Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Oh, honey, that's cute. Really. It is.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

Yeah, I was pretty panicked over yesterDay. Knew I'd blown it. Whoever you are, thank you, Ranger darling for saving me.

I could've drawn this out, seen how it all went down, tried to find the other sorcerer...but the thing is, I already know both of them. :P

Shasta must be a sorcerer, what with his false reveal, and last Night, my dreams proved fruitful and I discovered that the final sorcerer is Greenie.

Lommy, dear, you were right all along.

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

[McCaber]

*monocle pops out*

Good lord! Now this has gotten interesting.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought that might happen. Well, that's all to the good then!

Now that we know that the last two sorcerers are Eonwe and Lottie (hi, dear, thanks so much for showing up), we simply have to decide which one is Saruman and kill that one first. I'm assuming, at this point, that the wolves obviously know which is which - otherwise, what's the point of Lottie fake revealing? - and thus, are either going to:

A: Try to get me lynched (a tactic they appear to be going for), or, failing that -

B: Try to get the non-Saruman wolf lynched to throw dissent into the ranks.

Lottie's fake reveal points at Eonwe being Saruman, in my opinion - given the amount of pressure I put on him being lynched, she would have had to try something in order to attempt to elongate the game. Unfortunately, Lottie's blown it with her dreams. Let's take a look -

Firstly, Lottie claims not to have dreamt on Night 0. Isn't that convenient? (By the way, my Night 0 dream was Nerwen. Old habits die hard, I suppose. )

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.) In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

In any case, my other dreams were Night 1 Lommy, Night 2 Boro, and last night's Eonwe. Cue me being so very annoyed as one of my known innocents proceeded to lynch another.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Either way, we need to get whichever of Eonwe and Lottie is NOT Saruman today. I'm obviously a goner tonight (unless neither the Ranger nor the Wolves targeted me last night, which could be possible, considering I was being gunned for fairly hard), and so probably won't be around to ferret out the new wolf should we be wrong.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.)

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Hesitant to save Steve? I voted the way I did purely for that reason! I didn't suspect Boro. I didn't have an opinion on Boro. But I knew Steve was innocent, and I knew Boro had a 1/5 chance (roughly, assuming Cop and Cabbie to be innocent) of being a sorcerer. Therefore, I thought he would be a better lynch than Steve...but that doesn't mean I felt at all okay with lynching someone even though I didn't actually suspect them.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve. Ah well, it all worked out in the end!

EDIT: xed with Shasta

[Nerwen]

Well, I think I’ll leave our two candidates to fight it out for a bit, while I go and examine their track records.

[Nerwen]

Day One

Lottie

#8. Banter. (In which you can perhaps read either Seer– or wolf- hints if you really want to, but I think it’s just banter.)


#32.
Feels “pretty good” about Coppermirror. Is “a bit shaky" on Greenie but “leaning innocent”. Legate and Greenie’s squabble seems innocent-on-innocent, though also possible from two “very bold” wolves. On the whole thinks them both innocent, but “with a question mark”. Lommy seems “a little less innocent, but nothing that shoves her into ‘terrifying sorcerer’ territory yet’. Has no read on Zil, Kath or me, and thus will be focussing on us. Mentions being busy that Day.

Comment: Although Lottie describes this post as “getting down to business”, she effectively says nothing much about any player apart from Cop, leaving it open to herself to suspect, or not suspect, anyone else at short notice. Well– it was very early in the Day, after all, and only her second post.


#71. [Replying to Kath at #54– the quote refer to Lottie’s comments on Legate and Greenie]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Oh, honey, I never commit to solid statements! I'm a philosophy major.

Seriously, though, this post just made me rather uneasy about her. A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers. It could just be Day-1 lack of proper suspicions and trying to get traction, but it doesn't sit well with me.

#88.
Replying to Coppermirror at #86.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think your reaction here is wonderfully innocent, and I'm pretty okay with your first Controversial Post. At this point, I'm fairly certain you won't kill me in my sleep.

Legate's reaction to the Cop Controversy is also interesting - he doesn't jump on it as further reasoning to vote you, which could speak well for his non-sorcererarity, but he's experienced and might be wary of jumping on a bandwagon - though if that's the case, he wound up voting for you anyway, so I'm leaning innocentish on him.

This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.


#89. Vote-post.

So we have a triple tie between Cop, Kath, and Legate, with no clarifying rules on tie-breakers? Well then.

++Kath

I find her far more suspicious than either Cop or Legate.

A somewhat fishy vote– somebody mentioned later that Lottie here seems relieved to have her choices narrowed down, and I tend to agree with that.

EDIT: And Lottie’s final post of the day was “That clears that right up”, with an eyeroll emoticon, in response to Holby’s re-creating the tie with her vote on Legate.


Shasta
#46. “Hi, I’m here” post. Also mentions being busy.

#84.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Argh. Something's come up and I'm not going to be able to spend the time I'd like reading what's happened today.

Moddess Sally, I abstain from voting today.

And that’s it from Shasta for Day One.

Conclusions: Ugh. Shasta is an enigma and Lottie is a conundrum. In the context of Day One only, her comments about Cop look distinctly Seer-ish– however, Lottie herself has said she *didn’t* dream Cop, or indeed anyone. Wolf laying ground for a false reveal, then? But in that case, why didn’t she stick with Cop as her first dream?

Perhaps later Days will provide answers.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.

I didn't think it would be a problem - I didn't think I'd been able to dream yet, and I assumed that was the general consensus.

[Loslote]

Picking up Shasta's Saruman question.

It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first...after all, they knew the real Seer was still around, and chances were pretty good that I'd dreamt a wolf. They might have gone into this knowing it was suicidal and relying solely on the Saruman power. That'd be a bit riskier, though, and I'd guess that our Saruman is Greenie.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Shastanis Althreduin]

All well and good, but a question -

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1

How does one defend someone on Day 1 if they haven't dreamt them until Night 2, I wonder?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

All well and good, but a question -





How does one defend someone on Day 1 if they haven't dreamt them until Night 2, I wonder?

Nnn. I meant Day...what Day was yesterDay? Day 3? Sorry. Typo.

EDIT: xed with Our Beauteous Moddess

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nnn. I meant Day...what Day was yesterDay? Day 3? Sorry. Typo.

EDIT: xed with Our Beauteous Moddess

I see.