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Old 10-14-2014, 03:55 PM   #1
A Little Green
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It's outrageously late here so I'm heading to bed, I'll post (and think) properly in the morning. For now, a quick thought -

I assume that the wolves aren't keen on bussing each other toDay since they win if we lynch an innocent. If that is true, then we can also assume that Nerwen and Shasta aren't packmates, and that Rikae isn't packmates with either of them (unless they're planning to pull off an epic Legate-180 later on). I'm not sure how much this helps, but anyway.

Other than that - I'm a bit worried about how carefully non-committal Wilwa's post toDay is. It wouldn't have alarmed me in a normal situation, but on a Day when we lose if we lynch an innocent, the wolves would have good reason to be extra flexible in who they vote for. It looks like she's trying to keep all ends open and not voice an opinion before something definite happens, exactly what a wolf might want to do on a Day like this.

Finally, a question for Nerwen: why Shasta? You might have mentioned it somewhere, but if so I missed it.
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Old 10-14-2014, 05:18 PM   #2
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Silmaril

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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post

Other than that - I'm a bit worried about how carefully non-committal Wilwa's post toDay is. It wouldn't have alarmed me in a normal situation, but on a Day when we lose if we lynch an innocent, the wolves would have good reason to be extra flexible in who they vote for. It looks like she's trying to keep all ends open and not voice an opinion before something definite happens, exactly what a wolf might want to do on a Day like this.
My post had that kind of tone because I intended for it to be the first of many contributions today, not my sole contribution, but once again my stupid real life has gotten in the way of my pretend life (I was offered a job interview tomorrow that I had to make very last minute travel plans for, my day has been insane).

The one good thing about RL stuff is I will be up very early now in the morning and can therefore wait to vote and be around for DL. Though we don't want to all make last minute votes either, the wolves will likely be making every attempt to vote as late as possible so they can have control over the outcome. My best suggestion is that we shouldn't spread the votes out too much, try to reach some consensus before voting so the 4 Ordos can maintain some semblance of control by trying their best to all vote the same way. I'm aware that it's not necessarily possible to accomplish this, but we should do our best.

Perhaps since we all have seemed to agree that Inzil is very likely innocent we let him vote first and then the other 3 Ordos agree to vote the same way no matter what? The wolves will then either jump on board or vote elsewhere. If we get an innocent than yes we lose, but if we hit a wolf we might actually have an idea of who else to look at tomorrow based on who didn't want to go along with the plan?
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Old 10-14-2014, 05:36 PM   #3
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Perhaps since we all have seemed to agree that Inzil is very likely innocent we let him vote first and then the other 3 Ordos agree to vote the same way no matter what? The wolves will then either jump on board or vote elsewhere. If we get an innocent than yes we lose, but if we hit a wolf we might actually have an idea of who else to look at tomorrow based on who didn't want to go along with the plan?
In other words, no pressure.

I could possibly vote at DL. I just wouldn't have had much chance to review posts.

At the moment, I'm waffling on who to vote for. I should be able to give things a close look before though.
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Old 10-14-2014, 07:58 PM   #4
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At the moment, innocents outnumber wolves 4-3.

The only way to keep things going to the next Day is if I vote for a wolf and all innocents follow me.

As I said, I could probably get in here in time to make a last minute vote before DL, but I would not have time to do more then give a cursory glance to posts made while I was asleep.

I have it narrowed down to two I think are the likeliest wolves, but it would be nice to have some other input if anyone else is around.
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Old 10-14-2014, 08:05 PM   #5
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Old 10-14-2014, 08:36 PM   #6
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I'm the wolf! Pick me! Pick me! Pick m--arrghl.... *is pushed back into the world of the nonexistent*
If it were only that easy.
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Old 10-14-2014, 09:11 PM   #7
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Ok, since it looks like everyone's lying low, I guess it's time to roll the dice.

++Sally

She voted for me two Days, both for what I consider dodgy reasons. The Day 2 vote was partly because of past games, by her admission.

This idea of hers that an AganSeer might on Day 1 have been buddying up to me having dreamt me as a wolf is a serious reach.

Best I can do. Here's hoping.
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Old 10-15-2014, 04:32 AM   #8
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In other words, no pressure.
Yeah, lots to put on you, I know. Hopefully you made a good choice!

++Sally

*crosses fingers*

Edit: x'ed with Inzil
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Old 10-15-2014, 04:50 AM   #9
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True, but at this point think it matters, considering the votes. Unless Wilwa appears and all three of her, you, and I vote for Inzil, Sally's getting lynched regardless. And I'm not even certain I want to vote Inzil! I'm just bothered by Rikae's vote and I'm not even sure why - no, wait, actually, I just thought of something. Inzil was the first person to vote; it wasn't necessarily mandatory that she jump on his vote at that point; I could easily be wrong here, but I don't recall Rikae being overly suspicious of Sally then. Given that Inzil could be wrong, even as a probably-dreamt ordo, why jump on his vote that quickly?

Not that it matters at this point, of course, considering the options.
I am worried by Rikae's vote, yes. And also by Sally's, in that, as I said, it would have been a very risky one for a wolf who planned on surviving.
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Old 10-14-2014, 05:24 PM   #10
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It's outrageously late here so I'm heading to bed, I'll post (and think) properly in the morning. For now, a quick thought -

I assume that the wolves aren't keen on bussing each other toDay since they win if we lynch an innocent.
True, but I would expect at least some token wolf-on-wolfing toDay- you know, just in case the lynch miscarried.

A thought: if indeed neither you nor Zil are wolves, then no wolf has been in real peril yet.

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Finally, a question for Nerwen: why Shasta? You might have mentioned it somewhere, but if so I missed it.
It's basically just a joke based on the "psychic wolf" thing. In truth Shasta had done so little up to that point that I had no idea about him. Now he's suddenly surfaced on this crucial Day- which could point either way, really.

I don't have time for more now, but will look at people later.
Edit: x'd with Wilwa.
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