Arda Cup Football 2011

[Boromir88]

GROUP - ROUND 3 PREDICTION
BoroLXXXIII, Two Towers Network

Oh my, that was quite nearly a perfect round. The scores were still not up to par, (closer than in round 1 though) but 15 of 16 outcomes predicted correctly. The only fault was Misty Mts wound up with a draw against Anduin, instead of besting them. I wish I had this same amount of success picking phantasy players. I swapped out Araphor for Eorl, and Legolas for the B-W. What was I thinking!? Hopefully, I don't peak too soon, because if I falter with my predictions, than I'm going to be in big time trouble.

Fortunately my predictions never fall apart, but as the cream rises to the top and they start playing eachother in a vicious and spectacular final 16, win or go home playoffs, the games will get harder and harder to call.

(All the best color commentary to be editted back in tomorrow. I decided to try to tempt the magic internet pixies, and as I had the post typed and ready, klapooey, connection went dead. )

Group A
Doriath vs Shire-Bree United - No contest here, Doriath will be well on their way to sweeping the group in the most dominating fashion ever seen. It would be silly to not have a few Doriath players on your teams, but the questions are which ones? If you're near the leaders and wish to stay in striking distance, you're probably better off taking Turin, before falling behind further. However, if you're already a good distance behind and looking to catch up, it doesn't do much good adding the same players the leaders have. So, it may be better taking some of the Doriath players not picked up as much, like Beleg, Eol, and Melian. You may fall behind more if Turin keeps up on his rampage, but you're at a point where you have to think about catching up, if it's possible (and it is still possible ).
Doriath wins 3-0

Himring vs Tirion - One of the premier games of the round, winner moves on, loser goes home. A draw and Tirion advances, although this game won't end in a draw, simply because Maedhros, Fingon and Maglor won't allow it. They will come out determined to leave it all out on the pitch, as we like to call it. Save nothing let, and leave with no regrets. Question is will the treacherous Easterlings be playing with the same passion or flat out bail on Maedhros in the face of adversity as they have done so many times before?
Tirion wins 3-2

Group B
Anduin vs Esgaroth - Esgaroth has been atrocious yes, but I think they match up better with Anduin and not the rough/heavy-hitting Sauron and Saruman run teams. Anduin will certainly not blow out the scoreboard against anyone. So like this game will end 2-1 in favor of Anduin, and even with the win it won't be enough goals to knock off Misty Mts. But, I'm actually going to go out on a bit of a limb and say Esgaroth gets the draw. They have to be better than what they've shown so far, right? I mean really, they have to.
Draw 2-2

Misty Mts vs Wilderland - Another big game with a lot of factors on the line. Although, I think the hype and competitiveness will be over-sold on ths one by Sauron and Saruman. It will overhyped for publicity and profit purposes, but won't be much of a contest to be honest. 1 Balrog against 1 dragon and I would take the Balrog. But 1 Balrog and a gimmick wizard against 2 dragons, 2 wizards, and Sauron? Gimme Wilderland.
Wilderland wins 3-1

Group C
Hithlum vs The Downer - The Downer has shown absolutely zilch interest in actually playing the game. How they got a spot in the final 32 is beyond me, despite how interesting and whacko their characters are. And despite this, Hithlum's defense is so porous, without even trying The Downer can put up 2 goals on them. Problem is, Hithlum can score more, even in a game that means nothing.
Hithlum wins 4-2

Angband vs Angfauglith - Now this is a game which can not be over-hyped, it is going to be one of the great battles of the ages. Could very well be a championship caliber game, and we get to see it in group play! Statistics and gameplay all point to Angband winning this one, but I've picked Angfauglith to win the whole thing, and this group. And I'm sticking to that until they're eliminated!
Angfauglith wins 2-1

Group D
Barad-dur vs Gondor - This match will impact how the teams play in the 2nd match a lot. Everything shows that these 2 will fight to a draw, which means Eriador can relax a bit and just not lose by more than 2 goals to Eregion. However, I can't see what Eorl's and Eldacar's problems are, they have been multiple goal-scorers in every Arda Cup, except NOW. It's all about what you've done for me now, and I suspect these boys know that. They're due for a break out game, or at least they better have one NOW, or they'll be shipped out of Gondor double-quick.
Gondor wins 3-2

Eregion vs Eriador - This one could end in a draw, but that will do Eriador nothing if either Gondor or Barad-dur win. Even against the Vala defenses, these Eriador players know how to score, and I think they're just good enough to finally beat the impenetrable wall of Elrond. They can't do it twice though, I'm not sure anyone is that good. Eriador only has themselves to blame if they don't advance though, should have taken care of business against Barad-dur or Gondor and they didn't.
Eregion wins 2-1

Group E
Mordor vs Tol In Gaurhoth - All the questions are going to be will the wolves allow the orcs and Mordorians to go through with them over the more annoying Bombadillians? Wolves won't care about this game, but they won't care about orc feelings either.
TIG wins 2-0

Nargothrond vs The Forest - This one is hard to say, because so many times before when I've picked Bombadil's team and thought his star quality is enough to get into the playoffs, he skips off to a field of lilies. I think this year might be slightly different, if only for the fact that the Ents are good defenders and shutdown when riled from slumber, plus Nargothrond is a joke.
The Forest wins 3-2

Group F
Mithrim vs Tol Eressea - Not much to see here, move along, eventhough this is an important game to win for Tol Eressea. I can't see how Mithrim can score on Ulmo's defense, and Ulmo will probably get the lone goal of the match too.
Tol Eressea wins 1-0

Numenor vs Westernesse - I don't care what AKM wants to speculate, Wesernesse will not tank this game to allow Numenor to qualify. They forget these Westernesse players met in secret to form their own super-team, combining the best of Numenor with the best of Gondor. Numenor's not going to take being cast aways by the primadonna's lightly, they'll come out wanting to beat them. But all that means is Westernesse will put the Numenoreans in their rightful place, as spit-shiners for Ar-Pharazon's golden boots.
Westernesse wins 2-0

Group G
Beleriand vs Gondolin - No surprising comeback in store for the scrappy Beleriand team. Their draw against Pelori was an awesome story, but they've since come back to earth and now everyone's waiting when Gondolin will actually come to play at all?
Draw 1-1

Pelori vs Valinor - Here's an interesting one, considering all the storylines with Tulkas running off to forget his own team. Will Manwe put his rebelling brother in his place? Not likely. As long as you're not Morgoth or Feanor, Manwe basically stays hands off and lets members of his club do what they want. In this case Tulkas' aggressiviness will always win out over the boring conservativeness of Manwe, at least in the game of soccer, not always the case in the fate of Arda.
Valinor wins 2-1

Group H
Minas Morgul vs Minas Tirith - Minas Tirith will play better than what they'v shown, because there is no love loss when playing Minas Morgul. But talents not there to seriously make this a thrilling rivalry, sorry but it's not. Where is the Witch-King? Where is Castamir? And where is the Queen? Are all fair questions and quite right. They'll have a break out performance against their weaker foes.
Minas Morgul wins 4-2

Dunharrow vs Lothlorien - Dunharrow's given a much better effort than the Helm's Deep teams of the past, but sorry boys, not good enough to beat Lothlorien and advance. Not with Feanor dominating as he is, and Legolas and Boromir adding their contributions. Not with the defense playing as good as it is, and Galadriel truly raising her performances. Keep playing like this, and the Golden Woods may finally have a real winner to brag about.
Lothlorien wins 2-0

[Nogrod]

Group E

Mordor vs Tol In Gaurhoth

The werevolwes are already through to the play-offs and they have been playing a bit sloppy at times when there is nothing at stake for them; but on the other hand one would think Mordor would be an opponent they’d like to beat just for the fun of it. If they get into it there is no way Mordor will prevail, so in the end it’s the attitude of the T-I-G that will decide the outcome of the match.

Mordor on the other hand needs points desperately to qualify and they will give their best. Is it enough against the werewolves is another question entirely.

Starting from same points before the final round with The Forest who have a lot weaker opponent against them doesn’t promise well for the Mordor side, but it is clear they will fight.

Nargothrond vs The Forest

Nargothrond has been unquestioningly one of the major disappointments this year. Somehow Beor the Old, Glaurung and Finduilas have not been able to pull their act together – which looked at from certain angle is not that surprising. But against such an unpredictable team as The Forest one can’t throw away the chance they might surprise. The stress is on the word ‘might’.

The Forest has a decent chance to qualify. Their goal difference is two goals minus whereas Mordor is at even, but T-I-G has won both their earlier matches 3-0, and in that case even a draw would do for them.

The question is then more or less only about Tom Bombadill and his willingness to get interested in the game. As a positive sign one could note that Bombadill stayed quite focused in their earlier game against Mordor gathering a nice 2+1. With Tom leading his team the ents can play decent football and Thranduil, Saeros and River Woman can actually score as well.

The AKM would not wish to bet on the outcome of this group, but if it was forced to do that, it would bet on The Forest to qualify.


Group F

Mithrim vs Tol Eressëa

Tuor and his bunch of men have only theoretical chances of qualifying as they would have to win Tol Eressëa with three goals. Seeing that Númenor wasn’t able to score against Tol Eressëa at all and even Westernesse had to settle with only two goals against them it looks like a mission impossible, not the least because Mithrim has managed to score only one goal in their first two matches themselves. So very much an uphill struggle for Mithrim.

Tol Eressëa has one of the most solid defences of the tournament and even if Uinen and Elwing have been all but flashing, they should be able to score once or twice to win the match comfortably. With a win from Mithrim they would be strong candidates to qualify with a win over Númenor in their pocket as well. But it will not be in their hands.

Númenor vs Westernesse

Practically Númenor needs to win Westernesse to qualify as the chances for Tol Eressëa to fall against Mithrim are slim indeed. But is there any believable chance they could do it? An honest answer to the question would have to be no. But this time there is a slight “but” involved in the form of brotherly love.

If Westernesse lets Númenor win the game they could help team Númenor to qualify over Tol Eressëa. Now Ar Pharazôn denied that possibility with quite strong words, but then again Elros is the captain of the team and calls the shots.

Even if the AKM wants to remind readers of this possibility, it would not be betting on it itself. Even if the Westernesse players from Númenor loved their brothers and sisters and held the glory of Númenor dear, it’s hard to see them acting unsportsmanlikely like that – or willing to lose to anyone in the first place, even to their kin.


Group G

Beleriand vs Gondolin

The air of group G has been quite bitter after the scandal of the Nogrodian dwarves and it is extremely hard to predict what will follow. If Valinor allows Pelori even one point it will be totally insignificant what happens in the match between Beleriand and Gondolin. But that will not be known to the teams as they will be meeting before the Valier-teams match-up.

If both teams would play it seriously and with full effort one would need to say it would be a very close game to call with Beleriand maybe slight favourites.

But a few “buts” enter here. First of all Gondolin has no chance to qualify any more, how will that affect their game? Secondly, it seems at least some folks at Gondolin feel for the team Beleriand and are quite upset with the way the issue with the dwarves has been handled; so would they go as far as to help Beleriand to give it back to Manwë by losing big-time as it doesn’t matter to them success-wise? And would that happen, would it in turn affect the late game and how team Valinor plays?

Be that as it may, one of the big question around this year’s tournament still is, what went wrong in Gondolin? They lost a lot of the best talent there is but gained more or less as much. Still they have lost their chances of qualifying already after the two first rounds of group-play. Many fingers do point towards Turgon – some even say it’s not the first time Turgon has been fore-warned and he has not paid heed to the imminent disaster…

Pelori vs Valinor

Many say Manwë’s teams play the dull and opponent-friendly game caring more about defense than offense – and more about good relations between them and the opponents than going for it big time. And this year’s tournament seems to have proven those many right once again. In the friendlies they won every match they played – with one goal difference!

And they have continued that strategy also in the group-phase – although Beleriand managed a last minute equaliser messing it up one time. So the question becomes, how good they really are, can they challenge the very strong-looking Valinor side if the competition will be real? Or is Manwë planning to compensate the Belerianders for the wrong-doing he deemed necessary?

But as said in the earlier review, Pelori needs only one point to qualify which means they need a draw – unless Beleriand doesn’t win with at least two goals, which they will know when their game begins…

Even if the issue has been speculated here and there, it is hard to see Tulkas giving in an inch to help his brother to qualify. He set up his team to show he liked different football and the game between the two should be the showcase for him to hammer it in his way is the better one.

So it’s up to how good and how willing the Pelori actually are.


Group H

Minas Morgul vs Minas Tirith

Minas Morgul needs only to beat the weakest side of the group to make their qualification most probable. And the bigger numbers they score, the more probable the qualification (the chance of Dunharrow to beat Lothlórien is relatively non-existent, but in case that would happen the probability of them beating lady Galadriel’s team big time is more or less zero). So expect Minas Morgul to go for scoring, even if that hasn’t been their strongest weapon thus far.

There is one big question that is on everybody’s lips when speaking of team Minas Morgul, and that is, what has happened to the Witch King? He has been one of the most effective scorers every year thus far, and he hasn’t always had a great host of talent around him to score by himself. But somehow he is not playing up to his level. Nowhere near!

Some claim he has said feeling a bit thin lately, but some others claim he’s just been taking it easy the first two matches and will blast a hat-trick against Minas Tirith – would there be a better team against which to wake up for him?

If the supporters of the Minas Tirith team are counted off, it’s hard to see any sane person betting on them on this match (whether Minas Tirith supporters can be said to be a sane bunch in the first place is another matter we will not dwell into here). Eomer and Faramir haven’t gotten anything done and Eowyn has made herself noticed only with two yellow cards.

Dunharrow vs Lothlórien

Dunharrow and Lothlórien were both real disappointments during the friendlies but have shown a bit more effective side of their teams in the group-play. But there is a marked difference in the quality of the teams still. The battlehardened Rohanians have shown some stamina but less flair. Sadly, even if lady Galadriel could pity them Fëanor will not.

What comes to Lothlórien, it is interesting to see that after all that row during the friendlies they have really pulled themselves together in the group phase. The 3-0 win over Minas Tirith was quite promising indeed, and Legolas is just hot! If Fëanor finds his silmaril-boot, they could seriously talk about being competitive semifinalists.

And it’s not only that the team has started working better, but Galadriel has also shown – after a few disappointing years – that she is a quality keeper who can win games.

So it’s looking bright for Lothlórien and less so for Dunharrow.

[Nogrod]

The AKM has collected a few stats for you to enjoy and to pay heed to...



The most effective scoring teams = percentage of (goals made / shots overall)

Angband 22,6% (7/31)
Anfaughlith 21,9% (7/32)
Doriath 21,2% (7/33)
Westernesse 20,7% (6/29)
Hithlum 20% (5/25)

The worst scoring teams = percentage of (goals made / shots overall)

Esgaroth 0% (0/18)
Shire-Bree Utd. 3,7% (1/27)
Nargothrond 5% (1/20)
The Downer 5% (1/20)
Minas Tirith 5,3% (1/19)



The shooters = shots on goal (shots overall)

Doriath 19(33)
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 16(33)
Wilderland 16(33)
Anfaughlith 16(32)

The worst to shoot = shots on goal (shots overall)

Mithrim 6(15)
Esgaroth 6(18)
The Downer 6(20)
Tol Eressëa 7(15)
Gondolin 7(18)
Nargothrond 7(20)



The tightest defenses = shots on goal allowed (shots overall allowed)

Westernesse 6(14)
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 6(16)
Wilderland 6(17)
Númenor 7(16)
Lothórien 7(17)
Pelori 7(18)

The weakest defenses = shots on goal allowed (shots overall allowed)

Hithlum 18(36)
Tirion 16(34)
Mithrim 15(30)
Shire-Bree Utd. 15(28)
Anduin 14(27)



Best goalies = saving percentage (goals allowed / total shots against)

Elrond of Eregion 100% (0/12)
Shastawolf of Tol-In-Gaurhoth 100% (0/6)
Tar Atanamir of Westernesse 100% (0/6)
Huan of Doriath 90% (1/10)
Caradhras of Misty Mts. 87,5% (1/8)
Galadriel of Lothlórien 85,7% (1/7)

Worst goalies = saving percentage (goals allowed / total shots against)

Brand of Esgaroth 46,2% (7/13)
Huor of Anfaughlith 50% (4/8)
Butterbur of Shire-Bree Utd. 53,3% (7/15)
King Bus of The Downer 53,8% (6/13)
Imlach of Hithlum 55,6% (8/18)