Arda Cup Football 2011

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The ArdaCup.com Stats Report team regrets its failure to predict half of the quarterfinals results accurately. The team has done its best to analyse the stats, but somehow two wildcard teams have gone beyond what their numbers have shown so far. ArdaCup.com Stats Report will be taking the previous round's intangibles into account and do its best to ensure that it predicts the results of the remaining four games perfectly.

Doriath vs Angband

• Doriath Off > Angband Def
• Doriath Def = Angband Off

Pretty much a straightforward affair on this side of the bracket.

This is Doriath's first test against a quality defensive team, but the fortress of Morgoth has not been as solid as it seems. Angband has shut out The Downer, Tol Eressëa, and Eregion, true, but only The Downer could be considered offensively-oriented among those teams (and they've been a bunch of oddballs who have had more pressing concerns on their minds than the game at hand). When Angband fought against teams with firepower (like Hithlum and Anfauglith), they conceded two goals. Doriath is at the very least on the level of those two teams in offensive intensity, and they will similarly expose weaknesses in Morgoth's back line.

Doriath's defence, which has already been tested against Tirion and Himring in the group stage, has proven its worth in that match with Valinor, allowing just a single goal despite facing the best forward line-up of the tournament (9 goals in 5 games). Angband has up front Ancalagon and Thuringwethil (and also Tilion, who, curiously, has failed to show up so far), but Melian's girdle and Huan's keen goalkeeping, having already been tested against godly boots, seem up to the task of turning even their monstrous might away.

Doriath 2:1 Angband

Pelóri vs Tol-in-Gaurhoth

• Pelóri Off = Tol-in-Gaurhoth Def
• Pelóri Def = Tol-in-Gaurhoth Off

These were the wildcards we mentioned. These teams play a gear higher when faced against opponents of a certain calibre or affiliation, and that makes predicting their games a difficult affair at best. And since they are playing against each other, it requires a thorough scrutiny of their stats, their previous games, and their mentality for the upcoming game to ensure that our predictions are, if not accurately done, then at least pointing in the right direction.

First, we examine Manwë's motivation--perhaps it'll be there, considering that their opponents are baddies. As they have shown in the friendlies and in the tournament games, they have played much better against either teams of evil affiliation, like Angband or Misty Mts, or teams rebelling against what they deem is the proper authority on Arda (meaning themselves), like Valinor or Fëanor's Lothlórien. Pelóri's defence has already been tested against Valinor (allowing just a single goal), and their offence similarly tempered against Lothlórien (scoring two against Galadriel and Gandalf), so the ability is there. Will they use it to the fullest, though?

Tol-in-Gaurhoth, as we have pointed out in Report 7.5, had not faced quality opponents in the tournament--until their last match. They faced a Westernesse team that has always been on of the top three teams in the ArdaCup.com Stats Report Power Ranking, even back in the friendlies, and has always been in the top ten both offensively and defensively of the same ranking. The Westrons were considered one of the favourites to win it all, but such meant little against the Werewolves; they blunted Westernesse's attack (allowing only 1 goal and 4 shots on target to a team that averaged about 3 goals in 6 attempts on target), and they swept aside (literally, in that last play) the smothering defence of the Dúnedain. Although we doubt that such a tactic would work against the Powers themselves, the Werewolves have proven their cunning, and they may try to take advantage of some other weakness of the Valar. They might recall the Norbury-Valimar game from last season, and play as humans with sportsmanlike conduct, lulling the Ainur into a false sense of peace and then taking over the game with their athleticism.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth 2:1 Pelóri

[Galadriel55]

Doriath vs Angband – First Age repeated?

Pretty much yes, says reporter, except that in the First Age they took a round object out instead of putting one in. However, at that time Beren and Luthien have proven that Angband’s defense is not without cracks, and not impossible to break through.

Will Melian and Elwe risk sending their child and son-in-law into the thick of the Enemy’s clutches once again? No, says reporter. It is not to be forgotten that this year they are not forwards – one is a defender and another a midfielder. Instead, two brave men volunteered to do the work. Turin Turambar took the challenge upon himself, and his loyal friend Beleg would not be held behind. Turin wishes to prove that he is worthy of being on the same team as his kinsman Beren by scoring a goal or two against the mighty Ungoliant.

When Beren first did that, he lost a hand. What will be the cost of Turin’s daring? Turin laughed in response. “I am Turambar, Master of Fate!” he answered, “I have faced Glaurung before, and that Worm met his death! Ancalagon shall see that he is no match for me either!”

Another question raised is the behavior of Carcharoth during the match. Will he remain loyal to Doriath, or switch back to his old side and old ways? He and Huan got along fairly well throughout the tournament, but will facing his old friends make the wolf doubt his choice of sides?

All in all, though, Morgoth has made many enemies during the First Age. All of them will seek revenge. This will be a tough battle… erm, game.

[Nogrod]

Doriath
vs. Tirion 4-1
vs. Himring 3-0
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 4-0
vs. Minas Morgul 4-0
vs. Valinor 3-1

Doriath 5-0-0 18-2 21,2% 45(85) – 21(65) 90,5%

Angband
vs. Hithlum 4-2
vs. TheDowner 3-0
vs. Anfaughlith 2-2
vs. Tol Eressea 1-0
vs. Eregion 1-0

Angband 4-1-0 11-4 15,3% 34(72) – 22(61) 81,8%



Doriath vs. Angband

Doriath seems to be the sovereign team sailing for the gold this year. Every stat tells one so. So are there any reasons to doubt that?

One could look at the opponents they have faced. The tremendous number of goals Doriath has made can be seen not only as a result of their flashing forwards (which they do indeed have), but also as a consequence of them meeting only badly defending teams. Their last game against Valinor is a case in point: it was cool defending they kept the Valinor attacks at bay but the Valinor defences have not been the tightest ones either. But Angband will really put Doriath attack into the test. Looking at the teams they have faced it easy to say, for the first time. This time scoring three or four goals will not be like a walk in the park to them as Angband will be forcing them to really perform.

But how does it work the other way around then? Both offensive powerhouses Hithlum and Anfaughlith managed to score twice into Angband goal. Doriath is no lesser attacker than the two, so Doriath scores at least two goals?

But then again, looking at the opponents Angband has met we find both “crazy attack” teams (Hithlum, Downer, Anfaughlith) and “hedgehog-defense” teams (Tol Eressëa, Eregion), so actually relating their scoring and goals allowed becomes an entangled issue. Would Doriath had scored more against Tol Eressëa or Eregion? Would Anfaughlith or Hithlum have scored more against Doriath? How many goals Angband would have made against the opponents Doriath has faced?

Without needing to meet the two most qualified defending teams of the tournament Angband’s stats on scoring would be different indeed – and without needing to meet the two of the top offensive teams their stats on defense would be different as well.

So Doriath is not having an easy afternoon ahead of them. On the contrary: Morgoth will whip his team into their best game thus far and it most probably ends in a 2-2 draw. What happens then, that’s anybody’s guess…


~*~


Tol-In-Gaurhoth
vs. The Forest 3-0
vs. Nargothrond 3-0
vs. Mordor 3-1
vs. Barad-Dur 3-0
vs. Westernesse 2-1

T-I-G 5-0-0 14-2 16,5% 40(85) – 17(51) 88,2%

Pelori
vs. Beleriand 1-1
vs. Gondolin 2-1
vs. Valinor 2-1
vs Misty Mts. 2-0
vs. Lothlórien 2-1

Pelori 4-1-0 9-4 13,4% 29(67) – 21(54) 81%


Tol-In-Gaurhoth vs. Pelori

Here we have the familiar problem: the one team is a clear favourite due to the stats but then there are objections to be made: the fact that the other team is a Valinor team led by Manwë is not the smallest of those…

To be kind of rude, one could say that the T-I-G has only faced one really tough opponent (they beat Westernesse 2-1) whereas Pelori has met two (they beat both Valinor and Lothlórien 2-1). Of the other teams the two have met, it is quite clear Pelori has played the tougher teams than the T-I-G.

So the difference in the stats should be, if not totally ignored, put in brackets. T-I-G has scored more but against weaker opponents; they have admitted less goals but have only faced one attacking team with quality. Pelori in turn has scored less but against some really tough defenses and they have admitted a few more goals – against some attacking ingenuity.

And the fact that Manwë’s team always prevails with one goal (well against Misty Mts- with 2-0) makes one wonder. Somehow the stats just don’t seem to affect Manwë-driven teams.
But even these “outside the stats” speculations have their limits. Last year they scandalously lost to Norbury in the quarters and this year they started with a draw with the Beleriand as the opponent scored at the last minutes to make it even.

T-I-G will score one – and with luck two. Pelori will score one -and with luck two. What happens thereafter is anybody’s guess.

[the phantom]

All the peoples of Arda were awed by the 2010 debut of the Amon Hen Coliseum, built in secret by the Gondor Arda Cup Host Committee in return for a promise of hosting the semis and finals two consecutive years, with options to return to the site before the normal mandatory gap between hosting Arda Cup finals.

There was no question that The Coliseum was the largest venue in all of Arda, thanks largely to the magic of Amon Hen, the “hill of seeing”, which allowed the stadium to climb far higher than others so long as it went up the side of Amon Hen which was found to amplify the natural visionary capabilities of anyone upon it, and more so as one neared the pinnacle of the hill.

Because of this the stadium appeared extremely lopsided. The east quarter of the stadium overlooked the great falls of Rauros and seated around 20,000, while the north quarter hugged the shores of the lake and seated slightly more. But as the stadium ran to the south-southwest up the slopes of Amon Hen, the seats just piled higher and higher, and after two brand new additions this past offseason the total seating for the stadium was now in excess of 160,000!

But believe it or not the whopping size of the monstrous arena was not the number one thing that arrested the attention of critics, but rather it was the architecture. The stadium was a tribute to the history of football in Arda, featuring sections which expertly mimicked the architecture, décor, and adornments of various famous stadiums from the history of Arda. Any walkway, restroom, eatery, and entrance in a given section also mirrored the style, making visitors feel as if they were actually in a different stadium.

The initial construction featured sections from Valimar, Utumno, Tirion, Angband, Gondolin, Doriath, Numenor, Mordor, Mirkwood, and Rohan. The two new additions this year were Moria and The Shire. “They were on the list to be included with the initial construction,” said Gondor Arda Cup Host Committee chairman Meneldil, “But it just didn’t work out that way. We wished to have all peoples well represented in our sections, but we wanted them to be authentic, with craftsmen from the locations brought in to advise and oversee. The dwarves we wanted to bring in were busy with other projects such as Vinyamar, and we were worried that the Halflings would have let the cat out of the bag had we brought them in on it. As you know we were keen to keep the Coliseum a secret until the last possible moment, and Hobbits, well… their tongues have a habit of wagging- especially in a pub.”

“So instead of those two we added Mirkwood and Rohan, which we originally planned to add later.” When asked if there were more sections in the works, Meneldil said that there definitely were. “Oh yes, we already have a team from Alqualonde ready to start as soon as the finals are over, and we’re in talks with Gundabad as well. Sure, some may say that the Orcs already have Angband and Mordor, but we want to include something that is very uniquely Orcish.”

Meneldil also mentioned a desire for an Entish section in the future, but said that such a thing would be understandably slow in developing. Nargothrond however was a comparably quicker option, and an exploratory committee is currently debating the merits of other locations, such as Angmar, Rivendell, and Lothlorien.

But the stadium wasn’t the only thing around Amon Hen was expanding. There was also the infrastructure. There were a good number of inns, pubs, and rentable homes in a brand new town a short distance west of the stadium along the shores of the lake, and a good number of cabins farther along, or in the woods higher up on the slopes of the surrounding hills. It was the same last year, only this year there were more of them, as well as several permanent residents now that Gondor had opened the area to settlement. There was also a good deal of boating on the lake, and the marinas to accommodate it. A bit farther up the lake there were ski lodges. It was not the season for snow obviously, but the lodges had remained open to host guests and show off their facilities and runs, hoping that the visitors would return in the winter.

The docks beneath Rauros and the ingenious series of lifts that transported travelers up to lake-level had been improved as well. Specifically, the docks were larger, and a third lift path had been installed to allow for shorter waiting times. Additionally a winding nature trail had been constructed that wound around the west side of Amon Hen for anyone so inclined to enjoy a challenging day-long hike to their destination. All in all the committee had done all they could to ensure that the Amon Hen Coliseum would be recognized as the king of match locations.

[Nogrod]

Pelori vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth



Oromë: I’m getting done with you! You’re just parasites so just shut your mouths!

Phantomwolf: Now who’s a parasite?

Nogwolf: Yeah. Let us hear your version of this: we say we are fully capable of using our own minds and reaching for the goals we set ourselves – also the goal Manwë protects – but you then, you only come tied with lashes from both Manwë and Eru.

Lórien: Now what comes to your mind as the goals “you set yourselves”, where do they come from if not from me, and by implication through Ilúvatar himself?

Phantomwolf: So it is Ilúvatar himself who thus makes us desiring to be defiant in front of you “Master of Desire”? *smiles defiantly*

Oromë: Don’t listen to those double-tongued rhetoricians Irmo. They have no claim to truth as they are outsiders… just some odd third generation mimicking werewolves who don’t even belong to the Arda proper. Parasites, as I told you.

Nogwolf: Now you forget where all this started. I only said we have a stronger will to win this game and the stamina to do it. And that is true. You guys have just lazed on your own reality thinking how marvelous you are, but we have been living in a world reduced from magic and any great plans – and we have learned to gain what we crave for ourselves.

Lórien: But you’re no part of Eru’s plan. You’re just an off-shoot of the legendarium, having no part in the story – like my colleague says, you’re just parasites trailing this history unfolding on a Website dedicated to us. The prophet that was the Prof, and he never mentioned you when he told the stories – you have clinged into this yourselves with no authorization at all by the forces above you, like us, at all.

Nogwolf: And therefore we’re also free from the constraints of fate that tie you into the story written by others but not yourselves, eh? *gives a snug smile*

Phantomwolf: And thus able to break your circle of winning like Eru wishes you to do every time you play against a team that is under his control… *triumphs*

Oromë: Now that is blasphemy! We are pretty much able to do things ourselves and Eru doesn’t need to follow our footsteps all the time. Just quit that like now until you annoy me for good.

Nogwolf: As you wish sir.

Phantomwolf: No offense, sir… but we will win.


So here we were live in the press-conference, sorry to have started the covering only after the discussion gathered some heat as it went off somewhat prematurely and the AKM microphones were not set until the row was already heated. But one can get the tone of the discussion even from that short exchange of views.


~*~

The huge crowds at Amon Hen Colosseum were having great problems with their loyalties. There were no warm feelings towards the T-I-G team as they were largely considered kind of outsiders, but then again many had misgivings toward the Pelori team after all that happened in the West once again this year. The Angband and Mordor fans cheered for T-I-G just because it was opposing the Valar in the game, and the Teleri and other Western elves, and most of the Maiar, naturally supported Pelori; but almost all others had problems in choosing a side. The T-I-G were darn good at playing the ball, but they were still odd outsiders, but how could they back these arrogant Valar who were shying away at nothing to keep their West “clean”?

Tol-In-Gaurhoth had it’s own fans at the Arena for sure, and even if the gang was small it made a lot of noise. Morthoron was mocking anything he could catch a glimpse of, Rikae was having a guitar and she played it like a mad Jimmy Hendrix – and the others led by Mac joined the chorus on “All along the Wathctower” – “Tol-In-Gaurhoth!” – with Pitchwife doing the add-on every time with his baritone voice. Fea and Lhuna were making the cheer-leading, forcing the willful eyes of the nearest male spectators to stare at them more their wives would have liked… while Morm and Rune looked after the security of the ladies looking grimly at anyone stalking them too long.

And a kind of a fuzz was created when The ‘Downer players and their few fans appeared to the stadium led by The Saucepan Man banging the beat with his pans – joining the T-I-G fans they made even more noise than before – to the annoyance to any decent football audiences.

But most of the crowds had decided to cheer to both teams, at least to begin with – and thus both sides got a thunderous welcome to the pitch – even if it wasn’t the most enthusiastic welcome ever given, but just having 160 000 people making a noise makes anything thunderous.

As the game kicked off T-I-G took the initiative and started rolling their attacks towards the Pelori goal one after another – jumping over the “reconnaissance-period” from the first minutes of the game T-I-G clearly wished to surprise the Pelori team – and they were seriously after a goal from the very first minutes. But Pelori defenses were alert from the beginning as well and most of the shots T-I-G managed to make went off the target, but it clearly looked like the outsiders were calling the shots in the beginning – until they shifted their play and fell back a little to ease their burden. With T-I-G leaving more room to the middle-field Pelori started having some quite nice chances as well and the game became more even – and after the first rush by T-I-G it seemed that now even they had fell back to testing their opponent.

But even if both teams were mainly trying to look for any weaknesses on each other’s defense while trying to keep their own goal guarded, there were some quality performances on both sides at the last half of the first period.

After a long build-up Oromë ended up near the corner flag but managed to dribble Nilpwolf aside for a fleeting moment to center the ball – and Varda made a nice diving header for it only to be caught by Shastawolf.

Some five minutes later Galadwolf robbed the ball from Vana in mid-field and sent it fast forwards to Gwathwolf who had anticipated the change of direction and ran for it like mad ridding himself from Gwaihir and Nahar: and he was one on one with Manwë and was just about to shoot when the referee whistled it off-side. T-I-G protested loudly for the late whistle but the referee kept his mind with it.

Shastawolf was forced into a real test at 42nd minute when Eönwë cut the T-I-G defenses square and went after a long ball from Nienna in a counter-attack and faced Shasta alone from thirty meters – running towards him. Eönwë faked a shot at around the box when he saw Shasta, who had ran to meet him, diving for it just a few meters before his eyes… Eönwë made a quick turn right and was looking for a foothold to shoot when Shasta knocked the ball off with his fist and Eönwë’s kick hit Shasta to his right arm. Shasta was howling in pain and the first aid unit was summoned to the field.

The T-I-G players were calling for a straight red card for Eönwë from intentionally trying to injure their goalie but the referee stood firm and a free kick was all T-I-G earned from the situation.

After Shasta was up again and returning to his goal something quite unexpected happened. T-I-G forwards and midfielders started jogging forwards while the Pelori team jogged backwards to lower their field. Manwë had come far away from his goal, actually to mid-field, to follow the injury-situation and was slowly backing towards his posts. And here Phantomwolf saw an opportunity. So instead of jogging forwards to the midfield he ran to the ball whispering something to Skipwolf who had just settled the ball down for the free-kick a meter forwards from the edge of the T-I-G box. He walked a few steps towards Shasta and suddenly turned around, took a quick run of a few steps and sent the ball forwards high into the air bringing all his force to the shot.

Manwë was walking briskly towards his goal with the lowest defenders by his side. They were about thirty meters from the goal when the cry stopped him. “Run!”, it was Varda calling him from the other end of the pitch. Manwë turned around and glanced upwards only to see the ball flying some ten meters over him and falling dangerously fast… towards the goal! Gwaihir had noticed the situation as well and waved it’s giant wings to try and cut the flight of the ball while Manwë dashed towards the goal trying to prevent the obvious from happening. But there was nothing they could do as the ball flew in the air and went into the Pelori goal right in the middle when Gwaihir had just lifted off the ground and Manwë was still about twenty meters away from his goal.

Even the staunchest Valar-fans had to admit that was both a brilliant idea and a brilliant execution of that idea. The few T-I-G supporters at the colosseum went just mad with joy: they were leading 1-0 just a minute before the half-time! With most of the 160 000 spectators making a standing ovation to the Phantomwolf even he did look a bit embarrassed about the roar and thunder the applauses created.


Pelori came to the second half composed and effective. Their fast passing game created some nice opportunities in the beginning of the half but after T-I-G adjusted their game to match that of Pelori the game evened again. It was anybody’s game now as without some masterful performances by both goalies either team could have added to the scoreboard.

8 minutes into the second half Nerwolf showed some flare releasing herself from both Namo and Gwaihir – but doing that she had drifted to such a narrow angle Manwë looked confident to deny the shot. But Nerwolf put such a swerve into the shot Manwë wasn’t able to hold it and it slipped from his fingers. Gwathwolf was there for the rebound but his shot missed the goal totally, from ten meters away. Gwath fell on his knees and ripped his hair in agony and promised he would get back up again only after someone poured some ash over his head.

12 minutes into the second half Pelori was pressing on letting the passes mess the T-I-G defenses as well as they could – and Eönwë did find a line of passing between Sallywolf and Nilpwolf. Before the two had time to turn around Varda was already there reaching for the ball. Kuruwolf saw what was happening and slid towards the ball hoping to cut the imminent shot coming… but Varda was one mental step ahead and instead of shooting he just flipped the ball left to where Eönwë had rushed. The crowds went “uhhh!” seeing Varda surrounded by three defenders and Eönwë getting the ball to his feet ten meters to their left – and all alone!

And Eönwë’s shot was a real beauty: accurate and powerful, heading towards the top right corner of the goal. But somehow Shastawolf managed to make an impossible looking dive reaching to get his fingertips in the way enough to change the trajectory of the ball so that it hit the post and flew over the goal.

17 minutes into the half T-I-G was pressing for a change and got a throw-in from near the right corner-flag. Inzilwolf threw the ball far to the left side of the pitch (no one thought someone could throw the ball that far) – and as the defenses turned towards the left side of the pitch and started orienting to the new situation Phantomwolf crossed the ball diagonally back to the right – just where Nogwolf had made a sudden run into the middle. Nogwolf took the ball down with his chest, leaped forwards beside Namo and hammered the ball in with a mighty cannon leaving Manwë no chance to even begin guessing where the shot would land.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth had claimed a two goal lead with little less than half an hour of the game left. The crowds were totally baffled and confused – except for the T-I-G and ‘Downer fans who were making such a noise it was probably heard at the sea in the end. Coming from behind hadn’t been exactly Pelori’s strongpoint in this tournament as they had always more or less had the control of the game in their hands – so what would they do now?

To the disappointment of most Pelori fans it first looked like Manwë wasn’t going to surprise them with radical tactical changes to try and turn the tables, but little by little they started coming forwards with more energy. But T-I-G let them drink their very own medicine retreating into a kind of suffocating defense even Manwë would have been proud of if it was his team doing it.

Only with pure immortal willpower were the Valar able to push through the T-I-G defenses but even then they were forced into off-side positions (T-I-G’s off-side trap worked ingeniously in the end giving T-I-G five free-kicks from off-sides – all from situations which might have ended up in a goal to Pelori had the trap not worked), driven to the edges and corners of the field, denied decent shooting opportunities… It seemed the T-I-G defenses were all around and when Manwë dared not to bring all his team up to attack Pelori was practically playing shorthanded all the time.

So Pelori put all their hopes into the free-kicks – and with T-I-G’s abrasive game (when needed, the wolves bit, scratched, tackled, howled and basically played every dirty trick in the menu) to distract and annoy the opponent) they got a host of them from various positions. But Shastawolf was firm and took couple of important saves in the end.

And finally the referee blew his whistle and the game was over. And it was game-over for team Pelori! T-I-G was marching to the finals, shutting out Pelori and scoring two against the Valar! That, one could say, was a piece of Arda’s football history.


~*~

In the post-game press conference Manwë was not forthcoming and actually answered every question with “no comments”, was it a question about their feelings, the causes of their loss, the speculation about the re-organisation of the Arda Cup, especially as it came to Valar or playing the games in the Blessed Realm.

T-I-G representative never appeared to the press conference as the whole team had jumped up to the stands and joined their fans there starting a party of their own straight after the final whistle. When an hour later some Stadion officials were kindly asking them to move their parties maybe to some other location as they would close the colosseum for the night, the werewolves showed them their teeth and warned that anyone suggesting the finalists couldn’t party in the stadium witnessing their glory would get torn into pieces. Understandably, they were allowed to have their party.



Pelori 0-2 Tol In Gaurhoth
tot shots 12-17
on target 5-5
GOALS:
*44, 0-1 PhantomWolf
*62, 0-2 NogWolf (GwathWolf)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Pelori- Vana, Nahar, Namo, Varda
*TIG- NilpWolf, SallyWolf


T-I-G to the final, Pelori to the Bronze-game.

[Pitchwife]

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!! !!!!!!!!!!
GO TOL-IN-GAURHOTH! GO!

And

Originally Posted by Nog

the others led by Mac joined the chorus on “All along the Watchtower” – “Tol-In-Gaurhoth!”

if my plane wasn't flying in five hours, I'd so totally do a song parody now. Awesome!

[Nerwen]

YES! I knew we'd make it!