WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.

No, see, you're not reading properly what Rikae is saying. From what I understand after reading through her posts quite thoroughly is that she's saying exactly what I was saying, but she was more frustrated and upset, and thus what she said could be misunderstood. She's not putting forward a straw-man argument. She's taking what she perceives to be unjustified suspicion of her and explaining why it isn't necessarily the case. She isn't saying the wizards don't look for the Seer - she's saying that's not the only factor in their kill choice. Big difference.

[satansaloser2005]

So....I have myself a new toy, and toDay we're going to see how poorly/slowly I type on it.

I still say Morsul is a wolf, and that Volo tried to save him. I have no idea why they would have killed him though.

Rikae was oddly pushy about me having a look at Oz yesterDay, which I also find highly suspicious, especially given that we now know he's innocent.

I've read little to nothing of toDay's posts, but those were my feelings as of the beginning of toDay. I'll be back later-ish after I've eaten and actually read the entire thread.

[McCaber]

Back. Reading. So far it looks like a really weird situation.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Exactly what I was thinking. Nerwen's thinking is rather narrow minded. I remember from past experiences as a wolf that unless we had a really good feel on who might be the seer, we would go after either a no trace or someone who could potentially be dangerous (but whose death wouldn't incriminate us).

Now if this was unusual behavior from Rikae, it'd be one thing. But she's acted this way before, so I don't think there's any need to get so worked up over it.

I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.

[McCaber]

So based on today's actions, Rikae looks better than she did, and Morsul looks worse. This seems like a frustrated innocent getting caught up in personal stress (speaking of, I really hope it gets better for you, Rikae), because I've seen her act like this in the past. In a tense, late game situation a wolfae might try a gambit like this, but there's just no gain now.

Morsul, on the other hand, looks like an opportunist wizard leaping on the chance to get an easy kill off.

[Morsul the Dark]

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.

You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.

Unless "lynched by Poe's LAw" is a joke(which I don't get) No I didn't.

[Brinniel]

It was a hasty vote, Morsul. Considering there was discussion going on about the subject, you should've given your input, but held off on voting. Unless you weren't going to be around for the rest of the Day, which clearly you are.

[Brinniel]

Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Not everyone has shown up either. I don't believe we've heard from Kath or Gil. The prospect of Bane reappearing is starting to look bleak. And what's going on with Shasta? He's at risk for modfire too.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Yes. I expect people to use their better judgment. The situation doesn't add up for Rikae being evil and simultaneously freaking out like that. That would put a vast undue burden on packmates in the very early stages of the game. And her whole confession post is incoherent probably on purpose trying to showcase the absurdity of her actions.

[Nerwen]

Arrrgh! I am approaching the "rage quit" stage. I never said all wolves will always target the Seer under all circumstances. I was responding to Rikae's contention that they so rarely do that there's something wrong with even looking at the kill from that angle. This is simply false.

I am getting tired of this whole thing. Maybe I look like I'm persecuting her, but it wasn't my intention and the fact is she has been quite unreasonable.

EDIT: x'd with McCaber.

[Boromir88]

No one rage-quitting, please...no one. Calm down. Both sides seem to be misinterpretting what the others are saying, and it doesn't help when you go after it as "my words are getting twisted etc."

Different packs of people behave differently and go after kills for different reasons depending on the situation. Nerwen's not being unreasonable when the fact is analyzing the night kill is what we're supposed to do. I figured we'd get the "they thought Volo was the seer" theory as it's the first basic assumption when someone is killed. We wouldn't be doing a proper job if we just ignored the night-kill.

What needed to be kept in mind is whatever the roles thought in killing Volo, what Volo actually said about his suspicions/innocents/people is just going to lead us in circles. To use his posts to pinpoint what the wizards thought he got right, and thus why they killed Volo, is not going to get us anywhere. It's just as possible maybe they saw his "I need to vote for Nerwen to save McCaber" and then Day 2 "I feel better about Nerwen" as the seerish vibe and thus to get rid of someone who gave a seer vibe before he dreamed on of them.

What's suspicious is the reason's Rikae hasn't so eloquently or clearly pointed out. That is the spin Nog appears to be putting on the kill and that is "they thought Volo was the seer because he was right about one of his suspects." That is where the set up seems to be, and Rikae over-reacted to believe the wizards were setting up her. I agree with Nerwen that if wolves think a seer has pinned one of them, they kill the seer, if killed person turns out to be the seer they bus the wolf that looks bad.

Volo also said I've been reminding him of when we were wolves together. I think Nerwen pointed this out earlier, but has since focused on Rikae. I didn't say anything at the time, but for the sake of attempting not to make this all about Nerwen vs. Rikae. If I were a wizard and worried Volo pinned me, I'd definitely kill him no matter what would wind up happening to me. That being said, I would hope enough know by now I don't panic at every "I have a bad feeling Boro is bad" statement. I accept it's part of my reputation innocents hope I'm on their side, but won't ever trust me until I'm dead and revealed innocent, or cleared by the seer. Cop's had vague gut-feeling day 1, day 2 said for some unknown reason "I feel like I should be voting for Boro right about now" if I were a wizard what makes anyone think I'd go for Volo over Cop's unsubstantiated "bad gut-feelings" about me? Greenie has now provided no reason for bad feelings about me. I'm sure others I haven't read more carefully have stated something similar. The "I don't trust Boro/bad gut feelings" get tossed around more each game than I like to toss dwarves in sacks around.

I'd really really like to get responses and reactions to my posts analyzing people today. Particularly what the crowd thinks of my Nog and Greenie suspicions. If ya'll don't trust my findings and decide I'm suspicious enough to lynch, so be it. I'd like it remembered when I'm revealed innocent Greenie has twice given veil hints to knowing there's something rotten about me, but has withheld her reasons both times.

[Boromir88]

Crossed with several, but I forgot to respond to Cop here:

Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.

Day 1 I wasn't suspicious of Pom, I was suspicious of you, Brinn, and Nog. Seeing as you had some votes, the others didn't, and despite McCaber and Pom looking opportunistic to latch on and vote for you I wanted to vote for the person I was suspicious of...you.

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

I noticed that, too, but as I was a part of that situation I decided to wait on it and see if there would be any fallout from it rather than immediately leap in with a passioned defense and turn it into a big thing right there.

But I agree with your points. It felt really weird to me to be jumped on and have Pom ignored.

EDIT: X'd with CM.