Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Kath]

Just posting a couple of things that caught my eye when I read up on happenings on the thread from after I left yesterDay, then I will go and read what has been going on toDay.

Boro asked me yesterDay:
I don't get the connection you're trying to make about Inzil reminding everyone to go invisible.

It was the second part of the sentence – the part about traitors having the same means available to them. Why would he want to remind wolves to go invisible? Yes it is obviously sporting for all players to know not to be visible, but that had already been explicitly stated by Inzil in an earlier post. So why mention it AGAIN? At the time I thought maybe there was a fellow wolf in his pack who still hadn’t figured this out. Clearly I was wrong!

If I were a paranoid person, I might wonder about this in light of Inzil’s death. For here is a very handy suspicion that wolf-Boro or indeed any wolf could go back to and pick up on.

Then later Cop said:
Boro does have a point about Kath's #54, now that he points it out, but I didn't notice anything particularly suspicious in her other posts.

What point exactly? The Inzil one? If so explained above, if not please elaborate.

[Kath]

OH! Oh I have just noticed that I am completely wrong! It was not Inzil that had that sentence about the traitors at all, it was Cop! Sorry Boro - no wonder you were confused.

[Kath]

But, in which case, my paranoia about somebody (and I am now thinking it likely to be Cop) picking up on Boro's all but throw-away remark has grown.

[Kath]

The Legate bandwagon yesterDay I thought was very silly - though I was also very surprised to find I was in the running!

The voters:
Lommy ~ well she had been arguing against his reasoning all Day so she at least had a consistent and personally reasoned reason for voting for him. That is not to say that it makes her automatically innocent. There is nothing to say that she didn't go after him for this very reason. Being the first to vote also means no automatic innocence - it's the safest place to be in the bandwagon.

Cop ~ now Cop already had 2 votes at this point so actually her vote for Legate makes sense, but in two ways. She could know she is an innocent, therefore know nothing of Legate and reasonably assume her death would be no better if not worse for the village than Legate's. Or she could know that she is a wolf, therefore know that Legate is not and therefore need to save her own skin. At this point though, she could also have voted for me and put me ahead as Boro had just given me a second vote. The choice between Legate and me then is an interesting one.

Quick recap on Cop's posts then:
#5: I am sure we have various spells and potions available to turn us invisible. Of course, we must bear in mind that the traitors in our midst have these means available to them as well...
THIS is the sentence that had me thinking, I had just wrongly attributed it to Inzil. So it is Cop perhaps who needed to remind a fellow wolf to turn invisible. I do think it more than simple banter, only because Inzil had entirely explicitly stated this already.

#7: Began the questioning of how many wolves there were. But did say ‘No, this is not the time.’

#12 Knew nothing of the ‘rule of three’ (and let us please hope we can be at the end of that ridiculous discussion now!) but seemed to take it seriously, stating she would not want to be suspicious of Inzil as usual but would instead suspect Lottie.

#17 Specifically states that she is innocent in response to a jokey comment from Lommy. Overstates the likelihood of a wolf/wolves already having posted. Lommy does later have this out with her. Questions Legate about seeing wolf to wolf communication in her conversation with Inzil – so this could be the start of her Legate suspicion.

#45 Suspicions, so here is what she said about me and Legate.
Kath: Talks about admin and rules issues. There's nothing particularly suspicious about that. She also asks for an explanation of a sentence of mine - and likewise, that doesn't look suspicious of her. Later on, she offers some clarification to Greenie about an interpretation of Legate re the rule of 3 business.

There is really nothing there that looks suspicious, but Kath is not putting herself out there much with opinions about other posters. Of course, it's hard to have a really strong opinion this early on. She could be a careful, thoughtful innocent, but equally could be a careful, cautious wolf.

Legate: At #15 he appears to claim that my early banter comments, especially towards Inzil, could while purporting to be pure banter have a hidden purpose of "talking about Wolves" or "talking about packmates". At #27 he claims that that wasn't what he meant and that it was all a general comment about the "avoiding" feel of the banter. I'm not sure I buy that. I also think he's over-reacting to my concern about his intentions, as the situation as I believed it to be (Legate suggesting there could be hidden evil talking-to-and-about-sorcerers in the early banter, but not saying important things such as what or where) was a reasonable cause for suspicion and seeking clarification.

Although I don't trust the explanation at #27, the possibility definitely remains that Legate's wording at #15 just didn't convey exactly what he wanted it to and he's perfectly innocent. Will definitely have to keep an eye on Legate.

I don't particularly find the rule of three explanation that Legate gave to be suspicious. He posts first impressions of several people, which is a good sign. He missed some details about what people were talking about before, which suggests he wasn't reading all of the posts with extreme care. The continuing discussion with Lommy about the rule of three thing looks genuine, but is probably not especially relevant to whether he's a sorcerer.
So at this point she is clearly more suspicious of Legate than of me, and has a reason separate to Lommy’s. I do agree that Legate’s comment and later explanation were a bit vague. I would suspect that he maybe did get a funny feel from the post and then poked Cop to see what would happen.

#64 Questions Echo – somebody she had stated she was concerned about.

#75 This is the post that raised suspicions in a few people as she states she thinks her own tone was forced, and also defends herself for stating she is an innocent. Yes, she is putting it across as correcting a mistaken stat, but what she has actually done is explicitly state that she is an innocent. If you’re going to do that then fair enough, but don’t then back away from it.

#81 Through her acceptance that things she did may appear suspicious, she clears Greenie of suspicion. If she was beginning to worry about ending up in the noose this would be a nice time to deflect suspicion away from a Greenie-wolf buddy.

#86 Oh, but then turns round and suggests that Greenie might actually be a wolf after all for voting for her.

#90 States that she would be likely to vote for Legate, saying his leaving right after voting is odd. Actually I would say this is all but usual behaviour! Those who vote then hang around gleefully waiting to see what happens are the ones I would worry about.

#94 Then this: Boro does have a point about Kath's #54, now that he points it out, but I didn't notice anything particularly suspicious in her other posts. Which I have already asked for clarification on, followed by a vote for Legate.

Then her first post today:
#106 A pity about Legate. I can see how that happened now and I really should have known better.
I would very much like an explanation of this sentence.

I must say that this read through does not make me feel very happy about Cop. I rather feel that she pushed at Legate quite hard, and did put him back in the running for the lynch when she voted, although her reasons were voting were at least reasoned and well supported.

Holby ~ after I had been voted into the lead for the lynch, Holby then appeared and put Legate back into the running saying: since out of the three hes suspicious to me. Had Legate in her ‘much suspect’ list, but this list was nearer the innocent end of the list than her ‘very suspect’ list which included me and Inzil. So at this point I would suggest Legate was the least suspicious to her. Later says she thinks Legate and Greenie suspicious for bandwagoning on suspicions of Cop. So I suppose that you could say Legate was her highest suspect of the three at the point that she voted. That said, given she thought the suspicion of Cop was odd she could have been trying to save a fellow Cop-wolf and at this point used suspicion of Legate to direct votes away from Cop and to Legate.

Eonwe ~ made the final decision! Brave innocent or uncaring wolf. An innocent would die either way.

This has got overly long. Posting.

[Kath]

And then to those who voted for me:

Echo ~ jumped onto the end of mine and Lommy’s argument over Legate.
Stated: This is quite a good point, kath is suspicious with all the nonsense chatter and trying to point out that she's "innocent
". She doesn't sit right with me.
++ KATH
I would like to ask Echo where I said that I was innocent. If nowhere, then he has made up a reason for voting for me, which I do not like. If somewhere, then I would like an explanation of why doing so makes me suspicious.

This is his explanation when asked to clarify by Inzil:
I miss quoted with my clumbsy fumbling,..im a blind deaf (and stupid) black smith with my hands full,....or perhaps im just saying this???
Echo, if you are worried that you are being ignored, or not taken seriously, may I suggest that this is why. You have been asked a clear, concise question. Please respond accordingly to gain the respect and co-operation of your fellow players.

At no point on Day 1 did Echo mention suspicions of any player, bar perhaps concern about Holby in an early post. Obviously there is reason for concern here.

Boro ~ supported the ‘rule of three’ (headdesk) argument, so in a way I suppose supported Legate at this point. Votes for me so that I drew in votes with Coppermirror. Now, the reasoning behind the vote itself I don’t particularly contest given that I have now realised I got my quotes confused! However, I do think it very odd that Boro would put me in a position to be in line for the noose without considering Coppermirror, who already had two votes, at all!

Lottie ~ so now that we know Legate is innocent, that comment that was pretty explicit about Legate and Greenie’s argument being the work of two innocents (definitely – her words) becomes interesting. Putting in a subtle defence of Greenie early on perhaps? After I throw some suspicion her way she says this:
A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers.
And how precisely do I know they can’t be?

Very sure of Cop’s innocence and says Legate is innocent as well. This is a pretty clear path then to when ‘forced’ to choose between them and me ending up with voting me!

So of these three I would like far more actual information and sense from Echo, but it is Lottie’s reasoning that strikes me as interesting.

[Kath]

sally as you are here could you please make clear the rules surrounding potential double lynches?

[Kath]

Oh and I missed commenting on Boro at the end of that last post there, but then it is probably clear within it that I think his vote for me was odd. So actually I suspect everyone who voted for me!

Not Echo so much though, would just like to hear some actual reasoning from him.

From the Legate voters Cop is concerning to me, and I would like more information from Holby.

So let's go to toDay at last!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kath

sally as you are here could you please make clear the rules surrounding potential double lynches?

Absolutely! Sorry, I was still catching up on the thread (which is made more difficult by the deprecating daleks).

In the case of a tie, your unfocused energies will result in no one being lynched.

I'll also add this to the rules post in a moment so it's easily accessible.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lottie ~ so now that we know Legate is innocent, that comment that was pretty explicit about Legate and Greenie’s argument being the work of two innocents (definitely – her words) becomes interesting. Putting in a subtle defence of Greenie early on perhaps? After I throw some suspicion her way she says this:
A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers.
And how precisely do I know they can’t be?

If you are a sorcerer, then you know who the other sorcerers are - and, by extension, you know the other sorcerers aren't. If you want to suspect anyone other than your fellow sorcerers, you have to fake suspicion.

On another note, I don't know what to think of Holby anymore. Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused.

YesterDay, Kath was my strongest suspicion, and I suppose she still is, but only by default. I'm mostly on the fence with her, leaning just a bit towards eeeeevil, but I'll probably spend more time looking over her posts later on to maybe see if I can work out where that feeling is coming from and whether or not it's justified.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Kath

What point exactly? The Inzil one? If so explained above, if not please elaborate.

Originally Posted by Kath

OH! Oh I have just noticed that I am completely wrong! It was not Inzil that had that sentence about the traitors at all, it was Cop! Sorry Boro - no wonder you were confused.

Yes, it was the point about Inzil which looked odd there. So your explanation for it is a combination of thinking that it was overdone for Inzil to mention invisibility in two posts as he did, and a mistaken belief that he said a line he didn't. Although in the actual post where you detailed your suspicion, the attributions were clear and quoted in your own post right in front of your speculation, so I think it would be difficult to have been mistaken about the latter.

I find it strange that Inzil reminding people about their invisibility would be taken first and foremost as a likely hint from a Sorcerer-Inzil to members of his pack. The same goes if it's true that Kath was mistaken about attributions and what bothered her was my banter on the topic. If saying anything about invisibility is really that suspicious, I have to wonder why Kath doesn't find my specific reminder toDay to Nerwen about her invisibility to look really bad. (Could Nerwen and Kath be part of a pack?)

Originally Posted by Kath

But, in which case, my paranoia about somebody (and I am now thinking it likely to be Cop) picking up on Boro's all but throw-away remark has grown.

That's interesting, because I don't think a remark that is part of someone's rationale for his vote and one of the two points he thought was most suspicious is what I'd call "all but throw-away". You do seem to be distancing yourself from your remark at #54. Blimey if I can tell whether it's sorcerous distance.

Let's see, before I get back to my analysis I think there were a few more things that people were asking me.

Originally Posted by Kath

Then her first post today:
#106 A pity about Legate. I can see how that happened now and I really should have known better.
I would very much like an explanation of this sentence.

Legate looked okay to me aside from the one point that looked really bad, which meant that there was a risk of him being a confused innocent who had just failed to explain himself. In retrospect it would have been better to give him the benefit of the doubt for the Day. All the same, I don't regret placing that vote, because Legate was still the person I suspected the most at the end of that Day.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm pretty sure you're right about what she meant. Interestingly though, what you do not mention is that Lommy, too, switched quickly to stronger suspicion after your #75.

And I find it interesting that you think that that point about Lommy was something I should have mentioned when explaining what I think Holby meant when she was saying it looked as if you and Legate were bandwagon jumping.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Given that Cop herself was in the running for the lynch, it's hard to suspect her for trying to push Legate ahead of her. However, I am a bit curious as to why Cop didn't simply take the "self-preservation" out.

I considered voting for self-preservation. However, before I voted, the only person I was tied with was Kath. Although I thought that Boro had a point, it wasn't enough for me to vote for her. Also, Boro had posted very little, which left me unable to make any sort of conclusion about his guilt or innocence. My suspicion of Legate was much stronger.