Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I wouldn't put Kath in the no-doubt innocent category, but she's the one I'm going to trust the most for the time being (stop getting so confused! ). If they had gone after Echo as the seer, then the sorcerers would have to think everything Echo said was right. (That being Holby = sorcerer and suddenly backing off Kath after the Day 1 vote)

But they could hardly have thought “Seer”Echo dreamed them both on the same Night, Boro.

[Nerwen]

Echoalysis
(Longer posts will be extracts only.)

Day One

#26. [Replying to Zil (#3) and Coppermirror (#5) who both mentioned not having played with Echo or Holbytlass before]

Originally Posted by Echo

Hmmm mentioned twice only out of not being known, which is where the worst kind of fear birthed from,...(lack of knowledge). but everyone has some knowledge of the behaviors of others....except me.

such a public display just to crawl back to your condemed squanders, what do you have to think and be paranoid about?...

#49. [The infamous vote-post]

Originally Posted by Echo

This is quite a good point, kath is suspicious with all the nonsense chatter and trying to point out that she's "innocent
". She doesn't sit right with me.
++ KATH

#62. [Bolding vote]

Originally Posted by Echo

to be clear....lynch the witch ++KATH......or wolf in this matter of business.

#67

Originally Posted by Echo

I miss quoted with my clumbsy fumbling,..im a blind deaf (and stupid) black smith with my hands full,....or perhaps im just saying this???

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

Would our moddess be so good as to clarify the matter?

–Meanwhile, as you see the only other person Echo mentions at all on Day One is Holbytlass (wolf), and this is just banter– though it does seem to carry a tone of suspicion.

[satansaloser2005]

The game began with a Day phase, though those with nightly powers were able to use them (with the obvious exception of the sorcerers' kill) before the thread opened.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The game began with a Day phase, though those with nightly powers were able to use them (with the obvious exception of the sorcerers' kill) before the thread opened.

Sally, there's one thing I'd like to clarify about that. Does that mean that the wolves were able to PM each other prior to the first Day phase?

[Nerwen]

Note: I had to leave halfway though composing this, hence the delay. No idea who has posted in the meantime; I am afraid to refresh for fear of Serverman, Lord of the Code.

Echo, Day Two
#105 [First post of the Day]

Originally Posted by Echo

Are we aloud to post now?
if we are i would like to say, may Inzil rest in shredded pieces.
hmmm i was mildly suspicious about him, but no matter now.




the reason i whatch my back at night
holby~ its not just me noticing her weird QUIET behavior but youd know better than me, im just a new nobody
cop~ hes either really good or really bad,...but im still havent desided which. (hopfully good)


mildly suspicious of
green~ill have to pick a better reason than the one ive got,...you dont sit right with me though.
AND everyone else.
[u]other[u]
Boro~ what can i say other than hes nice and welcomed me, i have no reason to suspect him........yet.



well ponder my list. think of me evil or think of me not,..i dont care.
but youll think of me the way you think when you think it. but if i die today or tonight you will get no further.

You see what I was talking about– this post just by itself could well have been enough to get Echo killed!

#108.

Originally Posted by Echo

as am i cop,
hobbits dont live in dirty,nasty, wet holes filled with the ends of worms,...but do holbyts?...........

More suspicion of Holby.

#109

Originally Posted by Echo

i patiently wait for the bantering and finger pionting..... though its quite late but no worry i eagerly wait!!! (well not the finger pionting if its at me)

#114. [Replying to me at #112, when I asked Echo to explain the Day One vote.]

Originally Posted by Echo

hmm all you need know is i dont think kath is quite important anymore,...does this have profound meaning?!,...i guess if you want it to,..but i find someone else making my skin crawl,....

And more. This seems to me more easy to interpret as “Forget Kath, I’ve definitely got a wolf this time,” than as “I dreamed Kath and she was innocent”.

#128.
Re-posts Holby’s Day One suspicion list, pointing out that the names are grouped by number of vowels/syllables.

Originally Posted by Echo

it was supost to be a joke,.... but shes posting vague things just so she cant seem suspicious or slip up.

Yet more.

#129.

Originally Posted by Echo

perhaps you might think my last post gives her justice that shes innocent? but i was observant enough to figure out her list. though dose not explain why she wouldnt just tell us about the list or perhaps i am wrong?....

And so on...

#161.

Originally Posted by Echo

all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.

i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling.....

And so forth... Note, by the way, how Echo more-or-less admits needing to come up with a case to justify an existing suspicion.

#175.

Originally Posted by Echo

because i didnt care about legate and i still dont he didnt make me suspect him much.......as for greenie,.....well ill save my fingerpionting for later,..
of course you probebly want an explenation for that last sentence,...ill get back to you on that.

Very cryptic– I suppose Echo had noticed something about Greenie, but never got around to saying what.

#179.

Originally Posted by Echo

hmmm interesting,..but sorry doll.
and the part about me and holby,...that was cute,..i laughed

I think this refers to #170, where Lommy lists Echo and Holby as “unlikely packmates”.

#205.[3rd vote on Holby]

Originally Posted by Echo

++HOLBY,...!!!!!!!!!!!

#210

Originally Posted by Echo

if i dont make it tonight,..green leaves fall on my grave

“I’m the Seer, I’ve done my job, farewell... Unless you feel like protecting me, Ranger.” That’s how it would read to the wolves, I imagine. Unless you take “green leaves” to be a supposed “Seer-hint" regarding Greenie (cf #175)– but it’s so weak compared to all the Holby-stuff that it would have to be no more than an intention to dream her next.

Well, that had to be done. Fairly useless, though. As you see, I’ve ended pretty much exactly where I started: I believe they thought Echo was a Seer who had dreamed Holby. There is little else to be got from Echo’s posts, except that, as already mentioned, his/her survival after the first Day is a point in Kath’s favour.

One thing I have noticed is that nearly all Echo’s posts have a white tree icon, while the first has a green leaf. Possibly the wolves thought this meant something. Possibly they were meant to think this– I am leaning now towards the idea that Echo may have been deliberately acting as bait. A very unusual ploy for a complete newbie to try– but I just honestly can’t work out why else an ordo would say half the things Echo did.

EDIT:X’d with Coppermirror & moddess.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, that had to be done.

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day?

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...

Originally Posted by Steve

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.

Originally Posted by Steve

I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from.

You mean Holby..., right?

[Nerwen]

Holbalysis

Holbytlass, Day One.

#18.

Originally Posted by Holby

i have been gone long in my travels and only now return.
some are known but most aren't.

i did want to come to the village square and say hello before returning to my humble abode and unpack and think and become paranoid and....

#33

how 'bout voting for these confusing debaters of the "rule of three"-too bad we cant "lynch of three"

highly suspect
Shasta
Nerwen
Green
Boro
Steve

very suspect
Kath
Dun
Cop

much suspect
Lottie
Echo
Legate
Lommy

innocent
McCobbler


it should be plainly obvious my reasonings!!

Echo believed this list was arranged according to number of syllables in the players’ names. Holby’s next posts tends to support this.

Originally Posted by Holby

don't like abstaining voters, esp day 1 where any reason is mostly justified because it is day 1.

the wagon jumping done here by legate and little green to lommie's suspicions of copper is unsettling. [arranging suspect list to first letter of names]

So... one of those Holby “suspects” here is an innocent (Legate). It’s a common enough wolf-ploy to pair one’s fellow’s name with that of an innocent, and that could have been what she did here. Or not. It would be quite a stretch to call it an actual point against Greenie.

Originally Posted by Holby

a three way tie!?!

++LEGATE

since out of the three hes suspicious to me

This was the third vote for Legate, bringing him to a tie with Kath. Other candidates were Cop (2 votes) and me (1 vote). Note that Holby’s stated intention here is to break the tie (as was Lottie’s in voting for Kath). If we take that at face-value, then their votes crossed and Holby did not realise Kath had just got a third vote. However, Holby’s vote is timestamped two minutes after Lottie’s.

Where am I going with this? Not sure... just looking for signs of our known wolf showing a preference for one candidate over another. Hmmn. Inconclusive, I’d say.

Holbytlass, Day Two
#130. Post consists entirely of the “Stick out tongue” emoticon, in response to a comment of Lottie’s (#101) the Day before. Not very informative, but it does rather sum up Holby’s attitude!

#133.

Originally Posted by Holby

ooh, good thinking-even if i'm on the list

but then they will start looking at me..buts its helpful no matter what..but i hate people looking at me..we must find sorcers and kill them..cant we just leave,again..?

is this a subtle protection from those in league?

yes, maybe if one checks out #21 and #30, could be deflection..ooh using fancy words-and i just said that..but i was agreeing

must huddle and think and look at others

Um... Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance?
Anyway, #21 and #30 are two Day one posts of mine. I’m not sure what she’s getting at, though– I think the idea is supposed to be that Lottie and I (and Coppermirror?) are packmates, raising points against each other only to dismiss them, or something like that.

Then Holby vanished for a long while, and voting happened.

When she returned, the tally run thus:

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Cop
Kath -> Cop (2)
Lommy -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Cop (3)
Lottie -> Holby
McCaber -> Holby (2)
Cop -> Holby (3)

Holby then cast her own, final vote:

Originally Posted by Holby

++ Nerwn

Apart from the fact that this “Nerwn”, whoever she may be, is not listed among the players, the vote isn’t even bolded. And yet Cop already had three votes. Had Holby resigned herself to death? But why? With only two players left to vote, she might well have survived if she voted Cop.

Obviously, this looks pretty bad for Coppermirror. This may, however, have been the idea (i.e. Holby thought she hadn’t long regardless, and thought it worth it to implicate an innocent). Or she may have panicked/lost count of the votes. Or just not cared. Very hard to know what Holby’s aims were at any point, really.

[Nerwen]

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):

Originally Posted by Steve

I do think it should be addressed though.

If the sorcerers thought Echo was a seer, then Cop and Greenie are the most obvious answers for possible wolves (which funnily enough have topped my suspicion list since D1, but I won't let that cloud this post). Of course, it would also be risky to kill with such links - though Echo was enigmatic, Cop was next to Holby in the suspicious list, and Greenie a step below (and also pointed at in the annotated Holby's list) - though maybe not as risky as being found out. And of course if they're not, the sorcerers could just want to frame them.


On the other hand, it could be a 'let-them-think-we-think-Echo's-a-seer' kill, in which case it points to Kath. If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely, so by killing Echo, Kath makes herself look amazingly innocent (i.e. makes us think the wolves thought her innocent).

Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Originally Posted by Eonwe

we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely.

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.

Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Steve

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.

Originally Posted by Steve

The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):
Quote:

I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."