Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

Also, doesn't anyone else see the gaping hole in Shasta and Greenie's logic?

It's quite obvious that if Lottie and I were wolves, the only reason for her to come out of hiding would be if I were Saruman, because otherwise she would get to use her Saruman powers once I was lynched. So, clearly the village would then go to lynch me anyway, and her coming out of hiding would just be damaging. It just doesn't make sense.

[McCaber]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Well, I couldn't very well say you were innocent explicitly. I was still trying to hide when I posted that - I figured that consistently supporting you over Eonwe was a subtle enough hint without not having any "reason" at all to think you might be a wolf. So I tried to find something that wasn't completely off-the-wall.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

[Nerwen]

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

[Eönwë]

A sudden thought:

If you are the real seer and you still haven't revealed, you need to do so ASAP. If it turns out Shasta and Lottie are actually the wolves, they have a certain 50/50 chance of winning.

[Eönwë]

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

EDIT:X’d with Steve.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

All I'm saying is that it seems far-fetched for a wolf to do what she did for such an uncertain payoff. Even if we were wolves and she averted the vote for one Day, there's still a strong possibility that the village would go for me the next Day to test out Shasta's claim.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:
How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

[satansaloser2005]

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).

And become a sorcerer?

Originally Posted by mcCaber

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

Well, thanks for advising Saruman, McCobbler!

[Nerwen]

Here’s something that struck me:

#308

Originally Posted by Lottie

Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve.

You are, then referring to the following sequence of posts on Day 3?

#249.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm having the strangest of feelings that Nerwen and Eönwë might both be wolves after all...

#251. [Replying to an earlier post of Lommy’s]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

#253. A suspicion list, from which I’ll quote the relevant section:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).

Lottie, not only is there no internal evidence that Lommy’s arguments are following your lead, the post is marked “xed with all”– which ought to include you, as the poster immediately before her. You didn’t notice that? And even if it weren’t so, I really can’t see how even the most paranoid Seer could read all that into what looks to me like a standard example of Lommyish flip-flopping.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And become a sorcerer?

Correct.