Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Rikae]

Ok, let's not risk splitting the vote.

I mean, we might have enough votes to pick someone else, but say there are three wolves here and the four remaining innocents voted for Nog or me... the wolves could pile on Legate and tie the vote.

++Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sure sure, so be it.

++Legate

Let's also hope the next, whoever dies, will be somebody interesting. Or actually, it would be nice if they were Wolves (for instance if the packs killed each one from the other pack). But yep...

[Nogrod]

Out of nine we need 5 votes to be sure it counts.

So I'll add the fourth.

++ Legate

And I think we can count of Agan to give the fifth.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I can't be certain of your alignment, thus I wanted to offer you as little opportunity to sabotage the vote as possible.

Compliment returned.

[Rikae]

Nine! *facepalm*

I think I wasn't counting Lottie.

[Loslote]

++Legate

Fine by me.

[Aganzir]

Well friends don't worry!

++Legate

That being done, I'm off to do some actual wolf hunting.

(Love the song, Rikae.)

[the phantom]

Darn it you two! I was going to post "Mwu ha ha, now Rune, Mac, Lottie, and I will tie the vote to force no result- better hope for Agan to save you!" but now I can't.

Anyway, yeah, obviously it'd be kind of nice to know instead of suspect things regarding Rikae/Mac/Nog, but I do wonder if Legate is the biggest enigma overall considering Lottie's reveal on the Living Thread ("I killed him because he's the Seer!" would actually make a nice cover for losing a packmate, particularly if he placed the third packmate on his innocent list).

So no point in delaying this-

++Legate

I'm around for another hour or so before needing to step away yet again.

[the phantom]

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Fact is, unless other information contradicts it, we're considering both of you Wolves. Thus-

I'm thinking it might be in our mutual best interest to be up front about these kills because-
(1) It would help us ALL hypothesize the truth of the Unknown role. (For instance, if neither pack killed Legate I might have a workable theory.) Knowing this information could help both Goods and Bads attempt to impact the outcome in a way beneficial to their sides (just based on having more knowledge).
(2) It might help us catch the opposing pack. Now, you might say it could help us catch your own, but your own kill motivations are always going to be shrouded in the usual layer of bluff/double-bluff etc. thus we can't draw better conclusions about your pack than we can the other pack. So if your kill was well thought out that may give you the edge in that we'd learn more from the other pack kill than yours.

[Aganzir]

I started this thing over 24 hours ago but friends distracted me. Better late than never though!

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

Some things I noticed:

• Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
• I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
• On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
• It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
• Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
• Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

[the phantom]

Just examining posts made the morning after my death.

Originally Posted by Mac

He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me.
...
But why was he killed? Just because he looked innocent (many argued with him, but I don't recall anyone suspecting him) and made himself the village leader? Possible. Or maybe there is in fact a wolf (or even two? wishful thinking) among his four suspects. Did Nogrod's mates take revenge? Did wolf-Lottie or wolf-Firefoot get nervous? Possible, but it doesn't seem likely.

Hmmm... That's quite interesting if Mac is in fact a Wolf (and one of the ones that killed me). If Firefoot is a Wolf (as Lottie claims) Mac seems willing to set her up, and Ff certainly seemed to start that day ready to gun back at Mac.

Later Sally concludes that the Rune kill was an attempt to kill a rival Wolf. Morm thanks that's weird because surely the Wolves would try and kill the Seer.

Then Lottie-Wolf steps in-

Originally Posted by Lottie

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.

This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.

Originally Posted by Legate

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Nice response here- very inconclusive. Provides a reason, but not just the "right" one. But insisting on denying the idea that I was killed because I wanted to be killed- that's the bit that makes him look a little suspicious (almost as if he's an offended Wolf). But not terribly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Legate

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs.

Here he expresses surprise that both packs didn't target me (and I admit I was certainly rooting for it due to the possibility of wasting a kill). But would a Wolf say this? In other words, "I can't believe the other pack didn't do this. Thank goodness we didn't depend on them for it." But that's a stretch. If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Originally Posted by Boro

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

This probably makes it very unlikely that Boro would be in Mac's pack, as he would've argued against my killing.