Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Kitanna]

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

[Pitchwife]

Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

Night 2. I dreamt an innocent on Night 1.

I didn't plan to reveal, but since Nessa died a wolf, I wanted the village to get two in a row. I have a terrible record as seer and sacrificing myself seems like a good choice since I have a known wolf.

[Inziladun]

I was afraid of this.

I am the Seer.

My Night 1 dream was Kitanna. Hence, my "vague" suspicion. I was hoping to get her lynched.

Unfortunately, my dream last Night was Nerwen.

Why didn't they kill me last Night? I can't say. Maybe it's just an exceptionally bold pack confident of their one remaining member.

Oh well.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Why didn't they kill me last Night? I can't say. Maybe it's just an exceptionally bold pack confident of their one remaining member.

Actually, it would make sense. If you're Radagast and they'd killed you, we'd most likely have lynched Kit toDay anyway, whereas this way, they gain a chance of getting you lynched and using toNight's kill on someone else. If the third wolf hadn't come under any suspicion worth mentioning yet, it would be a viable strategy.

[Inziladun]

All I can say is that I tried to be vague enough in my suspicion of Kit that they wouldn't home in on me, and at the same time leave something to go on in case they did.

Also, I thought Nerwen might have been trying to raise Sally as an alternative lynch to Kit after Sally's vote for her. That's why I picked Nerwen last Night.

[Pitchwife]

Can't say I'm surprised. So who of you two is the fake?

[Kitanna]

If you chose Zil, you let a wolf walk free. You'll lynch me, I'll die the real seer and he'll live an extra day while a different innocent takes my place tonight. There's nothing I can say to convince you of my innocence over his fake reveal. I still have a dream and that person is alive unlike Zil's conveniently dead dream of Nerwen. I'm going to hold on to that information because I won't give it to a village that doesn't trust me.

You can all think for yourselves and decide who to believe. But remember you'll waste the day and that's exactly what Zil wants.

[Coppermirror]

(Augh, I'm glued to this thread. Such drama.)

Inzil looked quite suspicious after yesterDay, in my opinion, which is why I put him at the top of my suspicion list. It would be reasonable for a Seer-Kitanna to dream of him (especially since he voted for her), and sensible for her to come out today and tell us we've got an Inzil-wolf. It would also make sense for Inzil to come out as a fake seer and to claim that he knew Kitanna was a wolf from the start.

However...it's still possible that things are the other way around. And Kitanna is refusing to give the name of the known innocent for some reason. It's only natural that the village would doubt which is real and which is fake. Kitanna, why won't you give the innocent's name to the village unless we trust you? I don't understand that at the moment.

Inzil, you're saying that you were trying from the start to get Kitanna lynched. If that's so, wasn't your talk about vague suspicion a suicidal move? Why did you talk about vague suspicion of her, even though you say you're surprised that they didn't kill you during the night?

[satansaloser2005]

Why do you people pull these pranks while I'm busy? Ugh. So rude.


I'm the seer. I dreamt everyone. You're all guilty. Let's move on.

(Not really. I'll read through the thread again when I get home and see who I believe. It's too early in the game for this silliness....)

[Pitchwife]

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh. Right. I should point out that if Kit were the real seer, she'd tell us her dream now so we at least gain something from all this. Then again, I'm pretty sure she's not the real seer, so, you know, never mind. I'm going to have some dinner now.


EDIT: Oh, you dirty little....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better.

Right, babe, you've done your part. Now just follow Sally's lead and all will be fine.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Reading Pitch's #69, I'm pretty well following the logic until I get here -

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now if the latter is true and Kit is one of the wolves, that would mean there were two wolves in danger of being lynched yesterDay and no innocent bandwagon to fall back on; which would explain the lack of any concerted attempt to save Nessa. But in this case I'd have expected to find Zil dead toDay instead of Nerwen.

Why's that, Pitch?

Originally Posted by Sally

This is a horrible thing to say, but I think Nessa's vote actually makes me look bad and Pitch look better. After all, she said things against me and then went after someone random in the end, disregarding her earlier "suspicion" of me.

Of course it's also possible she just hoped to lynch a possibly gifted Pitch in his absence, which would also not surprise me; I didn't go after Eomer for fear of doing exactly that, so I could see a wolf capitalizing on the lack of Pitch and disregarding anything else in hopes of having one less gifted come the Morrow.

Nnn. Sally, dear song partner of mine, this post. I don't like it, my dear. Firstly, I've seen you play the self-deprecating wolf before. It was in that play, "The Two Werewolves of Verona", remember?

Secondly, you're basically running with the assumption that Nessa in particular and the wolves as a whole thought Pitch was gifted - in that case, why isn't he dead?

Originally Posted by Eomer

I am less inclined to drop my guard around Shasta, however.

Oh, dear. How ever am I supposed to come murder you in your bed at this rate.

Cop, I have a question for you -

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Why would she vote for a Pitchwolf?
At the time she probably thought he would be mod-fired. Then it could be as Pitchwife suggested, with her making a throwaway vote for a packmate in an attempt to look innocent.

In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?


....

Aaaaand Kit at #80 makes pretty much everything else moot.

And there's Inzil's counter-reveal at #87.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Maybe I misread this, but after his response to Nerwen I'd have thought he'd throw a vote in her direction. Still he looks slightly more innocent because (and someone let me know if I screw up the order) but he was the first to vote Nessa. It's weird he didn't give a reason. Did he maybe think the voting would turn against me to her at any time and he was working to distance himself? Or was he just voting for her cause of his own time constraints and her vote for Pitch was suspicious enough to vote for.

That post wasn't against the light of my life, that was me mentioning I was thinking Nessa was jumping on something Eomer said as opposed to Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I mistrust him in general, though, so it's rather difficult to be objective.

So hurtful.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, so, we've got Kitanna versus Inzil for today. I'm going to go back and look at Day 1 - although, interestingly, a Kitwolf would know all the innocents in the village, plus, this is a prime opportunity to mess with the village's mind should she be lynched (she tells us Person A is a dreamt innocent, dies a wolf. Was she trying to protect Person A (her packmate)? Was she trying to get them lynched via WIFOM? etc.)

It's weird to me that a Kitwolf wouldn't just go ahead and say someone was innocent. Whereas a frustrated innocent Kit might just be contrary because she's not being believed.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Secondly, you're basically running with the assumption that Nessa in particular and the wolves as a whole thought Pitch was gifted - in that case, why isn't he dead?

My harmonious darling, just because Nessa thought that doesn't mean her partners agreed with her. I should think that would be obvious. I never implied that the rest of the pack agreed with her, but it's interesting that you jumped to that conclusion. Are we simply out of tune, or are you playing a darker piece than we agreed upon?

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Cop, I have a question for you -


In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?

I thought Pitchwife had said that and then added that it's not true because he's not a wolf. However, on second glance I was mixing up something Pitchwife said with something Inziladun said:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Nessa's vote looks inexplicable.
I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch, thinking no one else would even consider following her, but that doesn't seem all that likely.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

I'm going to go over Kitanna's analysis of me, and then I'll do an analysis of Kitanna vs Inziladun to try to work out who to believe.

[satansaloser2005]

All quiet on the Werewolf front, it seems. Well, mostly anyway. I'm off to bed, so I'll hopefully see most of you toMorrow.

[Inziladun]

Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.

I'll do what I can, Dun. I hope you sleep well.

[Coppermirror]

Okay, I have some questions now. My question for Kitanna about why she got angry with the village so early still stands, but I've got some more. If anyone who can answer them happens to be around, please respond, because answers to these will help me a lot.

Inzil, toDay before Kitanna came forward as the Seer, you seemed to downplay your suspicion of her. Why did you do that, and why didn't you come forward as the Seer toDay yourself beforehand?

Everyone else...If you know, can you tell me whether or not Kitanna's sudden frustrated reaction towards the village is consistent with what you know of her? I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

As things stand, the votes are

Kitanna (3), Inzil (1)

Kitanna for Inzil
Inzil for Kitanna
Pitchwife for Kitanna
Sally for Kitanna

Galadriel says "So pretty much Zil has my vote".
Eomer has yet to vote.
Shasta has yet to vote.
I have yet to vote.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Would it not be likely that, were Kitanna a wolf, they would have killed obvious-Seer Inzil last night? I'm inclined to believe Kitanna at this stage. But it doesn't really matter because they'll both be dead by tomorrow. We need to find the third wolf.

For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

[Coppermirror]

I don't necessarily believe all of the theories I've written below. But here:

If Inziladun is the wolf and Kitanna the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- It was sensible for Kit to come forward immediately.
- Zil had no choice but to come out as a fake Seer.
- It was overly convenient that Zil claimed to dream of Nerwen. He may have thought he was sure to go down, and didn't want to reveal any more innocents.
- He remained calm while Kit lost her temper, and gave away her advantage. A wolf would have a better chance of keeping calm.

Both Kitanna and Inziladun have given lists of those they find suspicious. If the Seer, Kitanna must have hidden the innocent in the list.

I think that if Kitanna is the Seer, she's withholding the known innocent's name because that person will without a doubt be taken in the night if she does. She seems to have had a bad run of Seer-ship in the past. Maybe she was sure she would be lynched and this is why she will not name the innocent.

If Kitanna is the wolf and Inziladun the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- Kitanna wanted to draw out the Seer, as Pitchwife suggested.
- OR she already thought that Inzil was the Seer, and thought she could get him lynched without using up a Night kill. (Risky...)
- The wolves were in extreme danger toDay from the Seer. A good strategy would be to throw suspicion on the probable innocents, and eliminate the Seer. (But then again, Zil was sure to look like the Seer. It's very risky to go after him toDay rather than last Night.)
- Either way, Zil had no choice but to come forward as the Seer.
- Kit's sudden anger is a calculated attempt to make herself look innocent.
- She's not giving away the name of a "known innocent" (or fake innocent...) because she doesn't want to hand us information. (? I don't think that makes sense. Well, perhaps it's simply a confusion tactic.)
- She did this now because she needs to distract us from catching the third wolf.

I'm troubled because whether or not Inzil is Seer or Wolf, it made some sense for him to be hedging his bets on the first day with what he said at first was a plan to use me as bait but later said that it was all aimed at catching a dreamed-of Kitanna-wolf. Whatever happened he could claim either option.

Both of them have gone through their suspicions. That's what I think a Seer would do. They are both casting suspicion on people.

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

++Inzil

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Might as well do this now.

++ INZILADUN

[Coppermirror]

Current votes: Kitanna (3), Inziladun (3)

In order of placement:

Kitanna for Inziladun
Inziladunfor Kitanna
Pitchwife for Kitanna
Sally for Kitanna
Coppermirror for Inziladun
Eomer for Inziladun

Galadriel and Shasta are the only ones yet to vote.

I've thought about it some more, and I'm now reasonably happy with my vote for Inziladun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which means I'll be casting a deciding(ish) vote.

However, it's an easy one at this stage of the game.

++Inzil

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.

[Kitanna]

I went to bed angry and woke up feeling better.

Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.

[Coppermirror]

Phew. I'm glad we voted for Inzil, then. (Unless Kitanna is a very mean wolf, there was no reason for her to come back at this point just to give us a name, when it looks nearly a sure thing that Inzil will be lynched. Unless G55 doesn't show or has changed her mind.) It's good to know that we can trust Sally. I wasn't sure what to think of her. Thanks for coming back to tell us that, Kitanna.

[Coppermirror]

Oh, my post above is wrong. I'm sure you all noticed, but anyway, since the count is Kitanna (3) and Inzil (4), if G55 doesn't turn up, Inzil will still be lynched. The only way he won't be is if G55 votes for Kitanna.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here too, waiting to see what the result is. I'm fairly confident it will be as expected.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh. Right. There's no ranger in this game. Forget I said anything then. D'oh. I clearly need to pay more attention. Anyway, moving on.

So....lycanthropy....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful.

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful.

Or, you know, from Kit's post.

Can it be true though? Could my psychic flaming wolf boy be....well, a psychic flaming wolf boy? My partner in song, tell me it's not true!

Actually, toDay is going to be rather horrid for me; I'll have but a couple of hours this evening to really read through things, and I doubt I'll be able to be on my laptop at all. I'll make a list this afternoon and try to post it before I head off to my evening plans. Let us get the last wolf toDay so that I may be alive to claim the victory with you. For Kit!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two.

He didn't have to. In case it isn't clear, I finished reading Day One's proceedings thinking that he was probably the Seer who had dreamed a Kitwolf (as may have been intented by his "ill-defined feeling of unease" and voting her on such vague grounds); only if that was true, the wolves would have spotted him and killed him instead of Nerwen (Shasta, I hope this answers your question in #112). When Kit revealed and he counter-revealed, I thought this could be an alternative wolf plan to get rid of him. Obviously not.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent.

That is of course nice to hear, but are you sure you aren't trying the same tactic you just ascribed to Zil?

[Coppermirror]

Kitannagast, your sacrifice was noble! But now we need to get a new cranky hermit for Isenbridge.

Come to think of it, we need a new baker, midwife, fisherman...And we need to advertise for a new horse trader, too. Nerwen, maysherestinpeace, was...perhaps not the most honest of them all. The horses are in such bad condition that I bet that's why the werewolves haven't tried to eat them.

Let's just not tell potential new bakers what happened to the last one.

We're doing extremely well. I honestly never expected us to get past Day 2.

Anyway...

Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

So naturally I'll be looking at the three I consider most suspicious. Day 1 and Day 2 before Kitanna's revelation should be the most useful, because after that point, Inzil and the other wolf knew Inzil was done for. That said, Inzil was already under suspicion at the start of Day 2, so they should have been very cautious then...Anyway, for Pitchwife, there's no choice but to look at Day 2. At present I don't have any particular idea of who is the most suspicious of those three. I'm not totally ruling out Galadriel55, but I think it's very unlikely that she's a wolf.

I have to sleep now, so I'll be back later.

[Galadriel55]

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.

But that's not what copper said. She was stating the possibilities of a Pitch-modfire or no Pitch-modfire. Not a lynch. And she said that it does not make a difference in the short-term, since no one can stop the wolves at night, and for the villagers it wouldn't matter if they lost during the Day r the following Night. But she said that it'd the worst-case scenario and that it would indeed matter in the long-term.

And I think you're being too harsh with us ordinary villagers. It's a big decision, after all. Let us digest all the information and turn it over in our heads a couple times.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point.

But the village has a victory to lose without that name - not immediately, but eventually?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?

More like a moment of objectiveness - or reverse psychology. (See above)


Incidentally, can someone please remind me the policy for tied votes?

---

Now after giving my two cents on the previous comments i can adress the Seer issue.

I am more inclined to believe Kit in this. My reasons:

1. She could have been lynched toDay, but it wasn't such a life-or-death situation that she had to save her hide with a false reveal. She wasn't yelling "lynch Zil instead" on the way to the gallows. She kind of said it out of the blue.

2. She revealed first.

3. What Shasta said about naming the ordo.

4. Zil as a fake Seer would of course name her as a wolf, and it's just too convenient to name Nerwen. Not impossible, but just sooo convenient to name an opponent and a dead person.

5. Since Zil is 50% chance a wolf and I suspect Pitch as the last wolf, it looks too much like the two of them are pushing a Kitwaggon together.


So pretty much Zil has my vote, unless something happens overnight that makes the world (or at least my mind) turn over.

If Kit is lynched regardless and turns out innocent, Zil would be the next one to go and I will be looking really hard at Pitch. However, if by some miracle she turns out to be wolf, Zil will likely not survive the Night and Pitch gets off the hook.


Edit: xed with a bunch

[Galadriel55]

To elaborate on my #2 reason (or say what I left unsaid in the previous post): since Zil is second, he's in a self-defence position. He'd do so regardless of alignment. But since Kit revealed first, she's not directly and this moment defending herself, but rather just putting the facts out there.


On a different note, upon rereading his posts Pitch might not look as bad as he seemed to me earlier. There are many what-ifs and holes of other kinds in the picture I had in mind earlier. That's not to say he's off the hook completely by a far shot, but perhaps not so suspicious as to make the siren turn on. Kind of like the orange category rather than the red.