WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Exactly what I was thinking. Nerwen's thinking is rather narrow minded. I remember from past experiences as a wolf that unless we had a really good feel on who might be the seer, we would go after either a no trace or someone who could potentially be dangerous (but whose death wouldn't incriminate us).

Now if this was unusual behavior from Rikae, it'd be one thing. But she's acted this way before, so I don't think there's any need to get so worked up over it.

I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.

[McCaber]

So based on today's actions, Rikae looks better than she did, and Morsul looks worse. This seems like a frustrated innocent getting caught up in personal stress (speaking of, I really hope it gets better for you, Rikae), because I've seen her act like this in the past. In a tense, late game situation a wolfae might try a gambit like this, but there's just no gain now.

Morsul, on the other hand, looks like an opportunist wizard leaping on the chance to get an easy kill off.

[Morsul the Dark]

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.

You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.

Unless "lynched by Poe's LAw" is a joke(which I don't get) No I didn't.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

Ive just texted him and he says he is unlikely to return toDay because his Internet is still being wonky.

Hmm...I wonder if any chance he'll be able to get a free pass due to his internet situation. Otherwise, it looks like we'll be losing three players toDay, which is unfortunate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hmm...I wonder if any chance he'll be able to get a free pass due to his internet situation. Otherwise, it looks like we'll be losing three players toDay, which is unfortunate.

The mods have not yet had time to discuss this in full but I think we could give Shasta a free pass still for one more day, since it's for technical reasons - and just hope that he will be able to make it later. Bane seems not responding, so unless he appears (which would be nice), he will be modfired. Otherwise, a reminder for everyone, that they should vote, especially those, who did not do so yesterDay.

[Brinniel]

It was a hasty vote, Morsul. Considering there was discussion going on about the subject, you should've given your input, but held off on voting. Unless you weren't going to be around for the rest of the Day, which clearly you are.

[Brinniel]

Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Not everyone has shown up either. I don't believe we've heard from Kath or Gil. The prospect of Bane reappearing is starting to look bleak. And what's going on with Shasta? He's at risk for modfire too.

[satansaloser2005]

Ive just texted him and he says he is unlikely to return toDay because his Internet is still being wonky.

[Coppermirror]

Overall opinions

Boro: Doubt I'll be voting for him, for reasons given above. His explanation for the vote I was worried about wasn't bad, but doesn't remove all the suspicion about vote placement. I'm also curious to find out what Greenie says is bad about him. She will have to come up with something toMorrow.

Nog: also has suspicious vote placement on Day 1, and on Day 2 he thought Ozban was a better choice than Morsul (granted, I thought the latter too and so did some others). Was his post toDay one which placed undue suspicion on Rikae? Not especially. If made by a wolf,

Morsul: His vote for Rikae toDay looked hasty. There are still assorted things that I mentioned yesterDay which make me concerned bout him. On the other hand, I don't find the point many people focused on to be persuasive.

If Volo's death was for looking Seerish, his comment on Morsul looking genuine speaks in his favour. But if it wasn't, it might have been a tactic to throw off suspicion of Morsul, because of the perceived Morsul-Volo connection and Volo's statement of him as innocent. (Which...means that in reality, chances are the cobbler thought Morsul looked fishy and wizardy.)

McCaber: I'm a bit less suspicious of him toDay than I was yesterDay. Not a voting candidate at present.

Gil-Galad: He had some very suspicious logic yesterDay. It could be that he is a wizard relying upon people believing that random or illogical things are just part of his playing style, but that makes it hard to know whether or not he's guilty.

Gil voted Volo. There was good reason for an innocent to suspect Volo, and a lot of people did. It would also be a very safe vote for a wizard. (As were many votes that Day, unfortunately.)

I don't think I'll be making a Greenie vote toDay, but I will carefully consider all the information about her before the next Day and hope to have an opinion then. I also need to take a really good look at Nerwen, because so far I haven't been able to get a good feel for her behaviour.

I'm not currently concerned about: Loslote, Bane, Shasta, Inzil, Sally.
Brin I'm feeling more neutral about than I was yesterDay, and I'll want to look back on her posts in case there's something I've missed.

Rikae's behaviour toDay is a bit of a headache. It could be a wizardy confusion tactic, but I don't see why a wizard would be this desperate toDay. Especially since Rikae has a funeral to go to toDay, and that could up stress levels like anything, I'm inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she's an innocent ordo.

ToDay I'm considering voting for: Gil, Morsul, Nog. In no particular order.

Edit: formatting

[Coppermirror]

Votes so far toDay

Rikae -> Rikae
Nerwen -> Rikae (2)
Morsul -> Rikae (3)

McCaber -> Morsul

Yet to vote:

Bane - has he shown up toDay?
Boromir
Brinniel
Coppermirror
Gil
Greenie
Inzil
Kath - has she shown up toDay?
Loslote
Nogrod
Sally

Shasta - absent due to internet problems

I don't think people are wanting to lynch Rikae toDay, and because she already has three votes, we have to be very careful. There's only an hour left til deadline, right? If she's telling the truth, she's an ordo, but we still don't want to lynch her by accident.

[Coppermirror]

Votes so far

Rikae -> Rikae
Nerwen -> Rikae (2)
Morsul -> Rikae (3)
McCaber -> Morsul
Boromir -> Greenie
Lottie -> Nerwen
Gil -> Boro

Yet to vote:

Bane - haven't seen him toDay
Brinniel
Coppermirror
Greenie
Inzil
Kath
Nogrod
Sally

Shasta - absent due to internet problems

[Coppermirror]

Rest of Inzil and Kath analysis, going from page 10.

Inzil

#370 - Agrees with Brin about how unlikely Rikae is to be a wizard. Doesn't see Morsul's Rikae as a wizard scenario as likely, and reminds him that he was saying he thought she might be the purseholder earlier. (There does seem to be a decent amount of interaction with Morsul in Inzil's posts...Overall I'd say that they're unlikely both to be wizards, so it's probably one or them or none of them.)

#390 - In response to my comment about how we shouldn't lynch Rikae, says he isn't going to vote for Rikae. "Leave her to the Seer". (So, a suggestion to the Seer to dream of Rikae. Although he didn't really seem to think before that Rikae could be a wizard, so wouldn't dreaming of her be a bit of a waste? A wizard might really want to encourage a dream of an innocent.)

- then talks about how Morsul seems to be backpedaling.
- and Kath's #383 post strikes him as odd, like something he would say as a baddie himself.

#395 - After Brin talks about why she's suspecting Boro, he points out that Gil is suspicious and had voted Boro. He can't decide whether Nerwen's a wizard or an ordo, and doesn't find Nog particularly suspicious and says that's cause for worry in itself.

#398 - Not impressed with Morsul's vote. Talks about Morsul, Gil, and Boro as voting options. Wasn't suspicious of Boro until his Greenie vote.

#412 - Votes Gil, agrees with me about being unwilling to vote Boro after Gil's vote for him.

#440 - Thought that Gil already looked dodgy, hence his vote the previous Day. Wonders why the wizards didn't kill him instead of Brin.

#453, arguing with Gil over an inconsistency in the latter's interpretation of the previous Day.

#483 - Thinks Gil is an easy pick but hasn't done anything to make himself look better that Day. Finds Kath's vote interesting and can sort of see her reasoning, but doesn't know what to make of it yet. At #485, votes Gil.

Kath

#383 - Is back, and doesn't think it's a surprise that Volo was killed, given how Seerish she thought he sounded the other Day.

#392 - Irritation over the wizard of Oz thing.

#399 - Wants to know if Rikae officially quit and if so when she'd be mod-killed. And then #400, wants Sally to do a tally of votes.

#421 - Votes Morsul for the "innocent Cab" thing and unsatisfactory explanations. But Boro is lynched because he got 4 votes first. Could be a deliberate wizard choice to save Morsul by delaying vote placement, but it's probably too hard to tell, given that I doubt Kath was lying about having only just shown up. She only had about 20 minutes or so to backread and vote.

#473 - posts about concerns about Sally. Then at #479, votes Sally.

Originally Posted by Kath

I think the way she was around Gil - half defending him and then voting for him was odd. Also I'd rather the Day didn't end up just being the whole village bandwaggoning onto one vote.

And that's everything going up til toDay. Conclusions to follow.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Yes. I expect people to use their better judgment. The situation doesn't add up for Rikae being evil and simultaneously freaking out like that. That would put a vast undue burden on packmates in the very early stages of the game. And her whole confession post is incoherent probably on purpose trying to showcase the absurdity of her actions.

[Nerwen]

Arrrgh! I am approaching the "rage quit" stage. I never said all wolves will always target the Seer under all circumstances. I was responding to Rikae's contention that they so rarely do that there's something wrong with even looking at the kill from that angle. This is simply false.

I am getting tired of this whole thing. Maybe I look like I'm persecuting her, but it wasn't my intention and the fact is she has been quite unreasonable.

EDIT: x'd with McCaber.

[Boromir88]

No one rage-quitting, please...no one. Calm down. Both sides seem to be misinterpretting what the others are saying, and it doesn't help when you go after it as "my words are getting twisted etc."

Different packs of people behave differently and go after kills for different reasons depending on the situation. Nerwen's not being unreasonable when the fact is analyzing the night kill is what we're supposed to do. I figured we'd get the "they thought Volo was the seer" theory as it's the first basic assumption when someone is killed. We wouldn't be doing a proper job if we just ignored the night-kill.

What needed to be kept in mind is whatever the roles thought in killing Volo, what Volo actually said about his suspicions/innocents/people is just going to lead us in circles. To use his posts to pinpoint what the wizards thought he got right, and thus why they killed Volo, is not going to get us anywhere. It's just as possible maybe they saw his "I need to vote for Nerwen to save McCaber" and then Day 2 "I feel better about Nerwen" as the seerish vibe and thus to get rid of someone who gave a seer vibe before he dreamed on of them.

What's suspicious is the reason's Rikae hasn't so eloquently or clearly pointed out. That is the spin Nog appears to be putting on the kill and that is "they thought Volo was the seer because he was right about one of his suspects." That is where the set up seems to be, and Rikae over-reacted to believe the wizards were setting up her. I agree with Nerwen that if wolves think a seer has pinned one of them, they kill the seer, if killed person turns out to be the seer they bus the wolf that looks bad.

Volo also said I've been reminding him of when we were wolves together. I think Nerwen pointed this out earlier, but has since focused on Rikae. I didn't say anything at the time, but for the sake of attempting not to make this all about Nerwen vs. Rikae. If I were a wizard and worried Volo pinned me, I'd definitely kill him no matter what would wind up happening to me. That being said, I would hope enough know by now I don't panic at every "I have a bad feeling Boro is bad" statement. I accept it's part of my reputation innocents hope I'm on their side, but won't ever trust me until I'm dead and revealed innocent, or cleared by the seer. Cop's had vague gut-feeling day 1, day 2 said for some unknown reason "I feel like I should be voting for Boro right about now" if I were a wizard what makes anyone think I'd go for Volo over Cop's unsubstantiated "bad gut-feelings" about me? Greenie has now provided no reason for bad feelings about me. I'm sure others I haven't read more carefully have stated something similar. The "I don't trust Boro/bad gut feelings" get tossed around more each game than I like to toss dwarves in sacks around.

I'd really really like to get responses and reactions to my posts analyzing people today. Particularly what the crowd thinks of my Nog and Greenie suspicions. If ya'll don't trust my findings and decide I'm suspicious enough to lynch, so be it. I'd like it remembered when I'm revealed innocent Greenie has twice given veil hints to knowing there's something rotten about me, but has withheld her reasons both times.

[Boromir88]

Crossed with several, but I forgot to respond to Cop here:

Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.

Day 1 I wasn't suspicious of Pom, I was suspicious of you, Brinn, and Nog. Seeing as you had some votes, the others didn't, and despite McCaber and Pom looking opportunistic to latch on and vote for you I wanted to vote for the person I was suspicious of...you.

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

I noticed that, too, but as I was a part of that situation I decided to wait on it and see if there would be any fallout from it rather than immediately leap in with a passioned defense and turn it into a big thing right there.

But I agree with your points. It felt really weird to me to be jumped on and have Pom ignored.

EDIT: X'd with CM.

[Brinniel]

Gil

Pom was trying to be a sneaky wizer and gave a vote for Cop, thinking that vote will have nothing to come of it and evade suspicion on Pom and Cop being Wizers. Then Cab voted for Cop. Pom paniced, fearing that if more people vote for WizerCop(keeping the hooliganwizers off the streets har har), Cop will be lynched.

I think that's a stretch. Copper was already gathering some attention for her vote. As someone already mentioned, Pom's vote looked more opportunistic.

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

Nog is least suspected, since he just threw his vote and it had little effect besides state his intention to suspect Cab.

I just have to look at Green, Oz and Rik closer now toDay if I feel they smell like a wizer, but I won't jump to conclusions. Same goes with Cop, my prime suspect in this plot.

So at the beginning of the Day, his suspects are Greenie, Oz, Rikae, andCopper, with Copper at the top.

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

Then he starts suspecting me. I already noted that me trusting Nerwen was a false statement.

Volo has been one that has been playing rather... Sloppy. This could mean that Vol has no role and thus little interest, or trying to play it super low if given a role. The bandwagon comment and bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee is unsettling.

Thus for toDay, I am going to have to say:

++Volo

If he turns out to be an Ordo, then I will have to go back to my initial suspect of Brin. We shall see toNight as I won't be back on until right before the deadline.

Then he suddenly suspects and votes for Volo, dropping all his suspects from earlier in the Day (particularly Copper). He did say he was going to take a closer look at them, but if he did, he didn't mention it.

I noticed Gil bandwagoned on my vote both Days. I don't know if that's just some weird coincidence.

The rest of his posts that Day are defensive with the woe-is-me attitude. I didn't mind him acting that way at first, but he hasn't backed off of it. I recall seeing this behavior from both an evil and innocent Gil. And I do wonder if perhaps a Gil-wolf may be relying on this behavior to appear as a frustrated ordinary innocent.

That and his inconsistency in suspicion has me worried about him. I did see that he posted that he might not participate much toDay. I do hope he shows up before deadline though, because I'd like to hear from him.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If she were a baddie, Rikae would have to rely on the idea that most players would believe her to be a suicidal innocent, which would be an awfully risky move. Anyone who self-votes is putting themselves at high risk of getting lynched, and if an evil Rikae were lynched, the ratio would be 13-2, making it extremely difficult for the remaining baddies to pull off a win, especially with three gifteds still alive. If an evil Rikae felt certain the increasing lynch would result in her lynch, it seems more likely she would false reveal than self-vote.

I don't know how likely she be the hunter either. This early in the game chances are she'd take down another innocent. And while odds are against it, it'd be particularly disastrous if she accidentally took out the ranger or seer.

This matches my take on the whole, strange situation. Even if a Wizard-Rikae was somehow able to convince everyone she was innocent, she'd be opening herself to the Seer. I can't really see the source of the original drama, though. I mean, yes, Rikae was under some suspicion, but it doesn't appear to have been anything out of the ordinary. So I don't know about the deal between her and Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

I just don't see this as likely. And didn't you initially say you thought Rikae could be the Purseholder, and that was a factor in your vote?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I noticed Gil bandwagoned on my vote both Days. I don't know if that's just some weird coincidence.

That caught my eye as well. If he was a Wizard and you an innocent, it might be a way to either buddy up to you or draw attention to you if he was outed.

[Brinniel]

++Boromir

[Brinniel]

Nogrod is the other one I'm worried about.

His Day 1 vote did look fishy. He explained his tactic the next Day, which did make me feel a little better about him, but a Nogwolf would be clever enough to come up with some reasonable explanation for his vote.

Day 2 he and Sally were the last two to vote, deciding between the two options. Nogrod mentioned that it was possible both candidates were innocent and the baddies could be just sitting back and letting it happen. I do agree that's possible, but I also think Nogrod could be one of those baddies. While Sally stated she was more suspicious of Morsul, Nogrod was ready to go either way. If he were a wizard and Morsul innocent, it wouldn't matter which of the two got lynched.

ToDay I'm worried about him because of his focus on Volo. While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer). As Boro mentioned, Volo was the cobbler and analyzing his posts and the reasons he was killed will just keep us going in circles. Not to mention, distract us from looking at other things. An evil Nogrod would encourage that, and maybe even chose Volo for that purpose.

[Nogrod]

Okay back and reading soon... only two full pages to read.

Just a quick one for this last one I saw above this post Brinn talks about me.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

ToDay I'm worried about him because of his focus on Volo. While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer). As Boro mentioned, Volo was the cobbler and analyzing his posts and the reasons he was killed will just keep us going in circles. Not to mention, distract us from looking at other things. An evil Nogrod would encourage that, and maybe even chose Volo for that purpose.

Yeah. I was online in the start of the Day and shortly in the middle. Sorry. I have not had time to do anything else toDay. But then again, I do think I have concentrated my effort on the best clue we have right now, which is why they picked Volo.

I'm not sure it is the only possible solution they picked him because they thought he was the seer, but if you have a better idea about why they picked him I'm all ears (and not sure if someone has actually done that already in the two pages I haven't yet read - going to do that like now).

What I do dislike (and find a bit disturbing) - if Brinn quotes him right - is Boro's comment of the thought going in circles if we look at Volo because he was the cobbler.

No. Not at all. The thought was about asking why the wolves decided to pick Volo exactly (aka. not knowing he was the cobbler). Volo's actual role has nothing to do with that question.

And Boro should see that.

EDIT: X'd with Copper & McCaber

[Brinniel]

Not worried about
Rikae: Just looks like a frustrated ordo.
Copper: As already stated, I'm still thinking that Pom's vote was probably not wolf-on-wolf.
Greenie: I'm feeling good about her posts toDay. They seem well thought-out and logical enough.
Shasta: Hope he shows up toMorrow.
Inzil: His Day 1 vote makes him look more innocent and he hasn't said anything to change my opinion of that.
Loslote: Already was leaning innocent because of her Day 1 vote, plus I like what she's said toDay and agree with a lot of it.
Bane: Will probably be modfired.
Sally: I suppose there's always the possibility she's a very sneaky wizard who threw her mate under the bus, but I see no reason to suspect her.
Boromir: Still not sure about him, but I like what he's said toDay.
Nerwen: Like Rikae, looks more like a frustrated innocent.

Not sure what to think
Morsul: His behavior never fails to confuse me. I'm slightly leaning toward innocent, but still feeling uncertain.
McCaber: I don't know. Pom trying to place focus on him makes him look better, but I'm still at a question mark.
Kath: I didn't like her vote yesterDay; she seemed to simply echo others' comments. But she was a bit behind, so that might be part of it.

Worried about (for reasons already stated)
Gil
Nogrod