WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Boromir88]

Day 1

Gave a pretty cautious, and luke-warm Inzil impression on Day 1. Not involved aside from doing a few IC posts about the guide (and suspecting Pitch because Pitch said Inzil was harping on the guide).

This is perhaps Inzil's most substantial post of Day 1.

Kath's vote seems a bit odd, true, but I can posit an innocent reason behind it, as well as the obvious evil throwaway potential.

The way Pitch latched onto G55 as soon as she appeared is a bit jarring. Would an evil Pitch be so obvious, though?

And Legate Voting TEW as a "warning vote". I get his point about TEW, but that seems like a rather extreme "warning".

Meh. I apologize for being useless toDay. If I'm around, I'll do my best to make it up Day 2.

There was the accusation of me "harping' about the guide being partly responsible for our predicament (which I mentioned in only two halfhearted IC posts). Then his interactions with Bom, followed by the sudden switching of targets to G55.

He admits to feeling useless for the day, but still seemed detached, or as if he didn't care where the lynch went. Not sure if I can explain it well...but just the "Let me give a few names, say some wishy-washy suspicions, and vote. And again, to point out, at this time he made the Pitch vote, thinking that it would be the 1st vote for Pitch.

Day 2

Now, back from Day 1, Inzil had said he'd be better. Fairy nuff not going to fault someone for being busy and rushed. Also, TEW did vote for Inzil (which reminds me Legate argued for a possible frame job against Inzil).

Originally Posted by #102

First off, sorry about that, Pitch. He was the only one I really had anything on, even though, as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity. The two votes for him coming so hot on the heels of mine was rather freaky.

Not much time for much of toDay, sadly. I'll get on when I can, though.

I believe this was the main reason for Kath voting Inzil, yesterday, yes? The apology does raise a wolf flag. Not really the "Sorry Pitch" part, but he seems to be trying really hard to convince us he didn't mean it "as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity." Then deflects away from his vote, by reminding about the two votes that quickly followed.

I think this more likely than a desire for a trailless kill, as there would seem to have been more choices who left a lot less to be analyzed than TEW.

His response to Nerwen, who had suggested TEW was killed as a possible frame job and TEW's general behavior seemed possibly gifted. Not sure if this tells us anything about Inzil, but Legate, are you sure you still want to call me the aggreeable one?

Originally Posted by #117

I concur. The Pitch votes (and yes, that includes mine) should naturally be our focus, I think.

Why did I vote for him? I said so here and here.

Kitanna's and G55;s x/d with mine. Over an hour later, Bom came in with his, and sealed Pitch's fate.

G55 has said hers was "out of spite". Since it led to his lynch, that would seem an especially questionable reason.

Kit's was better reasoned.

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

Responding to Legate, and huh agreeing with Legate, that the Pitch votes should be the focus and not why TEW was killed. And the inclusion of "(and yes, that includes mine)" looks out of place. Why make sure we remember Inzil is including his own vote?

His next couple posts are a few comments on the mod-fire rule and game mechanics. Nothing that would seem to tell us anything about him

But in #157, led me to wanting to have a closer look at Inzil yesterday:

I wouldn't say I "backtracked", though I did feel bad for voting him. It seems I always end up suspecting him and he's never guilty.

That was his reply to Kath, who said Inzil apologized for his Pitch vote. He disagrees, but really what would you call "as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity," then?

I think Nerwen looks more shiny than G55 at the moment. Also feeling rather good about Kit.

Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh.

Legate seems to be his genuine innocent self.

Greenie seems sharp somehow. Not really sure what I mean by that, but she makes sense and gives me pause at the same time.

Some more general comments and feelings about people. All pretty non-commital, feels good about some. I have no idea what the "Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh." statement was supposed to mean.

#164, tells Legate, he likes what he sees from Laeko, but not enough to declare innocent. And says he'd be in favor of Bom if voting Bom was possible, but the day would look like it was coming down to Nerwen and G55.

#169, he decides he could vote for G55 "based on what Nerwen says" (if that doesn't look like a set up statement, then I don't look smashing in a Tux), but also...

...as well as the fact that she was involved in the Pitch-wagon yesterDay (along with, coincidentally, I'm sure, Bom ). It's hard for me to believe no wolves were involved with that.

Nerwen points out that Inzil was also involved in the Pitch-wagon and one of his replying comments just seemed unnecessary:

And to be accurate, I started the Pitch-wagon.

I said this wouldn't be something I would be very proud of, and Inzil clarified, he wasn't proud, but stating fact. Still, the statement looks unnecessary, but it was prompted by Nerwen reminding Inzil was also in the Pitch-voters. I don't think I explained it clearly yesterday, and probably can't clarify much better today. But, why feel the need to say this unless, you Inzil, were getting nervous Nerwen was suspecting you for being in the Pitch voters. Yet, still trying to appear unbiased because you were the one who "started" it.

From Day 2 then, continued non-commital towards nearly everyone. Except on Day 1 he picked Pitch (then apologized for it next day) and Day 2, he seemed mostly focused on Bom until realizing Bom would be a throw away vote. And Bom conveniently wasn't there to challenge or answer Inzil suspecting him.

I stand by what I said yesterday, that Inzil is certainly better and more involved than what he's been showing. And in some ways he's looked nervous when Nerwen pointed out he was in the Pitch-wagon, when Kath said he back-tracked on his Pitch vote. And really Legate, you say my posts are aggreeable?

Haven't thoroughly read his post on Kitanna today, will go do that after supper.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But you understand that I put forward that theory *before* Greenie pointed out the anomaly of Boro's being left off the list the second Day?

That as well might be, but the point is that you still keep holding to it even up to now. No considering of the anomaly still, then?

And okay, I really don't want to keep us picking in this any more, but in order to respond:

Hang-on– you still believe it now? Have you read the counter-arguments, Legate?

Which ones? In what you replied to, I was no longer talking about Pitch. I had said already by then that it is possible, not a 100% truth (and I never said that, I mean, who would), and from almost the beginning, I was saying that it is not as much ("that re: thing not being so much, BUT it being a possibility"), what I said later was only that I still think it more probable than your Boro theory. And that's what I was talking about, not about Pitch: I was saying that the Boro theory makes no sense, in my book. I mean, yes, it was not any "hello, these people are innocent:" list, but it was still a Seer's list, almost the only thing she had said ever about people in some ordered way, it seems obvious to me she had not dreamt a wolf at any point, and if I was a Seer, I definitely would not omit the possibility to list my known innocents on the lists of people I trust. Why should I not? What would I lose by that? So unless Sally acted completely illogically here (which is possible, but I would rather hope not), then Boro is not an option for the dreamed innocent for me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Really? You keep saying I'm being Mr. Agreeable, but seriously, are you even reading my posts? What about them is so "agreeable?" The fact that I'm not being a big enough pain, jumping around like a madman demanding everyone listen to me? Sorry to disappoint you, but I see no point in going off half-cocked, all but begging to be lynched.

Boro! Now if you are innocent, what kind of a behavior is that? Suddenly you totally jumped out at me after I said that you are too agreeable. What should I think now, that you did so because I warned you that you are acting too agreeable?

Okay, maybe this jump is genuine, after I have read it twice. But yes, you are being Mr. Agreeable, that is a fact. You've been rather un-conflict-y until very recently, you have been responding to posts (also in the earlier days a few times) which I would have expected you to retaliate to with rather random wave of your hand, if ever. Anyway however, that is not a crime. I confess that probably my judgement of you was also partially clouded by considering Nerwen's peculiar pedantry on you being innocent really suspicious in the sense that you two could be packmates. But all right, what then?

If Boro looks better now when I look back, that also means that if he is innocent, surely Nerwen won't be "defending" him if she was a Wolf. If I am willing to admit that Nerwen's thinking was just that of a differently thinking innocent, then of course there is a lot more to ponder.

I could of course make a complete 180° and turn to what has been troubling me since the start (or since sometime yesterDay anyway), but which I kept shrugging of as complete paranoia: the thinking that Kath and/or Greenie and somebody else (? Kit ?). I mean: if Nerwen is not a Wolf, then I could expect that the Wolves are fueling the Nerwenwaggon or messing around with the general public opinions and feelings, and in that case, it could possibly be Greenie (voting Nerwen), or again Kath, when she debates with herself about the issues with me and Nerwen and everyone, that could be interpreted also in the way of somehow adding small pieces of fuel to the general fires. Kit could be the same with her Nerwelysis (which, however, in some ways seems bringing rather good points and notices, it is only at some points sort of "dragging Nerwen down" along, but then again, analysis is analysis... if there is something negative-looking, you have to mention it). Of course, one would have hard time thinking that these two are packmates, with Kath voting Greenie. In any case, Kath still seems rather reasonable in her actions and with the pondering in her latter lists, and it would be rather a bit of paranoia that would bring me to consider her. But then again, at this stage of the game, everything is a paranoia.

At least for me, so yes, if you wish, call it a confused innocent. And especially toDay has been somewhat distracting for me.

Still, if I look at it, there are still most things which are unsettling about Nerwen. The Boro thing is not one of those I would vote her for, though: at least not unless I have a proof that Boro is her packmate. It is more like a puzzling thing. Although of course if one is a Wolf, it often happens that if your opinion appears faulty, it is better to still hold to it so that you don't lose credit - not sure if Nerwen especially would operate on this basis, though. Does not really strike me as that kind of player. Or maybe yes? But the way she reacted to some stuff is still unsettling, even if I put this away. And now what I found also strange was the last list about Greenie she posted, as it seems totally "what the Angband is that?" I mean, are you saying that Greenie's post looks more like a Seer list than Sally's and therefore Greenie should've been killed, and since she was not, it proves she was a Wolf? Weird.

And I am once again completely missing Azura and Laeko - who haven't been very talkative (though as I recall Laeko posted yesterday quite innocentishly).

Probably x-ed with a lot... and sorry for the novels. Also should vote soon-ish, preferrably.

EDIT: x-ed with some Boro

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Basically: I either must say that we have a village full of Werewolves, or that there is none. Depending what threshold I set on my "Wolf-detector". If I set it too low and ignore everything with saying "yes, this was probably meant well, it only sounds weird", I end up with no WWs at all. If I set it too high, I can just as well end up with suspecting everyone. It certainly should not work that way.

Where the detector "beeps" the first now is probably Nerwen. However there are many "but"s, still it probably is the closest to what I would call "suspicious" right now. The biggest "but" probably is: But why would she act like she does if she was a Wolf? I mean - it is not very "professional", to get jumpy, to make seemingly illogical claims about who was or was not dreamt of... maybe one could think about inventing fake suspicions of people based on stuff like "because she is still alive and it seems to me that she looked like a Seer, she must be evil", but that's a bit weird too, also, it might have been possibly retaliatory - in the "good" sense - an innocent replying in affectu (it can influence you even if you don't actually realise that). You can explain everything positively or negatively, the question is where you draw the line.

One could also ask: so what are the Wolves like now? Are they calm and collected (Kath? Greenie?), or are they somehow frustrated and jumpy - now they shouldn't be, should they, they are in rather good spot now - unless they are being suspected (Nerwen? Boro?). By the way, if there is no Wolf among these four, I call upon the powers of the Valar so that you choose to lynch me instead so that I cannot do any more harm. But on a more serious note, I really need to make a decision and Nerwen probably looks the lowest in the "beep" field, like I said. Unless... unless it happens to be the very same thing like the last two Days - in other words, just another bandwagon. Hm, I think I know what I will do now: I need to take a look at the two Days' voting lists again. Now with considering all the different possibilities, maybe there is something I forgot.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Boro! Now if you are innocent, what kind of a behavior is that? Suddenly you totally jumped out at me after I said that you are too agreeable. What should I think now, that you did so because I warned you that you are acting too agreeable?

I'm more thinking just different meanings. By agreeable I assume you meant I was mimicking what people were saying, which to me, is flat out untrue. Sounds like though you say I'm coming off as "Mr. Nice Guy" though? Trying to sweet talk people with calmness.

Granted, I haven't been as bull-headed as I can be, but that side tends to come out when things really become desperate. But that normally leads to greater frustration and just getting the "ahh screw it/hopeless" attitude.

You will probably say this makes me agreeable, but I do admit to not giving any substantial look at Nerwen. That mostly comes from a history of being unable to figure her out and then flat out fear. My general impression, based on yesterday, is that G55 was acting like a loon and I can't find suspicion against Nerwen for that carnival show. G55 did a good job making people think she was a wolf. And also, because of G55's eratic behavior, it put Nerwen in a defensive position, which has carried over to the suspicion today.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm more thinking just different meanings. By agreeable I assume you meant I was mimicking what people were saying, which to me, is flat out untrue. Sounds like though you say I'm coming off as "Mr. Nice Guy" though? Trying to sweet talk people with calmness.

The second is what I mean, and I said it also back then, I think I used words like "honey-tongued" or something. So yes, when I say "Mr. Agreeable", I mean by that "not responding aggressively, or even not questioning people so much in general, but acting more like 'yes, my friend, you have a good point'".

You will probably say this makes me agreeable, but I do admit to not giving any substantial look at Nerwen. That mostly comes from a history of being unable to figure her out and then flat out fear. My general impression, based on yesterday, is that G55 was acting like a loon and I can't find suspicion against Nerwen for that carnival show. G55 did a good job making people think she was a wolf. And also, because of G55's eratic behavior, it put Nerwen in a defensive position, which has carried over to the suspicion today.

The last sentence is true and something worth thinking about. However, the same way indeed you should not probably just go over Nerwen's posts - or others' suspicions against her, more like - with the attitude "nah, this is all just born out of yesterDay, I know she is being wronged here, I don't even need to consider whether it does not have any real basis" (I'm saying that because I know from experience it's easy to do that). But yes, well, balance of opinions needs to be maintained.

Now I have looked at the voting lists, I will maybe think about them still for a while just in case I don't get some brilliant idea... while doing that, I have also actually reread large parts of the thread. Looking at it, I am now feeling more on the "I think nobody is a Wolf" side - or in fact, I started thinking how, erm, hilarious it would be if the Wolves were Laeko and Azura (and somebody who keeps just hiding well, but then again, not sure if there is anybody exactly like that right now). But I guess (I hope) nobody (meaning: no Wolf pack) could be that lucky (to end up in such a constellation). Aside from that, I would be inclined to think Sally's death was carefully planned, and somehow it seems difficult to imagine the coordination with group of the "hiding" kind.

If I wanted to look at the "worst" votes overall I think it could be for example Kit's, or at least the yesterDay's one, in the start, I don't quite like it, as the first (the other one was this triple-cross, so who knows what to make of it). There are some people of whom there are some missing votes (aside from Laeko and Azura, there's Greenie who already voted toDay but did not vote on Day 1, however with explanation), which makes them more difficult to analyse.

Last of all, once again re-read some quotes of Nerwen, and even now with bearing what Boro said in mind, some of those still look a bit Wolvish, like (to Gal):

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And should you happen to turn out innocent– which is seeming less and less likely– my excuse would of course be that I thought you were probably a wolf, from your conduct. Which I do.

There are these "pre-emptive" words. Once again one could start asking if a Wolf would so "bluntly" post something like that. But then again, why would an innocent say that, too?

I think I might still take a look at Inzil - there is still the possibility of him being "the slippery one" and the TEW thing being really a preemptive strike based on fear of the Seer who dreamt of Zil, and then I'll see about my vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm. I don't know about Zil. Sort of dark area for me, still too much. I have also reread some posts by Greenie, now I am inclined to count her among the innocent.

Of all people, Nerwen still looks to me the most voteworthy, but it would be really nice if she still posted at least once before I have to go, so that I could compare some "fresh" posts of hers, too.

Okay, will be back in some time - let's say fifteen, twenty minutes - and then vote, because it is getting close to 3 AM here. Heck, am I supposed to start to be like Nogrod, since we don't have him in this game?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh come on, that was nearly half an hour (or more by the time I finish this...). If there are any Wolves lurking around and avoiding posting, I hope they are lynched a painful lynch.

Zil definitely deserves a second look, for future reference - he is sort of floating on the edge of the debate, adding a bit here and there, very sort of "defensive" or maybe rather "pre-emptive", that's better word - very careful in pointing out how he did not want to vote Pitch, how he was freaked out by other people voting Pitch too (why did you vote him, then?), next Day immediately making sure he posts explanations as to why did he vote him, yesterDay making a vote when the bandwagon was already running smoothly, making several posts with little substance or lot of uncertainity, like this:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh.
(...)
Greenie seems sharp somehow. Not really sure what I mean by that, but she makes sense and gives me pause at the same time.

= saying nothing, and yet this was quite a substantial portion of his post...

And so on. But nevertheless, this is all to remark that it might be good to look at him. As for my current vote, I will go with my original option, that is,

++Nerwen

And good Night, village.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Zil definitely deserves a second look, for future reference - he is sort of floating on the edge of the debate, adding a bit here and there, very sort of "defensive" or maybe rather "pre-emptive", that's better word - very careful in pointing out how he did not want to vote Pitch, how he was freaked out by other people voting Pitch too (why did you vote him, then?)

I answered already that here.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

next Day immediately making sure he posts explanations as to why did he vote him, yesterDay making a vote when the bandwagon was already running smoothly, making several posts with little substance or lot of uncertainity, like this:

As a matter of fact, I have been rather uncertain. As for why I explained things the way I did, see here.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think this actually looks more like a coded list than anything Sally posted– note all the "undecideds" and "not sure about alignments". It is true that only one person (Kath) is in the "good vibes" category, but Seers don't always list the people they know of together– too much of a giveaway– and I'd accept Legate's being "fine this far" as a near-equivalent.

I'm just wondering why the wolves bit on Sally instead.

Well, let's see. I don't see anything really noteworthy about Greenie's list there. It is a bit curious that while Sally had expressed suspicion of you, it was Greenie who had voted for you Day 2. It doesn't mean I don't have my doubts about you, but it's food for thought.

And Boro, I'm not going to line by line go through your analysis of me. If it seems off that I made a point of saying what I did and why, so be it. When I stressed that I had not only been involved in the Pitch-wagon but had been the first vote as well, my intention was to be fair. I'm not worried about my actions. Let people take them as they will.

x/d with Legate

[Boromir88]

Day 1

First post with substance is #48 and about Pitch.

Thing is, on previous showing, Bom is a very easy target. (Hope you don't mind my saying that, Bom.) Pitch knows this well, even if you don't– which does make me wonder about him, yes it does. And then, his switching to G55, also a novice player with a bit of a history of attracting suspicion– hmmn.

On the other hand, his cases on both of them were sound enough, by Day One standards– and someone had to get the ball rolling...

Looks reasonable. Yes, there is the "suspecting" and "maybe not" look. But it's a fair point on Pitch's actions and looks more like a Lommy flip-flopping, since she brings up a good counter argument.

#52 is

I was pointing out his perhaps opportunistic choice of targets– so yes, I suppose that's "casting suspicion". Is that a problem?

Less material = quicker analysis. It's easier, but lazier. And generally less useful, since mostly you're just pointing out what anyone else could see at a glance.

Nerwen being straight forward. Maybe some have an issue with the tone, but she's never been one to shy away from being blunt.

#60, remarks on the strangeness of the Pitch-wagon and notices G55 mixed up Pitch and Bom. G55 was trying to refer to the time when there was some heat between Bom and me, but it looked like she was saying Pitch and me.

#64, agrees that Kath's vote for sally was suspect and could vote for Kath, because she didn't want a universal bandwagon against Pitch.

I might vote her, simply *because* I don't want a universal bandwaggon – and yeah, her vote was suspect, all right. The only thing I could say about it, really, is that this being *Kath*, she may honestly not realise what you're *supposed* to do on Day One. (Trouble is, looking at Kath tnds to bring Pitch back into it anyway.)

I'll have to wait until I go through Day 2 more thorougly, until I can get a clearer view on the above quote. because I think Nerwen's post here was one of the bigger reasons G55 was suspicious of Nerwen yesterday.

I definitely recall G55 giving "spite" as a reason of voting Pitch on Day 1. So, I don't know how Nerwen stating she didn't want a universal bandwagon, and that Kath's vote did look suspicious looks any worse than G55's Day 1 vote.

Day 2

#87, is Nerwen's conclusions on why TEW was killed. I didn't see much of a conclusion, more a statement of all the possible explanations. It would be a long quote, so here's the post. Although, in this post, she seemed to favor the argument that TEW was killed because the wolves thought he was the seer.

#94, several things here. First she brings up TEW would not have been high on her kill list (Legate questions who would be later, and Nerwen gives it). Again, Nerwen is not one to shy from at least giving blunt answers.

G55 said if the wolves thought TEW was the Ranger or Hunter, they could have just got him lynched. Nerwen replied:

Not really– that kind of thing can backfire pretty badly. Gifteds do have a nasty habit of revealing on the way to the gallows, after all.

And then she tells Legate that this G55 quote looks like nightly wolf communications:

Originally Posted by G55

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

If this was the beginning of Nerwen's suspicions against G55 then I think it looks reasonable. Granted, Nerwen is a sly player to accuse reasonably, especially when someone is getting as crazy acting as G55 got yesterday.

Oh man, I forgot how long these took. If it does any good I'll continue going through them, but Nerwen's posted more than anyone else and I'm getting a bit exhausted.

My conclusion before the end of the Day 2 shenanigans is Nerwen's been blunt and combative (as usual), so doesn't tell me much on her role. Although, I hardly think G55 had good suspicions against Nerwen and so I'm not understanding the suspicions now. But let me look at Greenie, Legate and some other reasons given today more.

(I better have crossed since I came back after Inzil's post following Legate's flood posting)