WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nogrod]

Doing my first list then.

Very probably innocent:

Eönwë - house Royce (because of the voting: deciding to finally lynch Maclion)
A Little Green - house Reed (because of the voting on both Days & general reasonableness)


Leaning towards innocence:

Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin (because of pressing Maclion and basically building a case againt him - too serious-looking to be lion-onlion + speaks sense)
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos (because of vote D2)


It's complicated...

Inziladun - house Tully (I have been suspecting him especially earlier but somehow things just don't seem to add up with Mac's role known)
Kitanna - illiterate peasant (Have been suspecting from D2 onwards and probably my strongest suspicion right now - but like Greenie said: "could it be this easy?")
Encaitare - random peasant (Made a good answer to my question on her vote yesterDay but that diesn't clear other issues)
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon (Spends first evening just hanging around and sending tallies... votes late on both Days but never takes sides between the top-candidates but ducks away...)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark (that error - not knowing which baddie-side killed the seer - bothers me to no end: absolutely innocent or a double-bluff? I can see why some suspect him otherwise but...)


Sadly, no idea:

Boromir88 - house Bolton
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nogrod/Lommy, I absolutely love that you think I could have planned a deliberate error like that. I'll remember the trick if I'm ever a baddie again.

But trying to be as objective as possible (and I won't be pushing this point after this post, don't worry) I agree with you that no villain would have gotten so mixed up as I did. That's as strong an argument for my innocence as I think you're likely to get in a WW game.

Ok, now to look at some under-the-radar types. I am focusing way too much on the loudmouths so far.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My main question now is whether the lions decided to sacrifice Mac on Night 2/Day2. They can't have been happy with his being in the spotlight on Day 1.

It's down to Day 1 voting why I think Nog and Green (and Wyth) are innocent. Nog and Green stick with their vote on Day 2 (Wyth changes to Inzil) and it's Inzil, Gil and Eonwe who jump onto Mac.

Getting in while the going's good, perhaps?

[Inziladun]

My internet is randomly going out, for no obvious reason.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

It's not impossible, but I think that from an Eomer-Lion is unlikely. At any rate, he's seemed consistent and thoughtful. Not really an evil vibe there.

Of the voters yesterDay, I'm interested in the ones who avoided choosing sides between me and Mac: Coppermirror, Kit, Rikae, and Lommy. My logic says that Mac's mates would not have both voted the same way. And would both want to be in on a bandwagon that would draw scrutiny, whether mine or Mac's?

[WythDryden]

No idea:
Eönwe
A Little Green - She has placed herself in a very good position.
Coppermirror - Pretty good recent analysis at #385
Nogrod - Still strikingly seem as being innocent, though if there is anyone that I worry about having the mastermindedness to pull that off it would be him
Loslote - Feeling pretty good here. Seemed to stick out a little on D1, but since then has seemed pretty reasonable and innocent to me.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005 - Still not enough info to go on.


Maybe an idea:

Encaitare - Has been too busy to post, but that doesn't imply guilt OR innocence
Thinlómien - Has been pretty reasonable for the most part, but I get whiffs of shiftiness that I can't exactly put my finger on.
Boromir88 - Still coming off as quite cryptic. Could be IRL getting in the way, but seems to delight a bit in being more confusing than helpful. Maybe that's just a misread by me though.
Rikae - Seeming more ok, but unsure.
Eomer - Maybe the most up in the air as any of them. Good for now though.
Inziladun - With Mac's role known, he comes off looking much better. Though this past history with each other they bring up almost comes off as a little forced to me. But the amount of attention that continued here when it could've been just as effective in fewer posts has me leaning towards non-lion.

Squinty-eyed:
Kitanna - For the points made before, as well as the voting. Also, in Mac's list in #274, of the 4 people Mac says he is most comfortable with, I think Kitanna is the one he'd slip in there, I'm feeling pretty good about the others still. Maybe things are leading too obviously in her direction, but my head is spinning still, and she seems the most probable. Also her post in #226 siding with Mac about my defensiveness doesn't sit too well with me either.


I definitely feel like at least one of the lion's has been being pretty quiet. There's enough people here flying under the radar that are in a safe position merely because they haven't posted much at all. And because there's enough of that, there is a safety in numbers that they won't get chosen as it's more likely to be a random chance of getting them, rather than a calculated lynching. Good strategy on their part, but it makes me nervous.

[Inziladun]

And...internet going out again!

I hate to sound the paranoia chant, but was it planned to get me lynched yesterDay? Or was it an effort made when it became clear that Mac was still on people's minds? That unanswerable question for me colors how the non-bandwagon votes should be considered.

I'll have to go cut grass in the not-too-distant future, though I've got a little time left. I may have to step it up even more while I've got a connection.

x/d with Wyth

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Of the voters yesterDay, I'm interested in the ones who avoided choosing sides between me and Mac: Coppermirror, Kit, Rikae, and Lommy. My logic says that Mac's mates would not have both voted the same way. And would both want to be in on a bandwagon that would draw scrutiny, whether mine or Mac's?

Funny you should say that since it's been precisely us who didn't join a bandwagon that have drawn scrutiny toDay...

Also, I never like the argument that "one of the wolves probably joined the bandwagon and the other didn't" because while it may make mathematical sense, the wolves are not some programmed evil guys but individual players who make their own decisions based on their personality and whims.


edit: xed with Noggels

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Unless another and more promising scenario turns out I'm probably ready to suggest we lynch Kitanna toDay. That is both because I think she might be our best shot, but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.

I wanted to give Kit the benefit of the doubt, as she seemed busy in RL, but doing that with Mac turned out a bad idea. I was, and have been, leery of her safe-looking votes two Days straight. Can it be that easy? It was with Mac, but will lightning strike twice?

At this point I think Eomer an unlikely Lion. Same for Sally, who I would expect to be a lot more active as a baddie. And where is Steve?
If we had a Cobbler at this point, I would be tempted to say it's Boro. He really is being opaque, but I wouldn't think a Lion would want to do anything to draw such attention.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also, I never like the argument that "one of the wolves probably joined the bandwagon and the other didn't" because while it may make mathematical sense, the wolves are not some programmed evil guys but individual players who make their own decisions based on their personality and whims.

That's true, but trying to guess motives from actions is all we can do. At some point you have to say "x is likely, y not so much".

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Funny you should say that since it's been precisely us who didn't join a bandwagon that have drawn scrutiny toDay...

Do I read some contempt here?

Talking of wagons then a bit.

YesterDay got off with a mini ZilWagon (2 votes by Eomer & Lottie).

Then MacLion got a vote (from known innocent Nerwen).

It was followed by a mini EncaiWagon (2 votes by Rikae & Kitanna).

Then in close succession and some cross-voting we had two votes for both Zil (Wyth & Encai) and MacLion (Zil & Gil).

After Mac understandably voted for Zil, Greenie, Myself and Eönwë lynched MacLion.


So people did vote kind of in pairs!

Only people who didn't were Copper (the very first vote of the Day to Eomer) and one of tha last votes by Lommy (to Kitanna).

[Inziladun]

I wanted to stick around longer, but this internet thing means I should vote while I can.

I'm really not convinced about Kit by any means, but I don't have anyone that I'd feel more comfortable voting. Her voting has been safe, and there was the infamous "slip", and the stuff with Mac...

++Kit

[Encaitare]

I have the feeling everyone is just waiting in the wings to see how people are going to vote, so I suppose I should just go ahead and do it.

++Kitanna

In addition to points that Greenie, Nogrod, and Lommy have made, she was a Skip voter, and I think it's weird how she latched on to a silly comment of mine.

EDIT: Yep, here come the votes. Cross-posted with Boro, Gil, Cop, and Inzil.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Do I read some contempt here?

Contempt?? Consult you dictionary, sir.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Lommy: She's been pretty cautious and quiet this game.

Cautious and quiet, me? Are you reading the thread at all?

Nog, interesting notions about wagons. Not sure if they tell us much, though. This game is quite big so people have been seemingly trying to avoid spreading the vote too much and thus what might have been single random votes in smaller games have been random miniwagons in this game? Maybe?


edit: xed with everyone after Boro

[Nogrod]

What I was trying to say in my former post was then this: there was not only a ZilWagon yesterDay but also a mini EncaiWagon - which interestingly emerged just after MacLion had received his first vote. And I kind of remember there were couple of others voicing some concern on Encai at that time (myself at least, and Lommy or Greenie I think?).

So did Rikae and Kitanna just honestly think Encai looked that suspicious at that time - immediately after Mac's first vote - and just had to vote her then and there (especially Kit's vote aka. the latter one would look a bit dubious)? Or could it be that one of them saw a chance to open up a new Wagon to lessen the stress on Mac?


EDIT: X'd from the votes...

[Loslote]

Quick list of impressions:

Probably innocent:
Eonwe: His vote was pretty decisive yesterDay, and unless he was choosing between two fellow lions (Mac and Zil) I don't think a [b]Lionwe[b] would have voted the way he did.
Eomer: He's seemed solid throughout the game, and some of the things he's done and said would be extremely unlikely coming from a lion.
Greenie: Her voting has looked pretty good, especially yesterDay, and her posts have sounded pretty genuine.
Nog: He's looked pretty genuine this game, and his votes have been placed such that it looks unlikely that he's a lion.


Maybe innocent:
Zil: I said yesterDay that, if Mac were a lion, Zil probably was too, but I've gotten a whole lot less confident in that as the Day goes on. My theory about Mac's Day 1 vote isn't exactly water-proof, and Zil's posts toDay have been a lot more like what I'm used to seeing from his innocent self than from his evil self.
Gil: I haven't gotten enough of a read off of him to put him firmly in the innocent category, but I haven't seen anything suspicious, either.
Enca: I don't know her playing style very well, but I don't think she's been too suspicious thus far.
Wythy D.: Seems pretty innocent so far, but is doing remarkably well for a first time player - could he be getting pointers from his packmates at Night? That's not exactly grounds for suspicion, though, so I'll leave him in this category for now.

Could go one way or the other:
Cop: Something strikes me as off about Cop, but I haven't gotten a good enough read yet to say whether or not it merits real suspicion. I'll try to take a closer look later, but I probably won't have time toDay.
Sally: Could be anything at this point, and I would not know it.
Boro: Same as Sally.

Maybe not so innocent:
Lommy: She's been pretty cautious and quiet this game. Her votes have been a little fishy, too. I'd keep an eye on her.
Rikae: She and Kit have been staying out of the main current of the game for the most part. While that could be the mark of innocents keeping clear of what they think is a bandwagon on an innocent, it could also be a mark of a lion either a) staying out of what they know is a bandwagon on an innocent or b) staying out of a bandwagon on their packmate. However, I don't think both Rikae and Kit are wolves - I doubt, if they were packmates, they'd both keep out of the bandwagons - but I would not be surprised if one of them were.
Kit: See above.

I think that's everyone. This took me longer than I expected.

EDIT: xed since Nog

[Boromir88]

In a hurry not much time...

++Lommy

[Gil-Galad]

As I said earlier, another quiet day. Only one that really stands out too me is Lommy. One of my earlier suspicions from Day 1

++Lommy

[Nogrod]

Unless another and more promising scenario turns out I'm probably ready to suggest we lynch Kitanna toDay. That is both because I think she might be our best shot, but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.


What comes to possible lion-on-lion votes there are I think reasons which speak both for and against it in this particular game.

Now the fact that the seer is gone would surely add the temptation of lion-on-lions as without a deus ex machina all we can now rely on is trust.

Then again the game is big and with the bear around doing some killing as well I'd think it a bit reckless & foolish of the lions to willingly give up one of their own numbers. Which, now as I think about it, sounds like a more substantial point than the above about there not being seer anymore.

All that doesn't mean the lions would not suspect other lions when it is relatively safe (or even vote if it is "relatively safe"), but in this situation I wouldn't think voting to kill one of their own would be a good move on their behalf.

Originally Posted by Eomer

But trying to be as objective as possible (and I won't be pushing this point after this post, don't worry) I agree with you that no villain would have gotten so mixed up as I did. That's as strong an argument for my innocence as I think you're likely to get in a WW game.

I kind of like this reaction to our musings that I'm probably thinking Eomer more innocent than not - at least for the time being...


EDIT: X'd with Wyth & Zil

[Encaitare]

Okay. I'm going to make a quick list, and then most likely will have to vote shortly thereafter.

Leaning toward innocent:
- Greenie
- Wyth
- Nogrod
- Rikae

Not sure:
- Coppermirror
- Lommy
- Loslote
- Gil-Galad
- Satansaloser2005
- Eomer

Suspicious:
- Inzil (though rather less so than before)
- Boro (he's been very quiet and mysterious, which I think is unusual for him)
- Eonwe (now that I'm less suspicious of his fellow Skip-voter Inzil, I'm more suspicious of him)
- Kitanna (for the same reason as Eonwe, though others have raised some good points about her, so I'm more suspicious of her than him)