eriador... I mean, does Sauron care? There's nothing there except the Shire. Oh... yeah. The Shire. Where the Hobbits live. Like the Hobbits who stole his Ring. Yes, Sauron cares, and there's goblins swarming out of the Misty Mountains to attack it.

Merry and Pippin are both still alive, and guided by Gandalf. What would they do in the face of an oncoming orcish rabble? Well... both Theoden and Denethor, their respective liege-lords, evacuated their own civilians in the face of invasion. Could the sons of the Thain and the Master pull off a mass exodus of the Shire? They probably have a couple of years, so it's certainly doable.

I think probably yes. The hobbits scatter and go into hiding, not letting the Big Folk or the Orcs see them. When the army arrives, it is to untended fields and empty houses. Sauron, needless to say, is furious.

That's the stage set. We have at least three formerly-free groups who could conceivably start a rebellion, but unless Sauron loosened his grip, there's not really anything they could do. And why would he ever do that?

Oh, yeah: because he's Sauron. He's gotten revenge on the Numenoreans. He's been thwarted of his revenge against the Hobbits (he probably has hunting parties roaming through Eriador after them). He's finally gotten rid of the elves. What's his next play?

Valinor. Ultimately, after all his own grievances, Sauron still wants to get back at the Valar for their humiliation of his master. That's why he turned the Numenoreans, Saruman, the Noldor by way of Ring-making. It is his ultimate obsession.

I have no idea what he'd do. But it seems not unlikely that it would be enough to get Manwe to once again put in a call to Iluvatar: "hey, your kids are acting up again, here's the keys, we'll let you sort it out." Last time that happened, the entire shape of the world was changed. Can we even conceive of what the One would do this time around?

... maybe.



Merry Christmas. ^_^

hS

Regarding the dwarves and dale-as I understand it Rhunish forces were on the verge of victory at Erebor and then word reached them of the destruction of Sauron and then the defenders sallied and defeated the demoralized besiegers.

If the men of Rhun storm Erebor-that will be the strategic hammer that will open a lot of middle earth to envelopment by Sauron's forces-Mirkwood and Lorien will hard pressed-not just by orcs but Sauron's human soldiers(who ironically are his best).

If the ring is captured and the army of the west crushed-Sauron still has the army in Mordor and now can attack a weakened and exhausted Gondor and Rohan.

Military victory against Sauron as I understand it at least was not possible-in military and strategic terms he had stacked the deck.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Valinor. Ultimately, after all his own grievances, Sauron still wants to get back at the Valar for their humiliation of his master. That's why he turned the Numenoreans, Saruman, the Noldor by way of Ring-making. It is his ultimate obsession.

Hmm. I don't think Sauron would have cared by that point about Morgoth's defeat by the Valar:

"He probably deluded himself with the notion that the Valar (including Melkor) having failed, Eru had simply abandoned Eä, or at any rate Arda, and would not concern himself with it any more. It would appear that he interpreted the 'change of the world' at the Downfall of Númenor, when Aman was removed from the physical world, in this sense: Valar (and Elves) were removed from effective control, and Men under God's curse and wrath." (Myths Transformed)

I think he thought the Valar had already lost before the Third Age began and that Morgoth had proved to be as weak as the rest. My interpretation is that Sauron eventually considered Morgoth and Manwë to both be fools who had equally failed to produce order at all costs, which was the only goal he considered worthwhile and the objective he deluded himself into thinking all powerful people aspired to exclusively.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Rhun charioteer

Regarding the dwarves and dale-as I understand it Rhunish forces were on the verge of victory at Erebor and then word reached them of the destruction of Sauron and then the defenders sallied and defeated the demoralized besiegers.

I'm not sure you're right about Erebor. Certainly the Mountain was under siege, but how well could they withstand that? I'm remembering that Moria held against Sauron's entire army during his conquest of Eregion; could a fully-fortified Erebor not stand up to a rabble out of the east? I agree that they couldn't break free, but they might well just stay locked away there.

Originally Posted by Zigûr

Hmm. I don't think Sauron would have cared by that point about Morgoth's defeat by the Valar:

"He probably deluded himself with the notion that the Valar (including Melkor) having failed, Eru had simply abandoned Eä, or at any rate Arda, and would not concern himself with it any more. It would appear that he interpreted the 'change of the world' at the Downfall of Númenor, when Aman was removed from the physical world, in this sense: Valar (and Elves) were removed from effective control, and Men under God's curse and wrath." (Myths Transformed)

I think he thought the Valar had already lost before the Third Age began and that Morgoth had proved to be as weak as the rest. My interpretation is that Sauron eventually considered Morgoth and Manwë to both be fools who had equally failed to produce order at all costs, which was the only goal he considered worthwhile and the objective he deluded himself into thinking all powerful people aspired to exclusively.

This is an interesting thought. Then what is Sauron's goal by the end of the Third Age? Not destruction - the fact that he has empires under his sway in the south and east proves that. Just ruling everything? I think the answer hinges on this exchange:

Originally Posted by The Black Gate Opens

‘These are the terms,’ said the Messenger, and smiled as he eyed them one by one. ‘The rabble of Gondor and its deluded allies shall withdraw at once beyond the Anduin, first taking oaths never again to assail Sauron the Great in arms, open or secret. All lands east of Anduin shall be Sauron’s for ever, solely. West of the Anduin as far as the Misty Mountains and the Gap of Rohan shall be tributary to Mordor, and men there shall bear no weapons, but shall have leave to govern their own affairs. But they shall help to rebuild Isengard which they have wantonly destroyed, and that shall be Sauron’s, and there his lieutenant shall dwell: not Saruman, but one more worthy of trust.’

Looking in the Messenger’s eyes they read his thought. He was to be that lieutenant, and gather all that remained of the West under his sway; he would be their tyrant and they his slaves.

But Gandalf said: ‘This is much to demand for the delivery of one servant: that your Master should receive in exchange what he must else fight many a war to gain! Or has the field of Gondor destroyed his hope in war, so that he falls to haggling? And if indeed we rated this prisoner so high, what surety have we that Sauron the Base Master of Treachery, will keep his part? Where is this prisoner? Let him be brought forth and yielded to us, and then we will consider these demands.’

It seemed then to Gandalf, intent, watching him as a man engaged in fencing with a deadly foe, that for the taking of a breath the Messenger was at a loss; yet swiftly he laughed again.

‘Do not bandy words in your insolence with the Mouth of Sauron!’ he cried. ‘Surety you crave! Sauron gives none. If you sue for his clemency you must first do his bidding. These are his terms. Take them or leave them!’

• What did Sauron hope to achieve with this deal? Was what he asked for actually his end goal, or was it just a step on the way to outright conquest down the line?
• Why did he make the offer in the first place? If he felt he could destroy the army, then them accepting this offer would actually be a step down from the total victory he was on the verge of achieving.

Actually... I'm forgetting here that Sauron at this point thinks Aragorn has the One Ring. He may well be afraid that a battle will lead to his orcs being taken from him or something. Hrm. Still, I think the first question stands.

hS

[Rhun charioteer]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I'm not sure you're right about Erebor. Certainly the Mountain was under siege, but how well could they withstand that? I'm remembering that Moria held against Sauron's entire army during his conquest of Eregion; could a fully-fortified Erebor not stand up to a rabble out of the east? I agree that they couldn't break free, but they might well just stay locked away there.



This is an interesting thought. Then what is Sauron's goal by the end of the Third Age? Not destruction - the fact that he has empires under his sway in the south and east proves that. Just ruling everything? I think the answer hinges on this exchange:

• What did Sauron hope to achieve with this deal? Was what he asked for actually his end goal, or was it just a step on the way to outright conquest down the line?
• Why did he make the offer in the first place? If he felt he could destroy the army, then them accepting this offer would actually be a step down from the total victory he was on the verge of achieving.

Actually... I'm forgetting here that Sauron at this point thinks Aragorn has the One Ring. He may well be afraid that a battle will lead to his orcs being taken from him or something. Hrm. Still, I think the first question stands.

hS

As I understand it, the easterlings were Sauron's best troops-the dwarf king had fallen, and so had the king of Dale,

And the easterlings weren't "rabble" but rather Sauron's best. Think my screen avatar(Peter Jackson's portrayal)-that is always how I imagined them. With the best armour, weapons, training and discipline amongst Sauron's armies.

Sure Erebor would be able to hold out for a long time-but eventually the mountain would have been breached and the easterlings would have poured west.

[Galadriel55]

I think the point isn't that organized resistance in key centres would be holding Sauron's might back. At the Council of Elrond they predict that if Sauron gets the Ring, sooner or later even the most strongly defended strongholds would fall, and eventually he would have all official control over Western Middle-earth. But unless he butchers every single person - and that is NOT his goal; whatever the end-game is, it's about control, not anihilation, - he cannot wipe out all forms of resistance. In the words of Beregond, "Hope and memory shall live still in some hidden valley where the grass is green". Even if the fortresses fall and there is no major defense point left, people will find a way to carry on the message. Of course any overt rebellion must be put down immediately, but with generations of patience slow work may pay off.

Historically, it is possible to force people to assimilate into a new rule sufficiently to make them forget the messages of their past generations. However, I feel like Gondor has such a deep-rooted history that it would be hard to unroot completely, even with severe prohibitions, deportations, and other measures. Would Sauron really have to slaughter all the Numenorian descendants to keep order in his new world? Would he foresee the need for such a step before it's too late, before small groups are scattered far and wide, requiring significantly more effort to find and eliminate?

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Rhun charioteer

As I understand it, the easterlings were Sauron's best troops-the dwarf king had fallen, and so had the king of Dale,

And the easterlings weren't "rabble" but rather Sauron's best. Think my screen avatar(Peter Jackson's portrayal)-that is always how I imagined them. With the best armour, weapons, training and discipline amongst Sauron's armies.

I honestly don't think the book really says anything about the armour, weapons and training of the Easterlings beyond the fact that some of them (unfamiliar to the Men of Gondor) wielded axes, that some of them travelled in wagons and that some of their chieftains rode in chariots.

I'm not sure what I would consider to be the best of Sauron's forces. The Corsairs of Umbar seem to be feared, and the Orcs of Sauron's "trained armies" give the impression of being formidable, the ones who were "so completely under his will that they would sacrifice themselves without hesitation at his command", as well as the ones who "were by training as tough as Dwarves in enduring hardship" but we don't hear much more. In fact those quotes from Morgoth's Ring about Orc military training might be one of the only examples I can think of in which Tolkien discusses training in Sauron's forces.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

he cannot wipe out all forms of resistance. In the words of Beregond, "Hope and memory shall live still in some hidden valley where the grass is green". Even if the fortresses fall and there is no major defense point left, people will find a way to carry on the message. Of course any overt rebellion must be put down immediately, but with generations of patience slow work may pay off.

My thoughts exactly. I think Sauron would have found his ultimate goal, "divine honour from all rational creatures and absolute temporal power over the whole world", much more challenging than he expected.

[Rhun charioteer]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

I honestly don't think the book really says anything about the armour, weapons and training of the Easterlings beyond the fact that some of them (unfamiliar to the Men of Gondor) wielded axes, that some of them travelled in wagons and that some of their chieftains rode in chariots.

I'm not sure what I would consider to be the best of Sauron's forces. The Corsairs of Umbar seem to be feared, and the Orcs of Sauron's "trained armies" give the impression of being formidable, the ones who were "so completely under his will that they would sacrifice themselves without hesitation at his command", as well as the ones who "were by training as tough as Dwarves in enduring hardship" but we don't hear much more. In fact those quotes from Morgoth's Ring about Orc military training might be one of the only examples I can think of in which Tolkien discusses training in Sauron's forces.


My thoughts exactly. I think Sauron would have found his ultimate goal, "divine honour from all rational creatures and absolute temporal power over the whole world", much more challenging than he expected.

I seem to recall some easterlings made a stand at the River Anduin and fought till the last man while the orcs fled. This always spoke volumes to me about their combat quality.