Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Rikae]

Also Boro, Lommy, Agan and Firefoot. No wolves.

Pretty bad seering, you guys. I'm terribly sorry. But why couldn't anybody have the common decency to suspect me? I'm always suspicious!

Not even you suspected me, Nog. I am disappoint.

EDIT: My next post, #239, at 9:36pm

Originally Posted by Me

Morm is looking creepy now. Why did I not look at him earlier? He was under the radar, which is weird for him, and now he comes out and starts steering things in... iffy directions. Grrr.

What do you think, Mac?

[Macalaure]

First: Sorry to Agan! I really did think you slipped, and then you acted the same way that I felt when I slipped some time ago. Should've listened to my gut and pushed a waggon against Lottie or Firefoot.

So Greenie is an ordo? Dang. For some reason, being hunter killed, I convinced myself you were a wolf during the Night, and Legate consequently the seer.

Do we know who was wolf-killed and who was special-role killed? If there is a good-aligned assassin in the game, I'd assume I was their kill. I don't see why any wolves would have targeted me last night.
So Legate and Rikae were wolf kills? Legate I understand - seer based the assumption that Greenie was on the other wolf team. And Rikae just because she was considered innocent by everyone?

Originally Posted by Rune

Also do Mac count as a dead European?

Jawohl!


Aaand here I was having fun reading the thread up until the very last post I had to catch up with.

You're the seer and you've dreamt me. Right. Nobody suspects you, and somewhere in the dead thread someone (forgot who) mentioned you could be the seer, so you snatch the opportunity. Well played. They're probably going to believe you for a good while, and depending on who the real seer is, and how innocent s/he is regarded, and how good s/he is at leaving a track, they might even continue to believe you over him/her.

You had to deliver them a wolf, of course, to be believable, and among the presently dead, I'm the most suspicious. Easy pick.
Agan and tp are innocent. Agan is virtually proven to be, and tp is extremely likely. And both are perfectly reasonable seer picks, of course.
Did you hide both your packmates among Boro, Lommy, and Firefoot? Would be bold, but why not? If one of them joins us at some point, the dead will not bother checking them.

As I said, well played.

[Rikae]

So sorry to spoil your fun, Mac. More wine?

At least tp and I can outweigh your vote at the deadline!

So anyway: I would very much like to check Legate, regardless of who joins us next. Between me and all of us, we get three roles, out of the unknowns Rune, Nog, Leggy & whoever.

Unless you want to confirm my role which would be understandable, I guess.

I hope the village manages to get their act together and vote early so we can empower intelligently...

[Macalaure]

More wine?

Yes!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, they’re having a party there, by the look of things. Every time I go back to the main page it show a different corpse has just posted.

Meawhile in the living thread:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Lommy, I’ve been asking what people think of various people. What do you think of Nilp? And Lottie? I have a particular reason for wanting to know.

Hmm what's this? Is she preparing to reveal as something?

[Aganzir]

Why do people think I thought Legate was the seer? I voted for Greenie rather than Mac because I thought Rikae was the seer. (Well not really but I wasn't going to chance it.)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

Hmm what's this? Is she preparing to reveal as something?

It looks like that! I really hope she's the Seer and has some wolfsies, and is asking for opinions on them before revealing their identities to catch some packmates. Might be wishful thinking though!

Originally Posted by Agan

Why do people think I thought Legate was the seer? I voted for Greenie rather than Mac because I thought Rikae was the seer. (Well not really but I wasn't going to chance it.)

Even more interestingly, they seem to think that I have to be a wolf because I was killed by the Hunter.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It looks like that! I really hope she's the Seer and has some wolfsies, and is asking for opinions on them before revealing their identities to catch some packmates. Might be wishful thinking though!

Could also be an ordo fishing for reactions. If the wolves think she's the seer who has some of them, it might make them backtrack quickly.

Even more interestingly, they seem to think that I have to be a wolf because I was killed by the Hunter.

Yeah because a gifted is never wrong.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

First: Sorry to Agan! :-( I really did think you slipped, and then you acted the same way that I felt when I slipped some time ago.

It's okay! I was suspicious of your insistence at first, but then going along with it seemed less and less important because your gleefulness seemed so genuine (unlike Lommy's who was all "GOTCHA you're so dumb haa haa haa"). Still, I'm super careful when I'm a wolf.

I also think Mac's reaction to Rikae's fake reveal makes him look good. It would take a lot of self control for a wolf not to do a little dance in Schadenfreude if he had reason to believe the seer had died with only one wolf.

You know what makes me laugh though? If Kuru hadn't changed the "Hunter picks her kill each NIGHT" rule to include DAYs as well, I would've hunted sally on DAY 1. And if I'd been lynched, the only information she could have brought back would've been... pretty much the only two people whose roles can be proven in this game anyway (okay okay there would've been somebody on NIGHT 3 but still).

I'm wondering - if Legate was killed as a presumed seer, the pack must have assumed Greenie was in the rivalling pack. Would they kill somebody based on that assumption, or leave it to the pack suspected by the "seer"?

It's very easy for the wolves to hide behind the "please check this person and let us know" agenda. If they can convince us to check ordos, or make it so difficult for us to vote without risking giving them wrong information, they will effectively impair our ability to influence the lynch. Especially this in Lottie's #445 was, well-meaning or not, very low-risk for the wolves:

We have fifteen Living and eight Dead. Couldn't we just assign two Living players to each Dead player, one to be given an extra vote in the case that their assigned Dead player was revealed to be predator and the other to be given an extra vote if that player was revealed to be prey? Since we have one too few Living toDay, we can assign the last possible result to the case that there is no extra vote granted, since the Dead have tied their vote. That way the Dead don't have to wait for us to vote, and we can receive their message loud and clear no matter how the voting goes down on our side.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's very easy for the wolves to hide behind the "please check this person and let us know" agenda. If they can convince us to check ordos, or make it so difficult for us to vote without risking giving them wrong information, they will effectively impair our ability to influence the lynch.

So you're slowly understanding why I was against this kind of complicated deals for information-sharing as both tying our hands and possibly misleading rather than helping the goodies while giving ample stuff for the wolves to toy with?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well, he just called Eomer "den-dweller", so... If he is the Seer, hopefully his other dream last night wasn't Mac. It'd be nice if he's paving the way for a reveal with two WWs in hand.

Earlier, he called you strategy-maker and Mac number-cruncher. I don't know if the hyphenated pet names mean anything but it's something I noticed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you're slowly understanding why I was against this kind of complicated deals for information-sharing as both tying our hands and possibly misleading rather than helping the goodies while giving ample stuff for the wolves to toy with?

Noggins dearie, I understood why you were against it. But there are still advantages to it, one of them right now being - if you're innocent - scrutinising people who loudly advocate checking you.

[the phantom]

Well well... Guess I'd better get out my Rikae page...

Originally Posted by Mac

You're the seer and you've dreamt me. Right. Nobody suspects you, and somewhere in the dead thread someone (forgot who) mentioned you could be the seer, so you snatch the opportunity. Well played. They're probably going to believe you for a good while, and depending on who the real seer is, and how innocent s/he is regarded, and how good s/he is at leaving a track, they might even continue to believe you over him/her.

Well, maybe. We'll see. We knew this would/could happen, heh. A WW would false reveal just for the pleasure of making us use our Night pick on them instead of elsewhere. You're perfectly right, Mac, but do forgive us if we seem overly trusting of Rikae, as we're rather hungry for information.

Anyway, Rikae, my early notes on you truly echo your lament. When I did my readthrough of the thread I gave G marks (for possible Gifted) plus marks (when someone seemed clearly innocent) and checks (for red flags). You received zero G marks, so if you are the Seer that is fantastic Seer play, I must say! *claps* But, but, you received zero check marks while simultaneously receiving the highest number of pluses in the village, i.e. you looked incredibly innocent. Thus if you are a Wolf, fantastic play again. (Except for the fact that being too innocent gets you killed, ha ha.)

Anyway, who would want you dead if you were the Seer. Not Green's pack, since she isn't a Wolf. You mentioned liking Mac and Morm and voiced suspicion of Lottie, so a pack with Lottie but neither of the boys in it might target you.

Originally Posted by Mac

I convinced myself you were a wolf during the Night, and Legate consequently the seer.

Yes, you'll note we hypothesized Legate's Seership here during the Night, and if he was targeted as the Seer then the pack that killed him did not include Nerwen, Lommy, or Mith, because they would've been his innocent dreams.

Now Boro listed Rikae, Shasta, Lommy, and Legate as his innocent group of four yesterday. Why wasn't he suspected of being the Seer and killed? Because he had a Wolf from each pack listed as innocent? That would certainly take him off the kill list. Or if he himself is in a pack and listed a Wolf (or two) from another pack.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, Rikae, my early notes on you truly echo your lament. When I did my readthrough of the thread I gave G marks (for possible Gifted) plus marks (when someone seemed clearly innocent) and checks (for red flags). You received zero G marks, so if you are the Seer that is fantastic Seer play, I must say! *claps* But, but, you received zero check marks while simultaneously receiving the highest number of pluses in the village, i.e. you looked incredibly innocent. Thus if you are a Wolf, fantastic play again. (Except for the fact that being too innocent gets you killed, ha ha.)

If I may ask...

what did I get plus marks for?

[Macalaure]

phantom, I agree with everything you say, except:

A WW would false reveal just for the pleasure of making us use our Night pick on them instead of elsewhere.

I think a wolf kind of expects to be a highly likely Night pick, and confirming a wolf is among the best information we can get. So I think a werewolf would rather not be picked, and not the other way around. A low-credibility false reveal doesn't benefit a wolf much at all, since all s/he gets is one day of general confusion, but a high-credibility one that people are willing to believe without a check, that is very dangerous.