WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Nerwen]

And there wasn't any real last-minute frenzy, either– so there you go, a veritable triad of improbability. How long can the fabric of the universe hold?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And there wasn't any real last-minute frenzy, either– so there you go, a veritable triad of improbability. How long can the fabric of the universe hold?

I'm trembling in my fuzzy Yoshi pajamas.



Bedtime for Sally. Nobody should eat me.

[Laeko_Randalis]

My, oh my, but posts go by quickly here.
The quotes don't help. My poor head...

But, umm, look upon my cute pony icon and tell me, could you really suspect someone with a Twilight Sparkle avatar of being a cold-bloodthirsty killer?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, DL was about an hour and a half ago. My apologies. Let me just go back and see who's died...

--------------------------------------------------

As the cold sun dropped behind the range at their backs, enough people had decided that Pitchwife was to blame for their predicament, and for the gruesome death of their caravan boss. They tied him up and left him at the foot of one of the steep cliffs, covered in snow, and left him there, still pleading and yelling with them to come back, that he wasn't a bad person, that it wasn't his fault...

Pitchwife's voice was loud enough that it shook the snow free from the cliff above him. Tons of cold white death fell upon him, and he never spoke again.

Pitchwife was an ordo.

It is now Night 1.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Night 1 ends.

As the sun's light rose slowly over Caradhras, lighting up the ground below, the caraveners slowly ventured out of their wagons. Everyone seemed to be accounted for... wait.

Where was The Elf-Warrior?

As one, they turned to look at the wagon that had always been set just a little off from everyone else.

Horrendous clawmarks gouged the door, and blood splattered the threshold.

One or two brave souls ventured a peek inside. There lay their missing comrade, torn to pieces and tied up in his best blanked, hung from the rafters like a macabre pinata.

Day 2 begins.

Dead - The Elf-Warrior (Ordo)

[Nerwen]

Okay... since nobody's around to talk, it seems it's left to me to begin the traditional "Why was he killed?" talk.

So– the face of it, TEW seems a fairly typical Night One trailless kill– he said little about anyone (except for Legate). However, that is from memory, as I haven't yet re-read the thread.

Analysis to follow...

[Nerwen]

The Elf-warrior

#34.

Originally Posted by TEW

Some random thoughts. The problem with trying to figure out how wolves will behave is that they can adjust their behavior accordingly. They can be at each others throats if we say they'll act chummy with each other, for example. However, we can try to sniff out lycanthropy in people's posts like you all have been doing.

To me, Sally is acting like Sally which doesn't say anything about her guilt or innocence. I'm neutral in regards to her guilt or innocence. Nerwen and Laeko_Randalis are the same way.

I am detecting a slight, slight wolvish vibe in the final paragraph of Legate's first post. I think any advantage of having a smaller field is outweighed by the sheer numerical fact that the smaller the village is, the closer the wolves are to winning.

#47. (Replying to Legate at #44.)

Originally Posted by TEW

Actually, Legate, I had and still have time. I was trying to prod you with my remark and your responses seem unwolvish to me. In response to your question, it's easier to make comments about people who haven't said much.

#54.

Originally Posted by TEW

I've reread the thread and this statement by Inziladun looks to me like a possible wolf to wolf communication "As for as wolvish tactics, I don't think anything could be ruled out. I wouldn't think wolf-on-wolf would be necessary, but who knows?"

I'm inclined to believe Pitchwife's explanation that he was trying to stop being Mr. Agreeable. However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time. Bom feels innocent to me. He seems to have the right amount of understanding how his statements could be construed as suspicious.

Greenie seems innocent. Besides, she's sick so I'm not voting for her. In regards to Kitanna, I'm inclined to think missing most of the day by accident is a mistake an innocent would make. Later, I'm going to review Boromir and Galadriel55's posts. Stay tuned.

#71.
Medium-length analysis of Boro and G55. (Why those two in particular? He doesn't say.)
Concludes that "both look okay".


#76.

Originally Posted by TEW

I'm going with my previously expressed suspicion

++Inziladun

CONCLUSION
TEW was more talkative than I realised, but as numerous players pointed out, he seemed to have very little to say– made a few uncontroversial general statements, and was "neutral" about– well, just about everyone. It is quite possible that this is what got him killed– he may well have looked like a Seer being overly careful not to say anything that might falsely implicate others.

The exceptions, of course, are his statements about Legate (#34) ("...a slight, slight wolvish vibe..."), Pitchwife (#54)("However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time") and Zil (#54) ("...a possible wolf to wolf communication..."), plus voting him.

Now, really the Legate comment should not have been seen as a "Seer-hint", since TEW backed off from it immediately, describing Legate in his next post as "unwolvish"– something no responsible Seer would say about a dreamed wolf. It is, however, just barely possible that the wolves considered him a Seer who panicked at Legate's aggressive reaction.

Zil is another matter– the fact that he is the *only* person TEW really accused, in tandem with TEW's "nervous gifted" behaviour, really looks pretty bad for him– to the point where I think Zil himself should be next up for analysis.

(Pitchwife, though, is a counter-example– here we have TEW saying a known innocent "could be a werewolf". This *should* have led the pack to take anything else he said with a grain of salt.)

All the above of course assumes the wolves killed TEW as a supposed Seer, but that doesn't have to be the case. It may have been a framing attempt, or they may have taken his caution and jumpiness as a sign he was *a* gifted, and not bothered about which. (I notice he used the sword icon in his first post, which could have been taken as either a Hunter or Ranger clue.)

Finally, it may have been just a random trailless kill– really unless Zil and/or Legate are wolves, TEW points to no-one at all. But in that we have to wonder why certain other people are still alive.

EDIT:typo.

[satansaloser2005]

As long as we agree that I'm right.

I need to rush through some work so I can get ahead and then dink around later. I shall return.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by me, to Kit

It's nice to know at least one person who's on my side.


In other news, I woke up ridiculously sick this morning. I didn't sleep well the Night before last, so that didn't help. Anyway, it's doubtful I'll be around much toDay, but I'll try. Hopefully I'll feel better in a few hours (for instance, after killing a werewolf).

....

Oh, and whoever posts a snazzy vote count from yesterDay gets free cupcake snuggles.

And then later in the Day, I talk about said werewolf.

Originally Posted by me, to Boro

So, my sweet prince, why was EW killed rather than me or Kit or someone else? Theorize! Hypothesize! Lobotomize! (Well, maybe not the last one.)

Cupcake demands an explanation for this Night kill.

First of all, the phrasing in that second post. Not "why do you think EW was killed?" but instead asking "why was EW killed?".

I really hoped that someone would pick up on both my absolute phrasing and the use of my nick to separate fact posts from opinion/suspicion posts. I had intended to point right to my hint system by signing off on what turned out to be my last Day with no other message than the title of this post. I had the feeling Boro was onto me and that I was in danger, and I wanted to be sure that people could clearly see my dream reveals after my death. Unfortunately, I was very ill on Friday night and was in no condition to play Werewolf (hence my sudden vote).

Still, the fact that the wolves were able to make such cases for my dreams....


Also, man, did I mess up on Kath. Well played, bad wolf. Well played.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I really hoped that someone would pick up on both my absolute phrasing and the use of my nick to separate fact posts from opinion/suspicion posts.

Um... Sally, I'm sorry to have to say this, but that clue was just impossibly obscure– at least from the village's point of view.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Um... Sally, I'm sorry to have to say this, but that clue was just impossibly obscure– at least from the village's point of view.

And that's why I was so cross. I had intended to make it more clear that that was the hint system, and then....blankity blank werewolves. Of course I still hoped people would see how I asked Boro about the Night kill and perhaps make something of it, but as for the actual clue system? Alas, it was wasted, due mostly to a failure on my part to man up and actually point the village to what I'd done.

However, I am upset that the thing about Kitanna was brushed off so easily. It wasn't the village's fault on that score so much as a certain furry villain we know and love....

Boro, I may never speak to you again. (Call me!)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And that's why I was so cross. I had intended to make it more clear that that was the hint system, and then....blankity blank werewolves. Of course I still hoped people would see how I asked Boro about the Night kill and perhaps make something of it, but as for the actual clue system? Alas, it was wasted, due mostly to a failure on my part to man up and actually point the village to what I'd done.

Totally obscure indeed. Well, I think the point of the Seer is to post in the way that people don't understand your hints when you are alive, but in case you die and they start analysing your posts, then when they know you were the Seer, they should be able to, if possible, unambiguously identify your dreams. Especially Wolves, if there were any. Hints like the ones you used might be technically useable if you want to secretly tell people already when you are still alive. But from Day 2 at the least, the Seer is in grave danger of death, if only because of the numeric probability, so one should leave some trails for such case.

But nevermind. I still think you were far more successful than, for example, my Seer-attempts this far had been (I usually dream only of innocents who, on top of that, end up killed the same Night). And, if it consoles you, it was in fact the thing that you omitted Boro from your Day 2 "innocent people" list which lead me to start considering Boro as a suspect in the first place.

[Galadriel55]

I blame the chaos on the fact that both Nerwen and Kath voted on Day 1.

[Kath]

Definitely that Galadriel! I said we broke the world and look what happened.

I will also add that I finished Day 5 without being lynched. This is a rare thing indeed.

sally ... Boro is the ONLY person in the whole game who even half understood your clues I think. I mean, I know I'm bad at it at the best of times, but that was just mental (to quote Harry Potter rather than GoT).