Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 06-06-2015, 10:51 AM

Empowering Shasta or Nilp doesn't mean we trust Shasta or Nilp.

I hope the living abide by the plan of getting their voting out of the way early, so we know how/whether we're influencing the lynch, but unless someone up there decides to change the signals, I will vote for either Nilp or Shasta.

Barring some scenario where, oh, doing so would lynch the seer.

After all, it's not like we have much more information than the living do, at this point. Giving our vote to someone simply because we trust them, and thereby giving false information, when we don't know when/whether anyone is going to visit and straighten things out? No, I won't condone that.

So, Nilp or Shasta it is - and which, for me, depends on how they vote.

I'd actually suggest that those who leave early split their votes between the two, so that the USA can heroically vote at DL having seen Nilp's and Shasta's votes first, but of course that requires ya'all to trust us Americans when we could, after all, all be wolves. It's up to you.

Aganzir · 06-06-2015, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.

Wooooooow what's this

Rikae · 06-06-2015, 10:59 AM

Crossed with Nerwen, obviously...

Well, I can believe a Lottie-wolf, and Mac is certainly not off the menu.

But... such a message would presumably come from the dead, and it obviously doesn't.

Maybe it's some kind of... yeah, palantir-related, evesdropping sort of role.

The thing is, the seer is alive and knows if Nerwen is full of it or not.

Aganzir · 06-06-2015, 11:03 AM

Options:

Everything happened just as Nerwen said, and it's something to do with the mystery role.
Nerwen is a clever seer who dreamed Mac and Lottie wolves.
- If either of these is true, Mac reacted waaay more coolly to Rikae's reveal than I would've expected. Which kind of makes me wonder if they were wolves in the same pack and Rikae used their death to their advantage.
Nerwen is a wolf. But what would she gain from doing this? Get the seer to reveal? I need to do some math.
Nerwen is the other lover.

Need to go now but will keep checking the thread as well as I can.

Macalaure · 06-06-2015, 11:07 AM

1. This possible. Though in that case Kuru is leaving us in the dark about so many things... unclear narrations, tons of mystery stuff. Why would he give Nerwen wrong information?
2. I don't think so. Each pack is going to suspect that Lottie and me are wolves from the other pack. She has a target on her back now, this way or another.
3. I agree, hard to believe.
4. This is very possible.

Macalaure · 06-06-2015, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Why would he give Nerwen wrong information?

Wait, I got that wrong. According to Nerwen's claim, Kuru only relayed information to her from someone else. So if she is correct, then that other person is passing on incorrect information. I don't even want start guessing what's behind that.

A Little Green · 06-06-2015, 11:15 AM

What the actual ??? For now I'm leaning towards thinking Nerwen is telling the truth - am I the only one who thinks making up something like that would be a pretty unsporting thing to do? Unless of course she's the Seer herself and tries in this way to avoid getting butchered next Night.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agan

Conclusion: you should just listen to Greenie and me.

Yes, because you've already set such a great example of how innocents can't be wrong. *cough*

Rikae · 06-06-2015, 11:24 AM

Well, I feel stupid for trusting Mac, anyway.

If Nerwen does get night-killed she can tell us if she was gambling or not (and if she's resurrected we'll know we can believe her). Much as I'd like to scry Mac, it might end up being redundant.

the phantom · 06-06-2015, 11:34 AM

Yeah, it could be she's just the Seer and is trying to avoid the Night kill, but at the same time it might encourage the Ranger not to protect her.

Macalaure · 06-06-2015, 10:58 AM

I thought Firefoot just made up her assignments as an example.

It's way too early. It has to be done near the end, when at least almost all the votes are cast. What if Shasta and Nilp decide to vote for the same person?

Rikae · 06-06-2015, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I thought Firefoot just made up her assignments as an example.

It's way too early. It has to be done near the end, when at least almost all the votes are cast. What if Shasta and Nilp decide to vote for the same person?

Could be, but it also could be that no one changes them. If it's the best thing we've got to communicate with, I intend to use it.

Macalaure · 06-06-2015, 11:00 AM

I thought there was only one secret role.

Now we have an assassin and one who can deliver seer dreams?

Something is not adding up here.

Rikae · 06-06-2015, 11:09 AM

Or she could be gambling.

It does seem entirely possible I'm here because Lottie is a wolf, and, if so, it's plausible that I'm the seer, and Mac's role is unknown.

Maybe Nerwen wants to bus Lottie? Would that make sense?

Even if she was very sure Mac was in the other pack, she'd be losing her pack's advantage over them, but she could see Lottie as a lost cause (if I'm so very seerish) and want to distance herself.

Or is she trying to protect the seer? Or force the seer to reveal?

Edit: X'd with Agan & Mac

Rikae · 06-06-2015, 11:14 AM

Of course, the other lover looking to be night-killed.

Sally did mention they were plotting, and Nerwen seemed to be positioning herself to look seerish.

The thing about that, though, is that she is risking flushing out the seer (although at this point that might not be a bad idea). It could make sense if she believes the seer is most likely dead, or onto her plan.

06-06-2015, 11:03 AM	#4
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Just posting this quickly Options: Everything happened just as Nerwen said, and it's something to do with the mystery role. Nerwen is a clever seer who dreamed Mac and Lottie wolves. If either of these is true, Mac reacted waaay more coolly to Rikae's reveal than I would've expected. Which kind of makes me wonder if they were wolves in the same pack and Rikae used their death to their advantage. Nerwen is a wolf. But what would she gain from doing this? Get the seer to reveal? I need to do some math. Nerwen is the other lover. Need to go now but will keep checking the thread as well as I can. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

06-06-2015, 11:07 AM	#5
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	1. This possible. Though in that case Kuru is leaving us in the dark about so many things... unclear narrations, tons of mystery stuff. Why would he give Nerwen wrong information? 2. I don't think so. Each pack is going to suspect that Lottie and me are wolves from the other pack. She has a target on her back now, this way or another. 3. I agree, hard to believe. 4. This is very possible. Last edited by Macalaure; 06-06-2015 at 11:08 AM. Reason: clarifying

06-06-2015, 11:34 AM	#9
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Yeah, it could be she's just the Seer and is trying to avoid the Night kill, but at the same time it might encourage the Ranger not to protect her. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-06-2015, 10:58 AM	#10
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	I thought Firefoot just made up her assignments as an example. It's way too early. It has to be done near the end, when at least almost all the votes are cast. What if Shasta and Nilp decide to vote for the same person? Last edited by Macalaure; 06-06-2015 at 11:01 AM. Reason: crossed with Agan

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06-06-2015, 10:51 AM	#1
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Empowering Shasta or Nilp doesn't mean we trust Shasta or Nilp. I hope the living abide by the plan of getting their voting out of the way early, so we know how/whether we're influencing the lynch, but unless someone up there decides to change the signals, I will vote for either Nilp or Shasta. Barring some scenario where, oh, doing so would lynch the seer. After all, it's not like we have much more information than the living do, at this point. Giving our vote to someone simply because we trust them, and thereby giving false information, when we don't know when/whether anyone is going to visit and straighten things out? No, I won't condone that. So, Nilp or Shasta it is - and which, for me, depends on how they vote. I'd actually suggest that those who leave early split their votes between the two, so that the USA can heroically vote at DL having seen Nilp's and Shasta's votes first, but of course that requires ya'all to trust us Americans when we could, after all, all be wolves. It's up to you.

06-06-2015, 10:59 AM	#3
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Crossed with Nerwen, obviously... Well, I can believe a Lottie-wolf, and Mac is certainly not off the menu. But... such a message would presumably come from the dead, and it obviously doesn't. Maybe it's some kind of... yeah, palantir-related, evesdropping sort of role. The thing is, the seer is alive and knows if Nerwen is full of it or not.

06-06-2015, 11:24 AM	#8
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Well, I feel stupid for trusting Mac, anyway. If Nerwen does get night-killed she can tell us if she was gambling or not (and if she's resurrected we'll know we can believe her). Much as I'd like to scry Mac, it might end up being redundant.

06-06-2015, 11:00 AM	#12
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	I thought there was only one secret role. Now we have an assassin and one who can deliver seer dreams? Something is not adding up here.

06-06-2015, 11:09 AM	#13
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Or she could be gambling. It does seem entirely possible I'm here because Lottie is a wolf, and, if so, it's plausible that I'm the seer, and Mac's role is unknown. Maybe Nerwen wants to bus Lottie? Would that make sense? Even if she was very sure Mac was in the other pack, she'd be losing her pack's advantage over them, but she could see Lottie as a lost cause (if I'm so very seerish) and want to distance herself. Or is she trying to protect the seer? Or force the seer to reveal? Edit: X'd with Agan & Mac

06-06-2015, 11:14 AM	#14
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Of course, the other lover looking to be night-killed. Sally did mention they were plotting, and Nerwen seemed to be positioning herself to look seerish. The thing about that, though, is that she is risking flushing out the seer (although at this point that might not be a bad idea). It could make sense if she believes the seer is most likely dead, or onto her plan.