WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Coppermirror]

On the assumption that Gil really is a wizard:

- There's a chance that, given Gil's apparent usual playing style, they will have thought right from the start that there was a good risk of him being lynched for that. Accordingly, they probably took some extra care when talking about him, and would have been ready in advance to bus him. I think that's something we should bear in mind when looking back on previous Days.

- So, they certainly wouldn't defend him toDay. And Gil might not even bother to show up. All these things will limit the information available to us.

- We can best use the day in looking for the other wizards. To stay quiet and to allow the wizards to stay quiet is to lose the opportunity to gather more info.

[Nerwen]

Okay. It looks like Rikae must be innocent, and Rikae, I'm sorry I suspected you. However, I did believe you needed looking at, and I countered your arguments because I thought they were really strange and didn't make sense. And the fact is, I have seen you behave that way as a wolf. Okay?

[Nerwen]

Regrading Gil-

I think it must be him, yes.

As always, the alternative are random/no trace and misdirection, i.e. "clearing" a Rikwolf or framing an innocent Gil- but that seems unlikely to me.

If Gil is innocent, and it was Brinn's defence of Rikae alone that tipped them off, you'd think they should have gone for Loslote instead, as she actually went so far as to vote me for suspecting Rikae.. You know, it could have looked like the overreaction of a Seer thinking "anyone who votes my dreamed innocent must be evil! Die!" (If she's innocent, of course.)

EDIT: x'd with Coppermirror; x'd with Cop, Zil, Morsul.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Regrading Gil-

I think it must be him, yes.

As always, the alternative are random/no trace and misdirection, i.e. "clearing" a Rikwolf or framing an innocent Gil- but that seems unlikely to me.

That doesn't even make sense. If they thought Brinn was an ordo, her death wouldn't "clear" me anyway. That is, unless they can expect the village to assume that wolves only ever kill people who suspect them.

No offense, but I don't know what to make of you, Nerwen. You really are saying a lot that doesn't make sense, and I wouldn't expect that from you as an innocent or a wizard.

At any rate, yes, it could have been they just got lucky and killed the seer thinking it was a no trace kill, in which case Gil would be innocent. I wouldn't be so sure about him if Brinn's last post hadn't looked like a hint. Even so I'm not as certain about it as you and Copper seem to be. I don't think she'd risk misleading the village by making a whole separate post about how she wanted to lynch Gil - I wouldn't - but I can't be sure.

I would like to hear from him, anyhow.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That doesn't even make sense. If they thought Brinn was an ordo, her death wouldn't "clear" me anyway. That is, unless they can expect the village to assume that wolves only ever kill people who suspect them.

Hence my saying it was unlikely. Really don't think there's any call for you to say I'm not making sense.

[Inziladun]

So people are leaning toward Gil being the main suspect?
I've thought he looked dodgy anyway, hence my vote yesterNight. I have to wonder why they didn't choose me instead of Brinn though, unless they took a chance that I was too careless in my suspicions to be a Seer.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

On the assumption that Gil really is a wizard:

- There's a chance that, given Gil's apparent usual playing style, they will have thought right from the start that there was a good risk of him being lynched for that. Accordingly, they probably took some extra care when talking about him, and would have been ready in advance to bus him. I think that's something we should bear in mind when looking back on previous Days.

- So, they certainly wouldn't defend him toDay. And Gil might not even bother to show up. All these things will limit the information available to us.

You seem rather sure of how things with Gil have and will play out.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

You seem rather sure of how things with Gil have and will play out.

That's my guess for how things might be if Gil is a wizard (which is unconfirmed, but I do think it's quite likely that Brin dreamed of him). If you've got other ideas or interpretations, please do go over them.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

That's my guess for how things might be if Gil is a wizard (which is unconfirmed, but I do think it's quite likely that Brin dreamed of him). If you've got other ideas or interpretations, please do go over them.

It just seemed odd that you thought it likely he wouldn't show up to defend himself.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It just seemed odd that you thought it likely he wouldn't show up to defend himself.

Oh, okay. I was thinking that if he's a wizard and he thought things were totally hopeless for him, he might not even show up, in order to limit the amount of information he might give us in the course of mounting a defence.

[Nerwen]

More on Brinn's possible dreams

Brinn also paired Nogrod with Gil in her suspicions yesterDay (#371, #387). It would be lovely to think she had dreamed both as wolves, but I don't believe this can be the case.

The Day before she was "unsure" about both of them: (#187, #203) and considered (#199) Nog as a possible cobbler.

It seems clear, then, that Brinn hadn't dreamed either of them prior to Night Three, and, self-evidently, couldn't have dreamed both on the same Night.

Interestingly, though, she talks about Nogrod as "one to watch" (#187) and says she will "keep an eye on him" (#203). At this point, it looks a lot more like she's planning to dream Nog then Gil. And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371)– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill. Now, as I was at pains to point out yesterDay– doing so is simply normal practise. Thus, this could be a Seer "reaching" in order to make a case on someone she knows is a wolf. I'm sure we've all seen that kind of thing. On the other hand, it could just as easily, or more easily, simply be a Seer discounting evidence against someone she knows is innocent (i.e. Rikae.)

And after all, it was Gil she "would have preferred voting".

EDIT:formatting. EDIT2:fixed error.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371)– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill.

Wow, that's a good point actually. I think you may be right. Perhaps Nogrod was the dream after all?

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading...

[Coppermirror]

I have to vote within the next hour, and I intend to vote for Gil. For his fishy logic on Day 2, the possibility that Volo was killed for suspecting him, his vote yesterDay, and that I believe Brin probably dreamed of him. That's so much suspicion that I really have to find out if he's a wizard at this point. I realise that there's also a chance she might have dreamed of Nog instead and found him guilty, and indeed, Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.

I won't vote until I have to, though, just in case someone comes up with an argument that persuades me before then.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.

I will hold it to you to vote Nog tomorrow if you decide to vote for me toDay. We got super lucky on the first day, and now it is just going downhill for us and we are losing a lot of innocents. I understand that this game is about senseless lynchings, but I just want to feel good that a Wolf gets killed after me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So... you're saying you think she did dream you, Gil? You know what that implies, right?

Of course I do. It implies that she would have known my true role in this and would have looked at other trolls aside from me toDay, if she survived.

The way it looks, Nerwen and Inz are all gung-ho to lynch me toDay along with others non-committed but leaning towards it. I will state what I have stated before: I am innocent, a lynch of me would prove that, and you can assume this is just being a tricksy wolf trying to avoid lynchings, but I have accepted the possible inevitable and just ask that look at the trolls that were so persistent on an easy kill for me.

I do not like Nerwen's postings, not since her day 1 defense against me. When she got the spotlight, she put in a lot of effort to shake it off, and when she wanted to vote for someone she did not tarry off the path. An innocent would want to get as many wolves out as possible, a Wolf would focus on one at a time. Look back at her posts and decide yourself, this is what I feel.

With that said,

++Nerwen

It is up to you my friends, we really need to get a wolf kill in here.

Xed: with Cop

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Gil

Of course I do. It implies that she would have known my true role in this and would have looked at other trolls aside from me toDay, if she survived.

You said " it is hard to say if Brinn did a Seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear". No it isn't.

The way it looks, Nerwen and Inz are all gung-ho to lynch me toDay along with others non-committed but leaning towards it. I will state what I have stated before: I am innocent, a lynch of me would prove that, and you can assume this is just being a tricksy wolf trying to avoid lynchings, but I have accepted the possible inevitable and just ask that look at the trolls that were so persistent on an easy kill for me.

Actually I haven't been particularly "gung-ho" to lynch you- not more than anyone else and less than some. The person who has been strongest and most consistant in pushing for your lynchng toDay is Cop, whom you don't even mention. Why pick on me? It seems so random...

Originally Posted by Gil

I do not like Nerwen's postings, not since her day 1 defense against me. When she got the spotlight, she put in a lot of effort to shake it off, and when she wanted to vote for someone she did not tarry off the path.

My defence? You mean when you made a really dodgy-looking vote for me and I, along with various other players, said, "Gosh, what a dodgy-looking vote"? And then you just started screeching about how everyone was out to get you and how "Nerwen's evil defensiveness shows she has something to hide"?

And then you go on to vote me. Even though in your previous post it was "Inz and Nog" we needed to focus on.

Possibilities.

1. You are a framed innocent who has developed some sort of paranoid fixation on me that's making you see me as your chief persecutor.

2. You are a flailing wolf who has settled on me as the best current prospect for an innocent lynch.

3. You are a sneaky wolf who is hoping to take me down with him via over-the-top accusations that will be seen as "wolf-on-wolf".

EDIT: x'd with Sally.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

2. You are a flailing wolf who has settled on me as the best current prospect for an innocent lynch.

I find this Hilaurious that you refer to yourself as an innocent lynch. Nobody here besides myself has pointed you out for wolfishness or even voted for you (Aside from the deceased Brinn and Volo). You only have one vote for you, why do you constantly think that that means it is the end of you?

Look at my past in this game, I have found no one that has supported me, and every one that finds me suspicious. If I was a wolf, I would not throw names in that haven't been thrown in before, because the key to a Wolf in lynch-play is too bandwagon innocents one by one.

You are very defensive, admit that. I say one thing against you and it feels to me that you go to the ends of the earth to shut me down, and that is perfectly warranted. I just want to get it through to you that your aggression towards me is misguided, and to focus on others. I am obviously a poor wolf by the way I play, and I want us to get a wolf kill in.

Why did I vote for you? Because my dear, you are the most wolfish I have seen yet. Inz and Nog are up there, but they have been playing it close to the chest and still exploring other players, albeit Inz is changing.

If it turns out that we are both innocent, then this arguing towards each other is ultimately useless.

Xed: with Greenie

[A Little Green]

I won't have much time to play toDay I'm afraid, but I'll do my best!

Originally Posted by Cop

And Greenie, presumably your reasons from yesterDay weren't the only ones you had for suspecting Boro. Could you tell us now about what the rest was?

That takes us to the embarrassing part. Basically, I thought you were the Seer and had dreamed him a Wizard. I had considered that a possibility since Day 1 (which was why I didn't vote for you though I found your vote a bit dodgy). That coupled with his odd behaviour yesterDay made me pretty convinced he was a Wizard. I obviously didn't want to say aloud that I thought him a Seer-dreamed baddie; actually I was thinking to stay off him until toDay and if you still weren't dead, drop the issue. But in lack of other decent lynch candidates on the block, and given that he got more blatantly suspicious by the minute, I decided to go with it already yesterDay. A mistake, obviously.

Regarding Brinn: I agree that her Seerishness pretty much clears Rikae. As for Gil and Nog - I'm not sure she dreamed either of them; Gil is a possibility but I don't think Nog is. As in - if she had dreamed a Nogzard, I seriously doubt she would have specifically said that her preferred lynch choice was someone else.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Interestingly, though, she talks about Nogrod as "one to watch" (#187) and says she will "keep an eye on him" (#203). At this point, it looks a lot more like she's planning to dream Nog then Gil.

I feel a bit stupid asking this, but why would a Seer hint beforehand at who she means to dream of? Seems risky to me, and I don't see Brinn as a risk-taking Seer.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally and Nerwen

[Coppermirror]

++Gil

Hopefully this will be correct. I won't be back before the deadline.