Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

[Firefoot]

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 280 and 281)?

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.


Mac and Sally top my list of suspects. Agan is a third because of the reaction yesterday to what I considered a bit of a joke but she is working at acquitting herself and I feel slightly better. There are others such as Eomer and Boro that I'd like to hear more from.

[Nerwen]

So I got caught up with things and haven't had time to do the more detailed analysis of yesterDay I'd planned. So just a few comments.

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.

Then we have Form Nilping himself- some seem to think this looks innocent, but really I cannot imagine why anyone, good or evil, would give himself the third vote at that point.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

I'll third this. There's something wrong about him. Maybe I'm biased by the fact that the last time I was in a game with someone who prattled "helpfully" on and on and on about statistical probabilities, that person turned out to have fur and fangs. (Mac himself must have known that what he was doing was an academic excercise with no real practical value.) And then there's the thing I noticed toDay (#242)- it does seems to me to have that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion vibe.

Edit:x'd since morm at #285; clarification;word left out.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and I missed you too, my sun in splendour.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My internet came back up, so I thought I'd go back with my newfound ability to quote things and clarify what I was saying about the Nog votes -

Boro - 8:49
Phantom, Lottie - 8:55
Eomer - 8:56
Shasta - 8:57 (crossed with Eomer)
Sally - 8:59

So, Nog ended up receiving the bulk of the votes against him within five minutes of the deadline.

Edit: X'ed with Lottie. Also, when I said "quote" I meant "copy and paste".

[Boromir88]

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions? ~Greenie

As Rune didn't say a whole lot and even with his vote it was for someone he said he didn't want to see lynched (he was in the tie-votes camp), I'm thinking one pack decided to go no trace and are trying to set out an argument to make the reasons to kill Rune look like more and thus steer the lynch today.

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.~Nerwen

See 164:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=164

Nog stood out to me as kind of suspicious, just the way he was insisting that he didn't buy my reason for wanting to tie-votes so we don't lynch the Seer, because the odds of lynching the Seer were miniscule. In which case, I'm in the "never give me the odds" camp. I was shooting for a tied-vote, because I think that would have been the best Day 1 choice and with the late voters expressing they didn't want to vote for Agan or Form, I went with someone who I was suspicious of, in hopes there was enough support to tie the vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

Add Nilp and McCaber... I'd say that counts as "many". And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon. My point is that it all seemed to be built up out of very little, even by Day One standards.

Edit: x'd with Rikae.

[Mithalwen]

I will confess it was a lazy vote. I genuinely thought Agan was pulling a swifty and then when it was explained I really was too tired and too hacked off (remembering too late why I gave up playing werewolf) but sure that cotriving a no lynch would still be counterproductive as well as feeling to my instince unsporting.

So Agan was at that point ahead anyway so... yeah

Incidentally Nerwen, why do you think from the narrative indicates the lovers are still alive? I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure. The known unknown makes guesses far from educated. Tnighthe maulings certainly suggest both packs killed.

That of course doesn't exonerate either. I can't help thinking that instituting some strategy that basically pretty much asks innocents to take one for the team..or at least the gifted is quite a lot of help to the wolves as the ordos. Lots of lobotomised voting leaving no audit trail and narrowing the field for night kills.

[Nerwen]

Okay. I have to vote now, so-

++Macalaure
is the the best suspicion I have right now. Reasons already stated.

Just to complicate things, I am not entirely easy with the other two people who suspect him (morm and Firefoot either. Ah well. Running out of time.

I will try to be back later, though.
Edit:x'd with Mith.

[Boromir88]

All we essentially know at this point is Rune and tp were not part of the same pack (considering the narration says they were "mauled" I'm also going with the interpretation they were killed by both packs). Which is a crummy position to be in, and we won't have any solid info (possibly) until the next DAY.

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

For the time being I'm assuming both Rune and the phantom were ordo, until there comes a time when we might discover otherwise. I can't recall playing with Rune in a long time, I didn't get any wolf-vibes from him. Rune seemed to side with the phantom on having no-lynch and criticized Nogrod, so it's possible one pack killed him to set up the Nog voters. (I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

The most likely wolf, of the 3 dead, I think is Nogrod and I would love for the Dead to check him tonight, but that's choice isn't up to me.

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

For the time being though, I'm going to go with the assumption Rune and the phantom are ordos.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

OK that makes more sense. Also can we rechristen the first one BandwAgan? And also Nogawagon would be a palindrome. (Also I should shut up.)

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.

Obviously, this means shenanigans and that we should kill Lommy today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's hard to post from a phone, .

Anyway, Legate has co-opted my project for the day, which was to look into the possibility of the Nog voters saving Agan with their votes. Bah.

As for my own vote yesterday (as it's been mentioned as suspicious by Firefoot and Mac, I believe) - I'm pretty sure I mentioned why I was suspicious of Nog fairly early on (for me, anyway) because of that comment of his about ordos being fine with being lynched. It looked like he was setting up to be able to suspect anyone who was defensive about being lynched (as he actually did, with Phantom) and was the most suspicious thing I saw yesterday.

Also, I believe most of the latter votes on Nog were made at roughly the same time, though it's hard to go back and look at cross votes on my phone.

More later. I'll be checking in periodically.

[Macalaure]

I looked phantom's post over again, and didn't find anything that looked like a hint at seer dreams hidden in his list. I didn't exactly expect to find one either, though. Since, like most, I think, I don't think he looked wolfish, I assume he was killed for one or both of these reasons:
-they were afraid of a vocal, innocent-looking player organizing the village against them
-they thought they spotted a hunter hint

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation?

I read over my own post again before replying, and maybe I sounded more tense than intended (I ran out of smileys. ), but calling it really defensively? Maybe I'm being touchy here, but I don't like that wording.

I mean, if people give arguments against me, I defend myself. Especially if the arguments are not very good.

Originally Posted by mormegil

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.

[Loslote]

++morm

For reasons stated above.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.

Fair enough.

One thing though: Since the wolves in this game are wolf-hunting just like everyone else, they don't, as usual, have to sound more confused than they really are. I simply meant to state that some of the premises I was drawing conclusions from were rather tenuous.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that. In this case, however, I do not think Rune looked like a Gifted. He certainly didn't look like a Seer, anyway, at least as far as I can tell, and I haven't picked up on anything else, either. But the wolves must have thought he was something, because I don't think this is a game where no-trace kills are going to be a priority on Night 2.

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking suggests to me that either Sally is right and you didn't think anyone would come up with it, or that Sally is wrong and you, knowing what is right, consider anything which is not correct to be absurd and suspicious. But the only people who can say "of course she is wrong" are the people who know, because they were there when the decision was made.

I will not likely be back much before deadline. This will be the only day like that this game (fingers crossed), but I'll have to vote basically now or risk not getting back in time or having to vote sloppily after only having about a half an hour to read the thread. My vote at this point will probably be for morm, unless something else comes up in the next five minutes.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.

x'ed with Lottie's vote for me