Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Holbytlass]

i have been gone long in my travels and only now return.
some are known but most aren't.

i did want to come to the village square and say hello before returning to my humble abode and unpack and think and become paranoid and....

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Why would Lottie be someone who frequently gets lynched on day 1? I can't quite remember if this topic got brought up in a previous game or not.

Lottie did through a period where she got lynched early a lot. It happens. The “why” is not so easy to determine...

But I don’t really like the way Greenie just points out Lottie's track record as a default lynch– without saying what she thinks of her this time. Or the way Cop picks up on it, for that matter.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Heeeey, you are impugning my almost spotless record of innocence! Prior to this game my ratio of wolfhood was 1/4. (Now 1/5)

Well, of course– you’re a sorcerer this time, right, Cop?
EDIT: X’d with Kath.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Not a rule of thumb, but just based on probability, I would say (especially in smaller games). I think I recall it happening very often. Usually, the WWs also feel some "moral obligation" to post (I mean, there are "unsporty" wolves as well, but I think mostly WWs are like that they don't want to purposefully abstain for a day unless they are forced to, since it'd be unfair), if they are around, in case they won't be around later. So if a WW is around in early stages of the game, I think it's more likely they post than not. Also, the earlier the post, the more banter you can write (but I guess it depends on the Wolf if he/she is a under-the-radar-substanceless-posts-posting one or if he/she prefers to write things with actual content, such WWs probably prefer to write more once the actual discussion starts).

What? Are you actually treating the rule of three as a serious theory? That's the fishiest thing I've seen today. The rule of three is utter made-up rubbish based on probabilities. I mean, yes, if we are 14 and there are 3 wolves, it's quite likely there is a wolf among the three first posters, but the probability is no bigger than there being a wolf among any given three players - say the three first in alphabetical order (in his case A Little Green, Boro and Coppermirror). There's no point in basing any suspicions on the rule of three.

Originally Posted by Kath

Is there any knowledge on whether double lynches might happen? I looked through the admin thread but couldn't see anything. May be me being stupid though.

Since there's nothing, we can quite safely assume there are none, that has been the trend recently. But [B]alittleimpishdevilsthemoddess2005[B], what happens in the case of a tie?

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Heeeey, you are impugning my almost spotless record of innocence! Prior to this game my ratio of wolfhood was 1/4. (Now 1/5)

Fair enough, your wolfiness just left a strong impression on me then. The clarification about your wolfhood ratio was quite unnecessary though.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

By now, rule of three or no rule of three, we've had eight people posting by now, and that means there's bound to be at least one wolf who's posted, and maybe more.

Okay kids, let Lommy teach you some maths. It is probable that one or two wolves have posted by now, but they are in no means bound to have posted yet since there are six people who haven't posted yet and we have three wolves. Ergo, it's totally possible our wolves are among those who haven't still posted.

Originally Posted by Cop

Earlier people were debating the merits of going for Saruman versus also going for, um, Serverman, Lord of the Code.

edit: wow, a crowd! xed with everyone after Kath