ARDA CUP Football 2012

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

Predictions - Round 2

Well, that was probably the worst week (in the prediction department) I've ever had. It goes to show this year's Cup will be the most difficult ever to predict. Not an excuse, just a statement of fact. To only go 7/16, and even do worse then TENT! wow, our standards and methods are much better. In the long run, that will win out.

This round, for TTN's own curiousity, we will report the results of what our "computer" (ACS2012 Edition) says after plugging in all the numbers. Followed by our expert's pick and analysis. For posterity purposes, my prediction will be the one I stand behind/the one that counts.

The essential weakness of the computer's predictions is it's designed to predict the results of 2 teams playing 10 matches against eachother. However, in the tournament, it comes down to a single match between Team A and Team B. TTN is just interested to see if all the stats they compile is worthwhile in accurately predicting results, and now we can get some true empirical data, by publishing both the computer's picks and the expert's.

GROUP A

1. The Downer (#32) vs Tol In Gaurhoth (#24)

ACS2012: 2 goal win for Tol-in-Gaurhoth

Boro's pick: Agrees with the computer on this one, a convincing win for TIG. TIG has more goals and conceded less, and all lazy sloppiness should have been left behind after the first game. A 3-1 win for the Werewolf Isles.

2. Angband (#9) vs Shire-Bree United (#23)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Angband

Boro's Pick: The numbers say in a 10 game series, Angband would win 6, Shire Bree 3, and 1 game a draw. So, it's a more competitive match then at first glance. Bombadil has wrecked havoc against Morgoth's teams before, but we'll again side with the computer's pick. Shire-Bree's defense nearly lost it for them against TIG, and now it will lose it against Angband. Angband wins 3-2.

GROUP B

1. Arnor (#27) vs Inter Beleriand (#28)

ACS2012: Draw.

Boro's pick: Turgon won't be as inspired against Arnor as he was saving 7/9 against Gondolin. While Arnor plays everyone straight up. No matter who the opponent is, they will play the same and give the same effort. Arnor wins 2-1.

2. Eriador (#4) vs Gondolin (#22)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Eriador

Boro's pick: Sometimes winning by only 1 goal is nerve wracking and a tightly contested match. This however, will be the most comfortable looking single goal win possible. Eriador is just top glass professionals who know how to win close games. 2-1 Eriador.

GROUP C

1. Erebor (#6) vs Wilderland (#2)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Wilderland

Boro's pick: Wilderland won Erebor in the friendlies, and just came off a convincing 3-1 win against Anduin. However, Erebor has clearly upped their effort since the 1st round friendly. The computer says a Wilderland win, I say 2-2 Draw.

2. Anduin (#16) vs Dwarves United (#31)

ACS2012: 2 goal win for Anduin

Boro's pick: Part of the convincing win thrown out by the ACS2012 is likely from Anduin's strong friendlies. Anduin is not as good as we originally believed, by Dwarves United are even worse then we thought possible. Anduin wins 2-1.

GROUP D

1. Tirion (#10) vs Real Valinor (#7)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Something is really concerning about Real Valinor getting thumped by FC. Although, the recipe for going goalless in the first match would be to face Tirion next. Then again, Tirion can also score a plethora of goals. Tough one to call, so we'll go with the computer here. 3-3 Draw.

2. Armenelos (#3) vs FC Valinor (#1)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for FC Valinor

Boro's pick: Armenolos showed why no one should view them as slouches in this group of death. With that said, FC Valinor has just been playing at a level beyond everyone else up to this point and until they show otherwise, we're going to stick with FC Valinor wins 2-1

GROUP E

1. The Sea (#15) vs Valimar (#11)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Everything about these two points to a 0-0 draw. The defenses are just that much better than the offenses (conceding 2-goals to Hithlum is not up to Ulmo's standard, but still nothing to be embarrassed about). Ulmo can shut down Valimar's complacent offense, and The Sea is a little more pro-active in the attack. The Sea wins 1-0.

2. Hithlum (#19) vs The Havens (#21)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Perhaps the biggest offensive explosion of the group friendlies in this one. Hithlum's defense won't stop The Havens, but Turin and co will cause even more chaos against The Havens. Hithlum wins 4-3.

GROUP F

1. Imladris (#25) vs Misty Mts (#17)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Misty Mountains

Boro's pick: This is an interesting match, with a lot riding on it for both teams. Imladris can't afford to lose, and Misty Mountains really needs the win since they close out the group stage against the best, Rohan. Unfortunately for the Mountain fortress...Draw 1-1.

2. Isengard (#18) vs Rohan (#5)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Rohan

Boro's pick: Isengard might pull off the shock and snatch away a draw (a win is extremely unlikely). Really what Isengard needs to do to be in decent position is at least get 1 goal, but even that is easier said then done. Rohan wins 2-0.

GROUP G

1. Angfauglith (#14) vs Doriath (#13)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Nargothrond's offense appears unstoppable, so I wouldn't think there's something wrong with Angfauglith surrendering 2-goals. Doriath won't nearly be that aggressive, but can still likely get 1. Draw 1-1.

2. AC Beleriand (#8) vs Nargothrond (#12)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: AC Beleriand has had some very...uninspiring results, but even so they still haven't been beaten. Nargothrond's playing much better, but the defense will be under a lot more pressure then it was against Angfauglith (and it still gave up 2 goals). So. AC Beleriand wins 3-2.

GROUP H

1. Barad-Dur (#29) vs Gondor (#20)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Gondor

Boro's pick: Everything now and before has been pointing towards a Gondorian win...but there is such a thing as "stats do lie." Purely based on gut-feeling, that Sauron really couldn't care less about friendlies and was saving everything for the real tournament. Barad-dur wins 2-1

2. Minas Tirith (#26) vs Mordor (#30)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Minas Tirith

Boro's pick: Minas Tirith appears to primarily want to counterattack, and they are definitely quite good at it. But is Mordor's formationally sound Nazgul a team that you can counter attack on? Barad-dur can definitely be stretched because of their aggression, I'm not so sure the same would work against Mordor. Draw 1-1.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Anfauglith vs Doriath


[Projected formation. Doriath in silver and blue; Anfauglith in black and brown.]

Formation:

As usual Anfauglith would try to pack the midfield with their 4-5-1. But despite the advantage in numbers they wouldn’t be able to dominate possession against an excellent passing team like Doriath, so they’d have to do what they did successfully against Nargothrond—disrupt passing lanes and never give Daeron the time to decide the right pass.

After some adjustments, Doriath’s 4-2-3-1 has proven successful in containing AC Beleriand’s attacking depth. Wingers Beleg and Lúthien have especially proven effective in neutralising fullbacks Fingolfin and Ecthelion. They would have double duty again, preventing the Balrogs from pressing forward as well as providing attacking width to open space for Mablung and Nellas. And since Doriath would likely dominate possession, Melian would have time to press forward and provide the extra player needed to punch through Anfauglith’s defence.

Tactics:

Thuringwethil has proven herself to be the complete lone forward—strong, fast, and aerially dominant. Most of her shots in the game against Nargothrond came when she was the only brown shirt in the penalty area, yet she managed to confound single-handedly Nargothrond’s back four, scoring a brace in the process. She’d likely have a tougher time breaking Doriath’s defence if Melian decides to guard her personally, as she did against AC Beleriand’s Fëanor, but Melian would also be needed to help her outnumbered midfielders maintain possession. In any case Anfauglith has no need to change their counter-attacking long ball strategy that has proven effective against Nargothrond’s attacking game.

As was the case in their tie with AC Beleriand, Melian’s adjustments would be the key to this game. Should she remain in full-time defence, or should she bomb downfield and overload Anfauglith’s right flank, opening the gates to Ungoliant’s goal? Whatever she does, she should expect Anfauglith to adjust as well, and quickly—Gorgol and Balrog #4’s double marking of Nargothrond’s Gwindor successfully took the winger out of play after his excellent opening spell.

AC Beleriand vs Nargothrond


[Projected formation. AC Beleriand in red and white; Nargothrond in green and yellow.]

Formation:

AC Beleriand’s 4-4-2 diamond has proven effective in choking Doriath’s possession game, reducing the forest realm squad to playing a counter-attacking strategy (which, however, they executed well). Their problem was lack of attacking width after Beleg and Lúthien successfully pinned Fingolfin and Ecthelion to the back line. As a result, when Doriath had adjusted to Beren’s forays from midfield, their attacks were reduced to Fëanor solo runs and increasingly inaccurate Eöl passes behind the defence. Fingolfin would be taken out of the offence again, since Nargothrond winger Gwindor would most likely be a handful for him, but Ecthelion can exploit Finrod’s tendency to drift inwards to push forward, giving a different look to AC Beleriand’s attack.

Normally, a 4-3-3 playing against a 4-4-2 diamond, despite having a disadvantage in midfield, would have advantage in the flanks, since a full back in the 4-3-3 would not have to guard a winger (all of the midfielders in a 4-4-2 diamond play in the centre) and could therefore push forward with impunity, but as mentioned in ArdaCup.com Stats Report #5, Nargothrond's defenders have no instinct for attack—in fact, they are hardly sufficient for their main task, having struggled to contain Anfauglith’s lone striker Thuringwethil.

Tactics:

AC Beleriand would be wise stick to its attacking strategy, especially after seeing the dismal performance of the Nargothrond back four against the Anfauglith forward Thuringwethil. If the Nargothrond midfield sits deeper to help their defence then their attackers would be starved of the ball (unless Finrod links the midfielders and the forwards, but that would simply result in another problem: giving Ecthelion freedom to move forward). Nargothrond could play the same long-ball strategy Anfauglith used against them, and that Doriath used to some effect against AC Beleriand, but they have never used such a strategy before in the friendlies, even in their game against FC Valinor. While Glaurung would be suitable for such a strategy (being able to outpace and/or outmuscle his possible markers Imlach and Rochallor), using a play outside of the regular playbook might be disastrous if they could not execute it properly. The onus lies heavily on Finrod's shoulders—what could he do to offset his disadvantage in the defence and midfield?

[Nogrod]

The AKM has met with an unforeseen problems when the luxury yacht the staff was cruising to celebrate the beginning of the Arda Cup 2012 collapsed and Ossë, never a fan of the AKM, decided to drown the whole bunch. With Uinen’s resourcefulness the whole editorial staff has been rescued but all the editors and journalists have been under strict supervision of the Balar Island’s hospital ever since and thus cut out from the world outside.

So as the only person present at the HQ of the AKM (who had a flu and couldn’t join the cruise) I feel it my responsibility to publish a prediction for round two of the group-phase. All the stats and advanced tables & expert memos the regular journalists had are in the bottom of the sea, I understand. But I will do my best to serve our readers.

My apologies if the predictions are not that good, but I’m doing my best with the limited powers I have been given by birth and sources.


~*~


Group A

The Downer vs. Tol In Gaurhoth

If T-I-G wishes to have any say in this tournament they have to beat the Downer – and to beat them good. With a draw against the Shire-Bree they need every advantage in the scoring differences, and Shire-Bree can boast with scorers like Bombadill, Strider and Khamul…

There is no question about the winner then. It will be the T-I-G. But do they have the guts and stamina to score as high scores as possible maintaining a defence tough enough not to let the always haphazard Downers score in return? The AKM believes the werewolves and wights will rise to the occasion and leave the Shire-Bree a mountain to climb in their last game against The Downer.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 4-1.


Angband vs. Shire-Bree United

No one doubted Angband’s defences but some questioned their attacking capabilities after the friendlies. But after Ancalagon scored two goals and Ulfast scoring from the bottom of the midfield against The Downer the doubters have become quieter. Team Angband can score and their defence is a tough one with mighty Melkor leading the team from behind.

Shire-Bree’s chances lay in the unstoppable Bombadil who’s probably the only creature in the whole Arda who doesn’t fear Morgoth even a bit. Strider and the Barrow-Wight might also be able to stand the pressure of evil, but how will players like Butterbur, Ferny or the Nazguls take the challenge of Melkor, Ancalagon, Tevildo, a great Balrog and Carcaroth…

That remains to be seen.

The AKM predicts: Angband wins 3-1 (or 3-2).


Group B

Arnor vs. Inter Beleriand

Arnor lost it’s first game against the group favourites Eriador and that’s kind of fine, but now they need to start winning if they wish to continue the tournament after the group-phase. But Inter Beleriand showed in it’s first competitive game that it is a lot tougher team many agencies were willing to grant after the friendlies.

Inter Beleriand has an intimdating forwards duo in Fingon and Maedhros and Turgon can keep the enemy at bay for a long time, so mainly it’s a question whether Arnor’s not that dazzling forwards can penetrate the Gondolin defences dangerously enough. The AKM predicts they will not.

The AKM predicts: Inter Beleriand wins 2-1 (or 1-0).


Eriador vs. Gondolin

Eriador is finally challenged by a team that can score (on a good day). Gothmog and Maeglin are more or less the first stable quality forwards Eriador has to meet. It is also worth noticing, that gondolin’s defences are probab ly not that bad the stats from the friendlies suggest as Gondolin has met some real shooting-powerhouses while Eriador has basically met none (unless Shire-Bree is counted in).

The result will be decided by two factors: how well Elrond plays frustrating the Gondolin tide, and how well Glorfindel and the Witch King rise to the occasion when they have to score in turn.

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (or 2-2).


Group C

Erebor vs. Wilderland

Wilderland showed some real talent and shape in their first game against the (overrated) Anduin team 3-1, but Erebor showed some class as well beating the Dwarves with their more or less tough defences no less comfortably 2-0. So the two favourites of the group meet in the second round.

Now Wilderland beat Erebor in the friendlies 2-1 and one would be easily persuaded to think they would win again. But after beating the “team to beat” in the first round it just might be the Wilderlanders feel a bit too comfortable and are not giving their 100% to the game. So it might end up as a draw as well.

But the AKM trusts the working ethics and morale of team Wilderland is of the first claas and Oromë will lead his team into a victory once again. Now someone might ask if Smaug (0+0) or Thranduil (0+0) could just wake up and make a difference. To that we say: compare them to Scatha (1+1) and Galadriel (1+1) and stop dreaming.

The AKM predicts: Wilderland wins 2-1 again (or 2-0).


Anduin vs. Dwarves United

Only a pathological optimist (if s/he likes dwarves) could still hope for the Dwarves united to qualify from the group-phase. Legolas just can’t score to win games alone. The team is just full of unfootball-like characters and that is a sad truth for the dwarven race.

So Anduin will bring the game home and their target will be 2-0 like Erebor did. They will not be happy with anything less than that in case the qualifying will be up to the goal differences in the end. But the AKM thinks they are not having quality enough to better that. In the end Celebrimbor and Aulë are still quality defenders more than able to keep Grimbeorn, Boromir and Haldir at bay for the most time.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0.


Group D

Tirion vs. Real Valinor

This is the death match! The team losing this game will be definitively out from the further stages of competition and it is quite clear neither team will be happy with a draw either. Some real fighting for the points to be anticipated then…

Real Valinor has lost two games thus far (friendlies & round 1) but both of them were against FC Valinor which seems more or less unstoppable at the moment. Other than those two games their stats and performance seem just overwhelmingly great – and looking at the attack with Arien, Miriel and Nerdanel will make any opposite team sweat already before a game has started.

But. And the but is this. Finwë, Eönwë and Aredhel have formed the deadliest forward trio in the friendlies and unlike the Real Valinor forwards they were in flames in the first group game as well all getting their names on the scoreboard. So how confidentially both forwards go into the game this time? Will Finarfin stand to the test, will Tulkas stand firm? This is the death match.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 3-2.


Armenelos vs. FC Valinor

If the other game in group D is the death match, this will be the hegemony game. Armenelos showed they have not lost their stamina and can take on with anyone. And it sure will be no walk in the park for FC Valinor even if they are the favourites to the game.

Even if some might think FC Valinor is satisfied with their win over Real, the charactersitics of their key-players like Huan and Curufin are not those of playing it half-hearted. So we will see a full fight here as well with neither side giving in an inch.

But there is also an interesting added factor here: the team that wins the game secures their place in the qualifiers. So one might think both teams to fight it to the end just for that. Armenelos will do that as they meet Real in their last game, but will FC Valinor be happy with a draw if that comes to their grip in the last minutes? Maybe?

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 2-1 (or draw 2-2).


Group E

The Sea vs. Valimar

If Manwë’s team Valimar was not able to beat the hosts the Havens when it mattered, it is a case in point to ask whether they are able to beat Ulmo’s the Sea? It is very hard to score against Valimar, everyone knows that, but do they have the killer-instinct to go and win games when they’d need to?

With two draws from the first round this group is totally open and it looks like The Sea has it’s chance of making it in this game. The Númenorian kings, especially Tar minastir, are performing well indeed and Ulmo & his minions form a tough downstairs it took 75 minutes for the attacking-powerhouse of Hithlum to break. So how will the less hungry forwards of Valimar fare in there?

The AKM predicts: The Sea wins 1-0.


Hithlum vs. The Havens

Now here Hithlum will do some real damage and enhance their overall standing considerably. The Havens are playing at their home-arena but the Hithlum team is now both angry and hungry for goals.

The Havens may not be as low as the 21st. team in this competition (as the AKM’s power rankings suggested after the friendlies) but Hithlum will just run them down as Eärendil, Tuor and Aegnor – as good as they are – will not match the attacking stamina of Nienor, Húrin, Túrin and Hador. Hithlum has been scored against frequently in the friendlies but so has the Havens. So the quality of the attack will be the major decider. And there Hithlum will just be that much sharper.

The reclaimer is this, though. The Havens is one of those teams the stats have underestimated the most and it is possible that with their home support they can give Hithlum a real fight.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 4-2.


Group F

Imladris vs. Misty Mountains

This is one of those games where you have a team with solid defence and poor finishing against another with relatively nice scoring but leaking defences. Rohan made themselves the clear favourites of group F by winning Imladris in the first round while Misty Mountains had to contend themselves with a draw with Isengard – something they surely were not foreseeing. So both teams need a win now.

Durin’s Bane and Narvi have shown themselves to be quality-scorers, but Elros is one of the best goalies in this tournament. On the other end it looks like Elrond’s children are not yet ready to carry the resposibility of leading a team on their own, even if uncle Elros supports them from the goal.

But against the slow trolls the half-elven children should be at their best and the chief wolf will most probably be forced to fouls trying to catch them while Elros will be a tough enough opponent for Durin’s Bane and Narvi if the defences fall over.

The AKM predicts: Imladris wins 1-0.


Isengard vs. Rohan

The neighbours clash once again with some divided loyalties!
Isengard may not be as bad a team the stat-based charts on the friendlies might suggest, but it seems to be a fact Saruman is not a Wizard when it comes to football. Playing it even with the Misty Mountains on the other hand suggests there is some untapped power there this time. It will not be enough to challenge the great teams of the tournament, but it might be enough to tease the other teams in group F.

Then again Rohan can more or less secure their place in the qualifiers by winning Isengard, and Rohan’s defences are in many ways one of the best in the tournament. So even if Saruman has Treebeard, Caradhras, and Quickbeam in his squad, there are just too many “beaters of Saruman” in team Rohan for Saruman to win against the chances.

The one word of caution though is this: Isengard won Minas tirith 2-1 in a tournament-style game while Rohan had to concede a draw 1-1. Rohan did not play seriously for a second goal after their first one until Minas Tirith equalised late in the game, but anyway…

The AKM predicts: Rohan wins 1-0.


Group G

Anfaughlith vs. Doriath

Anfaughlith is seen as one of the major defencive powerhouses of this tournament but everyone doubted their attacking capabilities. Then suddenly, meeting the offencive craze of Nargothrond they allowed two goals in one game (they only allowed one in all the total four friendlies), but Thuringwethil also woke up and scored twice (she made their only goal in the four friendlies). The question is, will anyone else aid her in scoring?

With team Doriath it has all being about Beleg and Lúthien Tinúviel scoring and Daeron giving them support while Melian’s defence has not been the all-closing belt one would have wished for and even if Dior is a decent goalie, he’s not a cup-winning one. But will Beleg and Lúthien be able to break in behind Anfaughlith defences? Lúthien has experience on that but will it be enough when she faces the primordial Ungoliant as the last lock this time?

The two teams met on the last round of friendlies and defended strongly ending up 0-0 with neither team wishing to show their offencive cards.
With first games ending in 2-2 draws both teams are now hungry for a win so there is a great fight to be anticipated. It smells like a draw…

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (or either team wins 2-1)


AC Beleriand vs. Nargothrond

AC Beleriand is a tough team to beat, but so is Nargothrond (their only loss in the friendlies came to FC Valinor). With both first games drawn the stakes are getting higher. The winner of the game will have a lot safer feeling which kind of rises the chance of a draw here.

Being forced to a draw with Doriath AC Beleriand has clearly fallen in the rankings of most betting agencies, but there are still many who believe in the magic of Fëanor, and with mates like Eöl, Beren and Fingolfin it’s easy to see where that trust comes from. But will it be enough? AC Beleriand played fine in the friendlies and ended up in the top ten of every agency, mosty in the top five. But are they that good when games matter? The game against Doriath speaks differently – even if many admit Doriath’s capabilities may have been underestimated thus far.

But how about Nargothrond then? They are one of the top-scoring teams of the tournament this year with Gwindor and Glaurung leading the way – and Finrod Felagund tempts to rise to the occasion when needed (like we saw in the first game against Anfaughlith).

The AKM predicts: draw 2-2 (or if Fëanor gets wild: 3-2 to AC Bel.).


Group H

Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor

With Sauron aboard one should never underestimate the team he plays in. And the same holds true this time, even if they had to contend themselves with a draw against Minas Tirith on the first round. But whatever the case they just let the other team to make too many shots against their goal the Mumakîl to save.

Gondor on the other hand took a firm hold of the other place in the qualifiers beating Mordor 2-1 in the first game and being the favourites to win the group anyway they stand the favourites also for this game as with a win they would secure their place in the sweet sixteen.

But if Barad-Dûr has any wish to qualify, they will make a game of this forcing Gondor to really fight for the win. And Sauron is no quitter, so Gondor be warned!

The AKM predicts: Barad-Dûr wins 2-1.


Minas Tirith vs. Mordor

Minas Tirith and Mordor draw 1-1 in the first friendly. After that Minas Tirith’s stats look way better than Mordor’s – and them playing a draw with Barad-Dûr looks also better than Mordor losing their game to Gondor. So there is a favourite to win this game and that is Minas Tirith, especially now when it looks like both Boromir and Faramir have shown their qualities when it matters.

Now Shelob has also shown some signs of awakening scoring her second goal in the first game where it actually mattered. Will she be ab le to step up her pace and are the Nazgûls and orcs able to feed her well enough remains to be seen. But thus far it looks like Minas Tirith are the favourites. The added twist comes from the fact that if Mordor loses they will be removed from the tournament and they will do everything to avoid that, so Minas Tirithcan’t afford any loose or reckless playing this time.

The AKM predicts: Minas Tirith wins 2-1 (or draw 1-1).

[the phantom]

Group B @ Weathertop

There were many opinions to be found in the various establishments near to Weathertop. The locals were quite positive, as the host team Eriador had the points lead and nearby Arnor had played them tough- not to mention Inter Beleriand and Gondolin had drawn, meaning that despite the loss they were but one point out of second place.

The Elves of Gondolin were quite optimistic as well, pointing out that the only reason they didn't defeat Inter Beleriand was due to some amazing saves by their own Turgon. "I think we're both going to advance," was the common refrain. "We got our toughest game out of the way and now both Beleriand-based squads are going to show these first-agers how to play.

The fans of Maedhros, Fingon, and Inter Bel were also confident about their chances, but perhaps a little less cocky. True, they had been out-shot by Gondolin in their opening match, but they didn't feel they'd been dominated in any way. "That's the way we play," said Fingon yesterday. "We'll let the opposition take what we feel we can withstand, and we capitalize with efficiency when we get our chances."

And indeed that looked to be the recipe in their early game against Arnor. The men of the North controlled most of the possession during the opening half, but Inter Beleriand managed to get on the scoreboard first thanks to a well-timed interception and quick pass the other way from Haleth, which found Maedhros too alone and close to goal for the star forward to make a mistake.

The Arnor crowd was still in it though, as they had witnessed their team's solid play up until that point and believed they would gain a deserved goal sooner or later. And they were right- the equalizer came just minutes before the first half ended. Isildur forced his way past two defenders and gunned a cross along the end line, which deflected off Brandir and was reacted to beautifully by Argeleb who sent the bounce into the back of the net.

Both teams started the second with some uncharacteristic mistakes, perhaps showing the nerves in a game they both wanted badly. After some sloppy passing Inter made their worst mistake at 53 minutes, when Balrog #5 didn't look carefully before sending the ball back and across to Haldad, and a dashing Araphor cut in front of him and fired a shot at the far corner after one touch. Fortunately for Inter the ball skimmed over the top of the crossbar, as Turgon was a bit unprepared and couldn't have stopped the ball had it been on target.

Just seconds later Arnor made a poor play of their own, only this one proved fatal. After a pass-back, keeper Arvedui sent the ball out to his defense, but unfortunately both Araval and Valandur thought the ball was for them. At the last second both of the converging men pulled up short to avoid a collision, and the ball passed right between them to a charging Hunthor, who wasted no time and sent it rolling to the right side of the box for the onrushing Fingon. Fingon kept his defender pinned on the outside and drove it near-post with his left boot, and the stadium suddenly fell silent, except for the group of Noldor in the eastern stands of course.

Inter Bel played it calm and confidently after that, running clock whenever possible and putting defense first. On two separate occasions their decision not to score more looked like it might doom them, but Turgon was equal to the challenge and stopped the flurry when his defenders got beat. Most impressive was his swat-away in the final minute off a header by Isildur.

When the final whistle sounded the Arnorians filed from the arena quite slowly, numbed by what they'd seen. They hadn't played poorly- in fact, they weren't entirely certain they hadn't played slightly better overall. But the fact was they were sitting with no points after the first two rounds.

Arnor 1-2 Inter Beleriand
on target 7-4
tot shots 18-10
GOALS:
*26, 0-1 Maedhros (Haleth)
*39, 1-1 Argeleb (Isildur)
*54, 1-2 Fingon (Hunthor)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Arnor- Isildur
*InterBel- Balrog #5, Forweg

The Gondolin supporters filed their way into the arena with much shouting and singing in the early evening hours. Quite a few of them had been present for the morning game to see Turgon and his cousins play, and that match had put them in a very good mood, as it supported their theory that the Beleriand teams would be the ones to advance.

The Eriador crowd arrived a bit later. The Arnorian supporters still looked downcast from the early result, but the Elves of Rivendell and the orcs and men of Angmar looked ready to party. The orcs particularly could be seen trading barbs with the Gondolin fans-
"Our Witch King is going to shred you guys!"
"Ha, you wish! We've got Maeglin and Gothmog. If it's a scoring contest, we win!"
"Witch King has your own Glorfindel up front with him!"
"Psh, our front two are still better!"
"Even if that was true, we've got Elrond in goal! End of story!"

When the match kicked off it was a great contest indeed! Both teams flashed some high-quality skill, and the opposition made some athletic plays to fend the attackers off. At the 15 minute mark the Gondolin fans rose out of their seats as Maeglin made a crafty run and found Gothmog's head, but the shouts died on their lips as Elrond guessed right and batted it away.

Instead it was Eriador drawing first blood- and it hurt for Gondolin to see their own son Glorfindel scamper in and slot it past Rog for the lead. Thirteen minutes later Gothmog was frustrated again by Elrond, as his rocket of a drive was tipped off course by the diving Elf-lord. But Gothmog's groan of frustration quickly morphed into a bellow of delight as the deflected ball bounced off the post and the "keen-boot" Maeglin deftly volleyed it out of the air and into the near side, leaving Elrond no time to react. It was tied!

Fans of both squads continued to talk smack during halftime, but it was more in good spirits than it had been in pregame, as the crowd could not help but be put in a good mood by the fine play they were witnessing, and grudging respect was growing even with the most hostile supporters.

The second half began and the crowd was treated to more of the same. Glorfindel sped past nearly the entire defense, but Aranwe came sliding in with a perfect tackle to prevent the one-on-one with the keeper. Then Duilin sent a long cross from nearly midfield that curved in perfectly to Gothmog and looked to have Gondolin ahead, but Malbeth saw it coming just in time and with a mighty leap touched it just enough to send it too high for the Balrog Lord to control.

After nearly 20 minutes of exquisite back-and-forth, the tie was finally broken. Arassuil sent the corner in for Eriador- Witch King was held up and Glorfindel was bracketed, but somehow the defense lost track of the tall Gil-galad, and he struck true with his noble brow. Eriador was up!

As the minute mark passed into the seventies Gondolin began to get more aggressive, but Eriador played soundly and kept the duo of stars contained. At minute 76 it looked like Gondolin had finally won the battle when a corner ricocheted about awkwardly and fell right to Egalmoth, but his point-blank effort was spectacularly smothered by Elrond, and the lead held.

At last in minute 80 the scoreboard was lit again, but not by the aggressors. In their committal to the attack Gondolin had tired themselves out and had also left themselves open to Eriador's counter, and a rather tired pass near midfield was intercepted by a sneaky Arassuil, who had been baiting the opening. He got there first and immediately touched it forward and left. First there was the barely-onside Glorfindel, and with Witch King sprinting down the center they were free for a 2-on-1 with Rog. Rog guessed shot left, Glorfindel went pass right, and just like that Eriador had a commanding two-goal lead!

The Witch King supporters in particular could be heard shouting jubilantly, as he had backed up all their pre-game talk by putting his name on the scoring list. The Gondolin supporters hung their heads. They couldn't be angry- they were getting beat fair and square on the field, and the thought just made them sick. A few optimistic souls still hoped for a comeback, but the wiser ones knew that Gil-galad, Asfaloth, and the men of Arnor weren't going to make a mistake at the back, and even if they did- Elrond would be there to clean it up.

And indeed, that is how the contest ended- at 3 to 1. Eriador was already guaranteed a playoff spot, while Gondolin trudged from the stadium but one point out of last place.

Eriador 3-1 Gondolin
on target 6-5
tot shots 14-12
GOALS:
*22, 1-0 Glorfindel (Arassuil)
*35, 1-1 Maeglin (Gothmog)
*64, 2-1 Gil-galad (Arassuil)
*80, 3-1 Witch King (Glorfindel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Eriador- Gil-galad, Asfaloth
*Gondolin- Pengolodh, Elemmakil, Egalmoth

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group G at Nargothrond

Notice to the Public:
On Lótessë the 31st, Year 2012 of the Seventh Age, Boromir the 88th of TTN said:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

To only go 7/16, and even do worse then TENT!

We wish to inform our viewing public that neither Tar-Eldar Network Television nor ArdaCup.com is in any way affiliated with the so-called Felagundion’s sports blog. As TENT takes prides in its professionalism, and ArdaCup.com boasts of its statistical methods in predicting matches, the biased and unscientific pieces of sportswriting that the Felagundion comes out with cannot in any way be construed to be a reflection of the virtues we value. In any case, ArdaCup.com doesn’t release match predictions before the group stage is over.

And now, we return to our regular programming:
_______________

Almost half the seats in the High Faroth Arena were occupied by Orcs and Trolls cheering for Ungoliant and the Balrogs of Anfauglith. The outnumbered Doriath supporters tried their best to make themselves heard, but the war drums and the chanting was too much for them to overcome. A few thousand Nargothrond supporters also came to watch the match. Although they wanted to cheer for Doriath, they also hoped for draw, since it would make Nargothrond’s path to advancement much easier.

If that was what they wanted, then the first half was exactly what the doctor ordered. The two squads started conservatively. Melian of Doriath played central defender, marking Thuringwethil personally. With their queen not helping in the midfield, Daeron, Nellas and Galadhon found themselves pressed by Anfauglith’s midfield five. They found no space to work the ball forward, and so for most of the half the ball was contested in the middle portion of the pitch. Lúthien and Beleg tried to play on the flanks, but the Balrogs were more than up to the challenge of containing them. Their few crosses, hurriedly sent, were smothered by Ungoliant or cleared by Borlach before Mablung could even get to them. They two teams remained scoreless when the half-time whistle was blown.

In the second half Doriath found a renewed energy for attack, catalysed by Melian’s shift from centre to left back, which gave her space to move the ball towards the Anfauglith side of the pitch. Her interplay with Lúthien gave Doriath their best chance of the game; five minutes into the half, Tinúviel cut inside, luring Balrog #3 to follow her, before passing the ball to a touchline-hugging Melian. The Maia found space to send a pinpoint cross, but Mablung’s finishing left much to be desired, striking the crossbar with the net at his mercy.

Doriath would rue this wasted chance when, in the sixty-second minute, Galdor, exploiting the space left behind by Melian, received a pass from Thuringwethil and powered the ball into an empty net.

After conceding Doriath became more desperate for a goal, which only fuelled Anfauglith’s counterattacking strategy. Only the efforts of Melian, who blamed herself for the goal, kept Thuringwethil from adding to their lead. However, without their captain’s help in the attack, Doriath were unable to breach Ungoliant’s goal, and Anfauglith soon walked away victorious, one step closer to advancing.

Anfauglith 1-0 Doriath
GOALS:
62, 1-0 Galdor (Thuringwethil)

Total Shots
13-8
Shots On Target
5-3

YELLOW CARDS:
2-1
Anfauglith: Borlach, Gorgol
Doriath: Galadhon

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[Author's note: The text in triple brackets [[[text]]] are to be struck through. Unfortunately the strikethrough tag doesn't work in the Downs, nor do strikethrough text generators. So sorry. ++N(L)]

Group G at Nargothrond (Continued)

Notice to the Public:
Tar-Eldar Network Television and ArdaCup.com Stats Report are run by pretentious prats. I’ve succeeded in cutting off their feed just this once, so I can give you the coverage free from their corporate-sponsored blathering and give you the real game.

And now, we return to our [[[ir]]]regular programming:
_______________

A long time ago, just after Bëor began his pioneering research in [[[in]]]effective goalkeeping , the hosts of the Valar landed in Beleriand and tore the land asunder in their battle against the forces of Morgoth. Morgoth himself cowered helplessly in the deepest pits of Angband and was soon dragged out by Eönwë, Herald of Manwë and typical tough guy, who strode across unstable footing in his Chucks, hauling the One Who Arises in Might by his collar. This was the image conjured in my mind by the dismantling of Nargothrond by AC Beleriand.

This has been done to the hidden realm before, of course. But Glaurung is innocent this time; he’s even wearing the home team’s yellow shirt. No, this time the damage was inflicted mostly by ‘Mr Own Goal’ Fëanor and Beren ‘Luckiest Guy in Arda’, who decided that fourteen second-half minutes would be enough to turn a tightly-contested match into a slaughter reminiscent of Elenna going against a tsunami. And like the ‘Akallabêth’, it was quick, it was generally painless, and it changed the world forever—or at least Nargothrond’s chances of getting past the group stage.

The match began deceptively, as if Sauron, in his guise as Annatar, was in the pitch with Finrod and his lads, offering them the chance to make it to the round of sixteen and beyond. And like the enlightened Noldor of Eregion, they believed it. They attacked with a gusto usually reserved by the Fëanorians for their fellow Elves. Gwindor ‘Charge!’ son of Guilin made a by-your-leave cross past Fingolfin that missed Glaurung’s tail by, I dunno, a few yards. Then there was a perfect Finrod through ball for Imlach ‘In Which Chapter was This Guy Mentioned?’, who had no trouble converting the Wise One’s pass into a clearance. Scintillating.

But all their efforts were not in vain. In the seventh minute, after receiving a lofted pass inside the box from Orodreth ‘Firm Believer in Infrastructure’ son of Finarfin or Angrod (which one is it, really?!), Glaurung ‘The Faithful’ held the ball up against the challenge of Imlach ‘Who Was This Dude Again?’ and ‘I’m a Horse Playing Football’ Rochallor before cutting it back for Finrod ‘Worst Ruler in Arda’ Felagund, who put the ball past the outstretched hand of a helpless Marach (because that’s the perfect adjective to describe most of the Edain during the First Age—helpless.)

One would expect that with the early lead, AC Beleriand would simply fold and hand the group over to Nargothrond. However, much like Maedhros’s triumph over Morgoth in the Fifth Battle of Beleriand, that was not the case. It took a while, but after more than half an hour of kicking the ball up and down the pitch, Fëanor found Beren to the left of the box with enough space to fit the Éothéod in, and Beren… Well, after getting a Silmaril and Lúthien, what more can you deny the man?

The two squads took a tied game into the break, and while Nargothrond seemed to have let their offensive prowess take a sabbatical in the pristine shores of the Falas, AC Beleriand must have asked theirs to call their cousins in Hithlum over, because AC Beleriand took to the pitch with a redoubled fury that reminded no one of Farmer Maggot after Frodo stole some mushrooms again. And like Farmer Maggot it would take them a while (fourteen minutes, to be exact) to find out whom to vent their fury against, but when they did…

Against a lesser goalkeeper, they might have scored one or two. But they were up against Bëor, a record-holding goalkeeper, none of whose records, unfortunately, are related to goalkeeping. Fortunately, some of them are really cool, like AR/DA’s ‘Let It Be Rock.’ Unfortunately, even I think that that pun was totally lame. So moving on…

Fëanor took a long ball from Rochallor and waved to the Nargothrond defenders sipping their daiquiris and lounging in their poolside chairs on his way to an appointment with the netting. Five minutes after Beren, played in by ‘Bungee Jumper’ Eöl, rifled the ball past the Great Wall of Nargothrond (so-called because Bëor is, after all, old and hopelessly useless as a means of defence.) The whole AC Beleriand squad was so pumped up, even Ulrad ‘Where Did Fëanor Find These People?’ and Ecthelion ‘Pointy Hat’ joined the party four minutes later, with the Ultimate Radical heading in a spiked-helmet cross to triple their lead. Then in the sixty-seventh minute, referee Atanalcar[[[, signed by Fëanor from Manwë’s Pelóri squad for $10 million]]] gave a free kick to AC Beleriand from a position so perilous I’m surprised no one has yet placed an ‘Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here’ sign above it. Bregolas took the shot, and Bëor ‘Butterfinger Not Butterbur’ spilled the save into the path of, oh, look, Fëanor. Can I wake up now?

After the fourteen minutes of horror, Nargothrond recovered from their daze (in the defenders’s cases, it was the daiquiri’s fault) and tried to fight back. However, they failed to create any goalscoring opportunities, nor did they have a chance of beating the finest defenders in Beleriand arrayed before Marach. This was particularly the case in the eighty-fourth minute, as Fingolfin did not allow Gwindor to cross; thus his cross, which never happened, was not tailed over the crossbar by Glaurung. And soon the game, like the unfortunate Man struck by Glaurung’s not-tailer, was done.

This must be the curse of the yellow shirts. The last time Nargothrond players took to the pitch wearing their home colours, they lost to Tol-in-Gaurhoth, and before that, to Túna. Or maybe this time it could be the curse of ‘paying too much for offence and having no budget left for defence’. In any case, it’s back to the drawing board for the most reviled prince of the Noldor; his squad now has to defeat the team from Melian’s belt if they still want a chance to go where no other Nargothrond XI had gone before. Oh, and they also have to hope that the Anfauglith-AC Beleriand game doesn’t end in a draw. Yes. Good luck with that. Viva Nargothrondia.

AC Beleriand 5-1 Nargothrond
GOALS:
7, 0-1 Finrod (Glaurung)
38, 1-1 Beren (Fëanor)
59, 2-1 Fëanor (Rochallor)
64, 3-1 Beren (Eöl)
68, 4-1 Ulrad (Ecthelion)
73, 5-1 Fëanor (Bregolas)

Total Shots
22-12
Shots On Target
10-4

YELLOW CARDS:
1-2
AC Bel: Ulrad
Nargothrond: Mîm, Gwindor

[Nogrod]

Group D at Armenelos, round 2

With the home team’s great win over Tirion on the first round it felt like an overwhelming load of tension had been lifted from the Númenorian fans’ shoulders. And the next day the visitors to the great city of Armenelos experienced such hospitability only the greatest of the men could offer. The day between the games was a day of rejoicing and anticipation – and the sun shone from clear skies to underline the general mood.

But as the second game-day broke one could feel some tensions rising behind the smiling faces and general courtesy. It was felt strongest with the fans of Real Valinor and Tirion though as both teams had lost their first game and so the afternoon-game would be a “game of life and death” to both of them: the loser of the match would have packed two losses from two games and would be out of the tournament whereas the winner would more or less have their fate in their own hands come the third round.

In the pre-game press conference the representatives of the teams still managed to be quite relaxed, but some tensions could be found as well. Read the clip from the Armenelos Stadium lounge to learn more…

The Armenelos Times: Mr. Curufin, sir, some people say you are growing overconfident and that gives chances to your opponents. Are you familiar with the proverb that hybris is always followed by nemesis?

Curufin: I’m not too much into proverbs. We call our way determination…

The Armenelos Times: But you must be familiar with the concept, for exactly here I think your renowned family and we Númenoreans share some common ground.

Curufin: You do the best with what is given to you, right?

Nerdanel: As your mother I could say a thing or two about doing the best with what you are given… and were your grandma here I bet she would tell you the same thing. *flashes a sarcastic smile*

Curufin: Oh mom, please. *frowns and smiles*

The Númenorian: Please lady Nerdanel, how do you feel your chances running for the second position against the home team?

Nerdanel: They won Tirion so we have to do the same today and then we’ll see in a match-up on round three which one goes forwards. Unlike most things in life it seems as simple as that.

Túna Watcher: What do you Mahtan think of what your daughter speaks here? Is Tirion going to be walked over like that today?

Mahtan: Of course not. I think she has spent too much time with the Fëanorian side of her family, even if I still love her dearly. But we’ll prevail in the end as we know the trade and have taught it to the others – have you ever seen an apprentice to beat the master or the child to outshine the parent?

Curufin: With all due reverence, aren’t you now messing the strength of blood with football dear Granpa? And many might disagree with your principle even when it comes to smithery…

Ar Pharazôn: Excuse me. We know for a fact that generations evolve into higher forms unless there are some catastrophes that cut the races or nations down and suck the life-blood from their veins. You Tirion guys lost your game to us, so how does that count in your scheme of teachers or older masters always being better than their apprentices? Your team’s legacy may be great but we represent the heyday of the laterborn – and we will go far in this tournament!
*cheers from the local media representatives*

Túna Watcher: So you see Mahtan’s Real Valinor beat his daughter’s Tirion then, and feel good about it?

Ar Pharazôn: Oh, you’re playing it unfair now my good elf… You all firstborn are so last season.
*more laughter*


~*~

So it was the game of life and death then when the players of Real Valinor and Tirion jogged to the pitch with the full stadium roaring in applause. It was clear the homeside fans were taking sides cheering loudly to the Tirion players. There probably wasn’t any special love towards the Tiron team (or hatred against the Real Valinor players), but looking at the table the Númenorians would love to see Tirion beat Real Valimar as that might mean they could qualify with a draw against Real Valinor – in case they didn’t win FC Valinor later the day, into which only a few actually believed even if many liked to say they did.

If one was looking for quality football the game was real value for the money. The game was fast, the individual skills of some of the players were just magical (Nerdanel’s soft touch, Miriel’s intelligence, Eönwë’s commanding stature…), and the team play produced some heart-stopping combos that would wet the eyes of any aesthetically astute person.

But competition-wise it started to look pretty clear from the early minutes on. The game flowed more or less evenly from one end to the other and both teams produced some quality chances while both keepers performed some major saves, but everyone could see that the attacks by Real Valinor were always that magical inch sharper, that little bit more dangerous-looking – and their visits on the Tirion’s defence seemed to become all the more frequent, longer, and more concentrated the older the game turned.

The goal was hanging in the air, and it did land on the pitch at 26th minute when Real Valinor’s deadly trio just tore the Tirion defence to pieces. Arien had an easy job to move the ball into the empty net from beside the post of the goal after Miriel had taken Finarfin with her – being in turn released alone against him by a perfect pass by Nerdanel – and made a dazzling back-heel pass leaving Finarfin totally helpless.

Oftentimes the dynamics of the game change considerably after the first goal, but this time it went on exactly it had gone before the goal, and thus Real Valinor pressed even more, slowly taking the whole game into their hands. And before the half-time they did actually score again. Now it was Nessa’s flashing speed that left the Tiron defenders look as mobile like statues of marble. With Miriel’s perfectly timed pass she broke free from them and scored beautifully first running out of reach of Finarfin who tried to come forwards to challenge her.

But those who thought at the half-time that the game was over and done with couldn’t have been more wrong.

Real Valinor players are an experienced and smart bunch and they know that securing the lead with just falling back and trying to defend the goal leads to ever more opportunities to the opposing team, building of ever more pressure, and to a high risk of a thriller come-back by the other team. But leading with two goals it is hard not to fall back just an inch when you have everything to lose with a bit riskier game.

Tirion on the other hand was with their back against the wall: lose now and basically be kicked out of the tournament. So they came into the second half with a fury. Eönwë had grown to his full stature creating awe everywhere he went and Finwë looked as noble and high as the great father and the first High King of Noldor should look like – and his grand-daughter Aredhel looked just plain dangerous: tall, strong and beautiful.

With a newly found determination they started rolling their attacks one after another against Real Valinor’s defences and for the first 15 minutes it seemed there was only one team in the field. Real started to find their form slowly and managed some offencive play at times after that, but it was clear where the dangerous situations were. Aredhel headed the ball to the post, Eönwë’s freekick boomed just inches over the crossbar, Thorondor beaked the ball straight to the upper corner of the goal but Tulkas managed to tip it a way at the last possible moment…

And Tirion got their well-deserved goal at the 75th minute when Finwë slided to the ball from a rebound at close range after Aredhel’s top shot.

So the last 15 minutes were a thriller with Tiron chasing for an equalizer and Real Valinor willing to keep their goal safe. But here the greatness of team Real came to the fore. They started attacking more decidedly forcing Tirion into the defence every other time and keeping them on their toes not to allow Real to score a 3-1 decider… And that decided the game.

Tirion was out of the tournament and would only play for their honour in their last match against FC Valinor. But looking at their squad there surely is a lot of honour to defend, so FC Valinor will get nothing from them for free. Real Valinor in turn should now have everything in their own hands: win Armenelos in the last game and qualify. Other options would be known only after the evening game…

Real Valinor 2-1 Tirion
on target 7-5
tot shots 16-13
GOALS:
*26, 1-0 Arien (Miriel)
*41, 2-0 Nessa (Miriel)
*75, 2-1 Finwe (Aredhel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Real- Caranthir, Arien
*Tirion- Anaire


After the thriller it was the home team’s turn to run into the arena – and to face the number one favourites for the whole tournament by any decent footballing agency there are. The sun was already setting and the hundreds of torches planted around the pitch were being lit to light the field and the exits from the stands – on top of the stadium there was a ring of greater fires creating a general light over the audience and even to the pitch. It’s hard to describe the mood with anything else but saying it was just awesome: the dark bluish sky with a tint of bright colors from the setting sun, the bit flickering but strong light from the torches and fires, the tension; the hopes and fears of the homeside fans, the majesty of the players of both teams, the anticipation of a great game, nervousness, joy, the amounts of wine spent that day already.

It is these moments, among others, that make football such a larger than life phenomenon.

The game itself was an awesome torture to the homeside crowds and a sovereign show of just how strong the FC Valinor team is at the moment. Armenelos played beautiful football: the big, strong and graceful kings moved the ball with astonishing ease and confidence but the defences they faced were just even bigger, stronger and more graceful! Nahar, Oromë’s great white horse seemed to be everywhere and never late dominating the Nümenorian kings also with it’s pure size and stamina. And where Nahar was absent, Penlod, the tallest of the Noldorin was shutting the way with Maglor, the son of Fëanor with some real staying-power and integrity. And Lórien also fell down repeatedly to help the defences with his commanding presence. So even if the Númenorians fought bravely their alleys of attack were just shut off before them forcing them oftentimes to shoot form a far (that actually explains the bigger than normal difference between the overall shots and those on target).

Now team Armenelos has a tough defence as well, but facing a forwards squad made up from brothers Curufin and Celegorm, one of the hottest and toughest duos this year (and last), and Yavanna’s and Idril’s grace, well that spells trouble – and will do it to any defence this year. Actually one thing that makes team FC Valinor such a strong one this year seems to be their great balance of skills and different characteristics: there’s brutal force and stamina, there is speed and elegance, there’s creativity and determination, there is poetry and heroism, spiritual and physical prowess, you name it.

After half an hour of play FC Valinor started to deliver. Celegorm just pushed himself trough the defencive line and hammered the ball in behind Tar Atanamir from the edge of the box at 31st minute. And only eight minutes later Tar Atanamir had to pick the ball again from inside the net when Lórien had risen highest of the crowd after a cornerkick and headed the ball unstoppably to the low corner. The visitors were leading 2-0 at the half-time and had been impressive indeed in everything they did.

Which doesn’t mean Armenelos didn’t or couldn’t fight back. And especially early on the second half Armenelos was even closer to score than FC Valinor who had lessened the pressure a little being two goals ahead and not willing to use their energy 110% anymore. But there was still Huan to beat and both shots on target on the second half were picked up by the hound. The second by Ar Pharazôn was actually quite a spectacular one when Huan “nosed” the ball off from the upper-left corner of the goal just at the last moment making such a leap to it the spectators were gasping their breath when most were already rising up to celebrate a goal.

Towards the end of the game the tensions loosened little by little when it started to become evident Armenelos was not going to score, at least not going to score twice to even the game. So the ending of the game was a kind of an anti-climax when for the last five minutes both teams seemed happy to just kick the ball around. But it was understandable as well when FC Valinor had nothing to gain for adding a goal more and Armenelos was keen to save their energies to their last match against Real Valinor which would decide the other qualifying team from group D.

Armenelos 0-2 FC Valinor
on target 3-6
tot shots 12-14
GOALS:
*31, 0-1 Celegorm (Curufin)
*39, 0-2 Irmo (Celegorm)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Armen- Ar Zimrathan, Tar Ancalimon
*FCVal- Irmo


Two games:

FC Valinor 6pts. 5-0
Armenelos 3pts. 3-4
Real Valinor 3pts. 2-4
Tirion 0pts. 3-5


Last matches:

FC Valinor vs. Tirion
FC Valinor has secured the first place in the group and a place on the next rounds. Tirion has no chance of qualifying and will play their last game purely for honour.

Armenelos vs. Real Valinor
Armenelos and Real Valinor will fight it out for the second qualifying slot. In case of a draw Armenelos will qualify because of their better goal-difference.

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

Round 3 - Predictions

Well it appears we can throw in all the advanced stats and metrics we want and it still won't do much good in trying to predict matches this year. Still we will plod on and there is one final round left to restore sanity back in the world of predictions.

Group A

1. Angband vs Tol In Gaurhoth

ACS2012: 1-goal win for Angband

Boro's pick: TIG did not do themselves any favors with a disappointing draw against The Downer. Although, we expect the phantom to have a highlight game against Morgoth's side. The wolves always perform under pressure, but will the wights fold? Draw 2-2

2. Shire-Bree United vs The Downer

ACS2012: 2-goal win for Shire-Bree

Boro's pick: For some reason we are cautious to pick Shire-Bree in this one. It will depend on how they handle a pressured situation, even though they are clearly the more talented team. The Downer will be The Downer, and that should have Shire-Bree concerned. Shire-Bree gets it done though, win 3-2.

Group B

1. Arnor vs Gondolin

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: The Arnorians are honourable enough to not cave in completely, but they don't have the skill to stop a Gondolin team that must win to advance. Gondolin wins 2-1

2. Inter Beleriand vs Eriador

ACS2012: 1-goal win for Eriador

Boro's pick: Inter Beleriand has been quite impressive so far, but now they play the top team of the group. And we doubt Eriador will give a lackluster effort, even though they are already through to the knockout stage. Eriador wins 2-1

Group C

1. Anduin vs Erebor

ACS2012: 2-goal win for Erebor

Boro's pick: Erebor has already defeated group rivals Wilderland, they have been playing very well...and Smaug hasn't even shown up on the stat sheet much yet. Erebor wins 2-0.

2. Dwarves United vs Wilderland

ACS2012: 2-goal win for Wilderland

Boro's pick: The Dwarves should play a bit sharper than that 4-1 shelacking Wilderland gave them in the friendlies, but this is a terrible match up in the mid-field for Aule's team. Wilderland wins 3-1.

Group D

1. Tirion vs FC Valinor

ACS2012: 3-goal win for FC Valinor

Boro's pick: If anyone can score on FC Valinor it would be Tirion, since goals are their specialty. But giving up goals is also their speciality. FC Valinor wins 3-1

2. Armenelos vs Real Valinor

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: This will be the premier match of Round 3, and possible the premier match of the whole group stage. The winner advances, and in the event of a draw, we believe Armenolos advances due to goal differential. Armenolos in front of their home crowd, will get the edge, they win 3-2.

Group E

1. Hithlum vs Valimar

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Will anyone in this group actually win a game, and you know...seize control of it? Wait..what's that? No one? Draw 2-2.

2. The Havens vs The Sea

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Of anyone, we suppose The Sea could win a game in this group, but Ulmo's defense has really been disappointing thus far. Ah well, let's go for it anyway. The Sea wins 2-1.

Group F

1. Misty Mts vs Rohan

ACS2012: 2-goal win for Rohan

Boro's pick: Rohan appears to want to win all games 1-0 (they had the same strategy in the friendlies remember). Which is all fine, until they actually play a threatening attack, but as it stands for this group...Rohan wins 1-0.

2. Imladris vs Isengard

ACS2012: 1-goal win for Imladris

Boro's pick: All stats and reason point to a win for Imladris, but we've got no clue what side will show up for Imladris. The side that took it to Misty Mts winning 3-1, or the side that's been shut out several times? We'll go out on a limb and say Saruman has a few dubious wizard tricks left. Isengard wins 2-1.

Group G

1. AC Beleriand vs Angfauglith

ACS2012: 1-goal win for AC Beleriand

Boro's pick: Based on the 5-1 onslaught of Nargothrond, AC Beleriand should win this one fairly comfortably. I will stress should, because this was the same team that only drew with Doriath. AC Beleriand wins 2-0.

2. Doriath vs Nargothrond

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Finrod should be ashamed of his team this year and that's all we have to say about that. Draw 3-3.

Group H

1. Gondor vs Minas Tirith

ACS2012: 1-goal win for Gondor

Boro's pick: Motivations will severely come into question in this one...will Gondor tank the match just so Minas Tirith is also assured of advancing? Would they dare do it in the middle of Mordor? Minas Tirith wins 2-1.

2. Barad-Dur vs Mordor

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: After Gondor obviously throws their match against the White Tower, how will Mordor react? That has MEFA authorities worried the most. Sauron may even refuse to play the match, if they don't just cancel it due to outrage. In fact, with everything that's happened this year, that will be my prediction. Seriously. Match CANCELLED.

What a way to end the group stage of Arda Cup 2012.

[Boromir88]

Group A @ Michel Delving

Group A was still completely up for grabs. Angband had the upper hand but they still needed at least 1 point to assure their advance. And they were facing the dreaded Tol-in-Gaurhoth, who had not looked like their usual selves so far, but they always show up under these pressure situations. The bigger the stage, the more they thrive, but Angband is used to being in these games as well.

The match was set to start mid-day, but there was a heavy, dark overcast which blocked out the high sun and conditions were getting wet on the pitch. Many believed this was the work of Morgoth but some also noted TIG seems to be followed but an aura of bad weather, remembering the tornado and thunderstorm they played in a couple years ago.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth came out pressing more, for they were the team that desperately needed the 3 points with a win. Phantomwolf was really commanding the mid-field, overpowering the Men of Angband. Although they were not consistently threatening Carcharoth, because Angband's back line was led by Morgoth and his Balrogs. The defense-wights of TIG seemed a bit timid to come further up, with the wet pitch, they were nervous of hitting a slippery patch and Angband's ability to counter if Morgoth intercepted a pass.

Gradually Angband started taking firmer control as the half went on. Morgoth stepped up into the mid-field and that nullified phantomwolf's presense. Any TIG attack was stopped before it could begin and Angband was now seeing more possession. Ancalagon unleashed a couple wicked tail blasts on goal, to test TIG's keeper. Shastawolf was more than able to swat the attempts away, but Angband won a few corners. In the 37th minute, Morgoth crossed a corner into the box, Ancalagon rose above everyone else, to head it straight down and over the line.

Angband didn't let up on the pressure either, as they appeared to want to have an excellent close to the first half, and perhaps put this match away (and thus win the group) early. Nilpwolf was matched up against Ancalagon, and some thought it might have been better to put the lone wolf-defender on the cat. But Telvildo was agile enough to avoid the few wolf-players of TIG and still find openings. The feline, jumped, weaved, and then flicked a pass to Ancalagon who whipped the ball in with a trademark blast off its tail. It was center goal, but too high and hard for Shastawolf to react in time. The wolves and wights would head into the break, down 2-0 and desperately in need of a win.

The 2nd half was a classic example of letting up on just some of the effort and your performance plummets. Morgoth appeared to want to coast the rest of the match, as if it were a friendly. TIG however needed to win and they were not broken yet. If anything, they know how to stage comebacks in roaring fashion.

It still seemed to take TIG too long to finally break through Morgoth's defense and Angband's hand. NerWight didn't have much work to do with phantomwolf's precise pass, just redirect it's trajectory to the far post as Carcharoth was well off his line. Now with only a 1-goal lead Morgoth yet again stepped up in the mid-field to nullify TIG's advantage there. Only, unlike the 1st half, TIG was no longer timid.

They were going to throw caution to the wind and push everyone forward, if Angband got a goal on the counter, so be it. At least they would go down in a fury. As it turned out TIG's aggression paid off in the 84th minute as NogWolf pounded in LegateWight's shot off the post.

It was all level now, but TIG was not going to let up. They were not eliminated with a draw, but they could assure advancing with a win. Morgoth had no choice but to throw up the barricades and have his entire team practically defending on Carcharoth's lap. With only a few minutes of extra time left, TIG really started risking everything. They even pulled ShastaWolf out from goal just to have an extra player attacked. But in the final seconds, Morgoth cut off a pass and cleared it all the way back down TIG's end.

That was it. Angband is already qualified no matter what happens in the late match. TIG was currently sitting in 2nd, with 3 points. But if there was a winner between SB United and The Downer, they would be eliminated. So, they all had to wait, and hope for that one to end in a draw.

Angband 2-2 Tol In Gaurhoth
on target 8-7
tot shots 17-19
GOALS:
*37, 1-0 Ancalagon (Morgoth)
*44, 2-0 Ancalagon (Telvildo)
*66, 2-1 NerWight (PhantomWolf)
*84, 2-2 NogWolf (LegateWight)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Angband- Morgoth, Gelmir, Uldor
*TIG- SallyWight, GwathWight

After the first match had been played under an overcast, the clouds broke immediately. Michel Delving stadium was completely filled even an hour before the match was scheduled to start. With hobbits, wights, wolves, orcs, men, elves and others all in attendance. Shire-Bree was clearly the team the fans were fully rooting for. The Downer had very few supporters and the TIG fans were solely there to root for a very specific result. (Either a 0-0, or 1-1 draw would mean TIG advances. 2-2 draw would lead to a shoot out for 2nd place. A 3-3 draw, or a winner would clearly not be good).

Despite the entire stadium rocking, chanting, and drumming support the match began very slow. It was perhaps because Bombadil was not at all making his presense known. Normally he's either not on the pitch at all (and thus people notice he's not there) or he is and his skill can't be contained. Bombadil was actually on the field and playing, but he was completely neutralized.

In fact, that seemed to be captain Hookbill's strategy, to make Bombadil ineffective and force someone else from Shire-Bree to beat them. A smart plan, but neutralizing Bombadil was perceived as impossible by most others, as they could only wait and hope for the funny man to be distracted by lilies or something ridiculous. However, Hookbill placed Alien on Bombadil duties, and as it turns out Bombadil was very intrigued by Alien. Bombadil even began reading some of his poems, that is, until Alien produced a flame-thrower and set Bombadil's feathered cap on fire (Alien of course received a yellow).

Hookbill was quite pleased with his strategy, because with Bombadil being shut down, Shire-Bree was still getting more chances, but they weren't very good chances. They lacked the finishing touch and expertise of Bombadil. In the 35th minute, Shire-Bree received a gift of a chance though.

Khamul and Barrow-wight were causing the most havoc and, Khamul looked sure to score, but John Fillis stuck out his arm in what was a clear handball in the box. Fillis was carded and it was now a penalty kick, to be taken by Strider. In a cool display of skill, Strider struck and the ball slipped just inside the right post. The stadium erupted with cheers of STRIKER! STRIKER! STRIKER! Except the small section of Downer and TIG supporters.

The halftime whistle blew and the crowd was still partying and elated. Their team was winning, and it was time to get refills on all their pints before the 2nd began. However, SB-United had a cold awakening, realizing The Downer might be whacky and unpredictable, but they were not deflated and demoralized yet. Far from it, as The Downer began concentrating efforts on an equalizer.

They would get it in the 62nd minute, off a pass by Saucepan Man and finished by Hookbill. The TIG neutrals were suddenly livened again, because a 1-1 result means they would advance instead of the Shire team. SB-United grew slightly nervous for the first time in the match, even if there was a lot of time left, Bombadil was still completely ineffective while being marked by Alien. Who would have thought there could be a player who was more annoying than Bombadil? Could SB United win with their star-striker having no impact on it?

Their players were determined to win in front of their home crowd, on this final round of group matches, though. In the 79th minute, Gildor raced down the left flank and passed it back into the center to the Barrow-wight. The B-W made excellent contact and hit a rising thunderbolt, scraping the top crossbar and into the back of the net. One could not hear their own screams it was that loud in Michel Delving Stadium. TIG fans slumped at the goal, realizing what this meant to their fate, and were further annoyed when The Downer appeared to have no interest in even trying to equalize again.

A draw wouldn't do The Downer any good, so they simply stopped, as Hookbill told them that was it and to have fun. "Fun" on this day meaning watching Alien devise new ways to torment and make fun of Bombadil's outfit and poetry. Strider was protesting to the ref, but the ref had his hands tied...they weren't violently hurting anyone nor damaging property. Even with the anti-climatic end, that did not stop the crowd from singing and partying.

In fact, the rather boring end, seemed to only make anticipation of the victory party grow as the game was coming to an end. For when the ref blew the final whistle, the stadium exploded in jubilee. They did not remember the last time they could be this excited about a team from the Shire. Even if it only contained 1 hobbit and even though now, they already knew their first playoff opponent was going to be Gondor (since Gondor already qualified for 1st after Round 2). They would not think about that, however. They were going to celebrate thru the night and then book a route to Gondor in the morning.

Shire-Bree United 2-1 The Downer
on target 7-4
tot shots 16-13
GOALS:
*35, 1-0 Strider
*62, 1-1 Hookbill (Saucepan Man)
*79, 2-1 Barrow-Wight (Gildor)
YELLOW CARDS:
*SBUnt- Bandobras, Golfimbul
*Downer- Burnt Bert, Alien, Fillis

Standings (after 3 matches)
Angband, 5 pts (+2) Q
SB United, 5 pts (+1) q
Tol-in-Gaurhoth, 3 pts (0) e
The Downer, 1 pts (-3), e

[Boromir88]

Group H @ Minas Morgul

Minas Morgul's stadium was barely half-full for the 1st match of round 3. Gondor had already won the group, and the locals had no desire to see their rivals finish off the group, especially when they were to play the "other" Gondor team. Mordorians stayed underground and in local watering holes in preparation for the later match. Many were waiting for an excuse to riot, which had MEFA on high alert. Mordor fans were convinced since Gondor had nothing left to play for, they would throw the game to Minas Tirith. If Minas Tirith won then the Barad Dur-Mordor match would be irrelevant, since both would be then eliminated.

Minas Tirith began in an opening flurry looking to take control of the match, but Gondor defended admirably. The orcs watching in the pubs scoffing that Gondor was just doing enough to look as if they were making an effort to play and avoid charges for purposefully rigging matches. But on a quick counter finished by Anarion, Gondor grabbed a shock lead. It appeared the Minas Tirith fans were under the same impression as Mordor and assumed Gondor wouldn't play this game; not for real at least. Also, surprising, Anarion is having one of the best performances amongst mid-fielders this tournament, already with 3 goals and 2 assists.

Minas Tirith upped the pressure for the next 15 minutes and it paid off right before the halftime whistle. Faramir shot a precise snipe from the left-side, right outside the penalty box and it dipped below the crossbar. This of course gave the Mordor supporters much to grumble about throughout the break. "It's 1-1 now, but we see the plan clearly now. Put on a good show and effort in the 1st, but just watch, they will give the 2nd to their disgusting friends."

What Mordorians believed would happen didn't matter, because again Gondor surprisingly won the lead back within the first several minutes. In the 53rd a poor pass by Ostoher that Eldacar intercepted and quickly passed to the unmarked Falastur. And Falastur had no trouble rocketing a shot past Denethor II. Granted it the goal was due to a defensive mistake, but the fact that Gondor so quickly pounced on it to capitilize should put to any rest theories that they would tank the match.

Gondor though did not want to work themselves too hard, afterall they were guaranteed of 1st place already, so Minas Tirith had little problems possessing the ball after Gondor's 2nd goal. And if Gondor did win possession, they would simply try some classic time-wasting tactics before booting it back to Minas Tirith's end.

Minas Tirith still had a difficult time working the ball past Gondor's mid-fielders, but as the match was winding down Cirion and Ecthelion II stepped up from their defensive positions to aid the attack. Some thought they waited too long since Gondor was clearly not interested in expanding their lead at this point. In the 79th Earnil II blasted in a shot of his own, beating Hyarmendacil. It was all level again.

The final 10 minutes was quite an interesting battle, with Minas Tirith pressing for a win would guarantee advancing, but Gondor still defending admirably. Mordor spectators were all the ready to riot at the first sight of an "inconvenient mistake" that would happen in the final minutes, to give Minas Tirith the win. But it was not to be, for seemingly Hyarmendacil did not appreciate anyone questioning his honor, or his team's and he made some final key saves to preserve the draw.

As it stands Minas Tirith remains in 2nd with 3 points, but if one of the Mordor teams won in the 2nd match, that team would advance with Gondor. If it ends in a draw, Minas Tirith would advance.

Gondor 2-2 Minas Tirith
on target 7-8
tot shots 16-18
GOALS:
*29, 1-0 Anarion (Romendacil)
*44, 1-1 Faramir (Tarandor)
*53, 2-1 Falastur (Eldacar)
*79, 2-2 Earnil II (Mardil)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Gondor- Calimehtar
*MT- Faramir

The 90%+ orc crowd (with some Corsairs, Khandans, and other men sprinkled in) were quite rowdy before kick-off. The situation was pretty ideal for them, even though they would have obviously liked it if both of their teams could make the playoffs, at least one of them could go through...if one of them could win today. They couldn't imagine a scenario where this would end in a draw, the situation was set up perfectly, whichever Mordor team wins would knock Minas Tirith out of the playoffs. Many believed this would be Sauron's team, since he appeared to have the better squad, plus he was their ruler. It would seem very odd for Sauron to miss out on the playoffs. In the end, though, it didn't matter. The entire stadium could get behind both teams, hopefully watch a thrilling Mordor-styled match (of rough play and many goals), and continue supporting the winner for the playoffs.

The game started out very open with both teams playing fast and attacking football (the ref was also swallowing his whistle, just letting them make daring, hard challenges that may have been whistled foul if it were other teams). Barad-dur looked a little more haggardly in defense, and it cost them early in the match. Shelob was an intimidating presense, even Barad-dur's defenders seemed frightened the great spider would sting them and feast on them afterwards. So it was in the 6th minutes, when Nazgul #2 led Shelob to an open area, and the spider flicked it underneath the Mumak's large girth.

Barad-dur regathered themselves defensively, but the match's pace still was not slowing down. Both defenses were pressed and forced to play at a high-level, the difference in the first half being the Silent Watcher was doing a much better job tending the net than the Mumakil. As in the 40th minute, off the boot of the 4th Nazgul Mordor grabbed a 2-0 lead on a shot the Mumak did horrible on trying to save. It was not the team they had expected, but it didn't matter, after 45 minutes Mordor had a 2 goal lead and it looked like they would be the Mordor team going through.

To the crowds' immense delight more goals were to come, this was the football they liked watching! Goals and excitement! This time it was Sauron though putting Barad-dur on the scoreboard, in what truly was a wonderful display of striking skill. It was clear Sauron was the best player on the field, and he was not shy to show it.

But Mordor did not let up, as the game became even more then at any other point previously. 10 minutes after Sauron's goal, the team of Nazgul working in perfect sync put Mordor back up by 2 goals with 30 minutes remaining. And there was still yet another goal in the 73rd minute, headed in by Castamir after Sauron's free kick.

Goals galore in Mordor and as the match was coming to an end the entire stadium was rocking wildly, with Mordor sure to advance. Since after the wild pace, the match finally started slowing down in the final 10. However, another free kick in the 84th minute led to disaster.

As usual, Sauron took the kick and made a rather lazy effort that deflected sideways off the Nazgul wall and then ping-ponged off Herumor's foot...over goal line! Where was the Silent Watcher, it seemed to just be statued to its spot. And why would Barad-dur make that kick at that time, or even have people in the box where freakish ricochets can often happen? Nooooo! It was all over, both of their teams now eliminated, which soured what had been a wonderful display of Mordor-styled football.

Barad-Dur 3-3 Mordor
on target 8-7
tot shots 18-17
GOALS:
*6, 0-1 Shelob (Nazgul #2)
*40, 0-2 Nazgul #4 (Grishnakh)
*49, 1-2 Sauron (Angamaite)
*59, 1-3 Nazgul #4 (Nazgul #5)
*73, 2-3 Castamir (Sauron)
*84, 3-3 Herumor (Sauron)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDur- Gothmog II, Fellbeast #2
*Mordor- Fellbeast #1, Shagrat, Shelob

Standings (after 3 matches)
Gondor, 7pts (+2) Q
Minas Tirith, 3 pts (0) q
Barad-Dur, 2 pts (-1) e
Mordor, 2 pts (-1), e

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Right, the sportswriters are nowhere to be seen, so the editor was left with no choice but to let me, a statistician, write the report. So this won't be pretty, but considering how well we did in the last round of sixteen prediction, we're still worth reading.


A1 Angband vs H2 Minas Tirith

Minas Tirith has done well to limit the above-average offences of the teams in Group H to two goals per game, so it's a safe bet that, even with Ancalagon (leading scorer of the moment) and Tevildo (assists leader), Angband would score that much. However, Minas Tirith has been scoring against only lousy defences so far (except Gondor, which, however, is still a fair-to-middling defensive team). How well do you think would the Stewards fare against Morgoth, a Balrog, and Carcaroth? (They might score one, but that's the most I expect they'll get.)

Angband 2:0 Minas Tirith

B1 Eriador vs G2 Doriath

Elrond's no longer the ridiculous clean-sheet machine that he was last season, but he's allowed all teams against him (ranging from mediocre Arnor to fearsome Gondolin) only one goal. So expect Doriath's free-flowing offence to score that much. On the other end, Melian and company would be hard-pressed to stop two fleet-footed strikers who play well off each other complemented by midfield runs from Arveleg.

Eriador 2:1 Doriath

C1 Erebor vs F2 Imladris

Imladris had a tough time scoring in the group stage. Erebor conceded just one to Wilderland's First Age offence.

Erebor 1:0 Imladris

D1 FC Valinor vs E2 The Havens

FC Valinor conceded only to Tirion in a game that no longer counted. They bludgeoned Real Valinor, their putative rivals, as well as perennial Cup contender Armenelos. The Havens has a mediocre defence and a good offence. That won't be enough even to slow FC Valinor down.

FC Valinor 4:0 The Havens

E1 The Sea vs D2 Real Valinor

The Sea scored one against Valimar, and conceded just two to Hithlum. Real Valinor is about Hithlum's level in offence, and just a notch below Valimar in defence--they did concede three to FC Valinor, but only one each to Tirion and Armenelos. Fortunately for them, Tar-Minastir and Tar-Aldarion aren't Curufin and Celegorm.

The Sea 1:2 Real Valinor

F1 Rohan vs C2 Dwarves United

This is one of the better match-ups for the Eorlingas. They can play their slow-paced possession game, starve Dwarves United of the ball, and build up safely for their winner.

Rohan 1:0 Dwarves United

G1 AC Beleriand vs B2 Gondolin

Expect Gondolin to score even against AC Beleriand's defence. Expect AC Beleriand to score more against Gondolin's so-so defence.

AC Beleriand 4:2 Gondolin

H1 Gondor vs A2 Shire-Bree United

Shire-Bree United held Angband and Tol-in-Gaurhoth to two goals, and Gondor, with their offence, is expected to get as much. But SBU also got two past the same teams, who had better defensive personnel than Gondor has (although TiG's sudden dip in form is puzzling.) They'd probably need extra-time to do so, but expect the stronger attack of SBU to prevail.

Gondor 2:3 Shire-Bree United

[Boromir88]

@ Angband

Tens of thousands of Orcs and servants of Angband packed into the mighty caverns of Morgoth's iron stadium. Since the match was to be played underground, there was no natural light, but it was still bright enough do to the fires of Angband (although this also made it very hot underground). For those who remembered, Morgoth was obviously hoping to deliver to Angband a repeat of the 2009 first-round playoff match against Minas Tirith, where Angband easily dispatched the White City 3-0. Many pundits had been predicting the same, that Minas Tirith, while playing well, came out of a very weak group and would be no match to the deadly power and talent of Angband. Morgoth was trying to set up the same atmosphere and conditions in 2009, and in this way intimidate Minas Tirith off the pitch.

Very (very) few Minas Tirith fans braved the journey to Morgoth's Iron Hell, and those who did were definitely taunted and jeered at, but their courage was admirable and they never felt their lives were at risk. To go from Minas Morgul in one week only to then be sent to Angband, must be admired indeed. And, in truth, the people of Minas Tirith were quite different from their Rohirric allies. It is known the Rohirrim like their spacious, open fields to run their premier passing game. While the sturdier, grimmer, Minas Tirithians do not mind the tight and dark conditions so much. Although, the White City would be tested today like they have never been tested before.

The first half was an extremely defensive affair. The Orcs of Angband began as loud and raucous as ever before, but slowly as the half was drawing on became quieter and quieter. And when the stadium had turned dead silent, it soon became restless and anxious (probably not at all helped by how cramped everyone was). For they saw the grim determination of Minas Tirith to resist to the end. And with each passing second that the score remained 0-0, Minas Tirith was actually growing more confident and determined, not showing signs of wearing down, or breaking, at all.

The half quickly came, and there was really neither team had a significant chance to break the deadlock in the first half. And when the teams went to the lockers, Angband became stirring and growing ever louder again. It was as if the new half, would bring new life to Angband's fans. Afterall, they had seen Morgoth's strategy before, to cleverly prod and test the abilities of the opponents, before confidently putting the match away in the 2nd. Even if Minas Tirith was stubborn in resistance, they posed almost no scoring threats in the 1st, and it appeared to all Morgoth never lost control. He was yet again, the Maestro on the pitch, composing every rythym and outcome.

And so the 2nd began, again to the unnerving beats of the Orcs. The 50th minute passed, and the drums stopped beating. The 60th passed and the crude songs stopped. Then the 70th and the humming died out. It was still 0-0. When will these weak Men realize their efforts against the Might of Morgoth was fruitless? But now, Minas Tirith was even getting possession and starting to threaten Angband's goal.

But Morgoth had a key interception in the back-line and as sudden as the flames had poured out over Ard-Galen, Morgoth launched a counter. So quick and furious was the counter, it took Minas Tirith by complete surprise. Angband poured forward and the the Balrog defender fired in a powerful shot. It was bravely blocked by Cirion, but Telvildo pounced on the loose rebound and knocked the ball passed the diving fingertips of Denethor II. The creatures of Angband never doubted their master for a minute, or so they would have you believe. But now the wilfull stubborness of Minas Tirith had been broken, and they were confident Minas Tirith had been beaten down for good.

They were not, however. Feeling like they had absolutely nothing to lose, the 1-goal defecit did not break their spirits, and forgetting all caution they pressed for an equalizer. Morgoth seemed not too concerned, but actually confident they could shut this weaker age of Men out, quite easily. It was this over-confidence that cost him yet again. Never under-estimate the brave resolve of men like Faramir, Cirion, Boromir I and Mardil. In the 86th minute it was the purest display of teamwork, effort, and courage between Boromir I and Mardil which leveled the match at 1. With only mere minutes remaining it appeared Morgoth decided to resolve this fight in overtime, as the ref signaled the end of regulation.

After a small break overtime periods ended without any goals and so this one would have to be decided on penalties.

Ancalagon stepped up first for Angband. The dragon had been held in check all game, but stopping a penalty shot off the tail of Ancalagon is another matter completely. The dragon wasted no time in blasting a thunderbolt into the net, that Denethor had no chance of reacting to. 1-0 Angband.

Boromir I was first to shoot for Minas Tirith. And nearly matching the power of Ancalagon, and Carcharoth having reacted slightly sooner, nearly was able to poke it away. Yet, not quite, it zipped passed the wolf, and everything was level.

Telvildo came up next, and how effective can a cat be at a penalty kick? Telvildo was known for agility and an ability of sneaking through tight spaces, unseen, but not at all a powerful leg. The feline would have to rely on clever deception to beat Denethor II. Yet the son of Ecthelion was known for perceiving the thoughts of others, even the thoughts of great wizards such as Gandalf. He was not fooled and caught the cat's weak effort.

Mardil shot next. Carcharoth dove left, for that's where it seemed Mardil was going to shoot for it, but at the last instant he shot for the right post. After 2 shooters each, Minas Tirith had a 2-1 lead.

Morgoth, ever reliable and able to calm the doubts of his team and fans down, did not bother trying to trick Denethor. He simply overpowered the Steward's will and forced it in the back of the net.

2-2, but Minas Tirith still had their 3rd player to send up. Earnur, with a strong finish shot it to the right corner, out of Carcharoth's leap. 3-2 Minas Tirith.

Balrog #1 was up for Angband, and like Ancalagon and Morgoth before him...the Balrog over-powered Denethor, who simply had no time to react to the thunderous shot.

Faramir stepped up for Minas Tirith, and Carcharoth putting the past 3 attempts out of his mind, reacted perfectly this time, to knock Faramir's shot away from goal. After 4 rounds, Angband had leveled the shoot out at 3.

Ulfang was next, and with the recipe of the way to beat Denethor was through sheer force he put as much power behind his leg as possible. But too much, way too much and the Easterling over-hit it, sending the ball flying over the top cross bar. He had missed and the crowd groaned.

It was all in the hands of Cirion now, make this and Minas Tirith would advancing. If not, the teams would continue to just shoot in pairs until it was no longer tied. Cirion tried a similar trick to Mardil's penalty, but with the confidence of the prior save, Carcharoth was not fooled and the hound made the biggest save of his career. Remained 3-3 after 5.

So, now Ulfast was to shoot and the crowd, being spiritted after Carcharoth's heroic saves, fully got behind the son of Ulfang. Only this time, Denethor again perceived the thought of Ulfast well and punched the shot out of harm's way. The crowd groaned again, why this much trouble over penalty kicks? 6 attempts and only 3 goals?

Tarandor would take the next on for Minas Tirith. Like Cirion, it was his chance to end it. Here and now. Make this, and he would be immortalized in the annals of Minas Tirith sporting lore. Angband's wolf was stomping and howling, trying to rattle the mid-fielder. The ball was hit, Carcharoth leapt the right direction, but it rocketed just beyong the wolf's reach!

That was it. It was all over. Minas Tirith had won on penalties, 4-3. Angband and Morgoth had been defeated. A weak 3rd Age force of Men, came to the Iron Hells and were not daunted. Minas Tirith was onto the quarter-finals and Morgoth experienced his earliest exit from the Arda Cup...ever.

Angband 1-1 Minas Tirith (MT wins on pens. 4-3)
on target 4-5
tot shots 12-13
GOALS:
*73, 1-0 Telvildo (Balrog #1)
*86, 1-1 Mardil (Boromir I)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Angband- Ulwarth, Ulfast
*MT- Earnur

PENALTY SHOOT-OUT:
Ancalagon (goal)
Telvildo (save)
Morgoth (goal)
Balrog #1 (goal)
Ulfang (miss)
Ulfast (save)

Boromir I (goal)
Mardil (goal)
Earnur (goal)
Faramir (save)
Cirion (save)
Tarandor (goal)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

More overcast skies over the Vale of Necromancy have the hordes of Orcs and Easterlings supporting the local teams in good spirits, despite the results of the previous matchday. They believe that one good result could overthrow the pall cast over their chances of qualifying, and the lack of sunlight will surely help their teams’s performance on the pitch.

Group H at Minas Morgul

Meanwhile, the Gondor players looked sharp and focused despite the seemingly unnatural weather. After all, they have some players who have played superbly under these conditions before, foremost of which was Anarion, who was part of the winning team in the Orodruin (II) Invitational. Anarion’s final game in that tournament was played against the very same team they were facing today, a Sauron-led Barad-dûr squad.

And it was the younger son of Elendil that proved to be the catalyst to Gondor’s flying start, a half-hour spell aptly named the Siege of Barad-dûr. Ten minutes into the game he played a breath-taking one-two with Turambar through the heart of the Black Tower’s defence, with Turambar chipping past the bulky Mûmakil to score the opener. Fourteen minutes later Anarion was left free to rifle a long-range shot that hit the far post before ricocheting in.

With his team down by two due to one Man’s work, Sauron commanded his Mouth to guard Anarion, and for the rest of half the Númenórean was denied space to work in. With Gondor's talisman silenced, their Siege was lifted, and soon the Kings felt the bite of Barad-dûr’s offence. They held on due to some robust defending, inaccurate shooting from their foes, and a couple of fine saves from Hyarmendacil. But just before half-time Berúthiel slipped the ball past Gondor’s defence, and Sauron coolly slotted a low shot past Hyarmendacil, giving the home crowd something to cheer about.

In the second half the Orcs and Easterlings were confident that their team would get the equaliser they sought, and five minutes after the break they erupted into cheering when Berúthiel took a lofted ball from Sauron and put it past Hyarmendacil. But the linesman’s flag was raised, signalling an offside offence—the Queen had timed her run wrongly, and the referee disallowed the goal. Boos and whistles rained down on the referee, and some of the audience even attempted to climb the walls to invade the pitch. But Sauron stopped them all with a glance. I will win this game, so stay in your seats, is what it told them, and the minions of Mordor renewed their chanting. There was no way Gondor would beat Sauron’s will.

If the first thirty minutes of the game was called the Siege of Barad-dûr, then the first twenty minutes of the second half should be called the Siege of Gondor. It seems that most of the Black Tower’s players were camped outside the Kings’s penalty box, and only poor finishing from the besieging side and inspired defending from the besieged side kept the scoreline unchanged.

The high defensive line of Barad-dûr, leaving hectares of space behind them, was begging to be exploited, but Gondor found no chance to do so until the sixty-fifth minute. Imrahil booted a clearance downfield that Anarion took in stride. The Mouth and the other Barad-dûr defenders were calling offside, but the flag was down; he had timed his sprint perfectly. Fellbeast #2 got goalside of Elendil’s son, but Anarion had already seen Eldacar running behind him. He chipped the ball over the fellbeast, and Eldacar chested the pass before sending a thunderous strike past the great beast guarding Barad-dûr's goal.

The home fans were deflated by the goal. There was still enough time to claw two goals back, but Gondor seemed too sharp, and Anarion was simply unplayable. A Castamir header in the seventy-seventh minute gave them a glimmer of hope, but when Gondor started putting eleven players behind the ball, the Black Tower found the wall unbreachable. Soon, the whistle was blown, and the few thousand fans of the South Kingdom in the stadium were jubilant. Their team was already assured of a spot in the round of sixteen, with a game still at hand.

Barad-dûr 2-3 Gondor
on target 5-8
tot shots 14-19
GOALS:
*10, 0-1 Turambar (Anarion)
*24, 0-2 Anarion (Ciryandil)
*43, 1-2 Sauron (Berúthiel)
*65, 1-3 Eldacar (Anarion)
*77, 2-3 Castamir (Sangahyando)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDur- Angamaitë
*Gondor- Turambar, Calimehtar, Eärnil I

The afternoon game left the Mordor crowd with a bad taste in the mouth, but many still returned to the stadium for the evening tie, hoping that Mordor can get a result against Minas Tirith. Shelob entered the pitch with her six legs encouraging the crowd to cheer for them, which they did, albeit half-heartedly. But a few minutes after the opening whistle their cheers became louder. Mordor played a high-tempo attacking game that led to a few chances, but it seemed that the theme of the day was profligacy. Denethor II was never seriously tested at goal, since most shots sailed harmlessly off target or were blocked by the defenders. Minas Tirith seemed to content to sit back and absorb the pressure, with only Faramir and Boromir I waiting to pounce on counterattacking opportunities.

After more than half an hour of pressure Mordor finally got their opener when Shelob headed in a Nazgûl #3 cross. But they weren’t content with their lead and continued their attack on the Minas Tirith goal. However they were exposed at the back when Denethor II, after saving another Shelob effort, sent a long ball towards his son, who dashed past the Nazgûls and Grishnákh forming the last bank of Mordor players. With only Fellbeast #1 to beat, Faramir faked a shot and then released Mardil, who was running close behind him. The first Ruling Steward mustered his will and powered a shot past the Silent Watcher.

Both teams were partly relieved, partly enraged, to take an even game into the break. In the second half Mordor started playing a little more conservatively, worried about Minas Tirith’s counterattacking game. For Minas Tirith, Faramir took position in their first defensive line, adding another player to deal with Mordor’s offensive pressure. Only Boromir I was left forward to take the long balls downfield, but he found himself marked by the #1 Fellbeast and Nazgûl.

After fifteen minutes, Mordor grew impatient with the White Tower’s dogged defending, and their back line inched its way forward again to offer additional passing targets. But they left themselves open to Minas Tirith’s primary strategy—Telumehtar intercepted a Nazgûl #5 through ball and sent it downfield. Boromir I won the ball against Nazgûl #1 and raced towards the goal. Outside the Mordor box Grishnákh slid in to win the ball, but he collided with the Steward’s ankle instead. That was clearly a free kick for Gondor, and a yellow card for the Orc, which he was lucky to escape with—a tougher referee would have given him the red. After a few moments to compose himself, Boromir I stood up and told Faramir that he’s fine, and that he can take the shot. Concentrating on the back of the net, he curled the ball past the wall and the Silent Watcher to give the Stewards the lead.

The Mordor fans howled with rage. Nobody knew what would happen if their team lost this game after Sauron’s defeat in the first game, and nobody wanted to find out. The team channelled their anger and started playing at a higher tempo, forcing the Stewards to desperate challenges. Telumehtar tackled Nazgûl #4 a few yards from the box, and the midfielder tumbled to his knees, screeching in pain. The King protested that he was going for the ball, and that a Ringwraith couldn’t have been hurt by a kick, anyway, but the referee had already taken out the yellow card. Afterwards the Nazgûl stood up, healthy once more, and the Orcs and Easterlings cheered at that bit of deception from their team. Denethor II nervously arrayed his defenders before him to block all attempts at goal, but Nazgûl #4 sent a short pass to Shagrat instead, and the Orc was left with a free shot that went past the last Ruling Steward’s outstretched hand.

After the goal Mordor’s offensive pressure eased off a little, wary of Minas Tirith’s counterattacks, and the White Tower put all ten outfielders behind the ball, wary of Mordor’s attacks. Both teams were more concerned with conceding a winner than scoring one, and so the closing minutes of the game, compared to the back-and-forth in the first seventy minutes, was a great letdown.

Minas Tirith 2-2 Mordor
on target 5-6
tot shots 14-14
GOALS:
*34, 0-1 Shelob (Nazgûl #3)
*38, 1-1 Mardil (Faramir)
*62, 2-1 Boromir I
*69, 2-2 Shagrat (Nazgûl #4)
YELLOW CARDS:
*MTirith- Eärnil II, Eärnur, Telumehtar
*Mordor- Nazgûl #1, Grishnákh, Gorbag

Gondor has won the group with a game to spare. Minas Tirith is second with two points, but they can still drop out if they lose to or draw even with Gondor and someone wins the game between Barad-dûr and Mordor.

[Nogrod]

Group E at Grey Havens, round 2

After the first round games had both ended in a draw, everything was open in group E at Grey Havens. To make the day’s match-ups even more interesting, both the favourites were clashing against each other and both the less favourites were doing so as well – even if in general this group has been seen as one of the most even groups of all. So any team pulling out a win today would take a huge step towards qualifying…

The tabloid-media did all it could to make interesting people meet each other in order to make scoops or at least hot-selling headlines. It was clear they weren’t able to lure Valar like Mandos or Ulmo into their games so they had to settle with stories like The Lhûnandarwinian’s headline after arranging Elwing to shortly meet with Amrod and Amras: “Kinslayers do not repent but suicidal thief-bird forgives them anyway after running away with the prize!”; or Mithlond Mist’s exclusive interview with Andreth: “Wiseheart’s wisdom of heart: I chose to betray my kin and play for the elven team with good conscience – and better looking fellow midfielders!”; or The Seaside Gossip’s story: “Voronwë’s Stockholm syndrome: He might have jailed me to the sea for seven years only to then release me, but I do love and honour Ulmo still”.

The word had spread around the city that the Riverside Gardens would be the place to be on game days – and the local elves clearly had heard the call, for as early as the midday the park started to fill with people, even if many of them didn’t quite understand anything about football. But who cared if there was a party? Quite a many were bitten by football-frenzy though and those of them not able to purchase a ticket set their own camps to the park with flags and other Grey Havens –accessories. The organisers had learned their lessons from the first game day and now multiple loudspeakers were assembled around the park so that people could listen to a live commentary of the games also outside the stadium. Some of the not-so-keen-to-football partyers found that a bit disturbing and tried to complain but the after some fans showed them their place there were no major interruptions…


~*~

No one though the match between The Sea and Valimar would be the fastest or most furious one could see, but still the pace of the game was more or less bad publicity to the whole game. The players were skillful, top of the skill one might say, and the tactics were even better – from the POV of the coach who wishes to eliminate any randomness or chance and plays it as safe as possible. But for the spectators it was just boring, unless you took your enjoyment from tactical manouvering and great defencive positioning.

That said, Vairë the Weaver managed to create a web of anticipation distracting the Maiar defences of Ulmo for a second or two creating a blue moment with enough wide a path for Alatar to swing in behind them. And it was a goal for Valimar – with their first shot at the goal! Voronwë looked like he had sold his honour and the whole elven nation, but Ulmo was seen pacifying him and pointing at Vairë, like promising that kind of thing wouldn’t happen again.

Whatever Ulmo’s point was, nothing happened during the rest of the first half, and even the second half started with more or less the same as both teams took it extremely conservatively playing every attack carefully from the defence building them carefully with long passing combinations eventually broken by the opponent. But the farther the game got the more pressure there was for The Sea to actually start attacking in more active and risky manner.

Twenty minutes from the end of the game Ulmo finally blew his horn and the waters in the sea and the river started rising forcing pick-nicking crowds near the water to run for safety around the stadium. If one had time to take a glance into the Númenorian forwards’ eyes, one could have seen the flash of relief in there: that was finally the sign telling them to go for it for real! Meanwhile the eyes of the Maiar vassals of Ulmo narrowed and they grew in size and strength to compensate for the lack of defending aid of the Númenorians.

And suddenly the game was alive when The Sea finally started to go for the equaliser for real. And what a show it was! One rarely sees Manwë sweating, but even that wonder was witnessed by the crowds on Lhûnarena this day.

It was busy time for Fëanor’s sons as Mandos could not scare every Númenorian coming forwards at the same time. And eventually at 77th minute Amrod had to foul Vëantur when he was about to force himself free from him going for a perfect pass by the stargazer Tar Meneldur. There was a free kick from just outside the box. Tar Minastir, the one who beat Sauron himself, took the free kick and what a shot it was! Manwë just barely managed to fist the ball away only to fall and watch in terror how Tar Ciryatan slided to the rebound and the ball went… inches away from the post and an empty goal.

Three minutes later Ulmo himself rose highest to head in a corner given by Tar Aldarion but Manwë managed to tip the ball to the post from where Vana swept the rebound away – straight into the feet of Tar Meneldur who’s reaction-shot just went wide off the mark.

Three minutes from the previous Valimar had some rare counterattacking going on when Ulmo broke a half-risky pass backwards by Celebrian and sent the ball far forwards to Tar Minastir who took it in speed running for the far end of the pitch on the left side getting Amrod and Vana after him trying to shut his way both from ahead and from behind. Vëantur and his grandson Tar Aldarion rushed forwards being guarded by Mandos and Amras respectively. Suddenly, about ten meters from the box and when Tar Minastir was closing in the end of the pitch, Vëantur stopped, made a 180 degree turn and dashed towards the goal in the middle. Mandos yelled with the speed of the turn and followed, behind. Amras noticed the alarming situation and acted on his speed charging straight towards the old Vëantur to force him away from the coming pass. But given room, Tar Aldarion turned left and paced towards the center ten meters behind the action that was now centering a few meters inside the box. Tar Minastir saw him and centered the ball not in front of the goal the defenders were running into after Vëantur, but a little backwards to Tar Aldarion who shot a cannon one-timer from just the edge of the box from behind the crowd of defenders closing in. Manwë didn’t have a clear line of sight to the ball but still got his fingers in the way of the ball when it came, but it was not enough to change the trajectory of the ball to deny the goal.

The spectators burst into cheers, for even if there was slight favour in support for team The Sea amongst the locals it was not that great – but now everyone felt the equalizer was well earned indeed – and many hoped The Sea would put in a winning goal as well in the last seven minutes. But that never happened.

So one more draw from group E.

The Sea 1-1 Valimar
on target 5-3
tot shots 15-10
GOALS:
*35, 0-1 Alatar (Vaire)
*83, 1-1 Tar Aldarion (Tar Minastir)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Sea- Osse, Veantur
*Valimar- Amrod, Alatar


If the afternoon match between The Sea and Valimar had been more or less like a children’s train ride in an amusement park (except the last twenty minutes), the evening match with the home team against the men of Hithlum was a first class rollercoaster ride where the elderly spectators sure needed their pills to stay alive following the game. Let a random fact illuminate the intensity of the game: Hithlum shot 20 and The Havens 19 shots. That means, cutting the corners, that there was a shot intended at scoring every other minute during the whole game. Forty shots!

Knowing the result of the first match both teams knew a win would be worth silmarils in regards qualification, so both teams really pressed hard to score from the first minutes onwards. And it was easy to see why the game was so balanced between the two sides: Havens’ elven defence with Cirdan at the goal is steady and strong but Hithlum’s attack is one of the fiercest in the whole tournament. Then again Hithlum’s defences are not the best there are, but even if Tuor and Eärendil are major figures they are not in the same class with Húrin, Turin and Hador Goldenhead. But both teams gave it all they had.

It is actually interesting how different teams receive an image from the media and how unfounded those images may be. If you asked before the tournament from any journalist or analyst about teams Hithlum and The Havens they would have told you that Hithlum would be badly defending attacking whirlwind outshooting every other team in the cup and that The havens would be a mediocre and dull team not able to either attack or defend well enough to get through but maybe from the weakest groups (like G). And here the teams were arranging such a shooting-gallery not many teams could put up – and both teams were also defending remarkably well forcing a host of shots to go wide the mark while both goalies did a marvellous job picking those shots that came on target. So if there were elves in the stands watching the game who were not football fans yet they sure were turned into ones!

The home team opened scoring on 21st minute when Eärendil passed the ball to his dad between the legs of the great Arroch defending at the edge of the box – and Tuor nailed the ball in from close quarters, again between the legs, of Aradan this time.

After fifteen minutes it was time for Túrin to show some willpower. You can see an animated re-enactment of the goal here here. Now that could be called determination – and confidence in one’s own skills!

The second half was just as intense as the first one had been. After a few hits at the posts and few tight saves The Havens went ahead another time from a nice free-kick trick. Grithnir had fouled Eärendil close the box and was carded for his foul. The wall was prepared and both Tuor and his son stood behind the ball ready to give the free kick. With everyone’s eyes at the father and son, no one quite realised that Andreth was standing idly beside the ball looking forwards like concentrating on a run after the ball would be off. But when the referee blew his whistle and Tuor and Eärendil glanced at each other dashing forwards one after another it was actually Andreth who turned quickly about and passed the ball – with dad and son still a few meters away from the ball – sideways to king Olwë who rushed in from behind – and booted it from the bottom of his heart and to the back of the net having a clear path for the ball. Aradan stood no chance there as he realised it with all the others way too late what was happening. The homecrowds were cheering crazily.

But Hithlum was not giving in – and neither was The Havens falling back to just defend their goal. So the high-paced game continued. All fans were literally standing on their toes for any action on the field as it was so fast and furious any could lead into a goal by either side.

On 60th minute there was a beautiful family-effort when Morwen passed the ball from midfield to her husband running towards the box, but instead of taking the ball into his control he passed it back diagonally with a onetimer touch to where his daughter Nienor had rushed creating some major disarray in the defences.

But instead of passing the ball to Hador who was breaking through on the other side, Nienor just stopped the ball realising her brother coming behind her with full speed – and stepping aside she gave Túrin a perfect shot into open. The shot would have knocked out a raging bull but it went just a few inches off target (which actually wasn’t a bull of any sorts but The Havens’ goal).

On 63rd minute Aegnor made a run with the ball to the end of the field and centered the ball at the last moment being pressed by Grithnir. Eärendil slided to the ball from under Arroch but the touch was bad and the ball went high up ending up to the roof of the goal.

On 68th minute The Havens were up to it again. This time it was Eärendil’s astonishing singular performance when from a counter-attack he flew through half the field alone leaving Androg and Gethron behind with nice dribbles but finally shooting Arroch managed to dash into the way and the ball went from it’s back far off the pitch – giving the home team only a throw they managed to waste.

On 70th Nienor made an effort from 30+ meters and Cirdan managed hardly to fist the ball away. In the ensuing row for the rebound in front of the goal Túrin managed to nick the ball from between Elwing and Annael backwards to Hador who was breaking in – and he hammered the ball in from full speed with no one being able to deny him. It was even once again with twenty minutes to go!

On 78th minute Hithlum was on it once more. This time Morewn’s intelligent pass reached Húrin behind the defencive line and he was about to shoot when the referee whistled offside. Túrin protested mightily but was pulled away by his sister before he got booked.

On 84th minute Tuor and Eärendil made a combined run towards the goal on a quick turnaround. Nearing the box Eärendil suddenly fell back just a little to confuse Grithnir shadowing him enough to buy time for a pass – and he succeeded in sending the ball exactly to the feet of his dad rushing forwards on his left but just as he was going to shoot Arroch managed to put him off balance just enough for the shot to fly high over the goal. The crowds were demanding a penalty but the referee was firm.

On 88th minute Húrin was elbowed nastily by Elwing when they were reaching for the high ball coming from Aradan. Húrin’s mouth was bleeding and Elwing got carded. Húrin was taken outside the pitch to be stiched and Túrin took the free-kick from about 25 meters. The homecrowds were holding their breath…
The shot went straight to the wall and bounced high up. Hador beat Lindo to the header and the ball went towards the low-left corner of the goal. Cirdan dived for it but somehow couldn’t catch it… the ball slipped from his fingers and hit the post from where it bounced into Annael’s leg taking another bounce back towards the goal. Olwë and Nienor slided towards the ball both trying to reach it only to collide into Cirdan who was trying to rise up after the ball. The ball hit Olwë in the back and bounced outwards from the goal where Hador was running with full speed – and he was just giving it a shot when he missed his balance, possibly aided by Eärwen trailing him, and both of them ended up in the pile began by Olwë and Nienor felling Annael as well while they went down. Amidst the chaos Elwing finally beat Túrin to the ball and just kicked it as far off as she could to make good her initial fault.

It was still even. And when the game actually resumed after a lot of discussion as to who did what and to whom and in which purpose or within or off the rules, the referee whistled it over and done with.

With some heated feelings flaring after the final whistle Tuor came to Túrin offering his shirt as a token of good will and mutual respect, and after a short pause his cousin accepted the exchange with an embrace. With Hador and Andreth doing the same the other players finally realised the game was over and that they were friends after all – and slowly also the audiences started chanting for both the teams and in praise of a tough and even game.

The problem with group E though seems to be too many even games… After four games no one has won a game but all games have ended in a draw. So the stakes will be astonishingly high on the last round. And even if every team wishes to qualify, it is clear no team wishes to meet FC Valinor in their first play-off game. So it is not only about winning the last game but about winning the last game with better goal difference the other possible winner does it.
We sure are looking forwards to those games!

Hithlum 2-2 The Havens
on target 8-8
tot shots 20-19
GOALS:
*21, 0-1 Tuor (Earendil)
*37, 1-1 Turin (Hurin)
*56, 1-2 Olwe (Andreth)
*70, 2-2 Hador (Turin)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Hithlum- Arroch, Grithnir
*Havens- Andreth, Elwing


Two games:

Hithlum 2 4-4
The Havens 2 3-3
The Sea 2 3-3
Valimar 2 1-1

Last matches:

Valimar vs. Hithlum
The Havens vs. The Sea

As all games have ended in a draw any team who wins their last game will qualify. In cases of further draws Hithlum has as now the best situation having scored the most and Valimar is in the worst situation, but the number of goals scored in the last round will finally settle the order of the teams.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group stage is finally over, and, while two teams from each group continue their quest for glory, two teams are left behind to wonder where they went wrong. TENT and ArdaCup.com's joint analysis would break down the Group G teams who failed to go further, and look at their bright spots, where they would need to improve, and what they could do to improve.

Anfauglith

What They Got Right:
Conceding two to Nargothrond was not a shame; Gwindor gave trouble to every left back he met, including AC Beleriand’s Fingolfin. And Barahir’s shot was just, well, too good, and a bit too lucky. But Anfauglith shut Doriath’s dynamic front line out, and conceded just one goal to powerhouse AC Beleriand (although we admit that they would have probably conceded more had the game been for real, but then Anfauglith would probably have scored, too.) So their defence is fine, three goals against in three games against highly-rated offensive teams.

Furthermore, Thuringwethil was a pleasant surprise, scoring two goals and an assist in three games despite the supposed lack of support. She is the perfect lone forward for a counterattacking team; her team was always on the short end of possession, but she has been efficient with her time on the ball.

What They Got Wrong:
Anfauglith’s midfield was a bundle of energy, pressing well and disrupting the opposing midfield’s rhythm. However they were generally clueless on offence—Galdor and Gundor were the only names they had on the score sheet. So their nominal wingers were the only ones in their midfield who had some attacking instincts. If they were to break down teams who sat deeper against them, they would need more from the most populous part of their line-up.

What Can They Do:
Anfauglith lost $33 million this season, and, while Morgoth and Sauron can absorb the losses, the Houses of Edain can ill afford another losing season. Now, Anfauglith really should have advanced to the knockout round due to their head-to-head record against Doriath, but even had they advanced, they would still find it difficult to get past Eriador. Clearly they could no longer return to their 2011 form, which featured big (and expensive) names, but an improvement in their attack, even at the expense of their back line, would help them go a long way.

Quotes:
Thuringwethil: I know many are bitter about how we lost the second seed to Doriath, but it didn’t have to come down to goals scored. We should have beat Nargothrond; their defence was weak, and one more attacker would have made a lot of difference against them. We should have scored more against Doriath; Melian’s a good defender, but she’s only one player, and another brown shirt in their penalty box would have overloaded her. One more offensive-minded player on our side would have brought us out of our group.

Nargothrond

What They Got Right:
Nargothrond forwards had two hat-tricks in the friendlies, Gwindor was a terror of the opposition left flank, and Finrod had three goals and an assist in the group stage. So it’s easy to see that their strong point is their offence.

What They Got Wrong:
But is it, though? Many notice the five goals AC Beleriand put past them, but only a few see that they scored just one in return. And to think they had a better match-up against AC Beleriand’s defence: Glaurung vs Rochallor and Imlach. When one compares that to his markers vs Anfauglith (Balrog #4 and Borlach) and vs Doriath (Melian and Galathil), then one would see that he should have overpowered the two non-Maiar centre backs. But he didn’t even get a single goal against them. Overall, the Father of Dragons had a bad tournament, with only a goal and an assist to his name in three games.

The worst part of Nargothrond, however, was their shambolic defence. They failed to contain Thuringwethil, Fëanor, Beren, and Mablung. Now, very few can fault their performance against the Fiery Boot, but how about Thuringwethil running circles around them? Mablung overpowering and out-finessing them?

Their midfield could have helped them out, sitting deeper and holding a disciplined position in front of them. And it helped—during the first half of their game against AC Beleriand, they allowed only one goal. But when Nargothrond got impatient with breaking down Fingolfin’s defence and ordered their midfield forward, disaster followed.

What Can They Do:
The good news is that Nargothrond is a wealthy realm, able to absorb their loss this year (-$35 million), but their citizens have to be tired of dropping out so early in the tournament, left behind by their neighbours Doriath and Gondolin. They need better defenders, clearly, or at least one who could act as a leader—notice how Melian turned her woeful defenders (in the friendlies) to decent ones (in the group stage). A better goalkeeper, too—Bëor is obviously out of his depth, and he seems to be getting worse and worse the more they field him as shot stopper. 2010 Arda Cup-winning goalie Huor is a free agent, and, while his services would not come cheap, it’s cheaper than having them lose embarrassingly in 2013.

Quotes:
Finrod: We were unlucky to have faced four players on their good day. And we managed to snatch a draw despite Thuringwethil’s double. I have confidence in most of my players, though we would be taking less next year, which is what we deserve for losing. But we’ll have a look at our options, like who can play better at certain positions that we need to address. This team will be better come next year, I promise you that.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The tournament has lost half its teams again in the first round of the knockout stages. Favourites displayed strong showing, but some surprise names dropped out just after the initial hurdle. In this edition of the tactical review, we take a look at the playoff runs of Beleriand teams Doriath and Gondolin. Again, we look at their bright points, dark spots, and their possible actions for 2013.

Doriath

What They Got Right:
For a team hit hardest by the hard salary cap imposed this year, Doriath has managed to go far--surprisingly far, if you consider what the media had said about them. They were placed in a group with teams that had a defence stronger than theirs (Anfauglith), an attack stronger than theirs (Nargothrond), and a team just plain stronger than theirs (AC Beleriand), and still they managed to advance to the round of sixteen. How did they do it?

Simple: they have the right pieces at the right places, and they knew how to use them. Melian was the core of their defence--it wouldn't be a stretch to say the she was their defence. Holding Fëanor, Thuringwethil, and Glaurung to one goal each was a feat very few others could accomplish. In fact, since Fëanor's goal against Doriath was from the penalty spot, and Thuringwethil's goal came after Melian switched to left back, the only goal from open game that she conceded to those centre-forwards was Glaurung's.

Furthermore, they were a team of excellent passers from player #1 to #11, and it showed in whatever strategy they chose to play, be it possession or counter-attacking. Daeron in particular was intelligent in his passing, distributing efficiently to either wing. And speaking of wings, their fluid attacking trio of Mablung, Beleg, and Lúthien were superb in their interplay, compensating for their lack of a single striker who broke defences down single-handedly.

What They Got Wrong:
Unfortunately they ran into teams that had superior numbers in the midfield, and we were never able to see their passing game at its full power. Normally a team packing the midfield could be broken on the flanks, but this fact merely exposes a key Doriath weakness: their best centre-back (the one that kept the opponent's star scorer quiet) was also their best fullback (the one who helped in the attack with runs from very deep). Melian was asked to do too much in the back line--help contain the opponent's attack while helping her midfield maintain possession. We saw only one chance she created in her interplay with left winger Lúthien, the Mablung miss against Anfauglith. She could have focused on the wings had she a goalkeeper she could trust, but unfortunately Dior was not the one. A save rate of a little below 70%, to the tune of 8 goals allowed, would not do for a team who didn't have a suffocating defence, or a go-to scorer to claw back the deficit.

What Can They Do:
In making it to the bracket stage, they lost only $4 million, a sum they could easily make up by trimming some of their salaries. Furthermore, Elu Thingol might return to his home team, considering what he said after Wilderland's loss, and his height and power would help them either in the front or the back. However, their two wingers performed well enough this year (Lúthien's actual stat notwithstanding, she produced more chances than any other Doriath player) that the risk of them being lured by other Beleriand teams exists--especially Beleg, considering his long-standing partnership with Túrin.

Quotes:
Daeron: I think we surprised a lot of people with what we did this year. Hardly anyone counted on us to get out of our group, but we made it, and we came close to forcing Eriador to a shoot-out, even. Next year, with one or two more pieces, I believe we could go further.

Gondolin

What They Got Right:
No-one doubted what Gothmog and Maeglin can do, which is to score. After taking a friendly game to adjust, they did exactly that, accounting for fourteen of their team's sixteen goals in eight games, and assisting in the two others. Maeglin was a walking highlights reel, combining his father's craftsmanship with his mother's Finwëan grace and power. And Gothmog was the terror of centre-backs with his size and speed.

Their midfield was also useful on attack: Meleth shared the ball efficiently, Elemmakil sent quality crosses into the box for target-man Gothmog, and Duilin was a gem as attacking midfielder. He played killer balls into the box for the strikers and made late runs after the teams have focused on their intimidating forward duo.

What They Got Wrong:
For every goal they scored, however, it seemed that they conceded one in return (they had seven goals for and against). Their defence allowed almost fourteen shots per game. This would not have been a problem had Rog been in top form, but sadly he has never quite returned to his 2010 form (despite his slight improvement from his performance last year):

Rog's save rate:
2010: 85.19% (vs Ar-Pharazôn, Phantom, Túrin, Maeglin)
2011: 61.11% (vs Eönwe, Varda, Arien, Míriel, Nerdanel)
2012: 68.18% (vs Fingon, Glorfindel, Witch-king, Fëanor, Eöl)

What Can They Do:
A loss of $3 million is easy enough for the Hidden Realm to handle. Besides, Gondolin is a realm of great footballing talent (they have the Cup to prove it), so even if they lose one of their star forwards in the off-season, they surely have someone who could step up. They would need more help for their back line, however, and perhaps on goal, too, unless they trust the blacksmith to shake out of whatever funk he had sunk into. A small upgrade in midfield would also help--their holder Salgant was exposed by AC Beleriand's midfield for his lack of positional awareness, when he was supposed to be the one plugging the holes in their defence.

Quotes:
Maeglin: Despite the initial hiccup, and that was against Real Valinor, our team has done well enough for something that was built almost on the fly. We have other talents to draw from that are now playing in other teams, so we'll eventually find the pieces we need to go further into the tournament.