Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, I now spent some time going through the posts of the players who were more out of spotlight...

Brinniel - was very scarce on Day 1, basically appeared, was against no-lynch policy, and voted Loslote, with the note that be the first to advocate a no-lynch could be a good cover for a baddie. On Day 2, discussed Morsul's death, also said that she was inclined to see Boro as innocent as his behavior would be risky for a baddie. Mentioned that both Boro and Eönwë were good possible options for the Wolves. After the Zilcident, started suspecting Nerwen:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

More seem to find Inzil's reaction worrisome, but I'm more worried about Nerwen. I didn't really see his comment as a slip-up and she seems to be pulling this idea out of hat and letting the rest of the village run with it.

She eventually voted her as well. YesterDay a bit and toDay more, she engaged in the debate on the Dead thread. Her contributions to that topic seemed like genuinely interested, if not always very much to the point. Objectively, her appearances have been infrequent, although whenever she appeared, she had something to say. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be the fact that she has basically remained on the outskirts of the debate.

Lalaith - actually posted a lot more than I thought, at least in quantity of posts. Not so much on first Day, though. She voted Nerwen, based on:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Because she's been a bit enigmatic toDay, because if she's bad she's scary and if she's good she'll be an asset to the dead thread.

On Day 2, thought Morsul was probably killed because he was thought innocent. Discussed the Wolf-killed-by-EW theory a bit (dismissing it), mentioned me, Brinniel, Mithalwen and later also Lommy as "sensible and thus feeling non-wolfish". She didn't get where the "Eönwë has changed" argument came from, and was...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Uncomfortable, in varying degrees, with Nerwen, Eomer, Boro (reasons stated elsewhere) - also Lottie and Zil - they seem helpful but I'm not feeling it.

I actually had to look back for the "reasons stated elsewhere" - they are apparently that they were proposing the idea of no Wolf on Night 1. That is fairly random, if you ask me, especially since next she uses the term "my five main suspects" as if it were a big thing. She eventually voted Eomer.
ToDay, she participated in the Dead List suggestions, and has been posting a lot of thoughts which may be going on as I type this. From what I have seen, however, there were many points which seemed helpful. If there is anything suspicous about her, it would be her list of suspects on Day 2 which sort of appeared out of nowhere (resp. the reasoning was quite random).

Mith - her Day 1 was straight going for Lottie, Day 2 didn't apparently drop it but was suspicious of Inzil for downplaying looking at Morsul and for voting Nerwen. She has been posting some quite reasonable things which make her look good to me, such as:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The important thing as I recall was to limit the questions so that the dead had a multiple choice of votes to allow for their special knowledge. We don't want to mess up lynching a wolf to know x in the dead thread was an ordo.

Same thing toDay about the alphabetical order etc. (unless there was some hidden purpose behind that, like clumping some Wolves into a fitting cathegory)
If there was anything potentially Wolfish about her, then it would be only one of the latter posts, which is basically "nobody would make me a Wolf":

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh come on Eomer. Since when have I been an excellent wolf choice? I have only survived once which was a fluke. Apart from being founder member with darling Anguirel of the Fenris pack, my main claim to fame was revealing out of sheer boredom.. Noone in their right mind would actually choose me.

But that is about it.

Sally - has missed Day 1, on Day 2 had a fairly pessimistic ouverture, dismissed Morsul's kill as probably random first kill, and posted very little apart from that. The main post of any content which seems objectively relevant is this, and I can quote in full:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

So all of the chatter about Dun bothers me more than Dun's own words. My intention at this point is to take a stab at someone in that conversation, though at this point, that's sort of everyone.

In less vague news, my gut reaction is to not trust Lottie.

As one more point, why are we talking about the EW potentially killing his or her own wolf? I fail to see how the wizard could benefit from this in any way. There is a wolf, and the wolf killed Morsul.

This all actually sounds quite genuine, but most of the rest of her posts are effectively just one-liners (even though they are part of conversation). Also, apparently tried to vote just before DL and failed. ToDay, she still scolded those who spread the vote in the beginning, but also not much else after that. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be that.

Summa summarum, in case of all of those, there isn't really enough for me to ring an alarm as far as I am concerned. I would definitely prefer to read more from all of those, except Lalaith has already started, which is good.

Ok, I spent some time with this, so off to check what's been happening on the thread, if anything.

EDIT: x-posted with lots

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Uh-huh. And I should also take a look at Shasta, for that matter. But he has been absent possibly even more than sally.

Also, a pity Pervinca had to drop (to be honest, this probably wasn't the easiest game to start with - but so hope she might come back for some other game...)

[Eönwë]

Got delayed a bit longer than I'd hoped. Catching up now.

[Nerwen]

Hello, all. And farewell, Pervinca.. This was probably not the easiest game to start off with- they're usually not this complicated. Hope you'll give it another try sometime!

Thoughts-

Nogrod's continued preoccupation with the Dead is really starting to raise flags for me. When I checked out earlier I thought the matter had settled, and then to find him still banging on about it hours later...

Then there's Legate-a few people (including Nogrod) have mentioned him as being slightly "off" toDay, and that a bit of a vibe I was getting myself with his Lommyalysis- especially as regards myself, as though he was quietly sounding people out as to whether they'd "like" to suspect me. But that could be paranoia on my part. Player analyses do lend themselves to that kind of thing, after all.
Edit: x'd since Nog.

[Eönwë]

In other words, while having a Visitor or two may be useful, keeping the EW alive might mean that we might not even get to a point where the knowledge of the Dead Thread can save us.

edit: x-ed with Nerwen and Nog.

[Nogrod]

Eönwe: please stop talking about Wizards and Visitors. Talk of people to vote toDay - and why exactly them.

[Nogrod]

Sorry to be this kind of an Owl of Minerva only flying after the fact - but with some hindsight (which I myself did acquire just now thinking about it) I could say that those who were very well on top of the rules on D1 and suggested a no-lynch policy are to me somewhat suspicious now.

I mean whatever we think about the possibility of the Dead Thread to help us, a no-lynch on D1 certainly robbed us one vote from them. And by default that should be the aim of the evil-side - especially as they didn't know beforehand, how the discussion on the Dead-vote issue would go on D1.

Now did the evil-ones saw this already beforehand or did they (or one of them - granting there was a wolf and an EW already on D1 which seems plausible) realize it only during the Day1?


Here are the one's I'd raise my eyebrow on...

Lottie was strongly for a no-lynch early on - and seemed to be on top of things. She voted to bring a tie.

Eomer is the same but disappears with no vote at all.

Legate was kind of going to-and-fro and ended up favouring no-vote (and tried to help organize it)

Eönwe first said no lynch is a fee ride for the wolves but then ended up suggesting a no lynch deal with his rigid system of tying the dead vote (the benefits of which he was actually cancelling with the no-lynch!).

Boro was a vocal - even literary supporter of a lynch unless the time came - and saved Lottie from lynching by voting himself.

My vote might go for one of these - and I believe there is at least one - if not two baddies in here. But also several innocents. But who is who?


PS. I'm trying to go to sleep toNight a bit earlier as well (being 2AM right now).


EDIT: X'd with Eönwe & Nerwen

EDIT2: Added: the benefits of (which he was actually cancelling with the no-lynch!) to make the point clearer

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sorry to be this kind of an Owl of Minerva only flying after the fact - but with some hindsight (which I myself did acquire just now thinking about it) I could say that those who were very well on top of the rules on D1 and suggested a no-lynch policy are to me somewhat suspicious now.

I mean whatever we think about the possibility of the Dead Thread to help us, a no-lynch on D1 certainly robbed us one vote from them. And by default that should be the aim of the evil-side - especially as they didn't know beforehand, how the discussion on the Dead-vote issue would go on D1.

I still *strongly* disagree. The Dead would have known no more than we did if they had had a vote on Day 2. They would not have been able to vote to reveal any roles yet at that point, so they would have had no more information than we did. "Robbing" us of one uninformed vote in favor of having another person still alive to give their own uninformed vote - and be able to defend it - does not seem like a bad trade to me.

I really can't figure you out - your consistency made me think that you were more likely innocent, but I'm not sure that argument holds up in this game format. I disagree with you on a lot of the game mechanic interpretation, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're evil. You do seem to see the people who disagree with you as evil, though, which might be a wolf trying to produce suspicions out of thin air rather than actually looking at posts and analyzing behavior, since that's more likely to lead to a packmate. I'm torn on what to think of you.

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I still *strongly* disagree. The Dead would have known no more than we did if they had had a vote on Day 2. They would not have been able to vote to reveal any roles yet at that point, so they would have had no more information than we did. "Robbing" us of one uninformed vote in favor of having another person still alive to give their own uninformed vote - and be able to defend it - does not seem like a bad trade to me.

But with two rather than one in the Dead Thread they could have checked on of them and deal the information to us? Okay. We need to check up the rules. If you're correct - then I was wrong and vice versa... I'll do it (darn clock going that fast...)

EDIT: X'd with many...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

All right, let's talk votes. I'm ready to vote for just about anyone - pretty much the only person I think might be innocent is Eonwe, for reasons stated previously. I still haven't decided what I think about Boro but inclined to leave him today. I'm also leaning very slightly towards Nerwen being innocent.

[Lalaith]

Why do you want to leave Boro today, Eomer? I've been concerned about voting for him in his absence, is that your reason too or is it something else?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Basically, I am sorely tempted at the moment to vote Nogrod. I would personally like to hear more from Boro. The submarines (especially Brinn, Mithalwen and Sally) would be next in line, but they also fall into the cathegory that I would prefer more data, otherwise it's mostly vote based on what they didn't do rather than what they did. Lalaith was a submarine too, but recently started posting much more and I can get a better read on her and wouldn't want to vote her toDay. Similarly with Shasta.

Eomer and Lottie I should probably re-check, but there wasn't anything that would make me vote them. Nerwen I just re-checked and also after her last response, I think I will just keep it at that for the time being. I am just wary of the fact that from her, one can expect anything. Some people have been suspecting Eönwë, but for myself, I didn't get any warning signs from his behavior that would make me suspect him now.

EDIT: x-ed probably since my last with a lot

[Kuruharan]

The deadline has come.

Please stop posting.

[Nogrod]

Okay. here it is.

Originally Posted by the Rules

After there are TWO residents of the Dead Thread, every DAY the dead get to vote on giving one of the living an extra vote. The dead are subject to the same deadline as the living. The living will not know who among them will get an extra vote until it is revealed in the closing narration of the DAY.

So, if there are two Dead on D2, they are allowed to give an empowerment to someone's vote in the Living Thread. With a no lynch on D1 there wasn't two but only one. Correct?

Then:

Originally Posted by teh Rulez

Since in the anteroom of the afterlife it is hard to hide one’s true nature from one’s fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are TWO residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. The voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY.

Now how to read this?

If there would have been someone lynched on D1 and someone killed on N2 could they have voted on N2? Well, probably not as it could be the Night-killed only learned about her/his destiny just a few moments before the Night ended / the next Day started?


So I stand corrected.

But I also realise what made me think it otherwise - and it is this:

Originally Posted by Ze rulls

Please Note: The threshold for the Dead Thread voting has been reduced to two since the Dead Thread will (presumably) not be filling up super-fast like the last Dead Thread game and I wanted to give the dead something to do sooner in the game. Yes, the first two residents of the Dead Thread will probably reflexively vote for each other for the role reveal…but then again, maybe they won’t.

Now in a normal situation there would have been one dead by lynch and one by baddies - follows a Day in which there is no voting among the Dead about their identities - so comes Night and they can finally vote to see who they are - but they seem to be like two Days behind because they have to vote just between the two of them - and not include the one who enters that Night, if I read the rules correctly now.

Which is insane and totally making the Dead Thread crippled and null and void. It looks like I didn't read this closely enough. But being two days behind it's just more or less same if we didn't have the Dead thread at all (well, maybe somewhere very late in the game - if there was a late game in the first place).

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Eönwe first said no lynch is a fee ride for the wolves but then ended up suggesting a no lynch deal with his rigid system of tying the dead vote (which he was actually cancelling with the no-lynch!).

Nope. As I said clearly at the time, a no-lynch on D1 means we start with a presumed innocent (i.e. a wolf-kill) in the Dead Thread.

I didn't want to say too much at the time to give the wolves ideas (and I'm not exactly sure how much I said), but the point is that this means that when the D1 lynchee joins, if the system is being followed, their role will be revealed either outright by Kuru or by their failure to cooperate. This then means which means that the next presumed innocent (i.e. the N2 wolf-kill) could make sure that the role of the D1 lynchee could be successfully communicated to group.

A plan that hopefully has played out, but certainly would've been almost certain to (barring exceptional possibilities such as the EW sacrificing a wolf) if it hadn't been sabotaged by a certain person.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick bursts of thought!

I agree that having no lynch on the first Day *could* have been a good idea because in this one case, it would be beneficial to have a guaranteed good person in the Dead Thread from the start(ish). That said, I find Steve's discussion of such things juxtaposed with his actions to be suspicious. That said, I'd have to delve into his posts with more time than I currently have in order to consider him as a lynch candidate toDay based solely on that point. I could go either way right now.

I'm terribly sad Pervinca dropped out. I hope you'll come back and join us for a calmer game!

Nogrod needs to be lynched for those long posts in which I thought I'd missed DL again. You jerk! <3 On a more serious note, he seems normal enough at the moment; I have a niggling feeling of some kind, but as I can't yet place it, I can't in good conscience consider him a candidate.

Lottie seems to be taking that stern tone she does as a wolf. Mind, I don't disagree with most of her points, but the way in which she is interacting with other players makes me want to scratch her behind the ears. I'd be okay with voting her for her toDay.

My radar hasn't pegged Nerwen either way yet, which is always worrisome, but I also haven't been terribly present so far this game (sorry again!), so I'm placing that on the back burner for now until I do another in-depth read of the thread.

Eomer reads as his reasonable ordo self and also has had decent points from what I've been seeing. I'd like to keep him off the block.

Though I've seen him pull some crazy shenanigans, I don't see Boro self-voting with votes still hanging out in the open if he were a wolf (especially on the first Day), so while I don't find his actions flawless, I have enough doubt that I'd rather vote for someone else at the moment.



Posting and catching up.


x'd since Nerwen debating her wish-washiness

[Eönwë]

Since it doesn't look like I have time to go into detail toDay.

Nerwen - Nothing she's said makes her seem particularly suspicious.

Loslote - either one of the only other sane people on this or an evil genius. Can't tell which.

Boromir88 - Honestly, who knows what he's playing at. But there's also nothing particularly incriminating.

Shastanis Althreduin - Scary because he seems to be around but posts very little. Very under the radar.

satansaloser2005 - Posts too little (at least in terms of content). A bit better toDay, but maybe a turned wolf trying to seem less suspicious.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Does seem a bit different toDay, but not in a bad way. More engaged in the conversation.

Lalaith - Same as Eomer.

Legate of Amon Lanc - I had my suspicions about him yesterDay, but I'm liking him more toDay. Could potentially be a wolf that feels that he has to continue along the same lines to avoid suspicion, but I'm ok with him for now.

Mithalwen - Keeps on saying that we should stop talking about the Dead Thread and our communication with it and instead talk about who seems suspicious, but doesn't really do much of the latter, instead complaining about our talking about the former. I don't really like this, but I also don't know if it's enough to base a suspicion off.

Nogrod - YesterDay I thought his disagreement on the Dead Thread seemed benign, but on reconsideration, I do actually agree with Legate that it looks like he he's trying to sabotage things. Not to mention his 'no-lynch' thing.

Brinniel - Seems to be posting more toDay. Again, maybe a new wolf, or maybe just has more to say.


We've now got to the point where potentially half of us have changed roles (though admittedly if the Visitor that Dies has been picked they wouldn't know), which makes everything a lot more confusing.

In general, I seem to be quite strongly flip-flopping on my suspicions.

People that I could consider lynching:
Nogrod - see above

The quieter ones - Shasta, Mithalwen, maybe Sally
Their quietness makes me uncomfortable and I feel like one of them is probably hiding something.

Lottie - her role could probably tell us quite a lot, but I don't know if I actually find her suspicious enough to vote for her. And given the numbers thing said above, I don't know if I'm willing to risk it.


edit: x-ed with so many

[satansaloser2005]

Eomer-->Lottie
Sally-->Lottie* (2)
Lalaith-->Lottie* (3)
Brinn-->Steve
Legate-->Boro
Lottie-->Boro (2)
Nerwen-->Nog


*x'd


Two minutes remaining.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, just sayin' in case, now I am really having this creepy feeling I made a mistake about not voting Nogrod.

Ugh hey guys remember somebody was also empowered probably!!! This better not go in some weird way.

EDIT: x-ed with several

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Ugh hey guys remember somebody was also empowered probably!!! This better not go in some weird way.

Oh no...


edit: woops

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Ugh hey guys remember somebody was also empowered probably!!! This better not go in some weird way.

Hence the caps. Guys, seriously.



x'd since the quoted post, and to Nog, HA!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, just sayin' in case, now I am really having this creepy feeling I made a mistake about not voting Nogrod.

Ugh hey guys remember somebody was also empowered probably!!! This better not go in some weird way.

EDIT: x-ed with several

I 'm having a creepy feeling that maybe I shouldn't have voiced my doubts just before... Oh dear.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean whatever we think about the possibility of the Dead Thread to help us, a no-lynch on D1 certainly robbed us one vote from them. And by default that should be the aim of the evil-side - especially as they didn't know beforehand, how the discussion on the Dead-vote issue would go on D1.

What? Nope, that was one of the strongest reasons people put for it - the first time the Dead could vote on anything was Day 2, so they would not know about what their own roles were. So they could not pass us information, because they didn't have any. And if you are arguing for that they could have given us their vote in the way you have been advocating - i.e. not passing information, but simply empowering someone - then it doesn't make any sense, because in our case, the person who would have been dead was instead still living and among us, so their vote counted anyway. So there was no loss to that in regards to the amount of people participating and so on. (Also if you had two members of the Dead thread, their "just empowering" votes could have easily also canceled each other, and then there would be nothing.)

So really.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Lottie and Eönwë

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That all being said, I am really starting to worry about Nog, because from sabotaging the whole Dead thing... I mean, yes, we can each have different opinions on how it should be handled, but things like questioning it two hours before DL, or now this peculiar judgment of the no-lynch basically casting suspicion on the people who advocated it? With the dead thread thing, this constant poking seems like probing whether the link (or trust, reliability) between Dead and Living can be broken. Leaving options open is one thing, giving the Dead ideas that nobody will listen to you anyway is sabotage.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Eomer and Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That all being said, I am really starting to worry about Nog, because from sabotaging the whole Dead thing... I mean, yes, we can each have different opinions on how it should be handled
...
this constant poking seems like probing whether the link (or trust, reliability) between Dead and Living can be broken. Leaving options open is one thing, giving the Dead ideas that nobody will listen to you anyway is sabotage.

I do stand corrected with the rules as I read them with thought now.

I do also think the Dead Thread is a waste of time now as well - and yes, we've wasted a lot of time discussing it as it is soo far behind the info it might give us is more or less useless. We might guess / interpret ToMorrow (D4) whether Zil was innocent on D2 (when there was two wolves at most!) - unless the game keeps going like seven Days or something (which is very improbable).

Uhh... the clock...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sorry to be this kind of an Owl of Minerva only flying after the fact - but with some hindsight (which I myself did acquire just now thinking about it) I could say that those who were very well on top of the rules on D1 and suggested a no-lynch policy are to me somewhat suspicious now.

I mean whatever we think about the possibility of the Dead Thread to help us, a no-lynch on D1 certainly robbed us one vote from them. And by default that should be the aim of the evil-side - especially as they didn't know beforehand, how the discussion on the Dead-vote issue would go on D1.

Well, if we by some miracle lynched a wolf on Day 1, then that wolf would certainly have gone against the other dead person in the dead thread on Day 2, so I'm not seeing how this cost the living any info.