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#1 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Form – if you wait for chances to get over 50-50 with lynching you’d need to give up lynching altogether: unless a seer reveals with some solid background knowledge on her/his status, every lynch is less than that.
I think I can see where you come from though (D1 chances are lowish), but trying to lynch people gives one the data one needs to make any inferences. So even if the chances aren’t near 50-50 (rather like 1/3 to 1/4 in practise) on Day1, just saying "let’s skip this Day" will give the wolves a free ride to do their mayhem and us others more or less clueless. Many Day1 lynches have been unfortunate for the villagers, but more often than not very useful when backtracking on who voted who and why - and even if we can't enjoy the results of those ponderings here in the Living Thread immediately or as such to begin with, the Dead can use them. Let's not focus solely on us living on this Day1 but also in the wider scale - the Dead can use a lot of info if we give it to them. If we do not vote or make excuses to make ties there is little to tell in comparison with a situation where someone is actually facing leaving this thread - a chance nastier for the wolves than for the ordos. Yes this game is a different beast as Agan reminded, but it is a different one also because the lynched and other dead will keep on playing - and in the end the game will be more or less decided - and is more interesting to play - in the Dead Thread (if it goes far enough). So I might just wish to stick into some gaming principles: do what you can to win and encourage others to play - that's the only way peolpe leave marks to be analysed - for the living or for the dead.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#2 | ||
Dead Serious
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Arguing that the odds never improve does less to convince me than something Thinlómien said: Quote:
Whatever the odds, we won't know if we've killed a wolf or innocent today--nor will we know the identities of the victims toNight. So... does it make more sense to play the odds straight (and avoid lynching toDay) or to take the shotgun approach and kill everyone available and hope that when the dust clears we've killed more than they have? So, while I agree with Nog that backtrackings are valuable... do we have long enough to wait for them? My inclinations are leaning more than ever to lynching no one today, but I'm getting to the point of thinking I have nothing more than gut feeling to go by there.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#3 |
Dead Serious
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Am I just stating the obvious when I ask what happens if the village spokesman ends up being a wolf? What sort of fail-safes are there if we choose a wolf for such a role.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#4 |
Beloved Shadow
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Form- if a WW ends up being "spokesperson" I don't really care so long as his communication with the Dead is similar to what I would've put. I mean- it's not like he can just give harmful instructions, because we'll all see them and call BS and the Dead will witness it.
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the phantom has posted.
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#5 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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As far as the dead thread goes, personally, I think the following;
- that we, as the living, should leave the running of the dead thread to the dead players - that we should, however, have some way of deriving information from the effects the dead thread can have on the living thread - that, honestly, I don't really know how the two above points can be reconciled. I can think of one primary hurdle that any plan to have the dead give us information with their extra vote every day will have to overcome - what if voting for the person the dead actually want to vote for will end up causing the living players to think erroneously, based on whatever plan is set up? For example, say the Seer is dead and has claimed Person X as innocent, and that Person Y is a wolf. In the Living thread, Person Z has voted for Person Y, but earlier, it was stated that if the dead give their extra vote to Person Z, it should signify that Person X is a wolf. I can't think of any real way to circumvent this problem at the moment, but it's definitely a real one (sort of like getting Manwe lynched after my death during my first run-through as Seer ![]()
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 06-02-2015 at 05:17 PM. Reason: X'ed since Phantom at 140. |
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#6 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I began reading what I cross-posted with and had an immediate reaction to this statement of Nogrod's:
Quote:
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 06-02-2015 at 05:22 PM. Reason: X'ed since Morm at 150 |
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#7 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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It's interesting to me how much discussion has been around the dead thread and how little has been around who is looking suspicious. The thought of trying to control the dead thread from the living is somewhat absurd, really. I understand that there are many well thought out and reasoned discussions around this but the reality is there will be many unknown variables and situations that present themselves. Suffice it that the dead thread will be doing their best to influence their team to win and little what we say or ask will change their mind.
This whole day has been spent talking about the dead thread, and dang it, it now has me talking more about it. I think there is certainly wolfish influence in this. I actually don't suspect Tummy of it, even though he started the whole blasted conversation. He has a way of hijacking the first day to discuss his plans...really he tries to put in measures of control. I would think those who have helped continue the conversation are those who we should be looking at. I can't remember who mentioned Mith and her comments about the special role. This didn't strike me as odd. It seemed very much in line and a fairly appropriate topic of discussion albeit pure speculation on the role itself. That role has made me think though I imagine it is to help us as I think Kuru felt the balance might have been too much in the favor of the wolves at this point. But again, that's just my speculation. What it can do is beyond my reasoning to figure out. As far as suspicious: Mac (obviously, I did vote for him) Kath--Too little posting for my tastes and a long history Nog--He continued the dead thread discussion while seeming very reasonable and thoughtful about it. That was the behavior that made me nervous. A few others but I'll have to go back and review to pinpoint some detail.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” Last edited by mormegil; 06-02-2015 at 05:38 PM. Reason: Bolding names |
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#8 | |||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I should probably just post a list of what I think about different people at the moment, but since I had already made notes (in fact making part of them during the afternoon while I was attending a roleplaying session and trying to kill a Quarut at the same time, and later on the bus home), I am going to just post them here, also for completion's sake. I still have to read through most of the last page properly, but should be back in a moment...
Aside from the "tie or not to tie" discussion and so on, of the moments that "stood out", the only weird thing about the Agan-Morm exchange to me was Greenie's reaction to it, "defensive" one: Quote:
As for my stance on the Day 1-tie idea, I am actually with what Nog and Greenie mentioned somewhere halfway page 3: the chance to lynch a Wolf are still good, the chance to lynch a Gifted considerably smaller, AND it will give us some info to start with, instead of zero info. We'll at least see whom different people voted, or whom they did not vote. I perfectly understand Form's objections against it and understand his sentiment, but I am personally against the "Day 1 are useless, boo!" (which fortunately didn't appear in this game, thanks to the activity of many) because it's only that attitude which actually makes them useless. And especially in this game, once again saying the same, so chaotic game, any piece of info helps. Because everyone can talk all they want about whether to have a tie or not, or about gardening, or about Kant, but your actions show what you truly are, not your words. Point. Quote:
Quote:
Post with what I actually think of people coming soon. EDIT: x-ed since about... somewhere around Kath's vote, and I didn't really even read all the posts around it properly yet, like I said. Gotta read everything here now.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#9 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
Which either means a very small village (as in, the last day) or that person Y has no chance of getting lynched anyway. Most days the village will be big enough that the dead will have lots of options. Folks, please stop assuming people are trying to dictate to the dead! It's all the way back in post #34: the idea is that the dead have a choice. That way the dead can both cast a vote and send an additional message. And as for me, if/when I end up on the dead thread, I'd prefer to have as much ability to get information to the living as possible. In fact, I would be rather frustrated with (and suspicious of) anyone who muddles that process. It doesn't matter who decides how the message will be sent. It doesn't require elaborate choosing of spokespeople, just an agreement well before the deadline. The strategy won't make sense if the village gets very small, because the extra vote will carry too much weight in its own right, but early on, it could be very valuable. It's interesting how many people are arguing that it either can't be done or is somehow oppressive. And by interesting, I mean suspicious. |
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#10 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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The village spokesperson could be a for-the-DAY position, so that
a) we don't leave the Village in a single person's hand for too long; b) we can have an additional test re the Dead thread role-knowing thingy. That is, 'vote for Person X if NIGHT kill A was a Wolf, vote for Person Y if NIGHT kill B was a Wolf, vote for person Z if previous DAY's lynch was a Wolf, AND vote for person W if the current spokesperson is a Wolf. If neither are Wolves, vote for person N.'
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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#11 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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I think the bigger problem remains that both the living and the dead should be happy with the spokesperson arrangement. The phantom suggested the dead should have leeway in the arrangement which theoretically would be good, but in practice I only see it as making the system (even more) unreliable. So the way I see it, either the (future) dead pledge themselves to drudgery and assisting the village, or then we will have rather unreliable information. Personally I prefer the first option out of the two, but a middle ground would of course be the most profitable (also because I'm a little worried the dead won't be motivated to participate if participating only means doing as you're told). I think we can keep talking about it toMorrow, though, and shouldn't get too sidetracked as we still need to vote toDay. (Not trying to start a discussion and kill it instantly, but rather speaking as an East European whose bedtime is past already...) edit: xed with everyone
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#12 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Ah yes, now I remember why I don't ignore the thread for several hours. O_O
I'm here, and I'm reading, but I have to go again in half an hour or so and will either vote by that time or not at all.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#13 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
2) I didn't suggest you intentionally said "hello I'm a wolf" (even though - now that you played the "why would a wolf say that" card I might reconsider...), I suggest you made a Freudian slip of sorts by accidentally revealing your wolvish perspective. And that has absolutely nothing to do with whether you fancy being a villain or not. 3) Well, you also cemented your - rather whimsically assigned; it was the typical Day1 level of reasoning - place on the top of my suspicion list by being so defensive. If you were innocent, you wouldn't be half as annoyed by me remarking on your wolvish perspective, and I suspect you're just enjoying your wolfing in this game with a nice pack and even the tiniest prospect that your enjoyment might be cut short both makes you fight back and gets on your nerves because you dislike being "busted" on something so trivial, especially if you indeed intentionally chose to comment on morm's joke from that angle and I was accusing you on the wrong grounds. ++Agan This is undoubtedly the best lead I have toDay. edit: xed with everyone after Sally
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#14 | |||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
Quote:
Basically - the intended use of the dead thread is that the dead, who know more than the living, can tip the scale of the village vote by giving an innocent or innocent-looking person a double vote. What we have been discussing is if there's a way to use the dead thread even more to our advantage, by gathering information from their votes. I still think it's a good topic to discuss, but to be realist, the most likely use for the dead thread will be the intended one. We should keep discussing it, but as morm so nicely points out, not on the expense of trying to find wolves. To be fair, I don't think that's a problem toDay though because we have to talk about something to give any vibes to each other toDay. If people abstain from voting or vote just to create a tie while not seemingly putting any energy in finding the baddies, *then* I might start getting worried. PS. Quote:
edit: xed with morm's #159 and onwards
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#15 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#16 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Just a quick one
I like the points morm and Boro raise about Nogrod. Feeling better about morm now as well.
Leaning towards voting for Aganzir at the moment. |
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#17 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Quote:
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 06-02-2015 at 06:05 PM. Reason: x'ed with Lommy and Mac |
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#18 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I would think the Lommy vs. Agan stuff looked wolf-on-wolfy, if this were a game where that made sense.
Missed this: Quote:
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#19 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I'm not willing to tie my hands at this point of the game to any such folly - or willing to give any lycantrophe a get-away basing her/his actions or words on a such a thing. We need to trust our wits and ability to think clearly - which this gang should be capable of - and not tie our hands into some general plans and rules (or give the baddies a chance to claim they did it) some people come by on Day1.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#20 | |
Dead Serious
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#21 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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It's way past 2 and I have work tomorrow.
I liked Nog's points in #141, but Shasta has a good point as well. Quote:
I'm only worried about wolves hijacking the information delivery system - even if it only happens once, the results may be severe. Anyway bedtime. ++Lommy She saw a straw and grasped at it. Her village spokesperson idea was decent but I'm partly kind of offended that she chose to question my intelligence by holding a joke against me and partly suspicious of her "ERMAHGERD SLIP!!!111 Did ya see a SLIP!!!111" approach which would probably feel forced to me even if it wasn't about me. I'm still in favour of the no-lynch, but I wouldn't mind seeing Lommy bite the dust.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#22 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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About the Dead.
The goodie-dead will try to make the village win - the evil-dead will try to help their wolfpack first and fight against the innocents in general (aka. possibly siding with their rivals if the situation is benefical for it). The dead will give an extra-vote to someone. Based on their knowledge and ratios between the good and the evil - and the knowledge they have on each other and therefore the trust they share or do not - they'll give it to someone based on their vote. So there are a lot of factors as to what ends up being their "decision". If the goodies rule there, then in the best case they'll most probably give the extra-vote to someone who they deem innocent and whose extra-vote would lynch a baddie they think or know is one - whatever the Living say or think they can require them to do - or what any "spokesperson" nominated by some villagers does. But then there are a hundred of "buts"...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#23 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Nutshell version: I would rather lynch someone toDay than orchestrate a tie. While yes, a tie can be handy later on, right now our odds of getting a wolf are as high as they're likely to get, and to squander our opportunity to fight back and allow the baddies two kills in the Night seems wasteful to me. Frittering away our lynches before the dead can impact them really only benefits the wolves.
Crap. I got distracted. I'll give another quick read, but I may not end up voting. Sorry. ![]() x'd since more or less my last
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#24 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Assuming that, I agree with the phantom: the spokesperson is whoever gives a reasonable list when the voting is done. It doesn't matter whether person X or person Y gets the extra vote, when both voted for person Z. It also doesn't matter which meaning we assign to empowering person X or person Y, as long as we're clear on it before DL. |
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#25 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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The votes so far. Nilp -> Nilp Rune -> Formendacil Mormegil -> Macalaure Lalaith -> Legate Kath -> Formendacil 2 Aganzir -> Lommy Lommy -> Aganzir A pause for thought and then a vote.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#26 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Since Aganzir looks far more suspicious to me than Form (who has two votes already) and no one seems to pick on my "let's send the phantom to be checked by the dead" -idea, I'll go with
++ Aganzir She felt wrong all Day, too happy to be the one who is on top of everything and her totally unnecessary - and weird - "liking my points" when she did not (and was getting to sleep) looks too suspicious. Like trying to feel good as the point of making such a "point". But let's make sure we know what tp is sooner than later - or there is a firm chance we regret not doing it. Good night and see you in one of the threads toMorrow.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#27 |
Dead Serious
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The votes so far.
Nilp -> Nilp Rune -> Formendacil Mormegil -> Macalaure Lalaith -> Legate Kath -> Formendacil 2 Aganzir -> Lommy Lommy -> Aganzir Legate -> A Little Green Nogrod -> Aganzir 2 Nine votes. Assuming nothing comes in under the wire, my vote will make ten. That still leaves 14, which is more than enough to tidal wave all that has come before--but we're into the final hour and who knows if all shall vote? ++Formendacil I still think a tied vote with no lynch is the way to go, so I'm going to put myself up one more. It's either that or not vote at all, and I think not voting would be a worse cop-out than voting for myself. I do think Aganzir could be guilty, but I don't think it strongly enough to put her in the lead. I'd rather trust the village to tie us up--at the very least, maybe this will force the Silent Majority to make a decision between lynching or not.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#28 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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I have this flippant wish that, when some of you are Dead, you'd get frustrated about having to give crucial information to the village and not knowing a way to do so in a non-misinterpretable fashion, only to realise that if only you'd discussed in more constructive terms how to organise this information conduit while we are all still here there should have been a better way than hoping they get your attempts to move the coin.
Anyway, for this game, I like lists. As I've said previously, I think the biggest targets of NIGHT kills are those who seem to know more about the village's composition than a blind Ordo, and so Wolves would probably hide under a veneer of being clueless or narrow-minded to hide their opinion of the village as a whole. Here is mine ( ![]() Koala
Shark-infested waters
Swarm of killer beers [sic]
Komodo dragon
Godzilla
Not that this matters, cos I've already voted.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 06-02-2015 at 07:50 PM. Reason: dragons -> dragon |
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#29 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Fenris Penguin
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#30 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
So, we shouldn't be putting the "signals" into bandwagons of less than 3. Nog, the only way it's flimsy and far-fetched is if someone insists on jumping in and arguing needlessly about what vote should mean what (and anyone who does that looks very, very furry). As long as the dead have enough options, whatever the first person says should be fine. |
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