Meeting at the Town Cobbler (WW XCV game thread)

[Rikae]

So:

Mac
Shasta
Steve

If you choose to believe me, we give one the boot now, and (unless that one should out of sheer cussedness decide to be the ranger, or I have through some bizarre circumstance been protected twice already), I can dream again next hour and find the final dirty rotten party pooper in our midst.

Or else I'm evil, in which case, real seer, step forward...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh yeah, and Nogrod pm'd me when he left, apparently trying to get me worried about Mac and complaining about how people didn't notice his clever hints. Seems his post before dawn was supposed to illustrate his uncertainty that he would survive, and his odd remarks about Inzil were supposed to point toward it.

I would agree that this makes Mac look more innocent. Yes, Nog must have known that his role would be revealed upon his death, but that looks like too obvious a double-bluff. I doubt Nog would have gone for something as...unsubtle as that.

In which case, Steve is the only person I'd really consider lynching today - Shasta could be a committee member, but since we haven't seen anything from him yet whereas we've seen several suspicious things from Steve (the vote for me Day 1 and his suspicion of Nog, which amount to "oh, well, yes, he is suspicious, funny you pointed that out...but I was going to go for him all along"). Plus, I would like to give Shasta at least one Day to play.

[Macalaure]

When I saw that Nogrod was lynched my first thought was "No! Why?", then I saw he was indeed a wolf, and then I read through the thread and saw what an amazing hole he dug for himself.

Killing Inzil was the best choice I suppose. He looked innocent, was vocal, and made sense. I don't think they thought he looked seer-ish.

Sad thing is that Nogrod absorbed all attention yesterHour, and focused on Inzil (and lesser: me), so I don't think there's anything pointing towards the last wolf.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

A thought I've just had is that if Mac is a committee member, he may have been trying to set up an early distancing between him and Wilwa by lightly suspecting her and then voting her, yet suggesting a tied vote so that no-one actually died. It would probably be quite a good tactic. If this is the case, then in one sense it backfired horribly, but in another it means that Mac now looks quite innocent by being half responsible for her death.

I don't like this too much. Wolfgrod already mentioned something similar before and I addressed it. Apart from missing that, the wording in the end doesn't sit right with me.

He brings it back with:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

But the Wilwa connection isn't looking that great.

Wilwa-connection? He started out by an assumption (if I'm a wolf), then he starts treating it like a fact.

While Eonwe lists Nogrod as most suspicious, he still seems most reluctant out of everybody to actually go after him.


I don't see a reason to doubt Rikae's claim at the moment, which means:
Rikae: seer
Lottie: not-wolf
Mac: not-wolf (hoping you believe me there)
Shasta or Eonwe: wolf
Also, two out of Lottie, Shasta, and Eonwe are gifted.
If Shasta or Eonwe is the hunter, he should pick the other one to kill.
If one of them is the ranger and we lynch him, then... that would not be so good.

Barring any more reveals, I'm leaning towards voting Eonwe right now. Of course, we barely heard anything from Shasta so far.

[Macalaure]

PS: sorry about missing the vote last night, by the way. I thought I had time but ended up being busier around the deadline than I thought I would.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

In which case, Steve is the only person I'd really consider lynching today - Shasta could be a committee member, but since we haven't seen anything from him yet whereas we've seen several suspicious things from Steve (the vote for me Day 1 and his suspicion of Nog, which amount to "oh, well, yes, he is suspicious, funny you pointed that out...but I was going to go for him all along"). Plus, I would like to give Shasta at least one Day to play.

Pretty funny that you'd say that when that's exactly what you did. I'd actually already said that I found him most suspicious before any of the votes.

[Eönwë]

Ok, thinking about it, it seems unlikely that Lottie is evil.

Option 1- Seer-Rikae and non-wolf-Lottie:
Well, that's exactly what it they're saying on the thread.

Option 2- Seer-Rikae and Wolf-Lottie
Wouldn't happen. Much too risky.

Option 3- Wolf-Rikae and non-wolf-Lottie
Could happen

Option 4- Fake-revealing gifted Rikae:
Unlikely because of the high chance of guessing wrong, and if that is the case, not only negating the purpose of a fake-revealing innocent, but also narrowing down possible seer candidates.

So unless Rikae is a fake-revealing gifted, Lottie is not a wolf.

[Eönwë]

Anyway, it's later here than I was expecting- I hope you all judge well while I'm gone.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, it seems to have been a while since the last post, and since there's no real reason to disbelieve Rikae, I guess that means I just have to look at Mac and Eonwe. Easy enough.

[Rikae]

Well, I really would like to hear a bit more from Shasta, Mac and Steve (gone for the hour?) - don't any of you have anything to say that might influence our decision?
I know I've made it sound as though we had already won, but according to my calculations the wrong choice now will mean that two hours from now Lottie will have a 50% chance of voting wrongly losing the game. As interesting as such an hour might be, I'd rather vote as well as possible now, which means I'd rather hear more from the three gentlemen mentioned above...

[Eönwë]

Ok, I'm back. I might not be totally coherent because of mock exams and tiredness, but these are my current thoughts.

For now, I'm accepting Rikae's reveal. I mean, I was getting non-ordo vibes from her from the start, and now at least that's certain (though the same goes for all of you). Yes, I am the sole innocent left here. You can disbelieve me if you want- I mean, I'd rather you killed me than any of the three gifteds. And now we're in a position where the hunter's life is arguably just as, if not more valuable than that of our seer, which is quite strange. And if she's not the real seer, then the real seer should definitely reveal now.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If you choose to believe me, we give one the boot now, and (unless that one should out of sheer cussedness decide to be the ranger, or I have through some bizarre circumstance been protected twice already), I can dream again next hour and find the final dirty rotten party pooper in our midst.

Hopefully, if we don't hit the hunter in the Day. Though on the other hand, if we cause a tie and have no lynches, while we definitely get another Day, we also know the identity of one less person, meaning that either you get lucky and find the committee member, or we have to choose between two.

edit: x-ed with Mac's first.