WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know, I bet the wizards had plenty of time to discuss Volo's seerish sounding remarks and how they could spin them in their favor when they were choosing their kill.

The best thing for the village now is to know my role, although it will mean that Volo's cobblery and the wolves scheme will have been successful. But hey, there they are, tipping their hand, and there are plenty of innocents left to take care of them, right?

++Rikae

Actually, there are four players in danger of modfire toDay, so that's not really very helpful, Rikae. And if you're innocent and the intent was really to frame you– which I don't think anyone has ruled out– well, all right, but you can't expect us not to look into it, can you?

[Rikae]

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

Okay, that's helpful...

++Rikae

[Rikae]

Yay!

Lynched by Poe's law.

[Boromir88]

Took a nap and this Day 2 stuff is getting tedious to go through. Will post the analysis on everyone I have, keep in mind it is mostly with the Day 1 action in mind, with some of the Day 2 discussion added in:

Cop:

Makes a vote for me that several pointed out being suspicious over. Mostly it seemed like a safe throwaway vote for Day 1 and reasoned purely as an unexplained gut-feeling. Nog doesn’t understand where the idea came from that Cop’s vote wasn’t random, but that came from Cop herself who in #58 said it was either cast a vote for me, a random vote, or abstain from voting, so she decided the first option. It had the look of a random vote but Cop was quite clear not to interpret it as random, but as having a bad gut-feeling. I still don’t like the vote, but it could just be revengeful feelings and you have to consider Pom’s vote Day 1.

Pom would have known there was significant suspicion building against Cop, especially after that string of post #92-94, all pointing out unease about Cop. Pom’s vote was opportunistic, which means she probably wasn’t trying to bus one of her mates. Pom’s post after seeing McCaber’s vote, looks like a wizard who tried to have it both ways. Someone who herself was jumping at the opportunistic lynch, but also trying to make herself look innocent by advising us to watch the Cop voters. Pom’s reaction just doesn’t fit with the interpretation of Cop also being a wizard.

Gil:

Not much more to add than what I already said before, looks jumpy about anything he says seems to be getting turned on him. But agree with sally in #96, don’t see why a Gilwizer would “lay it on so thick” with the victim act.

Inzil:

Nothing looks remotely off about Zil, and I don’t say this to mean he looks too clean, but someone who normally has a good grasp on Zil’s alignment. As a baddie Zil is the master of double-talk and non-committal. Post 23 looks particularly innocent when he responds to Morsul that Pom’s statement (“And as little information as trolling around gives us, saying nothing gives us even less.”) was sensible enough but looked like a generic Day 1 comment. Zil’s bussed packmates before, but I have a hard time seeing he’d put attention on a Pomwizer and bus her Day 1.

Kath:

Nothing of note, other than we can say Morsul seeing a cobbler-hint was indeed a grasp at straws.

Lottie:

Looks about as good as Zil. The differences being Late in Day 1 she’s left her options open. In #121 states she feels good about Greenie, Rikae and Bane, her only listed suspect is Pom. I say it leaves her options open because none of the ones she feels as innocent in 121 were in danger of being lynched. Then in #131 says she disagrees with the “waves of suspicion” against Gil. Copper, and McCaber, and thus votes Pom. Since Lottie had made no statement about those 3 earlier, she had her options open, and could have been a mate bussing Pom since she previously stated suspicions against Pom.

The question remains if Lottie’s a wizard, she clearly left her options open, saw there were 3 other choices, so why state dislike for the waves of suspicion that happened against Gil, Copper, and McCaber, why push Pom to the lynch at all? There was no need for a wizard in Lottie’s situation to vote for a packmate there.

McCaber:

The stand out point seems to be Day 1 he voted a few hours before the DL but still stayed around for the discussion. This caused some exchanges between him, Greenie, and Nog.

#116 McCaber explains his reasons:

I had suspicions and didn't feel like waiting until the last 10 minutes of the Night to get them hashed out. I don't like last-minute surprises.

I forgot to point this out earlier, but Greenie’s response to this does not look good to me:

Fair enough - although unless I'm mistaken, it's still over an hour until deadline. For myself, I'm seldom so sure on Day 1 that I'd feel ready to make a decision with that long still to go (provided that I was around until DL, anyway), especially since quite a lot tends to happen during the last two hours.

She says “fair enough” which I take to be an acceptance of “to each their own, I do this differently but OK.” Despite seemingly accepting McCaber’s explanation, she still puts a negative interpretation that it is still over an hour until the DL, and she wouldn’t make a decision that early if she was around until the DL. If Greenie’s doesn’t look good, Nog’s just looks bad:

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

Granted I don’t vote as early as McCaber before the DL if I know I’m staying around, but I have done the same. If I’m sure my opinion isn’t going to change I don’t see a point in holding it for a last minute fury at the DL simply because I will still be around until the DL. I try more to give a person a chance to respond to suspicions if they’ve left for the day, but if I’m sure nothing will look more suspicious than someone making a bad-looking Day 1 vote why bother holding it to the end? Nogrod tries to cast it as suspicious behavior, which I don't understand why it is suspicious?

Morsul:

What I said here -

Morsul's is less buthersom, cuz we see a clear line of logic...er logical amongst troll herds...mmm herds need shepp'erds shepp'erds are some fine dining. Umm oh, Morsul's vote. I wouldn't vote for Kath based on his reasons, but his early vote dispalys his mind and what he's thinking clear enough. It's reasonin' we can track, if you follow me, and not gut-feelings.
…
Boils down to we know what Morsul's thinking with his early vote. Can't tell what Cop is.

Nerwen:

Aggressively pursues Gil, but her reasons are understandable. Gil gave her a 2nd vote early on for a bad reason. Doesn’t vote, a staple of Nerwen except the infamously cursed game where she voted Day 1 and it seemed a mass illness spread through the entire village.

Nogrod:

Does chalk up his non-committal attitude for most of the day as having very little time, ok I can see that. More of a red flag though is what I stated in the McCaber analysis…trying to frame the behavior that voting early while still being around after the vote is suspicious, that’s really a stretch and I don’t see why it should be interpreted as suspicious, just McCaber having a different approach. Now, we also know his vote for McCaber and strange “So it is Pom” was not made by the cobbler. Given that many seem to be of the opinion “don’t worry about the cobbler, get the wizards, I wouldn’t put it past a wizard-Nogrod to actually look like the cobbler, knowing there would be reluctance to voting for someone appearing to be a cobbler. As it stands though, Nog can no longer go through with that plan, if indeed he is a wizard acting cobbler. (Needs to check Nog's Day 2 posts to see if this "act like the cobbler because people are generally less gun-ho about lynching the cobbler" theory holds water).

Rikae:

Leaning innocent, later in the Day involved in much of the action. States unease about Cop’s recap of the banter, but also quick to point out doesn’t like Pom and McCaber’s jump at voting for Cop. #119 and #120 are interesting, she says Greenie is being too agreeable for a troll, but recanted in 120 because Greenie brings up points against McCaber. Now, in Day 2 McCaber says it seems Rikae was turning the focus away from Pom and onto him, yet as I said earlier, Greenie had been doing the same thing. Greenie is then quick to confirm this is a shrewd point in McCaber’s favor.

sally:

Lots of banter, but her end of the day actions are as green as can be. Looks like a wise sally voting wisely.

Shasta:

The clinching vote for Pom, Shasta will bus teammates if it makes him look better, but a wizard-Shasta at this point had no need to make himself look particularly good. He wasn’t going to get lynched, no one stated suspicions against him. He’s not one to just backstab a mate when there was no immediate need to make himself look innocent.

Volo:

He’s all over the place with McCaber (add now knowing he’s the cobbler, it makes more sense) from testing him in #55, saying in #132 McCaber is more on the “naughty side” and then suddenly #137 votes Nerwen to now “save McCaber.”

Looking at the first several posts today...it needs to be said Volo is the cobbler, and while it is only logical he was killed because the wizards thought he was the seer, it doesn’t change the fact that Volo was making statements to confuse, mislead, and go around in circles. So, while it’s reasonable to speculate “wizards were gunning for the seer,” Volo’s posts were designed entirely with the intent to confuse us, therefore what he actually said needs to be looked at with a grain of salt, not stressed that it somehow contains traceable info because the wizards possibly thought he was the seer.

Also, I've so far left out my Ozban analysis, because considering this drive for people to find seer hints in Volo's posting. The fact remains Ozban was a lynched ordo. His conclusions may be wrong, but it's the intent behind his posting and reason we can now trust as innocent. We know he was posting with innocent intentions...Volo wasn't. Period. I want to go through all of Ozban's posts to see if any conclusions can be made, there is value to knowing we can trust Ozban's intentions behind his posts. Can't trust Volo's.

Edit: crossed with Rikae, Nerwen, Brinn several times...umm what is going on?

[McCaber]

Huh. As much as I feel Rikae delenda est, I think this sort of behavior we see from her is not what a wolf Rikae would be doing in that situation. And this leaves me rather conflicted.

I guess today's vote won't be so easy as yesterdays was for me. I will need to look further.

[Nerwen]

Before this goes any further: I do know all about Rikae's history of self-voting, hence my reply to her. When, however, she confessed– or as it may be, "confessed"– I took it to mean she was a wolf who had initially meant to fight it out, but on closer reading had decided there was too much against her, and too much risk of her comrades implicating themselves by trying to save her.

As I said: if she's innocent it was certainly very unhelpful of her at this point.

[A Little Green]

First off - so sorry for not voting yesterDay! It's embarrassing, really; I thought I'd vote after taking a shower, then when I got back I somehow thought I had already voted and went to bed. Just for the record, though, my vote would have been for Morsul or McCaber, probably Morsul since he seemed more likely to get lynched. (If I'm not mistaken, he would have been if I had not forgotten to vote. Bah.)

Originally Posted by Kath

McCaber being the first ... may have felt like a safe vote but then would Pom have followed that vote up if McCaber were a wolf? But that phrase 'suspicion-mongering' from McCaber I still don't like.

The thing is, Pom and McCaber cross-posted I believe, so she didn't think she was following anyone up.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I still think Volo's vote the least suspicious among he, Nog and Boro. Now he has two votes, one of them Gil. Interestingly, Gil also was the second vote for Nerwen YesterNight. As part of his reasoning for voting Volo, he cites the latter's "bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee". When he himself voted for Nerwen?

Interesting observation. Makes my brain hurt, though.

Originally Posted by Boro

This is why she remains “somewhat suspicious of McCaber”…(My note of interest here: Considering Greenie voted for McCaber and gave 3 reasons for it, albeit Day 1, and one of those a “gut-feeling” it still had the appearance of about as reasoned as a vote as one might expect for Day 1. I’m not sure what changed…I would think she would still remain highly suspicious about the fact that McCaber made an opportunistic looking vote and not attempt to slowly back away from the suspicion if it were earnest suspicions. This does raise the first big wizardly flags, because after trying to steer the focus onto McCaber the previous Day, given that Pomwizer was lynched, it seems Greenie wants to now drop the case). She brings up we may be over interpreting Pom’s peculiar statement, which makes it seem like she doesn’t want anyone going back to look at her posts trying to put focus onto McCaber’s vote and not Pom’s. Too bad, I have.

Definitely suspicious of Greenie’s actions. In #222 Greenie makes a sudden turn to feeling good about McCaber saying he made a "shrewd point" that Rikae was trying to turn focus on him and away from Pom. When interestly enough, Greenie was doing the same, she gave reasoned defenses for Pom’s post in #110, while also putting the focus on McCaber’s opportunistic looking vote.

I do still suspect McCaber. I just don't want to pursue it blindly; I've done that before, usually on innocents. I suspect him, but at the same time he makes points I agree with, which leaves me confused. I don't know anything, so I get second thoughts about every idea I have. Simple as that.

As for why I pursued him instead of Pom - he seemed to me the more suspicious of the two, mainly because I had also other reasons to suspect him than just the vote. I'm not sure it's justified to say I defended Pom, though. I just said it was possible her "Keep an eye on the Cop voters" was a joke, and that I found McCaber more suspicious than her.

Originally Posted by Nog

He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).

As for this, I've no idea what this means.
Nog brings up an interesting theory about the Wizers having thought Volo was the Seer; I agree that it's the only way the Volo kill makes any sense. He seemed a likely lynchee for toDay, as Cop pointed out, and created a lot of confusion, too (which we now know he did on purpose).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Confused by this, Nog That first paragraph seems to be describing a scenario of Rikae as the supposed Night 1 dream- then you say it wouldn't work as she couldn't be the Night 2 dream.

I wondered about the same. Nog, can you clarify?

Originally Posted by Brinn

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

That is actually a very clever point; almost too clever. It's true that the Wizers might want to be rid of players so uniformly considered innocent, but then again, they'd probably want to get rid of the Seer first. (It's also possible they tried one of the two on Night 2 and the ranger blocked it.) Something about this post rubs me the wrong way though; it could be something planned overNight, a strategy to incriminate Sally and Shasta by keeping them alive, and Brinn started it off a bit eagerly? I simply don't know, but it got me thinking for sure.

And now Rikae went and self-voted and called herself a wolf. Really not very helpful if she's innocent. Then again, also not helpful if she's a Wizer, so I'm mostly confused.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, who makes sense.

[Brinniel]

A couple things on Morsul:

Originally Posted by Morsul

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

This comment was one of the reasons people voted Morsul. Am I the only one who interpreted it as hypothetical from the get-go? I do think it got blown out of proportion and if Morsul is innocent, I wouldn't be surprised to see a wizard involved in raising suspicion on this comment.

Originally Posted by Morsul

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

This comment I don't blame others for being suspicious; it is rather flimsy. But I'm still not sure if it's necessarily wizard behavior.

[Brinniel]

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

Well, maybe it was, but I thought it was genuine. If not she's being bloody annoying and had no call to do that.