Arda Cup Football 2015

[Boromir88]

Two Towers Network - Group H Preview
-Boro88

*Team Name (Round team was knocked out in 2013 ; Goals scored - Goals conceded)*


GROUP H

Barad-dur (Round of 16 ; 4-4)
-Additions: MF Khamul, MF Gothmog II, DF The Mouth
-Subtractions: MF Angamaite, MF Sangahyando, DF Fellbeast #2

Sauron's invested much more money this season than ever before, but he's also been protecting his investment by keeping a dirt cheap Mordor roster to absorb any losses if Barad-dur falls in the group stage. Although, I can't see that happening, Sauron's added better talent with each offseason move (as you would hope when spending 14 million more. Khamul, Castamir, and Beruthiel are an aggressive MF and each one can put it into the net so all the scoring isn't on Sauron's broad, dark, shoulders. I think their MF is deeper and more solid than Eriador's. Herumor and Gothmog II can focus on their defensive MF responsibilities, as they shouldn't have to aid the front-4 in scoring. The Mouth gets added to the defense, with already the 2 blue wizards and the defense suddenly looks solid. Grishnakh is a bargain at goalie, TTN seriously likes this team as 1st-place finishers, even ahead of Eriador this year.

Eriador (Quarterfinals ; 4-3)
-Additions: MF Gildor, DF Celebrimbor, DF Erestor, DF Arantar
-Subtractions: FW Isildur, MF Arador, DF Aragorn, DF Arwen

There's still Elrond and the additions of Celebrimbor and Erestor means a team that only surrendered 3 goals in 5 matches hasn't lost anything defensively. There was a severe lack of goal scoring and chances created by Eriador. 4 goals in 5 matches really tells the whole story. Gil-galad comes down to take Isildur's spot and he's a comparable player. Gil-galad and Glorfindel are great finishers, but Eriador's issue is they just don't create enough chances in a match (they prefer playing defense and counter-attacking) to score multiple goals. Eriador continues to have a top-3 defense and the best goalie in all of Arda, but I like Barad-dur's front 4 far more than Eriador's. And it's important to finish 1st in this group, because assuming Group A goes as predicted (The Sea comfortably winning the group), Eriador plays a similar game to The Sea's, but The Sea plays it better and has the better athletes.

Gondor (Group ; 3-4)
-Additions: MF Galador, DF Hyarmendacil II, GK Adrahil
-Subtractions: MF Ciryandil, DF Earnil I, GK Imrahil

What chance for Gondor to upset at least 1 of the 2 Middle-earth powers? I don't think very high. For their low-budget they are by no means an awful team. They won't be blown off the pitch by anyone in this group, meaning they'll be in every match. And a grudge match with their rival Barad-dur, could spark unpredictable glory and magic for Gondor. It's going to be hard to get through Gondor's stout MF, they all play well together, distribute the ball effectively, and there are certainly worse finishers than Eldacar and Anarion in the front. It's a really suspect back-3 and goal-keeping for Gondor this year though. Apply pressure to their back-line and they will crumble relatively easy, it's just they're well protected by a mid-field that's in sync and don't make mistakes throwing away possession.

Shire-Bree Utd (Group ; 2-7)
-Additions: MF Wormtongue, MF Golfimbul, DF Beregond, DF Peregrin
-Subtractions: FW Khamul, MF Gandalf, DF Shadowfax, DF Gildor

I won't add much more to what I already reported in my exclusive on the low-budget squads. Even though this team will finish in the black this year, the owners are all going to need come to the table and have an eye-opening moment, or they'll just never attract the talent they need to make this squad competitive again. They may give Gondor a decent game, because there's a couple Nazgul on the team to disturb the kingdom of Men. But those anonymous Nazgul, being S-B United's best players, are going to be completely ineffective against Eriador and Barad-dur.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod: Today: The Matchday goes meta. We’re playing a fictional game within a fictional game; it’s our special phantasy edition. With us today is someone perfectly suited to answer all you phantasy questions, it’s our tactics guru, Maikalomion.

Maika: Mae govannen.

Elenrod: And with him is someone who may or may not be similarly suited, but he has plenty of opinion. It’s the non-economist, Adam Smith.

Adam: Are you saying in a roundabout way that I’m rubbish at phantasy sport?

Elenrod: All I’m saying is that whether right or wrong, you have plenty to say about tactics and teams and players.

Felagundion: And it needs to be said that you’ve been in the bottom half of phantasy standings ever since I was imprisoned here.

Elenrod: And that’s our captive blogger, Felagundion, who will add a nuanced feel to the discussion.

Felagundion: All I’m saying is, Finrod should be a lock in any phantasy team. And I’m not letting go of Tar-Míriel until Armenelos are eliminated.

Elenrod: And that’s exactly the nuance you add. Now, let’s get the discussion rolling. What do you consider first when building a team?

Adam: First thing to remember is that group stage phantasy is a different animal to knockout round phantasy. In the group stage, you have unlimited substitutions so you can exploit certain match-ups.

Maika: That’s correct. Whereas in the knockout rounds, you have to be careful about teams being eliminated, and given the dearth of substitutions, you have to choose from more teams so that a sudden elimination won’t ruin your squad.

Elenrod: All right, so that’s something to keep in mind. How about building the actual team?

Maika: Adam said something about exploiting certain matchups, and that’s what you do. You find teams weak on one side of the ball, be it attack or defence, and see if they’re matched up against a team that’s great on the opposite side of the ball.

Felagundion: Ha, so something like FC Val’s attack against Nargothrond's defence?

Maika: That’s right. So Curufin, Celegorm, Yavanna, or Argon would be excellent additions to your squad.

Adam: Curufin, definitely. It’ll be helpful to check who’s up against proven talent like him, Túrin, Fëanor, Elrond, and Huan. Will that team stop those attackers or score against those goalkeepers?

Felagundion: So Shire-Bree, who has no established goalscorer, facing Eriador, is another fixture to exploit?

Maika: That’s right. Elrond’s definitely in my team, and probably one or two defenders from Eriador as well.

Adam: Speaking of defenders, it’s better to pick full-backs or tall centre-backs who are target of set pieces—basically defenders listed lower down the roster.

Elenrod: Okay, but Celebrimbor has a star. You already have two stars used up in Curufin and Elrond, only have two more to spare. Would you really use up that star for an attacking full-back?

Adam: In the early stages, it’s safest to put your stars into the forward and goalkeeper slot.

Maika: A really consistent scoring midfielder can also be considered for star usage.

Felagundion: And since Shire-Bree’s defence is no good either, Glorfindel’s an easy choice.

Elenrod: But that leaves you with three more defensive slots to fill. From what I’m seeing, it feels easier to pick attackers than defenders.

Felagundion: Well, Imladris have no established goalscorer as well, and Anduin’s defence could be great.

Adam: The Havens as well, although I feel uneasy about Erebor’s defence. And Círdan has those days when he can make defenders look silly.

Elenrod: So, do I pick a few from one team and a few from another, or do I pick all three defenders from one team?

Adam: Of course, if you’re using a 3-6-1, you only need one more defender. But I don’t think I can pick six attacking midfielders matched up against bad defences for this round. Having a star limit hampers your selection further.

Maika: Generally, 4-3-3 is the best formation to use. It’s a dirty little secret within the phantasy community that midfielders aren’t really a good source of points. Forwards score, defenders get points for just being in a team that concede one or less goal, but midfielders get less benefit from a clean sheet and they’re not generally at the end of attacking chances.

Felagundion: Picking three midfielders that won’t hurt you is a key here, I guess. There’s already Glorfindel and Argon from above, so at least this selection’s on the way there.

Maika: Going back to the original question, I prefer to stack my defenders around two great defensive teams matched up against goal-starved opposition. So I’m completing my back line with Fram, Felarof, and Grimbeorn.

Elenrod: Why Grimbeorn over Lenwë?

Maika: Ah, I guess because he seems more likely to attack than the Elf, despite being the deepest defender.

Felagundion: Denethor’s fuming that you still haven’t picked on his team yet.

Adam: Hahaha, that defence against a generally excellent Inter attack. That’s Maedhros, Fingon, Lúthien, or Hador to choose from.

Elenrod: I think that’s our Matchday 1 phantasy squad complete, I think?

Matchday’s Munchers
GK *Elrond (Eriador)
DF Erestor (Eriador)
DF Grimbeorn (Anduin)
DF Felarof (Anduin)
DF Fram (Anduin)
MF Lúthien (Inter Beleriand)
MF Argon (FC Valinor)
MF *Glorfindel (Eriador)
FW Fingon (Inter Beleriand)
FW *Maedhros (Inter Beleriand)
FW *Curufin (FC Valinor)

Felagundion: And then you just to do the same for the next matchday?

Maika: That’s correct. Which is why the fixture list is so important for your phantasy squad-building.

Elenrod: Now, how about the predictions?

Felagundion: Leading goalscorer and phantasy forward leader seems easy. You just check if Fëanor, Túrin, or Curufin’s team have a chance of making the semi-final.

Adam: Phantasy midfielder becomes a bit tricky, but you just pick a top-tier attacking midfielder from a team that would play seven games. Yavanna or Argon from FC Val, Tuor from AC Bel, Fingolfin from Hithlum, PhantomWolf from TiG, or Hador from Inter.

Maika: Of course, you should also take group opposition into account; if a team owns a group, then those players from other teams have to catch up. Hithlum, for example, are up against two minnows in Isengard and Rohan, so Túrin and Fingolfin seem like safe picks.

Elenrod: And how about lead provider? Is there a science to that one?

Adam: Ah, that one you just hope for the best. Picking a player from a team with a Golden Boot contender seems safest. That means Yavanna, Beleg, Fingolfin, or flipping a coin with Angrod or Aegnor.

Maika: There’s also Nerdanel or Nessa, who’s providing for an excellent goalscorer in Míriel.

Elenrod: Let’s now move on to the other side of the game, keeping the ball out of the goal. How would you pick phantasy goalkeeper or defender?

Felagundion: Defender is even more of a coin-flip than midfielder. I’ve never got that one right.

Maika: Haha, well, for that one the early rounds seem to matter more, because the further you go into the tournament, the better the opposition are, and the scarcer clean sheets become. So those great defensive teams put into groups with few goalscorers are at an advantage.

Adam: Alternatively, you can also go for defenders who score or assist, but there’s no way to predict that.

Maika: There’s Valimar against Mordor and the Barrow-Downs (and Armenelos, I must say.) There’s also Hithlum and the Wolves against Isengard and Rohan (and each other, sadly.)

Felagundion: So the best choice really is Inter against a decent Anduin squad as well as craptastic Imladris and the Stewards. Huan!

Adam: I guess him and Beren, then.

Elenrod: So putting them all together.

• Goals leader: Túrin (Hithlum)
• Assists leader: Beleg (Hithlum)
• Phantasy GK: Huan (Inter Beleriand)
• Phantasy DF: Beren (Inter Beleriand)
• Phantasy MF: Fingolfin (Hithlum)
• Phantasy FW: Curufin (FC Valinor)

Elenrod: We’ll leave predicting the tournament winner to you, dear viewers. Now, finally, the 100-million-dollar team.

Adam: First of all, the most important positions here are goalkeepers and forwards. You save up money on other areas for these positions.

Maika: That’s correct. Also, having players who’d be in seven games helps a lot, so choosing your four semi-finalists is crucial.

Elenrod: But that leaves you with only eight players to choose from.

Felagundion: I guess best quarterfinalists with a chance of upsetting one of the four would fill in the rest. That means FC Val, AC Bel, Hithlum or Inter, and Real or the Wolves.

Adam: Inter seem the weakest from that bunch, so as much as possible, I’d choose just one player from them.

Maika: But of course, the predictions for phantasy leaders will also play into this. That means if you get it right, it benefits both your team and your prediction points. I’d have to pick Huan and another defender from Inter.

Elenrod: Why not Beren? You predicted he’d be the phantasy leader for defenders.

Felagundion: He’s worth thrice as much as Imlach or NilpWight. Would he score significantly more than them?

Adam: That’s right, Fel. Those eight million will come in handy. As for the rest of the back line—again, we’re sticking to a 4-3-3—the cheapest defenders from AC Bel, Real, and TiG would do nicely.

Elenrod: Why not one from FCV as well?

Adam: Curufin and Argon.

Felagundion: That sounds about right.

Elenrod: And why a 4-3-3 and not a 3-4-3? Having more midfielders seems better.

Maika: But good attacking midfielders are expensive, and non-scoring, non-assisting midfielders provide fewer points than a defender from a team that concedes few goals.

Elenrod: Ah, that makes sense.

Felagundion: Picking the forwards is my favourite part of this. If you pick two cheap midfielders from any of the teams above, you can cram in the three Golden Boot contenders. Túrin, Fëanor, and Curufin are good for at least 60 points.

Maika: A more balanced approach would be to replace the first two with Beleg and Míriel and then selecting a better midfielder. You can only afford one more, though, mind.

Adam: If you want all your three midfielders to be solid ones, you’d have to replace Huan with Amroth (second best goalie in that creampuff group) for 7 million in savings. You can use that to pick that third good midfielder and just make up defence points by picking up an additional defender from Inter.

Elenrod: So to cap it off, here are the three teams you have chosen:

Adam’s All-Out Attack (100)
GK *Huan (Inter Beleriand) - 15
DF Arroch (AC Beleriand) - 2
DF Irimë (Real Valinor) - 3
DF KuruWight (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 3
DF NilpWight (Inter Beleriand) - 4
MF GwathWight (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 3
MF Aradan (Hithlum) - 4
MF Argon (FC Valinor) - 9
FW *Curufin (FC Valinor) - 16
FW **Túrin (Hithlum) - 20
FW **Fëanor (AC Beleriand) - 21

Stats Bomb (99)
GK *Huan (Inter Beleriand) - 15
DF Arroch (AC Beleriand) - 2
DF Irimë (Real Valinor) - 3
DF KuruWight (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 3
DF NilpWight (Inter Beleriand) - 4
MF Morwen (Hithlum) - 6
MF Argon (FC Valinor) - 9
MF *PhantomWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 12
FW Beleg (Hithlum) - 15
FW *Míriel (Real Valinor) - 14
FW *Curufin (FC Valinor) - 16

I Want Freedom (100)
GK Amroth (Anduin) - 5
DF Irimë (Real Valinor) - 3
DF KuruWight (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 3
DF Imlach (Inter Beleriand) - 4
DF NilpWight (Inter Beleriand) - 4
MF Argon (FC Valinor) - 9
MF *PhantomWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 12
MF *Fingolfin (Hithlum) - 15
FW Beleg (Hithlum) - 15
FW *Míriel (Real Valinor) - 14
FW *Curufin (FC Valinor) - 16

Elenrod: You’re not using up that spare million, Maika?

Maika: Nope, that’s fine.

Felagundion: I wish you got extra points every million saved. I’d still beat the both of you, mind.

Elenrod: That looks like something to look forward to. And speaking of looking forward, we’ll leave you viewers looking forward to our next show, because that’s it from us for now. Thanks to our regular pundits: Maika, Adam, and Fel. See you all after the opening round.

[Boromir88]

The Arda Cup has finally returned and The Two Towers Network's tournament analysis is going to be better than ever. We combed through all previous Arda Cups and rated every player by position and past performance. If anyone is interested in seeing the complete player ratings, shoot me a message, and I'll send the file. To publish every players' ratings would get quite tiresome and lengthy, so for the purposes of our guide, we just averaged everything out and rated the teams 1-32 in the categories of Offense, Defense, and Goalkeeping. Every year there are new players and others trying new positions, so some of the ratings are going to be guesswork (educated guesses based on the top analysts and statisticians).

*Note on the Tol-in-Gaurhoth team: The TIG team usually sees the biggest roster turnovers since various wolves and wights rotate in-and-out over the years. But their a deep community means no matter which wolf or wight makes the tournament roster, they're pretty much the same in ability and skill. So for example, this year NerWight is in the #2 FW position, and to rank her amongst all the FWs we used the stats from the #2 FW position from every previous TIG Arda Cup roster*

TTN's Preview focused on the roster moves from 2013 and how that could impact each team in 2015. This series will be our ultimate guide to the rosters, groups, and tourney predictions.

GROUP A

4th.Misty Mountains - (OFF: 20, DEF: 20, GK: 25)

Simply the weakest roster in nearly every category from the group. Group A looks like it's going to be dominated by the defenses and goal keepers. Their goalie, Chief Wolf, is ranked the 25th best goalie, which just isn't good enough compared to the rest of the group. Their best defensive player is Gwaihir, but the great Eagle never cracked the top-30 amongst defenders. There are some serious offensive deficiencies with the 2 group favorites, so the Misty Mountains will bruise up their opponents attackers. The big trouble is Gwaihir, Landroval, and Caradhras are well suited to containing aerial threats, but what are the going to do about Thranduil (Wilderland), Earendil (The Sea), and Legolas (Dwarves Utd)? You can't place the half-wit Troll on them, or they'll be playing with 10 by the intermission. They might have a chance in a poor defensive group with Durin's Bane and Azog leading the offense. Those two aren't scrubs, but there's no one else able to score. Rumil and Orophin are possession mid-fielders not scorers, and not at all creative in the attack. The defenses in this group are perfectly equipped to shutdown a rogue balrog and an orc. For not really changing their roster much, Misty Mountains took several steps back.

3rd. Wilderland (OFF: 16, DEF: 23, GK: 21)

The fight for 2nd place is extremely tough to call. Do you go with the best offensive team in the group, or 2 of top defenses in the tournament? TTN's going with the defenses, because we've rated them in the Top-6 and to break their defenses down, you need to be a great offense. Wilderland isn't, when you average all their attacking players' stats they're quite mediocre. The silver-lining is Scatha and Thranduil have had their best seasons when paired together. So perhaps they can find some old 2009-Mirkwood magic in that duo again, but I'm not seeing it. Bolg adds a 3rd scoring threat that the Misty Mountains doesn't have, but ultimately that's still not good enough to push them into even sniffing the Top-10 in offense. Wilderland's goalie situation is virtually the same as Misty Mountains, the Great Warg isn't consistent enough to give a championship performance every single match. He can be dominant in a single-match, but for a set of matches? The warg can't be relied upon unless playing behind a sturdier defense. And when it comes to their defense, Wilderland's the weakest in the group. It's hard to predict what impact newcomer Vorondil will have, but whatever impact it is, probably isn't good enough. Oropher is their best defender, but the highest rating he achieved was 33 (in 2011), and that's still worse than Gwaihir's highest (30 in 2012). Finglas and Beechbone can't even crack the top-100 when we're talking about only on average 120 defenders/per year.

2nd. Dwarves United (OFF: 28, DEF: 6, GK: 6)

I won't further beat the dead horse that is Dwarves United severe inability to score goals. That's not going to change this year, the question is are they good enough defensively to advance ahead of Wilderland and Misty Mountains? Yes. Let's start with their GK, Galadriel. Every year she puts up the numbers to be a Top-8 goalie. There was only 1 year, for an inexplicable reason she gave an awful performance and was rated 26th only saving 66.7%. The biggest criticism to Galadriel's teams is she wants to be the dominant personality and rules the team with a negative iron fist. I don't think that's a problem with Dwarves United, because she's not ruling team Lorien, she's on a team with mostly Dwarves and Ainur. Everyone knows Galadriel has a soft-spot for Dwarves, and Gandalf is one of the few people she has ever defected to. Now let's examine this defense. It's a defense that is perfectly equipped to handle the threats on Misty Mountains and Wilderland. They have a Balrog-stopper and architect to the downfall of a dragon and a fearless, tireless horse that is only better when paired with its White Rider. The weakest defender is Azaghal (and he's still rated in the Top 50% - overall 60th) and can be a compliment to handling whatever literal and figurative firepower Scatha and Durin's Bane can conjure. Then there's still Aule! As a pure defender, Aule's arguably weaker than Azaghal. A significant factor in Aule's higher rating is, as a defender he has a creative offensive mind that looks to start quick counter attacks. He's by no means a bad defender, but all we mean is he's not suited to be a primary defensive stopper. He's more balanced and has the mind to start a counter, which will fit perfectly considering Gandalf, Shadowfax, and Azaghal are better focusing on defensive responsibilities.

1st. The Sea (OFF: 17, DEF: 4, GK: 11)

Which leaves The Sea as TTN's Group A winners. In the group stage, you know in the previous 6 Arda Cups, Ulmo's team was only beaten once? I didn't stutter. ONE TIME (in just strictly the group stage) has Ulmo's team fallen. A record of 8 wins, 9 draws, 1 loss in group stage matches. Bottomline is Ulmo's teams are insanely tough to beat in the group. The problem with The Sea lately is despite putting up superior stats and not LOSING, they inexplicably get bounced out of tournaments early, or can't get out of their group because there is a lack of spirit to play to win. There's been an aura of nonchalance and carelessness in The Sea's performance. They just don't seem to have the proper motivation to advance, despite having superior talent and statistically dominant (particularly when it comes to defense). It's a blessing they always remain cool and professional, but also a curse because they never achieve that passion and will to win. There's no reason The Sea shouldn't take 1st place in this group, even when you consider they won't have any desperate motivations to win it. They just shouldn't be beat by of the rosters from a lesser age. ArdaCup.com was quite bold in calling Ulmo the 3rd highest overpaid player. There is some validity in how Ulmo hasn't delivered in terms of results since 2010, but there has been a little arm-twisting in the stats. Ulmo always has one of the stingiest defenses, but ArdaCup.com just looks at the goals against as their defensive rating, and that's a bit deceptive. You have to factor in the goalkeeper as well, and Voronwe was a big problem for The Sea in 2012. Hyarmendacil (TTN rates 11th GK this year) is a significan improvement. You also have to factor in Ulmo was likely contributing too much to the offense in order to score enough goals. Signing Earendil, and letting the reigns loose on Osse to create their offense (plus still keeping some sturdy Numenoreans) should mean Ulmo can return to what he does best, focusing on defense.