Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.

Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Steve

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.

Originally Posted by Steve

The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):
Quote:

I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."

[Thinlómien]

Alright! Quite glad about the recent turns of events as they clarify quite a lot of stuff (not to mention that we're one baddie down). Now, let's go and comment on stuff:


YesterDay

Originally Posted by Copper

Oops, Steve and Eonwe are not different people. Scratch that.

Maybe I'm tired but I totally cracked up at this.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Seem pretty good
Shasta
Kath
Lommy
McCaber (for now)

Don't particularly suspect
Boro

Something dark may lie beneath
Nerwen
Lottie

Suspicious
Cop
Greenie

What!?
Echo
Holby

I don't like this list at all. It seems lazy and mostly just echoing other people's opinions, especially lumping Holby and Echo in one category of confusion, it feels like Eönwë is trying to fish sympathy or goodwill (maybe not consciously) by joining in OMGing over Holby and Echo's weird behaviour. (Seriously, I think their "weirdness" was greatly exaggerated in this game and I admit taking some part in that too.)

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

My point that Lommy didn't seem to have realised is one of the biggest advantages the village has in this game, IMO, which is that it started with a Day phase. This means that although the sorcerers probably knew who the others were, they had no time to talk to each other and make plans. After Night #1, they are likely to have made contact and plans. They have a potential weakness in the switch between those times. This is something that innocents should be watching out for.

Then we just have different views on the topic. In my experience (admittedly I haven't been a wolf in ages so if you guys have developed new wolving routines in the past couple of years I wouldn't know ), wolves seldom make grand plans on Night1 anyway, it's mostly chatter and bonding and maybe minor planning plus warning packmates like "I will try to avoid voting for you guys but if you act really weird I'm gonna vote you" so I see no big advantage in them not being able to talk on Night1.

Originally Posted by Eönwë, 3min before the DL

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Cop
Kath -> Cop (2)
Lommy -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Cop (3)
Lottie -> Holby
McCaber -> Holby (2)
Cop -> Holby (3)
Holby -> Nerwen (2)
Echo -> Holby (4)

Originally Posted by Eönwë, 2min before the DL

Is there anyone else left to vote that's around now? I don't want to vote Cop and cause a tie.

Now if Eönwë is a wolf this is pretty freaking bold and my hats off go to him.

Speaking of the vote count above, it's pretty weird Holby didn't vote for Cop and try to save herself but instead went for Nerwen who only had one vote. Does this mean Cop is guilty, or that Holby was just being a bit careless (which she was before)?


ToDay

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Steve–

Since the person to whom Echo suddenly switched suspicions at the start of Day Two, and continued to pursue throughout the Day without giving any concrete reason, all the while muttering “I fear lest I be killed for my knowledge...” etc, etc. was, in fact, a wolf– well, it looks pretty straight-forward this time. I don’t think we need any elaborate theories to explain it– it would have been very surprising had they not killed her*.

Totally agreed.

Originally Posted by Boro

I wouldn't put Kath in the no-doubt innocent category, but she's the one I'm going to trust the most for the time being (stop getting so confused! ). If they had gone after Echo as the seer, then the sorcerers would have to think everything Echo said was right. (That being Holby = sorcerer and suddenly backing off Kath after the Day 1 vote)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

I agree that Kath looks pretty innocent now. It occured to me already on Day1 that Echo being the seer who dreamt of Kath might explain their weird behaviour and wouldn't consequently have been surprised if they had died already on Night2, so I'm totally ready to follow this logic.

Originally Posted by Copper

I'm either the Protector Wizard or the Pact Mage. I'm not the Aura Reader. I'd rather not say which of the other two I am at this point unless it's strictly necessary.

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time. Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that) and Nerwen is putting effort into this game in a way that suggests innocence to me (I know I voted her yesterDay and my minor suspicions concerning have gone nowhere, I'm just pushing them back at the moment because they don't seem relevant in the big picture) - it looks like she's actually thinking about who the wolves might be, not just hanging around. Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time. Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that) and Nerwen is putting effort into this game in a way that suggests innocence to me (I know I voted her yesterDay and my minor suspicions concerning have gone nowhere, I'm just pushing them back at the moment because they don't seem relevant in the big picture) - it looks like she's actually thinking about who the wolves might be, not just hanging around. Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

Got caught up with the Eonwe-situation. Besides, there’s not really much we can do about Cop’s reveal at present. I’d already thought she had to be one or the other, so the reveal doesn’t really surprise me– and I can see the point of making it ambiguous– yet, as you say, that’s something that would be very much in a wolf’s interests as well.

[satansaloser2005]

The sorcerers were able to whisper for a few moments (read, hours) before the game began.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlomien

Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that)

True– but I have been burned quite a few times through thinking “a wolf would never vote like that”.

Anyway, since I can’t put it off any longer

++Steve.

This may look like retaliation, but even before he made that odd attack on me, I’d been uneasy about him because his speculations on the Night-kill seemed rather forced, as though perhaps he was just trying to get the village to waste time on Echo's posts. And the attack on me also seems forced– as I said, perhaps from a wolf looking for a way to capitalise on Holby’s dying vote.

That’s one way of looking at it. To be fair, another is this: Innocent Steve is highly suspicious of Greenie and Cop, to the point of seeing my Echo-analysis as somehow a defence of them (which it isn’t– I merely argued against his theory that the kill itself actually points to them), leading him to suspect me as well.

Sorry I don’t have anything better, but nobody else has been around most of the Day, so I just haven’t have much to go on.

EDIT:X’d with moddess.

[Boromir88]

I wish I could be my standard active self and I'm actually able to keep up on what's happening well enough, but just not much time to get much written out or organized. But the good news is I find myself enjoying this whole WWing all over again.

Ok so I'm not sure I'll have time to post all of this now, before needing to complete a few more errands, but hopefully I'll be able to finish when I'm back.

Part I.

For today, I'm not interested in voting for...

Kath
Cop
McCaber

With the possibility of Saruman lurking we can't forget he can turn someone into a sorcerer in a snap, but I don't think we have to worry about that today. Kath I think for the Echo kill, I'm saying no interest in voting for her.

Cop's gifted reveal makes sense and while I see the point it's a clever move to say "I'm either the Ranger/Hunter" but at this point, Cop was under some heavy suspicion last night and nearly the entire time was hinting at probably having to spill something. I would think a sorcerer would try a fake seer reveal if under threat of lynch.

I think it was Eonwe, or possibly Cop, or both which have questioned McCaber's "other lover reveal." I just don't think that's a move a sorcerer would make, I mean McCaber might have been looked at more since he didn't show the previous day, but it's not like he was starting under serious suspicions. Plus, let's say McCaber is lying, and Legate also wasn't the other Lover. Then that would mean the Lovers would either know eachother at this point, or still be searching for eachother...so it's just not a sensible fake reveal for a sorcerer. I suppose it's possible both Legate and Inzil were the lovers, and therefor no one would be able to reveal McCaber as a fraud, but that would be a cruel twist of fate...and still wouldn't explain why a sorcerer-Cabbie would say he was a lover.

Those who I need to start watching more, but probably something I'm going to have to put off for now...

Lommy
Greenie
Shasta

Those I'm most feeling are suspicious and possibly vote for...

Eonwe
Nerwen
Lottie

Explanations for those two lists will have to come in my Part II.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It doesn't appear too much has happened today. It's been pretty well agreed upon that Echo died due to looking like a Seer - the only other thing of real interest is the Nerwen/Eonwe spat, which I'm going to have to take a closer look at.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

On to my heart and Eonwe -

The first salvo is Eonwe at #232.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

Considering that Eonwe posted three times at the beginning of the day when one would have sufficed...

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...


I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.


You mean Holby..., right?

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

Moving on, Nerwen continues -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):



Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

Here Nerwen points out a seeming contradiction in Eonwe's logic - calling the evil Holby dream as "least likely", then turning that on its head and saying it was "most likely".

Eonwe responds -

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.


Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.


The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):




Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation? This first paragraph really smacks to me of wolvish thought-process. Not something I normally put much stock in when considering someone's guilt or innocence, but this is really blatant.

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

And then Eonwe proceeds to back off entirely. An innocent refocusing his energies, or a wolf realizing he's bit off more than he can chew? At the moment I'm leaning towards the latter.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.


I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."

Nothing too much to say here, this is pretty solid. Although I don't really know if I buy the whole "wolf on wolf" thing.

The radiant moon finishes by voting Eonwe -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

True– but I have been burned quite a few times through thinking “a wolf would never vote like that”.

Anyway, since I can’t put it off any longer

++Steve.

This may look like retaliation, but even before he made that odd attack on me, I’d been uneasy about him because his speculations on the Night-kill seemed rather forced, as though perhaps he was just trying to get the village to waste time on Echo's posts. And the attack on me also seems forced– as I said, perhaps from a wolf looking for a way to capitalise on Holby’s dying vote.

That’s one way of looking at it. To be fair, another is this: Innocent Steve is highly suspicious of Greenie and Cop, to the point of seeing my Echo-analysis as somehow a defence of them (which it isn’t– I merely argued against his theory that the kill itself actually points to them), leading him to suspect me as well.

Sorry I don’t have anything better, but nobody else has been around most of the Day, so I just haven’t have much to go on.

EDIT:X’d with moddess.

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I would think if Cop was a sorcerer trying to pull off all the stops to hold off being lynched she would be making a false seer claim. Therefor the "I'm either the protector/hunter wizard" I'm going to take as genuine.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't like this list at all. It seems lazy and mostly just echoing other people's opinions, especially lumping Holby and Echo in one category of confusion, it feels like Eönwë is trying to fish sympathy or goodwill (maybe not consciously) by joining in OMGing over Holby and Echo's weird behaviour. (Seriously, I think their "weirdness" was greatly exaggerated in this game and I admit taking some part in that too.)

Well, that was just how I saw it at the time. I had actual suspicion for Cop and Greenie, I had bad feelings about Nerwen and Lottie, and at that point Boro seemed a little less innocent than the others. I didn't really think it worth it to focus on Holby and Echo, because playing like that would either get them killed early on (in which case trying to analyse their posts would not count for much) or keep them in for a long time (in which case I'd have more time to look at them more carefully). Either way, my time was very limited that Day (less than an hour), so it did not seem wise, especially when even if they were both guilty there'd still be another wolf about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Speaking of the vote count above, it's pretty weird Holby didn't vote for Cop and try to save herself but instead went for Nerwen who only had one vote. Does this mean Cop is guilty, or that Holby was just being a bit careless (which she was before)?

Holby's actions could be used to argue for either (or both) Nerwen or Cop's guilt or innocence. It's probably best not to put too much stock in the vote of a dying wolf.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

Well, Cop basically already revealed yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

And it's quite a sneaky reveal because if she's not, it requires two reveals to disprove, which isn't going to happen. So we can't do much until more comes to light. And I was a little preoccupied...

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

I would think if Cop was a sorcerer trying to pull off all the stops to hold off being lynched she would be making a false seer claim. Therefor the "I'm either the protector/hunter wizard" I'm going to take as genuine.

I'm not sure about this - the hunter/ranger-reveal is far less risky because a) it's practically impossible to disprove and b) it doesn't require saying anything else. Meaning that if you fake reveal as a seer, you need to be able to elaborate on your dreams and preferably point to hints in your previous posts or something. You practically can't blunder a ranger/hunter-reveal, but a seer-reveal you can.

That said, I won't be voting Cop toDay. I think it's best we wait and see what happens during the Night. So that leaves
Kath and McCaber who I'm definitely not voting,
Lommy and Shasta who keep giving me good vibes, though I might have to look at them more closely later,
Lottie who also looks quite good to me, though to a slightly lesser degree than the two previous ones,
Nerwen and Eonwe whose squabble made both look worse, and
Boro who I feel slightly concerned about.

Originally Posted by Shasta

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

This is an interesting point, especially combined with her yesterDay's vote post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I really just can’t make up my mind whether the “evil” reading of her posts is the right one, but I think it’s a possible one, anyway.

Which also comes across as somewhat apologetic. As if she was apologizing in advance in case we happened to lynch the person she voted for and they turned out to be innocent. Concerns me a little. But then again there's Eonwe too, who I'm getting quite wary of. He leaps rather easily from disagreeing with Nerwen to suspecting her and then as she responds to that he does an almost-Legate-180 and says Nerwen might not be suspicious after all. What?

What confuses me even more is that I doubt their exchange was wolf-on-wolf - it would have been extremely bold to draw so much attention to themselves, especially as neither had really been in the spotlight yesterDay. Seems like a pointless risk to take. It is also possible that it was innocent-on-innocent and I'm wasting my time here, but they both look fishy and I have no better leads at the moment.

There would also be Boro who I'm getting more concerned about, but I don't have time for a proper look at him now so I'll probably have to leave him be for toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and two Lommies!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time.

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

[Loslote]

As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

This one, to be precise.

[A Little Green]

I'm back! I agree that Echo was probably a suspected Seer. I haven't really thought this through and Nerwen and Eonwe's argument makes my brain hurt, but from what I gather there are two scenarios if the wolves thought Echo was the Seer:

Scenario 1: they thought he dreamed Kath based on his pretty drastic flip-flop on her - from "Lynch the witch!" to "She's not important anymore" overnight might have caught their attention. If this was the case, Kath looks good.

Scenario 2: they thought he dreamed Holby. Also makes sense, given his (also rather drastic) sudden switch of suspicion to her yesterDay. If this was the case, it doesn't really tell us much about the roles of living players as Holby is already a dead wolf.

What did I miss?

Anyway, moving on to other things - a quick look at the vote tally from yesterDay:

Boro -> Lottie
No surprises here; he made a solid enough case and voted on it immediately. Not suspicious in itself, but would also be a pretty safe thing for a wolf to do. I hope we'll see more of Boro toDay; I might go through his posts as well if I have the time or the energy.

Nerwen -> Cop
Said that multiple comments of Cop's could be read as either innocent or evil and voted with

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I really just can’t make up my mind whether the “evil” reading of her posts is the right one, but I think it’s a possible one, anyway.

Kath -> Cop (2)
I'm pretty okay with Kath's vote; she had decent points behind it, including Cop's apologetic "Oops should have known better" after Legsy's death. This would also have been a pretty safe vote for a wolf to make, though, but since I tend to find Kath pretty innocent anyway I'm not too alarmed.

Lommy -> Nerwen
Because there are "little things that bother her" and because she began to waver on Cop and didn't want to vote for her. This makes me feel rather good about Lommy, actually. I'd guess a Lommywolf would try to think of a more elegant argument to base her vote on.

Greenie -> Cop (3)

Lottie -> Holby

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop.

This sounds sensible. Also, it would be a daring move from a wolf since there was some anti-Holby sentiment around and quite a few undecided people left to vote.

McCaber -> Holby (2)
Not dwelling on this since I find it highly improbable that he is a baddie.

Cop -> Holby (3)
Self-preservation. Doesn't really tell much about her role as at that point it looked like it was going to be either her or Holby, so if she is a wolf it would have been a wolf lynch anyway. Of course as a wolf she could have voted Nerwen and hoped to create a tie and thus a no-kill, but that would have been quite risky as it would have looked fishy.

Also, while on the subject of Cop - the gifted reveal? I'm not sure. This "I'm either the Ranger or the Hunter" is pretty much the cleverest way to fake a reveal if you're a heavily suspected wolf. I mean, no one can come out with a contesting claim since the ranger will think "Oh, that means she's the hunter" and the hunter "Oh, she's the ranger". But it would also be sensible from a real gifted so I don't know! Cop thanks for making my head hurt.

Holby -> Nerwen (2)
This has already been speculated on so sorry if I'm repeating stuff, but this might be the most interesting vote of the bunch - why didn't she vote Cop? Was it that she wasn't up to date with the vote tally, or that she had given up, or that she wanted to protect a fellow Cop, or was afraid Cop was the Hunter? Or was she hoping that neither she nor Cop would get any more votes, leaving the vote in a tie and thus a no-kill? The thing is, with Holby it's hard to tell!

Echo -> Holby (4)
No surprises here either, and since both these guys are already dead there's no need to dwell on analyzing this.

Shasta -> Shasta
Because he fell asleep and had to avoid modfire somehow. Doesn't tell anything about him except that he should probably start drinking coffee or something, sleepyhead. Anyway, I hope he gets his act together regarding the voting!


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, two Nerwens and a Sally!