WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

[Coppermirror]

I've looked back through the first two Days, and Kitanna's not one of the people who said they didn't know whether the Maniac was aware of their role or not (Nerwen day 1, Shasta day 3). She didn't make the mistake of thinking the role's kills were totally random (Sally day 1). It's more likely than not that the Maniac would have carefully read their role even if they didn't ask Inzil for clarification about the role's alignment. So I don't think Kitanna's claim is inconsistent with her being the Maniac.

A genuine innocent in danger would have much more reason to come forward as the Maniac toDay than a wolf in danger would to fake reveal. If Kitanna is the Maniac as she says, then if she thought she was in serious danger she would have no choice but to reveal like this, given that if there's a bad lynch toDay, we're sunk unless the Ranger makes a save in the Night or the Maniac is Night killed. Although...judging by the contents of her posts toDay, it seems she didn't realise this? So if she's the Maniac, she didn't factor that in. Still, even revealed, a Maniac is a big asset.

But if Kitanna's a wolf, she's got much less reason to come forward like this even if she thinks she's in a lot of danger. And since she said she had to leave for the night after her post, that would explain why she made the post ASAP rather than waiting until later. Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

I don't know if we should treat Kitanna as innocent for certain, but she's at least someone who shouldn't be lynched toDay on the information we currently have. The risk that she's telling the truth is too high.

[Nerwen]

Ugh! Scratch what I just said– we *are* 5:3! I was looking at the wrong post before. (That’s what I get for trying to work and play WW simultaneously.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I've looked back through the first two Days, and Kitanna's not one of the people who said they didn't know whether the Maniac was aware of their role or not (Nerwen day 1, Shasta day 3). She didn't make the mistake of thinking the role's kills were totally random (Sally day 1). It's more likely than not that the Maniac would have carefully read their role even if they didn't ask Inzil for clarification about the role's alignment. So I don't think Kitanna's claim is inconsistent with her being the Maniac.

A genuine innocent in danger would have much more reason to come forward as the Maniac toDay than a wolf in danger would to fake reveal. If Kitanna is the Maniac as she says, then if she thought she was in serious danger she would have no choice but to reveal like this, given that if there's a bad lynch toDay, we're sunk unless the Ranger makes a save in the Night or the Maniac is Night killed. Although...judging by the contents of her posts toDay, it seems she didn't realise this? So if she's the Maniac, she didn't factor that in. Still, even revealed, a Maniac is a big asset.

A big asset to whom? If she’s the Maniac, the wolves know not to kill her at Night, while the rest of us still can’t afford to treat her as a known innocent.

But if Kitanna's a wolf, she's got much less reason to come forward like this even if she thinks she's in a lot of danger. And since she said she had to leave for the night after her post, that would explain why she made the post ASAP rather than waiting until later. Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

I don't know if we should treat Kitanna as innocent for certain, but she's at least someone who shouldn't be lynched toDay on the information we currently have. The risk that she's telling the truth is too high.

I concur– but that’s also why this might actually be a rather good move for a wolf under suspicion.

Anyway, I said I was going to do that Lottialysis. I had a whole lot of things come up, but maybe I can find time now.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A big asset to whom? If she’s the Maniac, the wolves know not to kill her at Night, while the rest of us still can’t afford to treat her as a known innocent.

An unrevealed Maniac is more valuable than a revealed one, increasingly so as the game progresses, but a revealed Maniac certainly beats a lynched Maniac, especially on a day when a bad lynch most likely means the end of the game. That said, I'm not sure that Kitanna really was in the sort of danger she thinks. I need to read over Day 2 again more carefully.

If Kitanna is really the Maniac, and she gets lynched the way she initially suggested, she's more likely to hit an innocent than a wolf. The odds aren't quite as awful as I thought at first glance, but it's still not a good idea.

Not many people have shown up yet toDay, so there's still the possibility of there being a counter-reveal from the real Maniac if Kitanna's a wolf.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

That said, I'm not sure that Kitanna really was in the sort of danger she thinks. I need to read over Day 2 again more carefully.

I was a lynch candidate D1 and D2. I was wrong about Legate. I was wrong about Nog. After that I was unlikely to be mistaken as the seer and killed in the night. It would be easy for the wolves to get me lynched today. I'd say I was in adequate danger.

[Nerwen]

Lottie, Day One

#7. Banter.


#64. Opposes Lommy's suggestion that the Maniac reveal. Finds Greenie's vote “more innocent than not”. Lommy also seems innocent, Legate seems a little suspicious “for no real reason”. Nog seems “mostly fine”. Joking requests that some say something incriminating.


#79. Vote-post (Legate 1)

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'm really not thrilled with any of the options so far. I've still got a bad feeling about Legate, but I don't have anything concrete, and I'm not completely comfortable voting for him. I'd be more comfortable with him than with the other three on the table, though, so...

++Legate

Comments: The wording of that vote-post could well have looked like a Seer making sure no-one would think she had actually dreamed the person she voted. Only… apparently not, since the wolves killed Greenie instead.

Nothing much there otherwise– she only mentioned one still-living person (Lommy), and only in passing.


Lottie, Day Two

#103. Doubts the wolves thought Greenie was the Seer (theory already put forward by Coppermirror at #97 and Lommy at #98); believes she was instead chosen as a safe kill.


#134. Flags Kath's vote-post/suspicion list at #128.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So this caught my eye as being...off. I don't know Kath's playing style very well, but this post of hers came off as being at once flippant - "they are both clearly self preservation votes", "I rather feel lynching sally or Kitanna would give more information" - and, at the same time, almost grasping at suspicions. For one thing, her suspicions about Kit and Sally are flimsy at best, but she phrases them as though they're simple and clean-cut and obvious. She mentions Nog, Nerwen, and Lommy, but doesn't actually say anything about them - basically a "I thought they might be suspicious but I don't know" kind of statement that doesn't do anyone much good. I'm not at all happy with this vote, and Kath has definitely jumped to the top of my list.

#138. Makes a list.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Suspicious About
Kath - I've mentioned my problems with her vote earlier.
Coppermirror - Hasn't posted all that much, but what he has posted has been really non-committal. He voted Sally just because of Greenie's death, which could have been a wolf planning for an easy frame and not expecting the village to pass up the lure.

Unsure About
Nogrod - I don't necessarily suspect him, because he hasn't done anything suspicious, but I definitely don't trust him either.
Boro - He doesn't seem like normal Boro to me, but that might even be a sign of his innocence - he's normally a much more subtle wolf.
Nerwen - I haven't got a real read on her yet, but she certainly hasn't done anything to make me suspicious.
Shasta - I don't have a read on him. Hopefully his schedule will allow for more psychicing toMorrow!
Sally - I feel better about her than not, but I'm not willing to move her down a level just yet.

Feeling Pretty Decent About
Kitanna - I know she's been under some suspicion thus far, but I don't see the reason for it. She looks pretty good to me.
Lommy - She's looked innocent since Day One, which should maybe be worrying, but I'm comfortable with her for now.

Comment: Could this have been taken as a Seer’s list? It might point to either Kitanna and Lommy as innocent, or Kath and Coppermirror as wolves.

After this, she becomes very active in the “Seer-Greenie” debate.


#145.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Originally Posted by Kitanna
You must think me a mighty foolish wolf to so blatantly defend Sally as a packmate.

I don't know if Sally is actually guilty, but I know I'm not. And I don't think Sally is a foolish enough wolf to night kill someone who leads to clearly to her. So I'm not sold on her being guilty right now.
Yes. Yes, that exactly. Everyone keeps insisting that Greenie was a Seer kill, and I don't buy it at all. If she was a Seer kill, it was a dumb move on the wolves' part - if she was a Seer kill, then the wolf would have to be Sally, and we all know that. It's obvious. It would be the most obvious Night kill a wolf could make, and I do not think Sally would have done it. You know what it could have been? An easy frame. I mentioned Cop earlier as potentially having killed Greenie during the Night with the intention of using that death to frame Sally earlier - it looks like that argument could apply to Nog and maybe even Lommy as well.

#146. Emphatically disagrees with Nogrod (who at #147 suggests the kill implicates Sally

Originally Posted by Lottie

Why would the wolves have thought she was a Seer at all? She didn't talk like a Seer. If anything, if she were a Seer, I'd read her vote post as saying in giant neon letters, "I DIDN'T DREAM SALLY THIS IS NOT A DREAM”:

[Quotes Greenie]

"Nothing but a hunch" "I don't feel comfortable voting, but I'd feel less comfortable abstaining" "Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing" These are not the things a Seer would say if she had dreamed a wolf. These are things a Seer would say if she wanted to make sure, if she died overNight, no one would think she'd dreamed this person. I in no way find this adequate reason to kill Sally.

#151. (Replying to Nog at #149, #112.)

Originally Posted by Lottie

Making a list is Seerish? Enough to get her killed? I don't think so. Anyway, if she were making a Seer List Post, I think she'd have committed more than just "Something there?". Something there says to me, "That caught my eye. Better watch her" not "SHE'S A WOLF I DReAMED IT". And a Seer trying to cover her knowledge? Right. So what you're saying is, "I know it doesn't look like she looked like a Seer but the wolves thought she was a Seer BECAUSE she didn't look like a Seer you know what I'm saying" and I really do think you're trying to frame Sally at this point, because this is just too weak an argument, especially from you. So...

++Nog

#152. Makes a tally.

And that’s it. Self-evidently, she was wrong about Nogrod. But could she have been right about Sally– i.e. could her heated defence of Sally have been taken as evidence that she’d dreamed her (innocent)? Or were we meant to think that (and something on the list is the real reason)?

EDIT:formatting.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm on my way to work for the day. I haven't had a chance to read a thing, but I'll do so when I return four hours or so before the DL. *poofs*

[Boromir88]

It's going to be another one of those days where I have to vote early...although not as early as the last day.

Thoughts are...I believe Kit's reveal. It's a must to get a wolf today but at least there's still all 3 gifteds to work and I think at this point in the game it is best to have a revealed maniac. It's not ideal but best when we need to get a wolf today.

[Thinlómien]

Before anybody votes (and since I don't know when I will be online toDay), I guess I'm obliged to step in.

I'm the seer.

Nerwen is a wolf.

Shasta is innocent.

Kitanna is indeed the maniac.

If you want clues, go back to my very first post. The very first thing I say is "first things first". I have been following that rule and started every Day by mentioning first the person I just dreamt of (Nerwen on Night1, Shasta on Night2 and Kitanna last Night). I even applied this to my list post yeterDay because I was afraid I was being too vague.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and, not voting yet in case something unexpected happens (remember guys, the last one to get the most votes dies if there's a tie).

[Kitanna]

I'm the seer.

Nerwen is a wolf.

Shasta is innocent.

Kitanna is indeed the maniac.

I was beginning to wonder if you might be the seer because you voted Sally two days in a row and I don't know why a wolf would do that. But you say Nerwen is a wolf, you have put her on all your suspect lists. So either you're trying to fool us or you didn't want the wolves to figure you out right away. Both are logical explanations for not voting Nerwen. I'm going to look over your posts before work to see if I trust your claim. I want to believe because it means you can remove doubt about me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I was beginning to wonder if you might be the seer because you voted Sally two days in a row and I don't know why a wolf would do that. But you say Nerwen is a wolf, you have put her on all your suspect lists. So either you're trying to fool us or you didn't want the wolves to figure you out right away. Both are logical explanations for not voting Nerwen. I'm going to look over your posts before work to see if I trust your claim. I want to believe because it means you can remove doubt about me.

If Sally is actually innocent, I'm probably going to die laughing. I simply thought she looks a lot like a wolf, and I didn't want to draw attention to myself by voting Nerwen on Day1. I also preferred multi-tasking ie. going after different people at Day and Night, so I didn't check Sally on Night2 but instead Shasta. Last Night my choice was between Sally and you, and I thought knowing your role would have been more helpful. Turns out it was the other way around. That being said, I'm not actually so suspicious of Sally anymore. I will need to look at Nerwen's interactions with people later toDay.