WW: XCVIII ~ Game Thread ~ Death at the Foot of Taniquetil - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

A Little Green · 10-21-2012, 02:45 AM

Nog? Seriously? That makes so little sense it isn't even funny.

What I would be very interested in knowing, though, is whether the remaining wolves know each other or not. I wonder if it would be mentioned in the narration or not. Probably not?

The trouble is, I agree with Nerwen and Copper that the possible scenarios for why the wolves would have gone for Nog look problematic. I just can't see the two wolves sitting down together and deciding to kill Nog, of all people. Like Copper said, shouldn't they be gunning for the Seer? Then again, if they don't know each other, gunning for the Seer would I guess be a deal harder, especially gunning for the same Seer. That, though, still doesn't explain why they both separately wanted to kill Nog.

Bleh. I don't know.

About yesterDay's lynch - that was insane, guys. Let's not repeat it, please? I was sad to see Shasta go, as he was among the few I felt relatively good about.

I'm going to have to vote very early toDay, probably some four to five hours before DL. On the bright side, though, I have stuff to do today but I should be able to pop in regularly until then.

A Little Green · 10-21-2012, 03:56 AM

So – two wolves in the following bunch (didn't realize we were this few until just now!) who do or do not know each other:

Nerwen – As impossible to read as always. I'd love a reread of her, might actually do that if I have time.
Sally – Still not comfortable with her for reasons stated yesterDay, looking forwards to seeing more.
Boro – Scares me. He's playing too careful. It would make sense for a wolf not knowing his fellows, I guess – he was very careful, especially early on, not to say anything too definite about anyone. Also, there has to be something wrong with a game where Nog purposefully brings about a random lynch and Boro is aggressive only when it's absolutely necessary!

Pom – Feeling slightly better about her than in the very beginning of the game, but not comfortable, either.
Coppermirror – Still liking what I'm seeing. If she's a wolf (It's a she, right? Or a he?), she's fooling me big time.
MCR – Not enough content to draw conclusions from.

So off the top of my head, if I had to make a guess, I'd say Sally and Boro look the worst - but since at least one of two wolves is always someone I forget to even consider, I wouldn't be surprised if the other was, say, MCR, or Nerwen, for that matter. Or anyone. This was a useful statement.

Nerwen · 10-21-2012, 04:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

But it might make a difference whether or not the wolves are in contact. If someone has the time, could you work out the odds of that?

The odds of the two current wolves making contact on Night One were 2:11, but after that there's too many unknowns– whether they were able to hint to each other, whether their other guesses remained alive. Still, I'd say there's a fairly good chance they have by now. I don't think the missed kill on Night Two tells us anything either way, as it seems likely Skipwolf never sent in a list at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greenie

The trouble is, I agree with Nerwen and Copper that the possible scenarios for why the wolves would have gone for Nog look problematic. I just can't see the two wolves sitting down together and deciding to kill Nog, of all people. Like Copper said, shouldn't they be gunning for the Seer? Then again, if they don't know each other, gunning for the Seer would I guess be a deal harder, especially gunning for the same Seer. That, though, still doesn't explain why they both separately wanted to kill Nog.

Something I should have thought of earlier: Nog was pretty jumpy yesterDay, wasn't he? To a wolf, that tends to scream "gifted".

A Little Green · 10-21-2012, 05:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Something I should have thought of earlier: Nog was pretty jumpy yesterDay, wasn't he? To a wolf, that tends to scream "gifted".

Good point. Although I'm not sure if he was more jumpy than usual, or only regular Nog-jumpy.

Nerwen · 10-21-2012, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Good point. Although I'm not sure if he was more jumpy than usual, or only regular Nog-jumpy.

I'm thinking mainly of his overreaction to Shasta's post, and then to the fact that people commented on it– I could certainly see that drawing wolfish attention.

Anyway. I've been having a look at various people; don't have time for a full analysis, so here are some thoughts and general impressions:

Greenie– Makes some very good points; can do that as a wolf, though, so I don't know...

Boro–. Hmmn. I've really– gasp!– got nothing against Mr88 this game. (It is, of course, never entirely wise to trust a live Boro until actually dreamed by the Seer.)

Pomegranate– Actually, you know, I'm feeling quite a lot better about her now.

Coppermirror– Pretty sensible, and is certainly making an effort. Still– her posting in the first two Days did rather justify Nogrod''s remark about "posting a lot while saying little" (#65). Also, not keen on her vote for my treasure yesterDay– her reasoning there seems quite contradictory.

Sally– has *really* posted a lot while saying little– except of course her rather unnecessary defence of Nog (whom she went on to vote for being "weird"!) I still haven't decided, but if had to vote now, I think Sally might be my choice.

MCR– Could be anything. Likely to be modfired, too.

Now, I wonder if it's any use looking for possible pairings yet? Also, would wolves have been for or against Nogrod's plan yesterDay?

A Little Green · 10-21-2012, 09:40 AM

Gah. I wrote a long post and Firefox went down and it's gone.

The main points I think were the following:

1) Nerwen's list gave me second thoughts about Copper. The ones I was considering voting toDay were Boro and Sally. I was leaning towards voting Boro toDay, but given that I need to vote soon and wish to avoid a scenario like yesterDay's I might consider voting Sally again after all. At least I wouldn't feel alone!

2) On possible pairings: I'd say that if you find one, you should look into it (especially if there are signs of possible hints/communication from before the two knew each other), but I would also advise against spending a great deal of time on looking for pairs as they might not even exist yet.

3) On whether the wolves would support Nog's voting plan or not: I would say generally no. I had a very long theory on this that I don't have the energy to type again, but the main point is that the planned randomizing of votes would mean, to a wolf, an increased possibility of a fellow getting killed, and less of a possibility to steer the lynch away from themselves. But since the same holds more or less true also for non-wolves (the randomizing of the lynch leading to a higher probability of someone they think is on their side getting lynched, and less opportunities to steer the lynch to the direction they want), which is why we can't really start pointing fingers based solely on who disagreed with Nog's plan.

Actually, now that I think on it, could the whole voting-plan thing be conneted to why Nog was killed? If the wolves don't know each other, I guess they consider their kill lists also in light of who is least probable to be a fellow; and if I'm right in assuming that Nog's voting plan would not have been beneficial for them, Nog would have seemed like an unlikely fellow. I'm not sure how much sense that makes, though, and there are a lot of ifs involved. Also, one could also make a case on how the randomized lynch makes it, in many ways, easier to hide in the voting (as opposed to the usual accusations of bandwagoning and throwaway votes and the like).

Hmm. I've just contradicted myself, haven't I?

Also, Nog's voting plan sounds like a World War Two strategy...

A Little Green · 10-21-2012, 09:47 AM

All right. I need to dash now, won't be back before deadline. Going with

++ Sally

again. Don't do anything stupid while I'm gone, okay?

10-21-2012, 02:45 AM	#1
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Nog? Seriously? That makes so little sense it isn't even funny. What I would be very interested in knowing, though, is whether the remaining wolves know each other or not. I wonder if it would be mentioned in the narration or not. Probably not? The trouble is, I agree with Nerwen and Copper that the possible scenarios for why the wolves would have gone for Nog look problematic. I just can't see the two wolves sitting down together and deciding to kill Nog, of all people. Like Copper said, shouldn't they be gunning for the Seer? Then again, if they don't know each other, gunning for the Seer would I guess be a deal harder, especially gunning for the same Seer. That, though, still doesn't explain why they both separately wanted to kill Nog. Bleh. I don't know. About yesterDay's lynch - that was insane, guys. Let's not repeat it, please? I was sad to see Shasta go, as he was among the few I felt relatively good about. I'm going to have to vote very early toDay, probably some four to five hours before DL. On the bright side, though, I have stuff to do today but I should be able to pop in regularly until then. __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-21-2012, 03:56 AM	#2
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	So – two wolves in the following bunch (didn't realize we were this few until just now!) who do or do not know each other: Nerwen – As impossible to read as always. I'd love a reread of her, might actually do that if I have time. Sally – Still not comfortable with her for reasons stated yesterDay, looking forwards to seeing more. Boro – Scares me. He's playing too careful. It would make sense for a wolf not knowing his fellows, I guess – he was very careful, especially early on, not to say anything too definite about anyone. Also, there has to be something wrong with a game where Nog purposefully brings about a random lynch and Boro is aggressive only when it's absolutely necessary! Pom – Feeling slightly better about her than in the very beginning of the game, but not comfortable, either. Coppermirror – Still liking what I'm seeing. If she's a wolf (It's a she, right? Or a he?), she's fooling me big time. MCR – Not enough content to draw conclusions from. So off the top of my head, if I had to make a guess, I'd say Sally and Boro look the worst - but since at least one of two wolves is always someone I forget to even consider, I wouldn't be surprised if the other was, say, MCR, or Nerwen, for that matter. Or anyone. This was a useful statement. __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-21-2012, 09:47 AM	#7
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	All right. I need to dash now, won't be back before deadline. Going with ++ Sally again. Don't do anything stupid while I'm gone, okay? __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

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10-21-2012, 09:40 AM	#6
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Gah. I wrote a long post and Firefox went down and it's gone. The main points I think were the following: 1) Nerwen's list gave me second thoughts about Copper. The ones I was considering voting toDay were Boro and Sally. I was leaning towards voting Boro toDay, but given that I need to vote soon and wish to avoid a scenario like yesterDay's I might consider voting Sally again after all. At least I wouldn't feel alone! 2) On possible pairings: I'd say that if you find one, you should look into it (especially if there are signs of possible hints/communication from before the two knew each other), but I would also advise against spending a great deal of time on looking for pairs as they might not even exist yet. 3) On whether the wolves would support Nog's voting plan or not: I would say generally no. I had a very long theory on this that I don't have the energy to type again, but the main point is that the planned randomizing of votes would mean, to a wolf, an increased possibility of a fellow getting killed, and less of a possibility to steer the lynch away from themselves. But since the same holds more or less true also for non-wolves (the randomizing of the lynch leading to a higher probability of someone they think is on their side getting lynched, and less opportunities to steer the lynch to the direction they want), which is why we can't really start pointing fingers based solely on who disagreed with Nog's plan. Actually, now that I think on it, could the whole voting-plan thing be conneted to why Nog was killed? If the wolves don't know each other, I guess they consider their kill lists also in light of who is least probable to be a fellow; and if I'm right in assuming that Nog's voting plan would not have been beneficial for them, Nog would have seemed like an unlikely fellow. I'm not sure how much sense that makes, though, and there are a lot of ifs involved. Also, one could also make a case on how the randomized lynch makes it, in many ways, easier to hide in the voting (as opposed to the usual accusations of bandwagoning and throwaway votes and the like). Hmm. I've just contradicted myself, haven't I? Also, Nog's voting plan sounds like a World War Two strategy... __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."