WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Encaitare]

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her. Wilwa could have been suspicious, having voted third of five, but turned out to be the Seer. So now to focus on the posting history of the remaining three.

Kitanna
On page 1, she only made a joke post. On page 2, she reiterated what some others had said, that she doesn't think targeting the Lovers should be a priority, because hopefully the Lovers will also be targeting Lions. She disagreed with Skip that a Targaryen reveal would be a good strategy. She also stated that work had been crazy busy, so her vote would likely be random.

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game. She voted for Skip, acknowledging that it wasn't much to go on, but that she found the push for the reveal to be troublesome. That was it for her posting on Day 1.

On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides. She finds [b]Thinlomien[b] and Nerwen to be somewhat suspicious. She thinks Mac's fake reveal is either a distraction of someone who is "guilty," or that he's "a crazy Ordo". She says Volo's idea to forge an alliance with the Lovers makes sense, but that the Lovers are also a threat and there's no real way to make an alliance. She agrees with what Gil-Galad says, and says:

Originally posted by Kitanna
I'm waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

She doesn't find Lottie or Sally suspicious. She points out a line of Wilwa's that she thinks could have made the Lovers nervous, where Wilwa said that if the Seer could reveal both a Bear and a Lion, it would be better to lynch the Bear first. She thinks Wilwa dreamed of either Mac, Boro, Rikae, herself, or Nerwen, but personally finds Mac suspicious. She notes that Eomer's push to find the lions could just as easily be a lion's tactic.

She later talks about G55 and her exchange with Eomer. She finds Enca's (my) response to Eomer to look strange given G55's innocence. Nogrod feels suspicious of G55, and Kit thinks that G55's strong endorsement of Wilwa could have been seen as a Seer hint.

On page 6, Kit and Eomer had an exchange where they both noted my "chummy" behavior with Eomer. Kitanna reiterates that she thinks the Lions targeted G55 because they got Seer vibes from her endorsement of Wilwa.

That's it up until now.

Final thoughts on Kitanna: Although she was the second vote for Skip, effectively starting the bandwagon, I think her reasoning is sound throughout. She acknowledges that a Day 1 vote naturally doesn't have much to support it, but I can see why she voted the way she did. I don't find Kit to be terribly suspicious at this point, although her phrasing "who cares if the lovers live until the end?" is a little odd. I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent at this time.

No more time at present to do a breakdown of Inzil and Eomer. (EDIT: This should have said Eonwe, not Eomer, as it was Eonwe who cast the final vote for skip.) Hopefully I will have time to do so before the voting deadline.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:

Originally Posted by Encaitare

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game.
On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides.

I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

[Encaitare]

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

[WythDryden]

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

Admittedly I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the different people, and I dont think that I have the time to go back and find all the quotes to guide my suspicions, but I'll lay out the list here as my gut feels. And honestly, everyone has made so many points about each of the people here that I don't think I can really contribute more to them, even if that does make me suspicious for not contributing.

No idea:
Eönwë
A Little Green
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Coppermirror
Nogrod - Seems innocent. Exploring many options and generally putting ideas on the table.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005


Maybe an idea:
Kitanna
Encaitare
Thinlómien
Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears.
Loslote
Nerwen
Rikae
Volo
Macalaure - With the poking and prodding and such of today, I'm less convinced than before that he is a lion. It seems to be the strategy to try and draw lions out of the woods, so he's looking ok here. Though I do think he could be a bear.


Squinty-eyed:
Inziladun

Ultimately I think the bear is still on the side of the villagers. Even if the kill takes an innocent they may still be operating under the intentions of trying to get a wolf. Which is why I don't think I'll be voting for Mac. Though, I'm adittedly a little afraid of voting for for Inz, in the event that he is an innocent, it may look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon there too and putting myself in a bad position. Oh well, I'm still learning as I go. Apparently I'm suspicious of more people than not. And that's subject to change.

Edit: X'd Volo

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

If they target the same person, whoever makes it there first (that is, sends their kill first) gets the credit.

If they target each other, both parties die.

(12 people left to vote, Lommy - did you forget to count yourself again? )

[Nogrod]

Bah... it's like everyone except Mac, Volo and maybe Skip whom G55 kind of "does not mention"...

That said, I might be ready to consider Kit among a few others. Adding the point Lommy & Greenie have brought fore about people defending her it might be a decent try.

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.


edit: xed with everyone, wow

[Encaitare]

As with my previous post, I won't cover everything here, but make note of the things that stand out.

Eonwe

Page 4, first and only post of the Day. Discusses the possibility of a Targaryen reveal, including what if a Lover and a Lion both fake-reveal. Votes for Skip and says this:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

This is confusingly phrased and took me a minute to parse. I think he means that Lottie wouldn't start a vote against Skip if they were both Lions, so that if Skip turned out to be a Lion, Lottie would appear innocent. But initially the phrase "fellow lion" struck me as a slip of the tongue.

Page 7, clarifies something he said about a false-reveal Targaryen potentially buying an extra day of life. Lists his general feelings, is most suspicious of Boro and Inzil.

Final thoughts on Eonwe: He hasn't really done enough posting for me to get a vibe off of him. I still feel that one of the Lions voted to kill Skip, but I'm not leaning toward this one.

[WythDryden]

++Inzil

[Nogrod]

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...


EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

[Nogrod]

I was ready to lynch Mac yesterDay before Skip as the wagon looked so spurious (actually Eönwë's late joining was the deciding thing and didn't gain the attention it deserved - fault also on me in that, as I only just remembered it now).

Now I'm a bit torn that we have the same candidates as yesterDay up front... yesterDay I would have felt fine but now it seems many are also sticking to Zil as an easy vote as well.

Blah.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...


EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

Could be, I'm not sure. I brought this up not because of Lottie, but because the use of the phrase "fellow lion" in Eonwe's post made me wonder if he was a Lion, and slipped. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but you never know.

[A Little Green]

Again, unless I'm mistaken -

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen – Mac
Rikae – Encai
Kit – Encai (2)
Wyth – Inzil (3)
Inzil – Mac (2)
Gil – Mac (3)

[A Little Green]

I almost feel like I'd prefer Kit over Mac after all, but bringing in yet another candidate seems a bit silly at this point.

[Encaitare]

I've explained my reasoning in other posts, but in summary, I have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the Skip bandwagon. Loslote was first and so is less suspicious to me. Kitanna has played very reasonably. Wilwa was the Seer, and Eonwe has not posted enough to give me a strong feeling either way. So that leaves...

++Inziladun

Though if Inzil turns out to be innocent, I will start to wonder about Eonwe.