Arda Cup Football 2011

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Standings:



(1) secured first seed
(2) secured second seed
(q) qualified for the knockout stage; seeding undetermined
(x) eliminated

Power Ranking:



Greatest gain:

• +16 Himring
• +15 Minas Morgul
• +14 Dunharrow
• +12 Lothlórien

Greatest loss:

• -14 The Downer
• -13 Beleriand
• -11 Gondor
• -9 Gondolin

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking--the lower the aggregate, the higher the rank. Ties are broken by a) win-draw-loss-record; b) goal differential; and c) goals scored.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; b) greater number of shots made; and c) lowest aggregate of defensive ranking of the other three teams in the group.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; b) least amount of shots allowed; and c) lowest aggregate of offensive ranking of the other three teams in the group.

Phantasy Numbers:

GOALS + ASSISTS
3+2
Túrin (Doriath)

3+0
Ancalagon (Angband)
Hador (Hithlum)
Arien (Valinor)

2+3
Maeglin (Anfauglith)

2+1
Thuringwethil (Angband)
Gothmog (Anfauglith)
Curufin (Hithlum)
Glorfindel (Eregion)
Elros (Westernesse)
Legolas (Lothlórien)
Bombadil (The Forest)

2+0
Azog (Misty Mts)
Smaug (Wilderland)
Scatha (Wliderland)
Aragorn (Eriador)
Brytta (Dunharrow)
NerWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Húrin (Doriath)

1+2
Sauron (Wilderland)
Fëanor (Lothlórien)
Míriel (Valinor)

0+3
Beleg (Doriath)

GOALKEEPER - SAVES
12 saves
1. Elrond (Eregion) 12/12 - 100.0%

11 saves
2. Fram (Anduin) 11/14 - 78.6%
3. Orodreth (Tirion) 11/16 - 68.8%

10 saves
4. Aldor (Dunharrow) 10/13 - 76.9%
5. Imlach (Hithlum) 10/18 - 55.6%

9 saves
6. Huan (Doriath) 9/10 - 90.0%
7. Ohtar (Barad-dûr) 9/13 - 69.2%
8. Tuor (Mithrim) 9/15 - 60.0%

GOALKEEPER - SAVE %
100.0%
1. Elrond (Eregion) - 12/12
2. ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) - 6/6
3. Tar-Atanamir (Westernesse) - 6/6
.
4. Huan (Doriath) 9/10 - 90/0%
5. Caradhras (Misty Mts) 7/8 - 87.5%
6. Galadriel (Lothlórien) 6/7 - 85.7%
7. Grimbeorn (Wilderland) 5/6 - 83.3%
8. Ungoliant (Angband) 8/10 - 80.0%

YELLOW CARDS
2 yellow cards
Amrod (Himring)
NilpWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Orophin (Anduin)
Durin (Anduin)
Thorin (Esgaroth)
Great Goblin (Misty Mts)
Scatha (Wilderland)
Balrog #4 (Anfauglith)
Azaghâl (Anfauglith)
Nazgûl #1 (Barad-dûr)
Elrohir (Eregion)
Tom (Eriador)
Skinbark (The Forest)
GaladWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Telchar (Beleriand)
Galdor (Gondolin)
Castamir (Minas Morgul)
Éowyn (Minas Tirith)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group A
Match of interest: Himring vs Tirion

The fight for second place of this group. Both have a goal difference of zero, but if they tie, Tirion goes through with more goals scored. Tirion is better offensively (9th compared to Himring's 16th) but Himring is better defensively (14th vs 27th for Tirion). Himring is ranked higher over-all in the ArdaCup.com Power Ranking (13th vs 18th for Tirion). Aredhel (Tirion) have been in all three Arda Cup finals games, winning two of them, but Fingon and Maedhros (Himring) have been finalists twice already, with Maedhros winning once.

Phantasy match: Doriath vs Shire-Bree United

Shire-Bree United will most likely get shut out, and Doriath might do target practice in SBU's side of the pitch. And since Doriath's already qualified (and poised to face Minas Morgul in the Round of 16), it's a good investment to have Doriath players in your team.

Group B
Match of interest: Wilderland vs Misty Mts

Misty Mts might still end up missing the next round, their impressive performance to date notwithstanding. Both are fairly strong defensive teams (Wilderland's 4th, Misty Mts 6th), but Wilderland has a stronger attack (4th vs 13th for Misty Mts).

Phantasy match: Anduin vs Esgaroth

Esgaroth has one of the weakest defences in the whole tourney, and Anduin has already scored a goal against the resilient Misty Mts defence. Anduin might not make it to the knock-out stage--and even if they do, don't expect them to go far, especially since they'd be up against one of the Blessed Realm teams. Still, if you have a star to spare, Beorn (Anduin) just might light up the score chart.

Group C
Match of interest: Angband vs Anfauglith

Two strong offensive teams (Anfauglith's 2nd, Angband 3rd) vying for the top spot of the group (and avoiding a date with cup contender Westernesse for the next round). Maeglin (Anfauglith) and Ancalagon (Angband) are beasts on the attack, and Thuringwethil (Angband) and Gothmog (Anfauglith) are not far behind them. Almost half of Anfauglith's team were from last year's championship team, and Fingolfin has been in all Arda Cup finals matches.

Phantasy match:

For more secure slots, get any of the scorers from Angband/Anfauglith. In the other match, The Downer's porous defences means Hithlum's potent attack (ranked 10th) is likely to do big damage, but since they've already been eliminated, you'll have to replace them once the next round comes.

Group D
Match of interest: Barad-dûr vs Gondor

This could very well be the battle for 2nd place in this group. Both teams are almost evenly matched (Gondor is ranked just one notch higher in offence, defence, and over-all), so a draw is likely, which means Eriador still has a shot at 2nd, provided Eregion doesn't run them over, and if Barad-dûr and Gondor don't make a lot of goals against each other.

Phantasy match:

There's some risk in grabbing Eregion's defensive line-up for this round, since Eriador will do its best not to be shut out. However, Elrond (Eregion) is still a wall; and since they'll most likely meet The Forest in the next round), Eregion picks are safe picks for at least two more rounds.

Group E
Match of interest: The Forest vs Nargothrond

This is The Forest's chance to make it to the next round, and there's hardly any better chance to be offered to them: Nargothrond is dismal in the pitch (1 goal made, 5 goals allowed even in this weak group). But The Forest's defence is not up to snuff, so a rampaging Glaurung (Nargothrond) may still make a contest out of this.

Phantasy match: Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs Mordor

A TiG shut-out of Mordor is likely, and TiG goals more so. Tol-in-Gaurhoth will face the 2nd of Group D (Gondor, Barad-dûr, or Eriador) in the next round. They're unlikely to lose to any of them, so TiG players in your phantasy line-up are a safe long-term investment.

Group F
Match of interest/Phantasy match:

Allegations of possible match-fixing notwithstanding, we'll almost certainly see Westernesse and Tol Eressëa winning their matches and walking out of this group. Both teams would most probably hold their opponents to zero goals, and Westernesse shooters would not be denied. More Westernesse, less Tol Eressëa, though, since Westernesse is more likely to go further into the tourney, despite their impending match-up against the 2nd of C (Angband or Anfauglith).

Group G
Match of interest/Phantasy match: Pelóri vs Valinor

The battle for this group's 1st seed (and not having to meet Wilderland in the next round), this match will be one to watch. Valinor's sizzling attack is not likely to be shut out by even the Mountains of Defence. Pelóri is more likely to be shut out, but probably not. Pelóri still might not make it to the next round, so this is a crucial match for them--win, or at least don't get slaughtered (and hope Beleriand doesn't decimate Gondolin).

Group H
Match of interest/Phantasy match:

Lothlórien would not let Dunharrow score. Minas Morgul will take a lot of shots, and the anemic Minas Tirith defences would be unlikely to hold them back. Minas Morgul might even shut the Tower of Guard out.

[Nogrod]

The final round of group play is approaching! Here are the latest takes on the last games by the AKM


Group A

Doriath vs Shire-Bree United

Doriath is on fire this year and Shire-Bree Utd. has no chance to qualify. There is no question which team will win, but there is a question though if Doriath will play too relaxedly to just save energies for the play-offs – for even if they lose they will qualify, and it would take a real bashing for them to be dropped on the second place of this group.

Shire-Bree has only their honour to sell here, but there’s little to sell this time around: with a goal-scoring percentage of 3,7% they are the second worst this time around. And having Butterbur saving 53,3% of the shots it’s hard to see a surprise here, even if Doriath played loosely.

Himring vs Tirion

The real killer match! Other one will qualify, the other will be left into the group-stage. And there is a clear difference between the teams: Tirion has a more effective attack while Himring’s defenses are a bit stronger.

The AKM goes for Tirion to win the game. The forwards and attacking midfielders of Tirion like Finwë, Aredhel, Finrod Felagund, Mahtan and Finarfin, backed by Aulë himself and Caranthir in defense and Orodreth on goal just look so much stronger than Himring, even if they have the Silmaril-bearer Maedhros the tall or his good friend Fingon the Valiant on their ranks. They have a few decent helpers in their team but not enough to beat Tirion.


Group B

Anduin vs Esgaroth

Anduin will give their best on this match switching to full attack as their only chance to qualify rests on them winning and the Misty Mts. losing their game against Wilderland - and even in that situation there is a 4-goal gap to tie up…

Esgaroth is probably the single worst team in the tournament and it would be a miracle if Anduin lost. But whether Anduin reaches a win big enough against the proud dwellers of areas around Lake Town is another question.

A tough better might go for some of the forwards or attacking midfielders of Anduin this round… well a daring one could do that.

Misty Mts vs Wilderland

Wilderland has secured their qualification and they would hate to meet Valinor on the first stage of the play-offs. Knowing Sauron’s capability of looking towards greater goals for himself instead of being nice to possible allies it looks clear Wilderland will not be aiding Misty Mts., at least too much. It’s the classic Sauron vs. Saruman game here where no-one bets their money on Saruman.

Misty Mts. needs a point to qualify for sure and a small defeat would most probably be enough against Wilderland. So they might go for a draw to begin with and try to defend like crazy for it. So a lot depends on how vane Sauron is and how much better contenders against Valinor he thinks Misty Mts. in comparison to Andui; for sure Misty Mts. would wear them down a lot more than Anduin? So maybe we’re not seeing the beating the numbers would propose?


Group C

Hithlum vs The Downer

The two teams have no chance of qualifying so it’s up to the honour of the teams at stake. It’s hard to see any honour in team Downer but Celegorm, Curufin and Hador should make a feast of goals just to retain their dignity.

Hithlum beats them 6-0 just for the sake of it. Phantasy-point betters: notice this! Unless Celegorm and Curufin get mad and will not play…

Angband vs Angfauglith

Both teams have qualified but there is a lot at stake here. It’s the question of principle (even if inside team Anfaughlith the principle might be a different one as regards a player) as both teams are going truly for the final.

But even more importantly, the problem is that the winner of the group has a road paved for the semis at least while the loser would need to face Westernesse on the first play-off round – if clearing that T-I-G on the next one… and then most probably Valinor – or a team that would have won it!

So even if the prospect of meeting Doriath in the semis is not that appealing, it is a much more an easier way than needing to go through all those strong teams the other side of the table has to offer for the second team of the group.

The teams will clash in earnest and with full effort. Both teams score well, but there is a marked difference: Anfaughlith has a problem at their goal: Huor has been just a bad goalie this season, to put it bluntly (50% saving ratio) while Ungoliant has been decently good record (80%). Then again Maeglin has been phenomenal this year and Gothmog has not trailed that far behind him; but Ancalagon and Thuringwethil have been strong as well – and if Tilion or Morgoth rise to the occasion… well then Anfaughlith is in trouble.


Group D

Barad-Dur vs Gondor

This is a tough one. Both teams played 2-2 against Eriador (Eriador with 2 points now in contrast to their 1 point, but facing Eregion in the last match) and lost to Eregion 0-2. So both teams have a chance to qualify if Eregion does not lose.
The two teams are quite tied in the stats. Barad Dûr is a slight favourite to win (scoring percentge 9,1% vs. 8,3% / goalie’s saving percentage 69,2% vs. 66,7%), but the diffrences are marginal.

So in the end it is the question whether Gil-Galad and Isildur can get the odd bunch of the Mouth, Fellbeasts, Cirdan and others to play together or whether Eorl can get his troops with Arwen, Eldacar and Echtelion to rally behind him.
The AKM predicts Barad Dûr will win the game – unless it is a draw.

Eregion vs Eriador

Elrond has a great respect to Aragorn and Araphor, not to talk of the other kings of the north, and they have already won the group. So will Eregion play to the full or will they just play it easy to keep their energies to the play-offs?

One thing we know for sure is that Eregion will not be too happy to admit a goal as Elrond’s saving percentage shows a pure 100% right now, and they see no reason to change that. But it must be added team Eriador would be such a nicer team to qualify with them than Baras Dûr…

So does this spell a 0-0? Hopefully not.



Groups E-H to follow tomorrow...

[Galadriel55]

“Not a bad idea for a team” is what we thought before the start of the games. However, this was proven otherwise. We sent a man to find out exactly what is going on in that team, and what was the reason for their fate.

Reporter:Mister Butterbur, would you please tell us what stopped you from saving the 4 goals – especially Caranthir’s?

Butterbur: I only slowed down to ask him if he would like to stay at my inn for a night or two. My inn is good as ever, and the ale did not get worse (bless Gandalf for putting a good word on it)! You know, four of my teammates here have been there, they can tell you all about it. Now where was I? Of course, about Master Caranthir! I asked him what rooms would he prefer, and on which floor, if he would like to stay at my Pony, because, as you know, if he would like to stay, he has to choose a room…

Reporter: Mister Pippin, how do you feel about getting a (-1) Phantasy point?

Pippin: The referee was biased against our folks (the Ruffian!). He just didn’t recognize me as a knight of Gondor and one of King Elessar’s men.

Reporter: Mister Harry Goatleaf, can you please enlighten us about what you were doing during the game?

Harry: Why, I’m the gatekeeper! I was guarding the gates! Now don’t tell me that that’s ol’ Butterbur’s job. He’s always at his Pony, busy up to his ears – some one has to guard the gates!

Reporter: And Mister Merry, sir, what were your contributions?

Merry: I was blowing my horn. That really got a cheer from the crowd, if anything.

Reporter: Mister Gerontius, why is it that such an admirable Thain did not get any Phantasy points?

Gerontius: Well, there’s a reason I’m called “Old Took”!

Reporter: Mister Bandobras, how do you feel about assisting the only goal your team scored?

Bandobras: Ha! That was nothing! After golf, football is a joke!

Reporter: Mister Frodo, why was there such a lack of enthusiasm from you?

Frodo: I tried to save the Shire-Bree United, but it hasn’t been saved… and you didn’t even notice the attempt!!!

Pony Bill, Fatty Lumpkin, and Mr. Ferny refused to say anything, but we found out that instead of kicking the ball Bill kicked his namesake.

Reporter: Mister Samwise, sir, how is it so that you got a yellow card?

Samwise: I saw Ferny quarreling with my beloved Pony, so I threw an apple at him.

[Boromir88]

GROUP - ROUND 3 PREDICTION
BoroLXXXIII, Two Towers Network

Oh my, that was quite nearly a perfect round. The scores were still not up to par, (closer than in round 1 though) but 15 of 16 outcomes predicted correctly. The only fault was Misty Mts wound up with a draw against Anduin, instead of besting them. I wish I had this same amount of success picking phantasy players. I swapped out Araphor for Eorl, and Legolas for the B-W. What was I thinking!? Hopefully, I don't peak too soon, because if I falter with my predictions, than I'm going to be in big time trouble.

Fortunately my predictions never fall apart, but as the cream rises to the top and they start playing eachother in a vicious and spectacular final 16, win or go home playoffs, the games will get harder and harder to call.

(All the best color commentary to be editted back in tomorrow. I decided to try to tempt the magic internet pixies, and as I had the post typed and ready, klapooey, connection went dead. )

Group A
Doriath vs Shire-Bree United - No contest here, Doriath will be well on their way to sweeping the group in the most dominating fashion ever seen. It would be silly to not have a few Doriath players on your teams, but the questions are which ones? If you're near the leaders and wish to stay in striking distance, you're probably better off taking Turin, before falling behind further. However, if you're already a good distance behind and looking to catch up, it doesn't do much good adding the same players the leaders have. So, it may be better taking some of the Doriath players not picked up as much, like Beleg, Eol, and Melian. You may fall behind more if Turin keeps up on his rampage, but you're at a point where you have to think about catching up, if it's possible (and it is still possible ).
Doriath wins 3-0

Himring vs Tirion - One of the premier games of the round, winner moves on, loser goes home. A draw and Tirion advances, although this game won't end in a draw, simply because Maedhros, Fingon and Maglor won't allow it. They will come out determined to leave it all out on the pitch, as we like to call it. Save nothing let, and leave with no regrets. Question is will the treacherous Easterlings be playing with the same passion or flat out bail on Maedhros in the face of adversity as they have done so many times before?
Tirion wins 3-2

Group B
Anduin vs Esgaroth - Esgaroth has been atrocious yes, but I think they match up better with Anduin and not the rough/heavy-hitting Sauron and Saruman run teams. Anduin will certainly not blow out the scoreboard against anyone. So like this game will end 2-1 in favor of Anduin, and even with the win it won't be enough goals to knock off Misty Mts. But, I'm actually going to go out on a bit of a limb and say Esgaroth gets the draw. They have to be better than what they've shown so far, right? I mean really, they have to.
Draw 2-2

Misty Mts vs Wilderland - Another big game with a lot of factors on the line. Although, I think the hype and competitiveness will be over-sold on ths one by Sauron and Saruman. It will overhyped for publicity and profit purposes, but won't be much of a contest to be honest. 1 Balrog against 1 dragon and I would take the Balrog. But 1 Balrog and a gimmick wizard against 2 dragons, 2 wizards, and Sauron? Gimme Wilderland.
Wilderland wins 3-1

Group C
Hithlum vs The Downer - The Downer has shown absolutely zilch interest in actually playing the game. How they got a spot in the final 32 is beyond me, despite how interesting and whacko their characters are. And despite this, Hithlum's defense is so porous, without even trying The Downer can put up 2 goals on them. Problem is, Hithlum can score more, even in a game that means nothing.
Hithlum wins 4-2

Angband vs Angfauglith - Now this is a game which can not be over-hyped, it is going to be one of the great battles of the ages. Could very well be a championship caliber game, and we get to see it in group play! Statistics and gameplay all point to Angband winning this one, but I've picked Angfauglith to win the whole thing, and this group. And I'm sticking to that until they're eliminated!
Angfauglith wins 2-1

Group D
Barad-dur vs Gondor - This match will impact how the teams play in the 2nd match a lot. Everything shows that these 2 will fight to a draw, which means Eriador can relax a bit and just not lose by more than 2 goals to Eregion. However, I can't see what Eorl's and Eldacar's problems are, they have been multiple goal-scorers in every Arda Cup, except NOW. It's all about what you've done for me now, and I suspect these boys know that. They're due for a break out game, or at least they better have one NOW, or they'll be shipped out of Gondor double-quick.
Gondor wins 3-2

Eregion vs Eriador - This one could end in a draw, but that will do Eriador nothing if either Gondor or Barad-dur win. Even against the Vala defenses, these Eriador players know how to score, and I think they're just good enough to finally beat the impenetrable wall of Elrond. They can't do it twice though, I'm not sure anyone is that good. Eriador only has themselves to blame if they don't advance though, should have taken care of business against Barad-dur or Gondor and they didn't.
Eregion wins 2-1

Group E
Mordor vs Tol In Gaurhoth - All the questions are going to be will the wolves allow the orcs and Mordorians to go through with them over the more annoying Bombadillians? Wolves won't care about this game, but they won't care about orc feelings either.
TIG wins 2-0

Nargothrond vs The Forest - This one is hard to say, because so many times before when I've picked Bombadil's team and thought his star quality is enough to get into the playoffs, he skips off to a field of lilies. I think this year might be slightly different, if only for the fact that the Ents are good defenders and shutdown when riled from slumber, plus Nargothrond is a joke.
The Forest wins 3-2

Group F
Mithrim vs Tol Eressea - Not much to see here, move along, eventhough this is an important game to win for Tol Eressea. I can't see how Mithrim can score on Ulmo's defense, and Ulmo will probably get the lone goal of the match too.
Tol Eressea wins 1-0

Numenor vs Westernesse - I don't care what AKM wants to speculate, Wesernesse will not tank this game to allow Numenor to qualify. They forget these Westernesse players met in secret to form their own super-team, combining the best of Numenor with the best of Gondor. Numenor's not going to take being cast aways by the primadonna's lightly, they'll come out wanting to beat them. But all that means is Westernesse will put the Numenoreans in their rightful place, as spit-shiners for Ar-Pharazon's golden boots.
Westernesse wins 2-0

Group G
Beleriand vs Gondolin - No surprising comeback in store for the scrappy Beleriand team. Their draw against Pelori was an awesome story, but they've since come back to earth and now everyone's waiting when Gondolin will actually come to play at all?
Draw 1-1

Pelori vs Valinor - Here's an interesting one, considering all the storylines with Tulkas running off to forget his own team. Will Manwe put his rebelling brother in his place? Not likely. As long as you're not Morgoth or Feanor, Manwe basically stays hands off and lets members of his club do what they want. In this case Tulkas' aggressiviness will always win out over the boring conservativeness of Manwe, at least in the game of soccer, not always the case in the fate of Arda.
Valinor wins 2-1

Group H
Minas Morgul vs Minas Tirith - Minas Tirith will play better than what they'v shown, because there is no love loss when playing Minas Morgul. But talents not there to seriously make this a thrilling rivalry, sorry but it's not. Where is the Witch-King? Where is Castamir? And where is the Queen? Are all fair questions and quite right. They'll have a break out performance against their weaker foes.
Minas Morgul wins 4-2

Dunharrow vs Lothlorien - Dunharrow's given a much better effort than the Helm's Deep teams of the past, but sorry boys, not good enough to beat Lothlorien and advance. Not with Feanor dominating as he is, and Legolas and Boromir adding their contributions. Not with the defense playing as good as it is, and Galadriel truly raising her performances. Keep playing like this, and the Golden Woods may finally have a real winner to brag about.
Lothlorien wins 2-0

[Nogrod]

Group E

Mordor vs Tol In Gaurhoth

The werevolwes are already through to the play-offs and they have been playing a bit sloppy at times when there is nothing at stake for them; but on the other hand one would think Mordor would be an opponent they’d like to beat just for the fun of it. If they get into it there is no way Mordor will prevail, so in the end it’s the attitude of the T-I-G that will decide the outcome of the match.

Mordor on the other hand needs points desperately to qualify and they will give their best. Is it enough against the werewolves is another question entirely.

Starting from same points before the final round with The Forest who have a lot weaker opponent against them doesn’t promise well for the Mordor side, but it is clear they will fight.

Nargothrond vs The Forest

Nargothrond has been unquestioningly one of the major disappointments this year. Somehow Beor the Old, Glaurung and Finduilas have not been able to pull their act together – which looked at from certain angle is not that surprising. But against such an unpredictable team as The Forest one can’t throw away the chance they might surprise. The stress is on the word ‘might’.

The Forest has a decent chance to qualify. Their goal difference is two goals minus whereas Mordor is at even, but T-I-G has won both their earlier matches 3-0, and in that case even a draw would do for them.

The question is then more or less only about Tom Bombadill and his willingness to get interested in the game. As a positive sign one could note that Bombadill stayed quite focused in their earlier game against Mordor gathering a nice 2+1. With Tom leading his team the ents can play decent football and Thranduil, Saeros and River Woman can actually score as well.

The AKM would not wish to bet on the outcome of this group, but if it was forced to do that, it would bet on The Forest to qualify.


Group F

Mithrim vs Tol Eressëa

Tuor and his bunch of men have only theoretical chances of qualifying as they would have to win Tol Eressëa with three goals. Seeing that Númenor wasn’t able to score against Tol Eressëa at all and even Westernesse had to settle with only two goals against them it looks like a mission impossible, not the least because Mithrim has managed to score only one goal in their first two matches themselves. So very much an uphill struggle for Mithrim.

Tol Eressëa has one of the most solid defences of the tournament and even if Uinen and Elwing have been all but flashing, they should be able to score once or twice to win the match comfortably. With a win from Mithrim they would be strong candidates to qualify with a win over Númenor in their pocket as well. But it will not be in their hands.

Númenor vs Westernesse

Practically Númenor needs to win Westernesse to qualify as the chances for Tol Eressëa to fall against Mithrim are slim indeed. But is there any believable chance they could do it? An honest answer to the question would have to be no. But this time there is a slight “but” involved in the form of brotherly love.

If Westernesse lets Númenor win the game they could help team Númenor to qualify over Tol Eressëa. Now Ar Pharazôn denied that possibility with quite strong words, but then again Elros is the captain of the team and calls the shots.

Even if the AKM wants to remind readers of this possibility, it would not be betting on it itself. Even if the Westernesse players from Númenor loved their brothers and sisters and held the glory of Númenor dear, it’s hard to see them acting unsportsmanlikely like that – or willing to lose to anyone in the first place, even to their kin.


Group G

Beleriand vs Gondolin

The air of group G has been quite bitter after the scandal of the Nogrodian dwarves and it is extremely hard to predict what will follow. If Valinor allows Pelori even one point it will be totally insignificant what happens in the match between Beleriand and Gondolin. But that will not be known to the teams as they will be meeting before the Valier-teams match-up.

If both teams would play it seriously and with full effort one would need to say it would be a very close game to call with Beleriand maybe slight favourites.

But a few “buts” enter here. First of all Gondolin has no chance to qualify any more, how will that affect their game? Secondly, it seems at least some folks at Gondolin feel for the team Beleriand and are quite upset with the way the issue with the dwarves has been handled; so would they go as far as to help Beleriand to give it back to Manwë by losing big-time as it doesn’t matter to them success-wise? And would that happen, would it in turn affect the late game and how team Valinor plays?

Be that as it may, one of the big question around this year’s tournament still is, what went wrong in Gondolin? They lost a lot of the best talent there is but gained more or less as much. Still they have lost their chances of qualifying already after the two first rounds of group-play. Many fingers do point towards Turgon – some even say it’s not the first time Turgon has been fore-warned and he has not paid heed to the imminent disaster…

Pelori vs Valinor

Many say Manwë’s teams play the dull and opponent-friendly game caring more about defense than offense – and more about good relations between them and the opponents than going for it big time. And this year’s tournament seems to have proven those many right once again. In the friendlies they won every match they played – with one goal difference!

And they have continued that strategy also in the group-phase – although Beleriand managed a last minute equaliser messing it up one time. So the question becomes, how good they really are, can they challenge the very strong-looking Valinor side if the competition will be real? Or is Manwë planning to compensate the Belerianders for the wrong-doing he deemed necessary?

But as said in the earlier review, Pelori needs only one point to qualify which means they need a draw – unless Beleriand doesn’t win with at least two goals, which they will know when their game begins…

Even if the issue has been speculated here and there, it is hard to see Tulkas giving in an inch to help his brother to qualify. He set up his team to show he liked different football and the game between the two should be the showcase for him to hammer it in his way is the better one.

So it’s up to how good and how willing the Pelori actually are.


Group H

Minas Morgul vs Minas Tirith

Minas Morgul needs only to beat the weakest side of the group to make their qualification most probable. And the bigger numbers they score, the more probable the qualification (the chance of Dunharrow to beat Lothlórien is relatively non-existent, but in case that would happen the probability of them beating lady Galadriel’s team big time is more or less zero). So expect Minas Morgul to go for scoring, even if that hasn’t been their strongest weapon thus far.

There is one big question that is on everybody’s lips when speaking of team Minas Morgul, and that is, what has happened to the Witch King? He has been one of the most effective scorers every year thus far, and he hasn’t always had a great host of talent around him to score by himself. But somehow he is not playing up to his level. Nowhere near!

Some claim he has said feeling a bit thin lately, but some others claim he’s just been taking it easy the first two matches and will blast a hat-trick against Minas Tirith – would there be a better team against which to wake up for him?

If the supporters of the Minas Tirith team are counted off, it’s hard to see any sane person betting on them on this match (whether Minas Tirith supporters can be said to be a sane bunch in the first place is another matter we will not dwell into here). Eomer and Faramir haven’t gotten anything done and Eowyn has made herself noticed only with two yellow cards.

Dunharrow vs Lothlórien

Dunharrow and Lothlórien were both real disappointments during the friendlies but have shown a bit more effective side of their teams in the group-play. But there is a marked difference in the quality of the teams still. The battlehardened Rohanians have shown some stamina but less flair. Sadly, even if lady Galadriel could pity them Fëanor will not.

What comes to Lothlórien, it is interesting to see that after all that row during the friendlies they have really pulled themselves together in the group phase. The 3-0 win over Minas Tirith was quite promising indeed, and Legolas is just hot! If Fëanor finds his silmaril-boot, they could seriously talk about being competitive semifinalists.

And it’s not only that the team has started working better, but Galadriel has also shown – after a few disappointing years – that she is a quality keeper who can win games.

So it’s looking bright for Lothlórien and less so for Dunharrow.

[Nogrod]

The AKM has collected a few stats for you to enjoy and to pay heed to...



The most effective scoring teams = percentage of (goals made / shots overall)

Angband 22,6% (7/31)
Anfaughlith 21,9% (7/32)
Doriath 21,2% (7/33)
Westernesse 20,7% (6/29)
Hithlum 20% (5/25)

The worst scoring teams = percentage of (goals made / shots overall)

Esgaroth 0% (0/18)
Shire-Bree Utd. 3,7% (1/27)
Nargothrond 5% (1/20)
The Downer 5% (1/20)
Minas Tirith 5,3% (1/19)



The shooters = shots on goal (shots overall)

Doriath 19(33)
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 16(33)
Wilderland 16(33)
Anfaughlith 16(32)

The worst to shoot = shots on goal (shots overall)

Mithrim 6(15)
Esgaroth 6(18)
The Downer 6(20)
Tol Eressëa 7(15)
Gondolin 7(18)
Nargothrond 7(20)



The tightest defenses = shots on goal allowed (shots overall allowed)

Westernesse 6(14)
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 6(16)
Wilderland 6(17)
Númenor 7(16)
Lothórien 7(17)
Pelori 7(18)

The weakest defenses = shots on goal allowed (shots overall allowed)

Hithlum 18(36)
Tirion 16(34)
Mithrim 15(30)
Shire-Bree Utd. 15(28)
Anduin 14(27)



Best goalies = saving percentage (goals allowed / total shots against)

Elrond of Eregion 100% (0/12)
Shastawolf of Tol-In-Gaurhoth 100% (0/6)
Tar Atanamir of Westernesse 100% (0/6)
Huan of Doriath 90% (1/10)
Caradhras of Misty Mts. 87,5% (1/8)
Galadriel of Lothlórien 85,7% (1/7)

Worst goalies = saving percentage (goals allowed / total shots against)

Brand of Esgaroth 46,2% (7/13)
Huor of Anfaughlith 50% (4/8)
Butterbur of Shire-Bree Utd. 53,3% (7/15)
King Bus of The Downer 53,8% (6/13)
Imlach of Hithlum 55,6% (8/18)

[Boromir88]

Group D

Match 5 - Barad-Dur vs Gondor
Barad-Dur and Gondor began the day behind Eriador in the standings, but were aware that wasn't a huge obstacle. Both teams in the early match believed if they could win this one, they were going to leap-frog Eriador in 2nd place.

The Ost-in-Edhil stadium was mostly full, but filled mostly with locals from Eregion who had no strong allegiances to either team. They were just hoping to see a good match where there were playoffs on the line. Although stronger sympathies appeared to be for Barad-Dur since Gil Galad was still a beloved hero in the area. And they were appreciative of the fact that he was keeping a tight control over the team, not letting The Mouth and his crew get away with their usual sinister shenanigans. The Gondorians were less appreciative of King Isildur, however. How could he play under the banner of their greatest enemy? Sauron gone or not, it was a slap in the face to the proud realm of Men (or so the Gondorians thought).

Barad-Dur started in their normal defensive style, as Gondor came out pressing. It must be said though, The Mouth and his fellows were banging up the Gondorian attackers, appearing to test the ref to see how much roughing up they could get away with. It was working for Barad Dur though, the rough play wasn't effecting the stout Gondorians physically, but it was getting under their skin, frustrating them.

Eorl was taken down in the box, and felt for sure he deserved a penalty kick, but the ref wasn't interested. And when Eorl mocked whether the referee had left his cards in a different pair of pants. The ref showed that he had not forgotten his cards, and booked Eorl for protesting. Gondor was losing composure, that was quite uncharacterstic of them, and it was costly. Since after Eorl was shown a yellow, Barad-Dur was launching one of their quick counter attacks. Isildur was stretching the field wide, trying to draw defenders and open up room in the Gondor box. He crossed it in to Gil Galad, who controlled the pass masterfully and with one touch rolled it into the goal.

Gondor was pressing again, trying to take advantage if Barad-Dur was relaxing a bit too much after getting the lead. Gondor could have, and probably should have equalized in the next 10 minutes had it not been for a heroic effort by Ohtar between the posts. And in the 27th minute Arwen tried to pass it to Eorl, inside the box, but it was cut off and headed away nicely by Anarion. Barad-Dur started the counter again, and this time The Mouth forward too, giving Barad-Dur the advantage in numbers. Gil-Galad and Cirdan were covered, and one Boromir I stepped forward to challenge Isildur, it really was a simple matter of finding the open player, The Mouth who then beat Ecthelion II.

Through the 1st half, Gondor was controlling most of the posession, and most of the shooting, deservedly or not though, they found themselves down 0-2 after 45 minutes. And that's all that mattered. They had allowed Barad-Dur to frustrate them and had become unglued. Even if they could regroup during the break, Gondor fans were biting their nails off, knowing how difficult an 0-2 defecit is to come back from, especially when they really needed the win as a draw would likely not be enough points. While Barad-Dur had seemingly worked out all their inner tensions, as the last few games the baddies have shown good spirit and willingness to play for Gil Galad.

The scripts for the 2nd half was easy to predict. Gondor needed goals and quickly so they came out with more fury than ever before, and with a 2-goal lead Barad Dur would be concentrating all their efforts on defense. Gil Galad was keeping all 11-players behind the ball and Gondor kept pushing them further back, making Barad-dur defend deeper and deeper. There was still no answer for Ohtar's parade of saves, he was playing like he had a real mission or purpose. Perhaps proving to his lord, Isildur, and his team that he was a worthy, dependable goal keeper?

After just about 20 minutes had gone by in the 2nd though, Gondor found the goal they so desperately were searching for. The goal wasn't any accomplishment of brilliance, nor a mistake by Ohtar. It was more or less luck (or unluck if you look from Ohtar's perspective). Since all 11 of Barad-Dur players had been pushed back to defend, it was a jumbled mess in front of Ohtar. Arwen lobbed one into the box, and Eorl got a foot too it, but it was blocked by Gothmog II. After some ping-ponging around, and a failure by Barad Dur to clear the ball away from their goal, it deflected off Eldacar last. Nevertheless, a goal is a goal. It counted and Gondor had reduced the defecit to 1.

Ohtar shared some quick words with his master and it seemed Isildur agreed. They needed to stretch the field a bit and not let everyone slowly get pushed back in front of Ohtar. And it was relatively easy for Barad-Dur to keep most the action at the mid-field and occasionally put pressure on Gondor's defense. Since the intense play by Godor's attackers to start the half had taken a toll on their legs, and it was showing in the tiredness of their faces as well.

These matches are a long grind and so they seemed like they were trying to wear the clock down more than wearing themselves out, and making sure they had enough energy to deal with any of Gondor's attacks that might materialize. So, while Barad-durs shooting was nothing to be mavel at, they were at least forcing Gondor into playing defense and not letting them concentrate all efforts on equalizing.

But as it was closing down the final stretch, Gondor needed goals and began playing more risky. Barad-dur was being forced onto their back heels though as Gondor was relentless. With only a few minutes left Arwen broke free from her Nazgul defender, she was into the box, with only Ohtar left to beat. Lo! Ohtar made a kick save and it was a b-e-a-u'teh. Barad-Dur controlled it for the final seconds, holding on for the win. Gondor was eliminated while the Dark Tower would go through if Eriador could not win Eregion.

After their elimination from the tournament, Gondor secretly shuffled out of the locker room, trying to avoid the media circus outside. Arwen briefly stopped just to comment that the grief of elimination was still too near and would not be taking any questions at this time. After their qualification last year, this must have been a bitter pill for the Gondorians to swallow, and hope they can be back next year with a strong vengeance.

Barad-Dur 2-1 Gondor
tot shots 14-14
on target 5-8
GOALS:
*16, 1-0 Gil-galad (Isildur)
*27, 2-0 Mouth (Isildur)
*64, 2-1 Eldacar (Eorl)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Barad-Dur- Gothmog II, Mouth, Fellbeast #2
*Gondor- Felarof, Narmacil, Eorl

Match 6 - Eregion vs Eriador
Eriador's only hope now is to beat Eregion and with the form Eregion has shown the first two games this seemed like it would be beyond the powers of the rangers. Even if Eregion had nothing left to play for, already being assured of winning the group, Elrond took great pride in keeping his goal clean and was likely not to throw away goals to allow one team to qualify over another. Still if Eregion was to be beaten, now would be the best time, since they were likely to let up and take it easy.

It was a very slow start to the game, the Rangers were trying to take the initiative but found it extremely difficult against the defense Elrond arranged. The Elves were well versed and prepared for the tactics of Rangers, but Arvedui was equally prepared. With Eriador having just the extra bit of motivation and desperation they slowly started taking over the game.

Their attempts were bearing no goals however. Eriador was not given the time nor space to get off a real quality shot. And in order to beat Elrond, it had to be quality of the very highest. His positioning was perfect every time and whatever shot did make it through the defense, Elrond had easily covered.

Then in the 25th minute, disaster for the Rangers. The Barrow-wight was not intimidating any of the Elven defenders and the Wight had it stolen by Celebrimbor from right under his cold feet. Eregion began their counter attack and much had been made of Earendil's poor performance through 2 games. He was a high price signing, who was expected to fill a hole Elrond's teams always lacked, scoring. But thus far only had 1 assist. The cynics were silenced and the Eregion fans burst into song when Earendil got his first goal for his new team. Arvedui had no chance.

The Rangers were down, but not knocked out and just as quickly as they had fallen behind, they showed Eregion they were not ready to pack their bags just yet. Eregion had a terrible lapse of focus after grabbing the lead, celebrating too early and thinking ahead to their playoff match, instead of the current match? Whatever the case, Araphor got open in the box, after receiving a pass from Aragorn, Asfaloth was the closest defender, but couldn't close down in time. Araphor shot a snipe that Elrond got his fingertips too, but it wasn't enough to deflect the ball off it's tragectory. Araphor's shot scraped the paint off the left post and it was in. Elrond's perfect save percentage was snapped, and after he grabbed the ball from back of the net he gave his defenders a stern glare as if to say "Let's go, keep your head in the game."

It was positive Eriador was able to equalize that quickly, but they would still need another goal, and scoring on Elrond again was judged to be beyond the power of the Rangers. If the first Eregion goal was a disaster, the 2nd was heart break. 10 minutes after Eriador was able to equalize, this time Lindir intercepted a pass and sent it on to Earendil. Earendil broke away from his marker and hammered another shot beyond Arvedui's reach. Now there were no questions as to why Elrond wanted his father on the team in the hearts of the Eregion supporters.

Eriador went into the half looking dejected and their wills broken. There was still a half to be played, but Elrond had never conceded 3 goals in a match, ever. It seemed as though Eriador had already conceded defeat, and without their same determination the 2nd half was a drag. The rangers were only going through the motions now, and Elrond was happy to just let the score stand.

There was another goal in the 64th minute, but it was quite accidental. Elladan ballooned the ball up into the air, Arvedui had come out of his goal to try to snatch it out of the air. However, Bert was trying to jog backwards to head it away, but he tripped over his own feet and knocked ito Arvedui. The ball was bouncing towards the goal line and Amlaith couldn't reach it before it was over the line.

The match ended with no further action. Eriador would be going home with Gondor, while the Eregion fans could spend the next few days celebrating. They won the group and would take on The Forest, and that meant there would be another game played in the beautiful stadium at Ost-in-Edhil in front of Eregion's passionate fans.

*~*~*

Eriador's captains were not going to run back with their tails between their legs however, they were far too noble for that.

Aragorn: "We knew it would be a tough challenge once Barad-Dur knocked out Gondor in the first match but we are better than what we showed tonight. We had our chances, but should have done better, not only in this game but in the others as well."

Arvedui: "I know after our success last year this must be a major let down to our loyal fans. We have had a plan in mind for the last few years, but didn't quite have the finances to get the deal done this year. We promise there will be a new and exciting look to this squad next year and hope our fans have not lost confidence in us."

Eregion 3-1 Eriador
tot shots 13-16
on target 6-7
GOALS:
*25, 1-0 Earendil (Glorfindel)
*28, 1-1 Araphor (Aragorn)
*38, 2-1 Earendil (Lindir)
*64, 3-1 Elladan (Glorfindel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Eregion- Asfaloth
*Eriador- Bert, Aranarth

Final Results: Group D
Eregion 9p. 7-1(+6)
Barad-Dur 4p. 4-5 (-1)

Eriador 2p. 5-7(-2)
Gondor 1p. 3-6(-3)

Eregion will play The Forest in Round 1, while Barad-Dur will face Tol In Gaurhoth.

[Boromir88]

Group H

Match 5 - Minas Morgul vs Minas Tirith
Minas Tirith had the ever slightest chance of advancing still, even though no one was betting on their chances to do so. Minas Morgul was currently tied with Dunharrow for second, and would be under the enormous expectation to put down their enemy for good, while Dunharrow would have the more difficult task of having to play Lothlorien.

The stadium was loud and the tension was thick before kick-off. Faramir, Imrahil, Eowyn they were well aware they had not played up to form, but they have also faced the evil of the Witch-King before and had succeeded. So, perhaps a bloody and ancient rivalry was enough to awaken their team to a greater effort. There was actually more Rohirrim in the stands than Minas Tirithians, not only because the Rohirrim greatly desired the defeat of Minas Morgul, but many of their own heroes such as Eomer, Eowyn, and Cirion were playing for Minas Tirith as well. But as we had seen in the first 2 rounds, Minas Morgul had been unleashed and travelled to Dunharrow. It was a great atmosphere for a game, as there were the Minas Morgul fans and then everyone else, rooting against them. There was no room to plead neutrality in this match.

Unfortunately, the players on the field did not like eachother either and their actions only seemed to rile the fans into acting on their violent thoughts. The game was an absolute blood bath as 2 players were each sent off and Gamling and Theoden's royal guard had their hands full securing the stadium. Many in the crowd had to be forcibly removed as there seemed to be a brawl in the stands that took place every 5 minutes. Minas Morgul griped that their fans were shown the exit far quicker and for less heinous acts than the Minas Tirith sections.

Thankfully, no one was killed, at least within the Dunharrow compound (MEFA is checking into the accounts of deaths outside the stadium and whether it was football related). But the numbers seemed to support the Minas Morgul argument as, of those who reported injuries: 24 were Minas Morgul fans, 28 were not. So, the number of injured were pretty even, but the number of ejections were not: 246 Minas Morgul fans were kicked out of the stadium, compared to 11 people supporting Minas Tirith.

But enough of the politics of crowd control, as there was still an important game that needed to be played and what a game it would be!

Eowyn opened the scoring for Minas Tirith in the 21st minute, she had been having a terrible performance, but was able to rise to the occassion today, in front of her home fans who still adored their Shieldmaiden.

However, the Witch-King seemed to take Eowyn scoring the goal, personally. He was not going to be out down by the Lady of Rohan again. So, in a combination of skill, power, and fear the Witch-King worked the ball nicely with the wannabe-King and Minas Morgul was equal. When the Witch-King shot it, he let out a terrible screech, the Minas Tirith defenders trying to clog up the box suddenly collapsed onto the ground. Cirion did his best to save it, but really he had no chance, not with the force the Witch-King had struck on that one.

Would giving up the equalizing goal so close to the end of the half demoralize Minas Tirith? As surrending late goals has a tendancy to do? For they had been playing well in this one, so far. There was still honor and strength out of the great fortress of Gondor, and were not playing at all like many of the pundits had anticipated.

And only 5 minutes into the 2nd, the pundits appeared right as Minas Tirith was becoming unhinged. Denethor II had been jawing with Castamir through out the game. Castamir had been heard taunting that he was surprised the see Denethor get his bum off the throne for once And Castamir had heard there was a beacon close by that Denethor could climb and light himself on after he took the throne of Gondor. Denethor shoved Castamir to the ground. Even if Denethor was provoked into the foul, the ref had no other choice, it was a yellow to Denethor. His second of the match, and Minas Tirith would now be a man short with nearly 40 minutes still left.

It did not take long for Minas Morgul to capitilize on the guile of Castamir. 7 minutes after Denethor had been sent off Herumor banged one in, off a beautiful pass from the King Dead. The mountains began to shake from the stomping, cheering, and celebrations of Minas Morgul. They had the 1-man advantage, and now a 1-goal lead, so it was only a matter of time before the pathetic Minas Tirithians would be crushed.

However, shortly after Minas Morgul took the lead, fortunes would begin to turn against them. When you are facing a hated enemy, you don't always think with the clearest head. Such was the case for the Witch-King who wanted to completely humiliate his opponents. It was costly, as the Witch-King pushed his full team forward, Faramir stepped in to intercept and quickly passed the ball on to Eomer. Eomer was all alone and racing straight on towards Earnur. Angamaite was behind and decided he had to stop Eomer by taking him out from the back. It was a yellow for Angamaite, his second, and now he was sent off.

It was now 10 on 10 and truthfully the ref could have sent off more, but there was still over 25 minutes to play and he appeared to just say no more. If the two teams wanted to leave the field, hobbled, bruised, and bloodied that was their choice, he wasn't going to turn this into a 7 on 7 game.

Even with the advantage gone, a 2-1 victory was not going to be good enough for the Witch-King. How could he return to Minas Morgul with honor, only barely beating his weakling enemies? So, he came at Minas Tirith with even more fury. His aggression would be his undoing as Cirion was stopping everything that came at him this time. And when Cirion saw the back line of Minas Morgul draw further up to attack, Cirion caught Beruthiel's shot, he passed it out wide to Imrahil. The Minas Morgul defenders all tried desperately to run back as Eomer, Tarondor, Eowyn, and Faramir were all breaking forward. They did manage to get back, but did not have time to get their defense set, and the confusion led to Tarondar knocking in the equalizer.

With 15 minutes left in the match, the Witch-King finally appeared to wisen up, and suck up his pride. As a draw might not be the most desired result, if he were to actually lose to Minas Tirith and put their playoff chance at risk, he would never be able to return to Minas Morgul with honor (if there is such a thing as honor in Mordor?)

Minas Tirith had really nothing to lose and were going straight up for the win, which greatly pleased the crowd. The final 15 was filled with tension, excitement, and watching Minas Morgul truly be on the ropes desperately trying to hold on to the 1 point. However, there would be no winning goal, as unlike other GKs, Earnur has appeared to step up his game after his poor friendlies. Minas Morgul barely hung on, but they did and for the time being were sitting in 2nd with 4 pts, while Dunharrow was at 3, and Minas Tirith would be going home.

*~*~*

Minas Tirith did manage to come away with a point, and against Minas Morgul which should appease their fanbase somewhat. But if the reaction of the Minas Tirith fans after the game was indicative of the headlines in tomorrow's papers back in Gondor, then Minas Tirith was facing a PR nightmare.

Hurin of the Keys: I had been given leave from my gate duties so I could come and watch the games here. Being the Warden of Keys is pretty boring since there's been a declaration of peace, but I gotta tell you, I should have just stayed at the gate if I knew I'd be forced to watch this disaster. Yeah, we managed to draw in the last one, but big deal. Where are the great ship kings, Falastur and Hyarmendacil? Where is the faithful Steward, Mardil? Or our greatest generals, Earnil and the Boromir's? They're all playing for other teams, and it sickens me to see the leaders of this team apparently not even try to go after them, or keep them here. Their names our legendary, and can't get behind this team until I start seeing some of these names playing again for the White Tree and towered-City.

Minas Morgul 2-2 Minas Tirith
tot shots 17-14
on target 7-6
GOALS:
*21, 0-1 Eowyn (Imrahil)
*42, 1-1 Witch King (Castamir)
*58, 2-1 Herumor (King Dead)
*75, 2-2 Tarondar (Eomer)
YELLOW CARDS:
*MMorgul- Beruthiel, Angamaite, Castamir, Fuinur, Nazgul #3
*MTirith- Denethor II, Eomer, Beregond, Grimbold, Firefoot
RED CARDS:
*MMorgul- Angamaite (63, second yellow)
*MTirith- Denethor II (51, second yellow)

Match 6 - Dunharrow vs Lothlorien
After the violence displayed in the earlier game, it was a completely opposite atmosphere for the 2nd. The Lothlorien supporters were greatly outnumbered in the stands, but with no known quarrels, the Rohirrim respected them. And were also pleased to host a team with Feanor, they had not seen a star of Feanor's skill in Rohan before. Likewise, Lothlorien appreciated their hosts. There was a certain gritiness to Dunharrow that people just loved to see in a team. Clearly, not the most talented players, but they would play you fair and straight up, a worthy opponent to be up against.

There was so much kindness and love-mongering the couple thousand Minas Morgul fans who stayed to watch as this game would mean something in Minas Morgul's fate actually wound up leaving before first kick. "It's nauseating" grumbled Gorthakh. "It wouldn't surprise me if Lothlorien allowed Dunharrow to win 1-0, just to keep our team out."

Minas Morgul was not surprised then, when at the start, Dunharrow was the team pressuring and Lothlorien was more or less just letting them have the ball. "See I told you!" snarled Shaktor, another Minas Morgul supporter who then promptly got up and left.

Despite letting Dunharrow hold on to possession, they were having a terrible time trying to create good chances. Gandalf was a true wizard back in the defense and Shadowfax was tireless. Most of Dunharrow's shots to begin the game had went sailing harmlessly off target, and no trouble to Galadriel.

Around the 20 minute mark, Dunharrow was not used to keeping up offensive pressure for long, Helm and the attacking mid-fielders were showing signs of slowing down. Then Lothlorien had actually started to build their own attacks. It was rather surprising, since Galadriel is known for being stubbornly defensive minded and only looking for counters. But now they were taking control of possession, holding the ball and forming an actual, consistent offense, led by Feanor. And in the 33rd minute, Legolas is not known for his long-distance precision for no reason. There was an open shooting lane , and Aldor wasn't in the best of position having his view blocked by the tall Boromir. It still took a lot of skill and accuracy for Legolas to squeeze it through the tight crowd and keep the ball down just enough to sneak it under the top cross bar.

The Rohirrim were silent, Lothlorien was in no interest to hand the game to them, so how were they going to manage 2 goals when they were playing wise? The Minas Morgul fans, who were now all at the local watering holes were pleasantly surprised. Maybe Galadriel and Lothlorien were not as bad as they thought? And they were always awed by Feanor's skill, who's Hithlum team played theirs a few Arda cups ago.

The 2nd half whistle blew, and Dunharrow again tried pushing for a goal, but the Lothlorien defense was having none of it today. They were completely shutting down Dunharrow. In like a virtual replay of the 1st period, Lothlorien began getting more control of the possession.

In the 72nd minute, they were awarded a corner kick, and what was this, Gimli was taking it? But he's a defensive mid-fielder and is never involved in the offense? And Celeborn too!? Was Lothlorien just trying to show off now or something? With far better success than anyone anticipated, Gimli sent in a beautiful cross from the corner that Celeborn headed in, giving Lothlorien a 2 goal lead now.

And after that goal the game really slowed down as when Lothlorien had the ball they just kicked it around, winding down the time. If Dunharrow had it, they were still making an effort, but nothing. Without the motivation, you weren't going to beat Gandalf's masterful defense nor Galadriel's determination.

Before heading into the showers (since Galadriel always waited for all the males to be done first anyway) she stayed on the field to comment about the game.

Galadriel: We decided now was a good time to try a few different things, to see if we could execute. Making it out of the group stage is one thing, but advancing deep into the playoffs is a completely different challenge. Feanor has been there before and it would be unwise for us to not listen to his experience. I thought now would be a good opportunity to try out his ideas on a possession game and building a controlled offense, in a real game situation.

What about the corner-kick taken by Gimli, will we see more of that later?

Galadriel: Most likely not, that was just for fun if we could afford it. My husband was a striker last year, and has always had some creative offensive ideas. I thought we could use him better in defense this year, but to let him go up for that play if he wanted to. Gimli is an excellent defender, and that means he also has a powerful boot. I admit I was surprised that he delivered that good of a corner, but I doubt I'll use him again in those situations for the playoffs.

Galadriel listening to Feanor and talking about her players having 'fun?' Is this the real Galadriel and if they were playing as relaxed and confident as they have through the group stages, opponents beware, they are serious contenders for the trophy.

*~*~*

Unlike some other teams who had to take a journey home, the Dunharrow team, as the hosts, really could not run and hide. They needed to stay home and face the questions over their elimination from the local media.

Theoden: Listen. "Our fate was in our hands in the final match of the group. We were just up against a better team, and it's really that simple."

Aldor: "There's a lot of positives to take from this team, but in order to compete and get better we need to bring back some old names. Honestly. There is absolutely no reason Eorl should not be with us, and the great mearas for that matter too. We were at our most competitive with them on the defense and Eorl leading the attack."

Theoden: "Aldor's right. It seems to me that Eorl needs to be reminded, while he made an oath to ride to Gondor's aid whenever he was called upon, that this oath is non-binding in football. He needs to return and play for his people."

Dunharrow 0-2 Lothlorien
tot shots 15-14
on target 4-8
GOALS:
*33, 0-1 Legolas (Feanor)
*72, 0-2 Celeborn (Gimli)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Dunharrow- Snowmane, Folca
*Lothlorien- Shadowfax

Final Results: Group H
Lothlorien 9p. 7-1(+6)
Minas Morgul 4p. 5-5(0)

Dunharrow 3p. 3-5(-2)
Minas Tirith 1p. 3-7(-4)

Lothlorien will go to their enchanted forest to play Tirion. Minas Morgul will take the long journey to Doriath.

[Nogrod]

Group G


Before the final games at Valmar it was clear that Valinor was through to the knock-out phase and Gondolin’s story would end this year into the group-play. But Beleriand and Pelori were still contending for the other qualifying post – and actually, if Pelori would win Valinor they would claim the number one seat of the group and avoid meeting Doriath on the second round of qualifiers although then most probably forced to meet Westernesse on the next. Most pros agreed the position on the upper quarter was the tougher one for Group G, but it was not an uncontested belief. Be that as it may, it’s obvious there are no easy games reaching final four, or even eight, and winning the championship would require the team to win every game after the group-rounds.


~*~


Many Gondolian players and supporters had shown openly their dismay over the Nogrodian-issue and voiced their support to both the players and fans of team Beleriand, but that didn’t seem to affect their willingness to play against them seriously, even if they had no chance of qualifying themselves. But looking at the poor performance of team Gondolin this year it is understandable they didn’t want to return home with only lost games under their belt and be compared to teams like Shire-Bree Utd. or Mithrim.

And they played a very entertaining and even game – rekindling the discussion some media had entertained before the group-phase of whether this group was just too strong compared to many others and whether they both would had qualified in other groups – leading to the discussion about Manwë’s role once again pulling the strings behind the curtains to his whims. Whatever the case, both teams showed a lot of talent and fighting spirit – and with the fate of the second qualifier at stake the audiences were given a treat indeed.

Gondolin went into the lead on 24th minute when Salgant’s big shot hit the woodworks and Turgon shoved the rebound in from close range. But Beleriand equalized before the half-time with Aegnor’s great run on the flank and crossing that found Belegund’s head from between the Gondolian defenders.

The second half was no less exciting as both teams fought seriously for the win. Due to the differences in strategies Gondolin seemed to have more of the possession and it actually created a few more quality-shots, but Beleriand was always dangerous when it got the ball and had it’s fair share of scoring-chances.

But after some few nice opportunities on both sides of the pitch it was Gondolin who took the lead again with Egalmoth scoring his first goal of the tournament from an ingenious single-performance by Idril who had been getting warmer game by game – but to both it applied they had performed well under the level that had been anticipated from them.

Getting the lead again half an hour before the end Gondolin dropped back a bit flexibly strengthening the defenses on the cost of their attacking power. With some more room to breathe in the midfield Beleriand went for it with all they dared. Even if they were forced to meet a few really frightening counter-attacking by Gondolin, the tactics eventually paid off and a fair ten minutes before the final whistle the game was even once again. After a strong pressure around Gondolin’s box Nellas finally found a gap from between the defenders and Marach made a rightly timed run for it while Nellas, who was very much used to work with men, delivered. And Marach scored with a kingly shot the leader of men should.

Beleriand was deliberately after one more goal the last ten minutes, but Gondolin heightened their defenses and started pressing the Beleriand forwards and midfielders again shutting them off from any decent scoring-positions while making quick counter-attacks in hopes of scoring themselves, but also for keeping the Beleriand defenses on full alert.


The game ended a draw. It was a disappointment to Gondolin, but to Belerianders it was a huge disappointment. Somehow they had believed in their qualification all the time. Forcing Pelori to a draw had really heightened their spirits and even if they were hard-pressed also in this game they still thought they had what it takes to qualify from this tough a group. But it was no to them this time.

The feelings were quite mixed in the post-game press-conference where the representatives of both teams were questioned by the media. Marach was adamant about the talent and skills of his team and actually blamed both the AFA- and hosting-organisations. “We would have qualified in almost any other group. And we will be demanding a public inquiry into what happened with those dwarves coming innocently to support our team. That you can understand has stressed the players as we haven’t been able to get rid of the feeling the local authorities have something against us – or at least something against us having a fair chance in the competition.”

When asked whether he had nothing to blame himself for, he first denied there being anything, but after some pressing he was willing to admit they could try to get into the recruiting business earlier the next year to get a bit more of the huge Beleriand talent brought into their team as well.

When asked about the dwarves he had this to say: “Well, they are naturally upset and feel wronged, almost attacked upon personally, and they will not leave these lands with any warm memories. And they are determined the case should be studied and those responsible punished, how high that chain of wrongdoers might go. But I’m afraid you’re not going to see Telchar and Gamil Zirak representing team Beleriand the next year as they seem to be having something on the works they’re not willing to disclose of quite yet. But I don’t know anything more about it.”

Turgon on the other hand seemed much less self-confident, and at times he looked more like confused facing the critical questions.

The AKM: “It seems that not only many fans of Gondolin but even some of the players are asking whether they backed the wrong house this year. Many seem to be yarning back to Maeglin and Aredhel to lead the team. What is your take on these views?”

Turgon: “Well… well, I can’t know what other people think or be responsible for them… That might be the view of some, but you must ask them.”

Gondolin Evening Standard: “Are you going to cling on the captaincy or are you ready to give up on your own initiative?”

Turgon: “Deals are always affairs between two sides and I think it is premature to jump into any conclusions now… but, erm… well I can see such a future where I’d need to reconsider my place in the tournament.”

Beleriand 2-2 Gondolin
tot shots 13-14
on target 5-7
GOALS:
*24, 0-1 Turgon (Salgant)
*40, 1-1 Belegund (Aegnor)
*60, 1-2 Egalmoth (Idril)
*77, 2-2 Marach (Nellas)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Beleriand- Telchar, Daeron, Angrod
*Gondolin- Meleth, Salgant, Thorondor



With the afternoon game ending as a draw both Valinorian teams were through to the knock-out phase. That in turn focused the dynamics of the late game into the battle-out between Manwë and Tulkas; the battle between conservative defensive football vs. a more flaring, attacking style of the game. Some commentators even talked about the stakes been a lot higher this way than they would have been if it had been “only” a question of qualifying.

Everyone knows the Valier have and have had some disagreements between them, but through history they have always been quite good in handling the media hiding most inner rifts away from the public. And you all have probably heard those rumors about the compilers of Valaquenta sentenced to solitary confinement at some remote location to the farthest west of the West – or even to the abyss by some rumors. But here the rift was open and public. Tulkas had challenged Manwë stealing part of his team with him and openly announcing he’d play different, and he’d play better; not contending himself to play one goal wins deliberatively as to keep things calm and friendly. And now with nothing else to play for the game was clearly reduced (or elevated, actually) to a contest between the superpowers and their different ideologies – on a Valar scale, like it was no row over different views of say Gondorians and Rohanians, or the orcs of Orthanc vs. the orc of Sauron.

And what a classic the audiences witnessed in Valmar that evening! If you have a frend who says he doesn’t understand why football is such a great sport by some people, get the official dvd/Blue Ray from the AFA-licenced dealer nearest to you and show him this game. If your friend doesn’t become a football fan the AFA will be returning half of the purchase price to you!

Now the game would have been great just because of the highest possible quality of the players on the field (resulting in some most dashing individual & team performances seen in this year’s tournament) and the stakes the teams were playing (which could be sensed in the field with both teams playing every situation to the end with stamina – but also as the unceasing attentiveness and nervousness of the crowds creating the athmophere to the game). But it had yet another facet that originated from purely tactical issues, but which really set this game alight. And that was, that both of the teams wanted to possess the ball, to have it with their team, to build up great combination-attacks with chains of quick passing. And they normally had it their way as they normally dominated the field with their individual skills and tactical wisdom many other teams lacked. But now they had more or less an equal opponent who was not ready to give in an inch. “The ball was fought over more fiercely than the Silmarils in the past” – like Hunter U. Nogson put it in his tweet.

But there was also a tactical difference between the teams – which actually did a lot to affect the outcome of the game. Pelori plays a defensive and conservative game which means they have the philosophy of “defense first” – and thus attack rather with longer preparation and longer chains of passing taking care always they have their back secured if they happen to lose the ball at some stage of the build-up. Valinor on the on the other hand plays balanced game where they do not wish to either send everyone up or pull everyone down, but want to maintain a balanced spread of players throughout the field at all times – which enables them to do some flashingly fast turn-overs sending the ball from their own box to the opponent’s box with three or four mid-ranged passes in a question of seconds in the best situation – or to exert a really tiring pressure to the opponent’s build-up being spread evenly on all areas of the pitch and thus giving the opponent no free-rides while they advance.

But yes, the game itself. As many had anticipated, team Valinor came into the game with furious energy while Pelori played more coolly – which didn’t mean they played it sloppily or passively, had they done either, Valinor would have scored immediately. But with tough defensing they managed to suffocate the Valinor attacks time by time again. Then again, when Pelori gained the control of the ball the Valinor-players were immediately on them and Pelori’s slow build-ups were challenged left and right all over the field until the ball was stolen and Valinor went for it with 110% energy again only to bang their heads on the toughest defense.

That is the basic view of half one. Which gives one just a rough outline of the overall dynamics of the half. But what performances! What fighting! Nerdanel and Miriel threatened the Pelori defenses a few times slipping off the pressure – but one time it was Manwë who stretched to a fabulous save, another time it was the post (which didn’t stretch) that denied them a goal. Arien’s free-kick from 20 meters went just a few inches wide in a situation where Manwë was clearly late, while Yavanna’s genius high-shot over Manwë, who had come a bit too long way forwards from his goal when Namo lost the ball, landed on the roof of the goal.

But Pelori had their chances as well. Quite early on the game Pelori were building a pressure when Lórien seduced both Tulkas and Vairë to him and fooled them with the last second pass to Eönwë – who missed the goal just barely left to shoot from a totally open place. Varda forced Ingwë to a few spectacular saves on the first half from some neat build-ups of the whole offense of Pelori – the last one of them Ingwë managed to tip away with his fingertips just barely as the ball hit the post then and went over the line.

The following corner-kick produced the first goal of the match. Eönwë gave the corner sending the ball into the crowded center in front of the goal. Indis got her head on it and headed it forwards… but it landed straight on Nienna’s feet 25 meters from the goal. The rush in front of the goal got out of order for a moment, the defenders looking for the nearest target they should tie down as Pelori attackers were trying to relocate - and Nienna looked like she was going to return the ball back into the front of the goal for a header. But she didn’t. Instead, Oromë made a run away from the goal and towards Nienna who saw his sudden move and passed the ball towards him – and Oromë performed a wonderful turn-around kick from full speed getting both the defenses and Ingwë by surprise. It happened like in two seconds of which on the latter second the defenses realized what was happening but by then they had no time to react. And the shot was perfect; to the upper left corner of the goal far out of reach for Ingwë. Just four minutes before the half-time Pelori had taken the lead!

The second half began with more or less the same. Oftentimes when football commentators write this sentence they actually mean “it was soo boring the second half as well”. But not this time! It was exactly the similar kind of action packed, beautiful, hair-raising, talented, tough… you name your superlatives-game like the first half.

But the tactical imbalance between the teams some keenest eyes might have noticed on the first half started to show more openly on the second half. So while Pelori had everyone defending when Valinor was attacking – even Eönwë and Varda were seen tackling the opponents deep down in their half of the pitch – Tulkas kept on with his balanced spread of players. And that lead to nasty situations the few times when Valinor was not able to break the Pelori passing-game as then the defenses were easily outnumbered as Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien were especially told not to run to the help of them – and even Yavanna and Olwë were strongly discouraged by Tulkas to meddle in the affairs lower their places in the field. And from one just this kind of situation Pelori made it 2-0.

With some quick passing from about 30 meters to the box Pelori managed to create a 4 against 3 situation. Oromë and Ilmarë took with them a defender each (Tulkas was especially following Oromë after his goal and Ilmarë made a fake diagonal run forcing Vairë to trail him) thus leaving Eönwë and Varda together against Indis – and Lórien played the ball fast to the two who with a few touches got behind her. Varda served and Eönwë hammered the ball in from a few yards right of the penalty spot leaving Ingwë no chance.

That was so unexpectable! Pelori was leading 2-0 less than half an hour to go! The crowds had seen an even game, they had seen Pelori going 1-0, they had seen all that had happened on the second half… but if you had asked a random spectator, who would score next, 70% would have said Valinor. But was not what happened.

Anyway, Valinor started a unforeseen fight back. They had almost half an hour – and they went for it with all they had. There were only few major attacks built up carefully by Pelori during the rest of the game. Valinor players were just all over the place cutting any lines of passing from the Pelori if Manwë’s team managed to steal the ball for a moment – and getting the ball back to the team Valinor, in a wink of an eye they were on full attack again. But the Pelori defense was tougher the crowds had ever seen.

Many football aficionados use the term “Manwë’s defense”. It means a defense so thick and tough the opponent has no way of getting through. Now this had to be “Manwë’s defense 2.0”. For had there been any lesser team against Valinor that last half an hour Valinor could have scored ten goals or something. Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien were showing both their skills and dedication to the fullest with stupendous tricks with all the heel-passes, dribbles, fake-runs turning into real runs, switching of places… you call it. And Yavanna, Estë and Nessa were giving the defenses hard times as well.

If someone hadn’t noticed it yet, Tulkas’ team was a real female powerhouse! Especially in this game where Ingwë had allowed two goals (even if the execution of the shots had been of master-level), Tulkas and Vairë had not been able to shut out the Pelori offence everytime and Olwë had been quite invisible. But the ladies really made a show of the last half an hour.

And they scored on 79th minute. The goal had been “hanging in the air” for quite a time, but a fair ten minutes before the final whistle Arien, Miriel and Nerdanel found the right footmarks sawing the Pelori defense into pieces. In all fairness one would call for the rule a goal could have two passers put on record in football like in ice-hockey – but it’s such a conservative sports any such idea will take a thousand years to become reality – like video-checking or anything.

This time it was Arien who was left with no mark on her statistics even if she was an integral part of the goal both building up the situation in the first place and then on the decisive moment drawing both Nienna and Námo on her and passing the ball to the two others. That doesn’t mean Nerdanel’s trick freeing herself from Gwaihir wasn’t spectacular, or that Miriel’s shot when hard pressed by Nahar wasn’t pure genius; not the least as coming from between the legs of the mighty horse Manwë had no chance to see it coming and was totally out of the whole situation.

The last ten minutes were just the greatest thriller one could buy a ticket for. Valinor were pressing even harder for an equalizer and Pelori gathered all their players under the ball. Some even claim they saw Manwë having sweat-drops on his forehead which for a goalie were not so much from the physical exercise but the mental tension.

But Valinor ran out of time. They had two decent opportunities to score in the last ten minutes, but on the first one Gwaihir managed to divert the freeing pass by Nerdanel with the tip of his wing at the last moment and on another Arien dived just a few inches short of a pass from the flank by Yavanna.

Pelori won the game and the group. Manwë was smiling calmly but not too cordially not to outrage his brother any more. Tulkas was clearly enraged but held himself under control with all the brothers and sisters and Maiar and high-elves around.

But Manwë did approach his brother pulling off his Pelori jersey while he came closer, and offered his shirt to him willing to exchange it to his shirt, like the traditional football gesture goes showing the player who suggests the change appreciates you or holds you in a high esteem, or stresses your friendship over a heated game. In front of the tens of thousands Tulkas had no chance but to accept the offer and he pulled off his shirt as well and gave it to Manwë. The crowds cheered with the gesture of fairness and friendship, but it was clear that to Manwë Tulkas’ shirt would be a trophy of his victory over the brother who tried to rebel, but for Tulkas it would be a bitter reminder of his brother beating him. No surprise Tulkas didn’t pull Manwë’s shirt on him – and Manwë didn’t want to provoke him anymore and also left the stadium his torso naked only hanging Tulkas’ shirt in his arm.

A small incident was though recorded by the media when the teams walked out of the field and into the locker-rooms. For Nessa and Oromë chanced to come walking side by side. Then Oromë had looked at his sister with a smirk and asked: “Wasn’t your mighty husband of the opinion that one goal wins are boring?”

After that the accounts spread and no one knows for sure how it continued as they went into the tunnel leading into the lockers right there, but some media report that Nessa had hit her brother, while some others say she just ignored him; but there is also the story that Nessa had been quite upset calling her brother a traitor, and that had he just answered the call of Tulkas, things would be a lot better.


Tulkas never appeared to the after-game press-conference, but Manwë did, even he was sparing his words. Actually he only wished to make a statement. It was short, and went like this:

Manwë: “I’m not going to answer any questions tonight. But I will make a statement. I know there has been a lot of controversy over this group in general and there will be some of this game in particular. Now you are free to think about both of them as you like. It’s not our duty to be your thought-police. But we – and here I mean myself and the honourable defender of my squad, Mandos, Namo to some, – are the ones to interpret Eru’s vision and we are in charge of executing it. It is a heavy duty and it might go sometimes against what we would will ourselves, and we do feel burdened obeying the vision. But that’s what we have to do. I know this will not answer directly to the two questions you wish to ask from me, but to those of you wise enough, you’ll see I have come clean with it. Now thank you all for your interest, but this is it this time.”

Pelori 2-1 Valinor
tot shots 14-16
on target 7-6
GOALS:
*41, 1-0 Orome (Nienna)
*63, 2-0 Eonwe (Varda)
*79, 2-1 Miriel (Nerdanel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Pelori- Gwaihir, Nahar
*Valinor- Yavanna, Indis


Final results, Group G

Pelori 7p. 5-3(+2)
Valinor 6p. 7-4(+3)

Beleriand 2p. 4-6(-2)
Gondolin 1p. 4-7(-3)

Pelori will face the runners up from Group B and Valinor will meet the winners of group B.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Standings:



(1) secured first seed
(2) secured second seed
(x) eliminated

Bracket:



Power Ranking:



(Teams in bold are group leaders; teams in italics are eliminated.)

Greatest gain:

• +9 The Forest
• +7 Anduin
• +3 Barad-dûr, Hithlum
• +2 Tol Eressëa, Beleriand

Greatest loss:

• -9 Mordor
• -7 Númenor
• -5 Dunharrow
• -3 Gondor, Shire-Bree Utd

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking--the lower the aggregate, the higher the rank. Ties are broken by a) win-draw-loss-record; b) goal differential; and c) goals scored.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; b) greater number of shots made; and c) lowest aggregate of defensive ranking of the other three teams in the group.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; b) least amount of shots allowed; and c) lowest aggregate of offensive ranking of the other three teams in the group.

Phantasy Numbers:
(Players in italics are from eliminated teams.)

GOALS + ASSISTS
4+2
Túrin (Doriath)

4+0
Ancalagon (Angband)
Hador (Hithlum)

3+2
Bombadil (The Forest)

3+1
Gothmog (Anfauglith)
Legolas (Lothlórien)

3+0
Arien (Valinor)
Húrin (Doriath)
Scatha (Wliderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

2+4
Maeglin (Anfauglith)

2+3
Curufin (Hithlum)
Glorfindel (Eregion)

2+2
Maedhros (Himring)
Thuringwethil (Angband)
Elros (Westernesse)
Celegorm (Hithlum)
Léod (Dunharrow)

1+3
Beleg (Doriath)
Sauron (Wilderland)
Fëanor (Lothlórien)

GOALKEEPER - SAVES
18 saves
1. Elrond (Eregion) 18/19 - 94.7%

16 saves
2. Ohtar (Barad-dûr) 16/21 - 76.2%
3. Aldor (Dunharrow) 16/21 - 76.2%

14 saves
4. Fram (Anduin) 14/18 - 77.8%
5. Orodreth (Tirion) 14/21 - 66.7%
6. Imlach (Hithlum) 14/24 - 58.3%

GOALKEEPER - SAVE %

1. Tar-Atanamir (Westernesse) 9/9 - 100.0%
2. Elrond (Eregion) 18/19 - 94.7%
3. Huan (Doriath) 11/12 - 91.7%
4. Galadriel (Lothlórien) 10/11 - 90.9%
5. ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth) 8/9 - 88.9%
6. Grimbeorn (Wilderland) 9/11 - 81.8%
7. Amandil (Tol Eressëa) 9/11 - 81.8%

YELLOW CARDS
3 yellow cards
Amrod (Himring)
Orophin (Anduin)
Balrog #4 (Anfauglith)
Alien (The Downer)
Castamir (Minas Morgul)
Angamaitë (Minas Morgul)
Denethor II (Minas Tirith)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bracket:



Power Ranking:



(Teams in bold are quarterfinalists, teams in italics are eliminated.)

Greatest gain:

• +6 Tol Eressëa*
• +5 Tirion*
• +4 Barad-dûr*
• +2 Eregion

*[These teams were below the top 16 in the previous Power Ranking.]

Greatest loss:

• -2 Wilderland, Valinor, Minas Morgul
• -1 Tol-in-Gaurhoth, Misty Mts, The Forest

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking--the lower the aggregate, the higher the rank. Ties are broken by a) goal differential; and b) the Power Rank of their opponent.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least amount of shots allowed.

Phantasy Numbers:
(Players in italics are from eliminated teams.)

GOALS + ASSISTS
5+3
Túrin (Doriath)

5+0
Arien (Valinor)

4+0
Ancalagon (Angband)

3+4
Maeglin (Anfauglith)

3+3
Glorfindel (Eregion)
Elros (Westernesse)
Fëanor (Lothlórien)

3+2
Bombadil (The Forest)
Eönwë (Pelóri)
NogWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Legolas (Lothlórien)

3+1
Gothmog (Anfauglith)
Smaug (Wilderland)
Eärendil (Eregion)
GwathWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)

3+0
Húrin (Doriath)
Scatha (Wilderland)

2+4
Sauron (Wilderland)

2+3
Míriel (Valinor)

2+2
Thuringwethil (Angband)
Ar-Pharazôn (Westernesse)

GOALKEEPER - RANKING

1. 95.8% (23/24) Elrond (Eregion)
2. 93.8% (15/16) Huan (Doriath)
3. 92.3% (12/13) ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
4. 88.9% (16/18) Tar-Atanamir (Westernesse)
5. 84.2% (16/19) Galadriel (Lothlórien)
6. 82.4% (14/17) Manwë (Pelóri)
7. 82.4% (14/17) Amandil (Tol Eressëa)
8. 79.0% (15/19) Ungoliant (Angband)
9. 77.3% (17/22) Caradhras (Misty Mts)
10. 73.9% (17/23) Ingwë (Valinor)
11. 72.4% (21/29) Ohtar (Barad-dûr)
12. 72.2% (13/18) Grimbeorn (Wilderland)
13. 65.4% (17/26) Eärnur (Minas Morgul)
14. 64.3% (18/28) Orodreth (Tirion)
15. 61.5% (16/26) Old Man Willow (The Forest)
16. 55.0% (11/20) Huor (Anfauglith)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Doriath vs Valinor

• Doriath Off > Valinor Def
• Doriath Def = Valinor Off

Tirion had proven that Doriath's defence is not actually impregnable, and Valinor is a better team offensively than Tirion (averaging almost 3 goals and 16 shots (7 on target) vs almost 2 and 15 (7) for Tirion against non-Shire-Bree teams.) So they could score. The problem is how to stop Doriath's shooters from doing the same to them, or worse. The Valinorean defence conceded two early goals to Wilderland, necessitating a furious second-half rally. Allowing a much stronger Doriath team to do the same would dash their hopes of advancing to the semis.

Doriath 4:2 Valinor

Angband vs Eregion

• Angband Off = Eregion Def
• Angband Def = Eregion Off

We may have underestimated the resilience of Tol Eressëa's defence, limiting the Angband offensive machine to but a single goal. Amandil in particular has risen to the occasion, which makes us wonder how much Angband's front line could do against Elrond (a better GK than Amandil) and his defenders, who held a determined Bombadil and his inspired squad scoreless.

Eregion's 3rd goal against the Forest could be a message to their next opponent--yes, they are primarily a defensive team, but they can shoot, too. The problem is if they could do the same against Angband's defence, which has held up against all but most determined attackers (like the forwards of Hithlum and Anfauglith scoring 2 each against Ungoliant and Morgoth in an average of 13 shots (6 on target)). Eregion has managed just about the same number of shots and shots on targets against all their previous opponents, but none of them are of the same level defensively as Angband.

It may end up in a penalty shoot-out. Elrond and Ungoliant are not that far apart in skill, but Eregion has only Glorfindel and Eärendil as quality shooters. Angband has more.

Angband 2:2 Eregion (Angband wins in penalties 3-2.)

Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs Westernesse

• Tol-in-Gaurhoth Off = Westernesse Def
• Tol-in-Gaurhoth Def < Westernesse Off

This is Tol-in-Gaurhoth's first serious test, and what a test it is. The strength of the Westernesse offense has already been proven--scoring almost at will against quality defensive teams Númenor and Tol Eressëa, and bludgeoning the struggling Anfauglith back line (with defending champion GK Huor in front of the net) with three goals. ShastaWolf and the three defenders would be hard-pressed to stop them. And so the game would hinge on how well the Werewolves's offence would do against the Westron defence. Anfauglith has ended Tar-Atanamir's shutout streak, but they are a tested team that has fought against the defence of Morgoth's fortress and not come out lacking. The TiG strikers have had a cake walk so far. How would they fare against one of the best defences in the league?

Tol-in-Gaurhoth 1:3 Westernesse

Pelóri vs Lothlórien

• Pelóri Off = Lothlórien Def
• Pelóri Def < Lothlórien Off

Fëanor has woken up! And it bodes ill for their next opponents.

Lothlórien's defence faced its toughest test in their last match, and, despite yielding 2 goals and 17 shots (8 on target) against Tirion, they have done well enough. The Pelóri offence is not in the same level (averaging less than 2 goals in 13 shots (6 on target), which means the Golden Wood's back line would not be hard-pressed like they were in the Round of 16. (Although they would have to be alert against Eönwë and Varda's counter-attacks.)

Pelóri's defence has not been as impressive as it had been in the friendlies, but they have still been solid, winning the Group of Death by allowing only 1 goal and 11 shots (4 on target) per game, including against a high-octane Valinor offence. Most of Lothlórien's front line has not yet been tested against such a quality defensive team, but with Fëanor's resurgence and Galadriel listening to his wisdom, that might be enough to tip the scales.

Pelóri 1:2 Lothlórien

[the phantom]

(Eliminated players in italics)

31

• GK **Elrond (Eregion)

30

29

• FW **Turin (Doriath)

28

27

• MF *Glorfindel (Eregion)

26

25

24

• FW *Maeglin (Angfauglith)

23

• GK **Huan (Doriath)
• DF **Melian (Doriath)

22

• MF Legolas (Lothlorien)

21

• FW **Feanor (Lothlorien)
• FW Elros (Westernesse)

20

• GK *Galadriel (Lothlorien)
• GK *Tar Atanamir (Westernesse)
• GK ShastaWolf (TIG)
• DF *Beren (Doriath)
• DF *Celebrimbor (Eregion)
• FW *Sauron (Wilderland)

19

• DF Elwe (Doriath)
• FW Arien (Valinor)

18

• FW *Bombadil (Forest)
• FW Eonwe (Pelori)

17

• DF **Fingolfin (Angfauglith)
• DF Erestor (Eregion)
• DF Malbeth (Westernesse)
• MF *Hurin (Doriath)
• FW *NogWolf (TIG)
• FW *Miriel (Valinor)
• FW Curufin (Hithlum)

16

• GK *Manwe (Pelori)
• GK Caradhras (Misty Mts)
• GK Amandil (Tol Eressea)
• DF *Ulmo (Tol Eressea)
• DF *Namo (Pelori)
• DF Carcharoth (Doriath)
• DF Celeborn (Lothlorien)
• MF *Finrod (Tirion)
• MF Ar Adunakhor (Westernesse)
• MF Leod (Anduin)
• FW *Ancalagon (Angband)

[Nogrod]

Doriath
vs. Tirion 4-1
vs. Himring 3-0
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 4-0
vs. Minas Morgul 4-0

4-0-0
15-1
22,4% 37(67) – 16(48) 93,8%

Valinor
vs. Gondolin 3-1
vs. Beleriand 3-1
vs. Pelori 1-2
vs. Wilderland (OT) 3-2

3-0-1
10-6
15,6% 28(64) – 23(50) 73,9%

Looking at stats from any area of the play it looks like Doriath is about 25-30% better than Valinor, except in the overall shots taken and allowed where Doriath is only a marginal 5% better – and of course the goals allowed area where they are almost 85% on top of Valinor.

But what do these numbers tell us? Well, nothing and everything, as the statisticians tend to say. Let’s start with why the stats don’t matter here.

Which one would win the game if set against each other, Shire-Bree or Gondolin? Himring or Beleriand? Tirion or Pelori? Minas Morgul or Wilderland?

So if the stats give a general, say 30% advantage for Doriath, one could also say that the odds for the opponents Valinor has faced thus far to win the opponents Doriath has faced would be at least the same, if not higher. Thus making it more or less even.

To make a difference between the team one has then to go for some of the more independent stats. Two stats the AKM believes in more than others are the scoring percentage and the keeper’s saving percentage – and even if one can say Doriath played in a much easier group, both stats leaning stongly in Doriath’s favor can’t be dismissed.

So we’d say Doriath are the slight favourites to win, but not in a walk in the park –manner some see it, as they are really put to test here – one could say the first time in this year’s tournament. Anything could happen here, not the least because Valinor are Valar, and they have Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien…



Angband
vs. Hithlum 4-2
vs. TheDowner 3-0
vs. Anfaughlith 2-2
vs. Tol Eressea 1-0

3-1-0
10-4
18,2% 27(55) – 19(48) 79%

Eregion
vs. Gondor 2-0
vs. Barad Dûr 2-0
vs. Eregion 3-1
vs. The Forest 3-0

4-0-0
10-1
19,2% 27(52) – 24(52) 95,8%

The first glance at the teams would suggest the game would be played between two more or less even attackers, but that Eregion would have a way better defense, mainly because of heroic Elrond at their goal. But the AKM will not be satisfied with that kind of surface-analysis and is willing to go further with the game set-up here as well.

Let’s start with the big questinmark: is Angband’s defense that much weaker? To be honest it is not. Elrond is the leader of the goal-keeper stats and is a remarkably great keeper but the defense is not all about the goalie and also about the defenders, but is a lot about the opponent’s trigger-happiness – and the quality of the opposing offense overall too. And there we have clear difference.

Now Eregion has sailed to this stage without needing to face any offensive powerhouses, while Angband has played against both Hithlum (with Curufin and Celegorm & Hador) and Anfaughlith (with Maeglin, Gothmog and Fingolfin); two teams who live for attacking and have the quality to score. Looking at it from that POV makes Angband defense look a way better the stats show. Eregion has faced thus far Gondor, Eriador and Barad Dûr – and an anemic The Forest – and still they have allowed about as many shots as Angband has! And anyway: the three top teams on group C score together 26 goals – while the top three of group D scored only 16! So the challenge the defenses have met are far from equal.

On offence is tight as well. Tilion has only shown occasional sparks and Ancalagon and Thurihngwethil have carried the flag with some nice back up from Tevildo, and from Morgoth from defense. So even if their number one star has not been at his best yet, they have made a confident attack on a larger front. On Eregion’s side the things are more or less the same even if one could say they have no untapped hero-power that would have been sleeping thus far. Glorfindel has been his dashing self and Eärendil has been good beside him, while Elladan and Elrohir have been helping them out from behind.

So as the AKM sees it, it is a question of Eregion meeting their first offensive team with quality and at the same time the first team with solid defenses. So will Elrond stand as well against quality-opposition and will Glorfindel and Eärendil be able to score against a league tougher defense they have met thus far? If the answer to both these questions is no, then Angband will win easily. If it is yes, it will be a really tight match.



Tol-In-Gaurhoth
vs. The Forest 3-0
vs. Nargothrond 3-0
vs. Mordor 3-1
vs. Barad-Dur 3-0

4-0-0
12-1
18,2% 32(66) – 13(37) 92,3%

Westernesse
vs. Mithrim 4-0
vs. Tol Eressëa 2-0
vs. Númenor 2-0
vs. Angfauglith 3-2

4-0-0
11-2
19,3% 26(57) –18(38) 88,9%

Here again we find a statistician’s nightmare. Both teams look more or less equal on most areas: goals scored, goals allowed, the efficiency of shooting, total number of shots allowed, the goalkeepers saving percentage... But there are two stats that differ somewhat: the number of shots on goal and the number of shots on goal allowed. IN those two T-I-G seems to have something of an edge.
So the question then becomes: are those differences significant, and also, are the similarities actually telling of similarities? Time for the AKM to take a look at them.

First of all the number of shots allowed eg. the tightness of the defenses: after the group phase the numbers were basically even. After that Westernesse played Anfaughlith where as T-I-G played Barad Dûr. The ensuing difference is wiped away immediately. It’s also good to notice that Tar Atanamir’s saving percentage was 100% before meeting Anfaughlith – a kind of team T-I-G has yet to meet.

The number of shots and shots on goal on the other hand show a steady advance for the T-I-G. They have consistently shot a bit more. But a look at the group-stats makes an interesting reading here as well. Of the other teams in their groups only Mithrim from group F gave in as many shots as the three other teams from group E did. And to just make it more particular: Tol Eressëa is one of the tightest defending teams of the whole tournament, and Númenor were tough defenders as well – which can’t be said of Nargothrond, Mordor or The Forest at all. So suddenly the starts start to look a bit different as it looks only quite natural Westernesse hasn’t shot that much.

So all in all, even if the numbers say T-I-G has something like a slight advance we tend to think the tournament of the werewolves is over this time and predict Westernesse will win. It will be a tough game, but still. The final factor in here is that T-I-G hasn’t faced any real tough teams thus far while Westernesse has – and still the stats look pretty much equal.



Pelori
vs. Beleriand 1-1
vs. Gondolin 2-1
vs. Valinor 2-1
vs Misty Mts. 2-0

3-1-0
7-3
13,5% 23(52) – 17(44) 82,4%

Lothlórien
vs. Minas Morgul 2-1
vs. Minas Tirith 3-0
vs. Dunharrow 2-0
vs. Tirion 3-2

4-0-0
10-3
18,5% 30(54) – 19(49) 84,2%

This is one of the games one would not like to predict on. It always seems from the stats that Manwë’s teams are not that good and still, more often than not, they prevail in the end. Some say this will be a duel between Manwë and Fëanor. It might be that. But it is also a fight of Galadriel against Varda and Eönwë.

When meeting some real offensive talent against Tirion, Galadriel gave away two goals immediately. That doesn’t predict good on their side. Then again Pelori hasn’t played against the best goalies either.

On the other hand, both teams have met only one strongly attacking team. The results: Pelori beat Valinor 2-1 while Lothlórien beat Tirion 3-2. And as only a fool would say Tirion would have any chances beating Valinor (Doriath beat Tirion 4-1!), it looks like Pelori’s defences are stronger after all.

The attack then? Lothlórien has been scoring confidently 2 or 3 goals in every game. Legolas has been very good and Fëanor has flashed his talents a few times – but only flashed them. In previous years it was always Túrin and Fëanor going neck by neck leading the scoreboard, but this year Fëanor has given no real challenge to the son of Húrin. Will he set alight in this game – and is it enough facing the defense by Manwë and Mandos? But clearly he is not what he used to be as one can’t blame the toughness of the opposition this time around.

Honestly speaking, Pelori has met with tougher defenses than Lothlórien has and thus the difference in goals made and shots on goal that seem to favour Lothlórien diminish a lot in signifigance.

It would be so compelling to say it is a duel between Manwë and Fëanor and leave it at that. But that of course is not the way to do it. So the AKM hold Pelori slight favourites to the game, but if it comes to a shoot-out we would possibly predict a different outcome…

[the phantom]

The Game Within The Game
The Phantom, "The Downer" Sporting News

We all know what is going on in the Arda Cup, so I won't waste any time writing about that. It's only the biggest sporting event in Middle Earth! It's receiving plenty of coverage from fine journalists. What I want to talk about is a game within the game that has been going on here on the Downs. I'm talking about the Arda Cup Phantasy Competition.

If you haven't checked the standings lately, guess who's back on top? None other than the winner from three years ago- Gwathagor. He has always sworn that he would win another title, and here he is threatening once again. If you'll recall he was also sitting in first place at this stage last year, but couldn't hold off the late charge of Boromir, and ended up in a jumble with Nog, Skip, and Nerwen in the final standings.

But this year he has a bit more of a cushion and will be more difficult to catch without help from pre-tournament predictions. Yes, don't forget those! They are worth a potential fifty points, so the championship is still wide open!

The ever competitive Nog is sitting in second place currently. He's been a hard-luck case in years past, always in the hunt but never on top at the end. Will luck be with him this year?

Next is Boro, who is looking to become the first ever repeat winner, and if anyone can mount a furious prediction-fueled comeback we know it's him.

Just behind him is Nilp and Eomer, who have been charging hard the past couple rounds. Watch out for them- they're on a roll.

A couple points down from there is the ever dangerous Skip, who is another one that has a reputation for strong finishes.

The next group down will have a bit more trouble coming back (they need pre-tournament predictions to hit for them), but they're all bunched tightly and there is pride at stake and no doubt they wish to at least beat those around them- Nerwen, Morm, Kuru, Shasta, and Galadriel. Bringing up the rear is Sally and Inzil, who are anxious to put on a spurt and send some of the group above them to the bottom of the standings. They are also keen to break the 200 point mark, as that would put them solidly ahead of last year's rear group and give them confidence for a change in luck next season.

And as a special treat, here is a brief statement from each of this year's participants.

Boro (They Have a Cave Troll): Guess who's within striking distance people? Ha ha- the comeback king, me! That trophy is going to stay in my living room this year.
Eomer (Bletherin’ Blellums): I had the most group prediction points, and you watch- I'll gain the most pre-tourney prediction points too. And combined with this nice run I'm having... This thing is mine.
Galadriel (Unnamed Horror): This is my first ever try at this and I'm probably going to finish in the top half. I'm a natural, aren't I? After I get some experience the rest of you won't stand a chance.
Gwath (The Lynch Mob): Guess who's sitting on top again? It's- no! Not Boro, it's- No! Not Skip or Nog either. I was implying that- NO! Not Saucepan Man! It's ME!! GWATH is on top! You need to give me my proper respect.
Inzil (Inzil’s Ignobles): You mean this isn't like golf? Oh dear... I've got some ground to make up then. No matter- with a late charge I will relegate someone else to the bottom. Simple as that.
Kuru (Kuru's Scrubs): I'm just not cut out for a long competition like this. I'm more of a natural sprinter.
Morm (Wrath of the Monkey): Six people ahead of me in the standings, six people behind. *sigh* Always mediocre.... Grrr! But I will change my fortunes with a strong finish!
Nerwen (Notorious Nerwenites): I seem to be a bit off my game this year. But it's not completely out of reach. I'll give it my best, and at the least I'll beat that blasted Shasta.
Nilp (The Numbering Horde): Oh yeah! On a hot streak! Just gotta keep it burning and I'll shoot past Boro this round, Nog in the next, and pass Gwath on the final turn. Boo-yah!
Nog (Noggportunistics): Always a bridesmaid never a bride, right? But sooner or later my superior strategies will pay off, I'm certain.
Sally (The Cupkicks): Without Wilwa here who am I supposed to be competing with? Meh- at least I have the coolest name.
Shasta (Wolf Pack): Well curses! That last round did not go as planned. But hey, everyone has one bad round. From here on out I'll be good. And at the least I'm going to beat my nemesis, Nerwen.
Skip (The Klong Toey Soi Dogs): Those guys in front of me are looking at each other and playing accordingly. Perfect... Just forget about old Skip here. Pay no attention. I'll just close the gap nice and innocent like, and then BANG! They won't see it coming.

[Boromir88]

Tirion at Lothlorien

This was to be a contest between some of the greatest Elves in the history of Arda. There was also a story line of reunions to be followed. Galadriel would be up against her brother, Finrod, and any enthusiast of Arda football will remember Finrod has so far gotten the better of Galadriel's Lothlorien. Then there was Feanor who had left Tirion last year, to only see them here, in the first round of the playoffs. Feanor's spouse and mother may have left, but his beloved father remains still. The two will likely desire to meet and talk before and after the match.

The Stadium of Dreams in Caras Galadhon was packed with mostly Elves from Lothlorien. Not many locals made the games for Dunharrow, but now that Galadriel finally delivered a playoff caliber team, they were as excited as anyone else to see their home town team in action. Over 12,000 Noldor from Tirion made the journey, and were anticipating a competitive, but overall friendly contest. There may have been some bitterness in the Tirion fans, with Feanor defecting from their team and be drawn into Galadriel's service. They reasoned his temper was not welcome in Tirion, and Galadriel would learn her will was not strong enough to subdue Feanor's rashness. Lothlorien would fall to the careful and steady Finrod, they were sure of it. Whatever the Tirion elves said to try to convince themselves, they were still enamoured by the skill of Fearnor. And truth be told, anyone would rather have Feanor on their team rather than Feanor playing against their team.

*~*~*

As Boro88's whistle blew, starting the game, it appeared Galadriel had decided before she would play defensive and count on Tirion's over-aggression to catch them on counter attack opportunities. However, Finrod was resigned to playing a balanced game and would not make the mistake that Bombadil made, leaving his defense exposed, especially when it was Feanor on the other team. So, Tirion was holding most possession, looking for the lead, and whenever Lothlorien was able to try a counter, the balance of Finrod's plan made it easy for Aule's defense to stop any advance.

In the 16th minute Tirion gained the well deserved lead when Finrod fed Finwe with a tight pass. Finwe had a step on Celeborn, and was in close for a 1-on-1 against Galadriel. Galadriel was staring right into Finwe, trying to psych him out, but Finwe is a professional striker. He did not look at Galadriel, but instead stared straight down, made a clean strike and directed it to the far post beating Galadriel.

The Lady of Lothlorien was not happy with her husband or her defense on that play, as her brother yet again seemed to be getting the better of his sister. And the Tirion fans burst out in applause, blowing their horns. See, they were right, Finrod perceived the mind of Galadriel well. He knew how to beat it and Feanor was beginning to get flustered. Galadriel had ordered a lockdown in front of her net, and Feanor was looking quite alone up front.

Tirion continued to play the style that earned them the lead, and they were clearly looking to expand it. However, Finrod was not willing to commit greater efforts to expand their lead. Aule was doing just fine shutting down any counter attack, but knowing the extreme dangers in discounting Feanor's individual brilliance, Tirion would just stick to the game plan. If it's not broke, don't fix it right? However, in order to gain more goals, Tirion probably needed more players forward, as Gandalf was now up to the challenge at keeping Finwe and Aredhel at bay.

Tirion should have, and probably deserved a greater lead going into the break, but a spectacular display of goal-keeping by Galadriel in the final 5 minutes, kept the game 1-0. Finrod was content having the lead, while Lothlorien just looked relieved only to be down by 1.

Whatever fireworks were blasted off in the Lothlorien locker room at the half, they looked like a completely different team to start the 2nd. Many speculated that Feanor had appealed to Galadriel's desire to win by showing her that waiting for counter-attacking was simply not working against her brother's team. They were in front of a passionate Lothlorien crowd, and playing this negative brand of football. Lothlorien fans did not deserve this product, not with the talent the team had up front this year. Whatever was said, it was a whole new look to Lothlorien and it took Finrod and Aule completely by surprise.

Within 3 minutes Lothlorien was drawn equal. Legolas broke into the box, and Orodreth was anticipating him to shoot, but with a soft back-flip, he left it for Boromir, racing in right behind. Orodreth had no chance. He was getting ready to stop a precise shot to one of the corners by Legolas, not prepared to have to save a patented speeding bullet off Boromir's boot.

Lothlorien continued pressing and Tirion's defense was looking desperate and frantic. That desperation showed as Caranthir slid into his father just a few steps outside the penalty box. Boro88 signalled a free kick to Lothlorien, and it would be a yellow for Caranthir. Many fans of Tirion were not happy with the decision for a yellow, surely Caranthir had no intent to injure his father, and Feanor seemed more proud of his son by trying to stop him from scoring. Or maybe Feanor knew no matter what Caranthir tried, it wasn't going to stop Feanor from getting on the sheet. Caranthir had only delayed the inevitable, as Feanor was set to take a free kick from a dangerous and close position. And as reliable as always, Feanor bent the shot up over Tirion's wall of defenders and it was out of Orodreth's range.

By the time Aule got the defense calmed, only just over 10 minutes had gone by in the 2nd and Tirion was suddenly down 2-1. That lead was not enough for Lothlorien, and this is the dangers of Feanor when he was completely in the zone. He was simply unstoppable, and no other way around it. Not even another 10 minutes had passed from the last goal, and Feanor put in his 2nd goal of the match.

With the 3-1 lead, Lothlorien now withdrew and went into protect mode. But this time the Lothlorien fans were not disappointed, because they had just witnessed 20 minutes of the most offensive football they had every seen out of the Lothlorien team, and they were simply ecstatic. Legolas was actually seen getting his pack of travelling fangirls to start the Feanorian wave. Galadriel did not look thrilled as she was urging her team to stay focused, there was still over 20 minutes of game left and Finrod was not defeated yet.

In the group stages, Lothlorien was always able to comfortably hold onto big leads, but they had not played an offense anywhere near the talents of Tirion. And this time Finrod would be pushing in full gear, but really there was no other choice. It was do or die for Tirion, and they were not going to go down without a fight. Lothlorien missed their opportunity to deliver the killing blow as a 2-goal lead was not all that safe against Tirion. Now Aule and Caranthir began drawing closer, and in the 79th minute Aredhel brought the score to within 1, after Caranthir led her perfectly with a pass.

Anyone watching the game in the final 11 minutes would be tense and on the edge. Lothlorien was trying to hold on to the lead and found it difficult to switch gears to a more offensive plan. Tirion was going all out to get an equalizer and just get the game into overtime. However, Gandalf proved exactly why he was signed onto Lothlorien, as the defense was now suffocating. And others thought that maybe Tirion lost too much firepower with Miriel and Nerdanel's departure? Not trying to take anything away from Finwe, Aredhel and Finrod, but Tirion was lacking just that extra bit of skill that made them threats to score a goal at any time as Gandalf was locking down the box confidentally in the final minutes. Stopping any and all runs that Tirion could muster. Whatever one chooses to believe, all that matters to fans of the game was Tirion was defeated and Lothlorien would be advancing to the quarter-finals for the first time in Arda Cup history.

As Lothlorien exited the field, the home crowd was said to give a great applause to Feanor going into the locker room. Galadriel had always been the Lothlorien favorite, but had never gotten the team far until Feanor's arrival. So, one has to wonder if there was enough glory to go around for Lothlorien to advance further? Or maybe, just maybe, remembering Feanor's comments about the Valar before the tournament, there was enough fiery spirit to get revenge against Manwe in the next round? For Feanor had settled the score against Aule in this round.

Lothlorien 3-2 Tirion
tot shots 14-17
on target 7-8
GOALS:
*16, 0-1 Finwe (Finrod)
*48, 1-1 Boromir (Legolas)
*56, 2-1 Feanor
*63, 3-1 Feanor (Nimrodel)
*79, 3-2 Aredhel (Caranthir)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Lothlorien- Gimli, Amroth
*Tirion- Mahtan, Caranthir, Elemmakil

Lothlorien advances to the quarter-finals to play Pelori

[Boromir88]

QUARTER-FINALS PREVIEW
BoroLXXXVIII Two Towers Network

We shall see if the Felagundian has the staying power to consistently put out those types of predictions. I know I already do. As far as AKM, that used to be one of the best football magazines, but it is so full of kick-backs and payoffs the biases of the sports-writers is clearly revealed.

Previous years the AKM had a love child with the Tirion trio, and seeing as the Tirion trio has split up, apparently they found a new one with the Westernesse team. They so desperately want Westernesse to win this year, they are starting to arbitrarily twist stats. Accuse me of ignoring stats, like Huor's save percentage? Ok, fair enough, but I was trying to weigh in the chances of Huor having a monster play off performance as he consistenly showed in the past. But the AKM is doing something far more dangerous by manipulating stats.

The stats tell the story and to try to factor in who's had the tougher competition to either downplay or boost a team's stats is just impossible. Has TIG played as tough of an opponent as Anfauglith yet? No. But you play the games you're given and all you can do is win them. TIG has been sharp and effective in all their games. While Westernesse has shown vulnerability, especially at the back.

Is it true I was favoring Anfauglith over Westernesse, because Anfauglith was my predicted champion at the beginning of the year? A bit. But keep in mind I was not way off in believing the possibility. They drew with Angband and Westernesse had to storm back with a 1-man advantage to get that win. But now, with my champion team gone, there is no more favoritism factor in these predictions, no more biases. That is not the case for AKM or the Felagundian.

Doriath vs Valinor

This is looking like one of the easier games of the quarter-finals to predict, but I think it's still going to be an exciting, tight game. Valinor's downfall is really their defense and they don't have the power to get into a scoring match with Doriath. And that's the big difference, Doriath is a balanced team that can play you either way you want. They can keep a low scoring defensive battle, or run up the score board. Doriath's talent is inferior to none and can win however way the other team wants to play it. Huan has shown he's not beyond making mistakes and has gotten beat when under pressure. But how much pressure can he be under with Melian's defense in front of him?
Doriath wins 3-2

Angband vs Eregion

This could very easily be another 1-0 win for Angband as this will be a defensive and goal keeping clinic for everyone watching. There is enough scoring talent to each score 1, but the question is who will get to 2 goals first then? Because it's probably going to take over time to get there. Here we favor Angband because Eregion's defense is pretty mediocre, but just looks better because of Elrond's divine goal keeping skill. Angband has to win it in OT, because if it goes to a shoot out we'd favor Eregion's strikers over Angband's. However, if anyone can grind out 2 goals against Elrond, it'll be Melkor.
Angband wins 2-1 in OT.

Tol in Gaurhoth vs Westernesse

Die, Westernesse, die! Oops, can't have any biases here. Ok, we imagine AKM has a love affair with this team because it looks similar to the 2009 champions, Armenolos. Similar, yes, but a few key differences. There is no lynchpin and architect in Sauron as there was in 2009. And instead of having a complete sturdy Numenorean team, they've filled some of the spots with men of a lesser age. Even if these men were some of the greater of their age, they are still lesser men from a lesser age. When up against an actual capable attack, Westernesse's defense does not look at impenetrable and that's what you get when you try to mix Numenoreans with others.

We know TIG can score, we know Westernesse can't keep their goal clean when playing against a team that can score. We also know the wolves have been a stronger and more athletic match up problem for the Numenoreans in the past. The problem has been TIG's aggressive wolvy personality, relying solely on athleticism. This looks like a different wolf pack this year though. They're playing far better as a unit and it's a proven fact that wolves will do anything for survival, even gnaw off their own paws.
TIG wins 3-2. This is another game that goes to OT

Lothlorien vs Pelori

Manwe's team actually shows some life and for the first time has made it into the quarter-finals. And the same goes for Galadriel's team. With a spot to the semi's, this will be interesting. We favor Lothlorien, simply by the past experiences of Feanor and Gandalf who can bring a championship mindset that settles the nerves of Lothlorien. Who on Pelori has made it this far, and what have the Valar ever won? I rest my case.

Not yet though. In all seriousness, this comes down to the talents of Feanor and Gandalf. There will be no question about inspiration for Feanor in this game. And Gandalf knows the mind of his Maiar and Valar very well. He will no doubt have the defense prepared for all the tricks Manwe wants to try to throw at the defense.
Lothlorien wins 2-1

[Nogrod]

It is sad to see the venerable TTN is turning into a yellow paper. We hope we don't hear them getting caught of wiretapping the celebrities' phones and breaking into their voicemails as a standard practise.

--- end of the rhetorical part ---

Whatever TTN says, the AKM will stand for quality journalism backed by the most reliable data given and analyzed by the most cabable journalists in the bussiness. Our individual journalists may have some personal favourites of their own, like we think every enthusiastic football commentator will unavoidably have - a thing which even the TTN seems to acknowledge well themselves. But there is a great difference in liking certain playing-styles, teams, races or individual players and letting those affiliations to affect one's journalism.

The case - and the accusation - TTN brings forth, looks to the AKM both ridiculous and insulting. Here's what we are referring to.

Originally Posted by TTN

They [The AKM] so desperately want Westernesse to win this year, they are starting to arbitrarily twist stats. Accuse me of ignoring stats, like Huor's save percentage? Ok, fair enough, but I was trying to weigh in the chances of Huor having a monster play off performance as he consistenly showed in the past. But the AKM is doing something far more dangerous by manipulating stats.

The stats tell the story and to try to factor in who's had the tougher competition to either downplay or boost a team's stats is just impossible. Has TIG played as tough of an opponent as Anfauglith yet? No. But you play the games you're given and all you can do is win them. TIG has been sharp and effective in all their games. While Westernesse has shown vulnerability, especially at the back.

Let us make a few questions to the editor of the TTN.

How does TTN think that "us wishing for the Westernesse to win" would be in anyway advanced with us saying they could win the game against T-I-G? Does the TTN believe in some kind of incantational magic where if the AKM spells out a prediction it does happen in the real world (how else to interpret the line saying we're doing something "far more dangerous"?): and seemingly from their POV the wrong way as they wish for the T-I-G to win - thus doing just the thing they criticise us of doing aka. taking sides?

And to be true, the AKM does not wish anyone in particular to win or lose. The AKM is no individual blogger fighting his heart out to support a team or another but a respectable news organisation in the service of the public for enlightenment and entertainment.

Secondly, how does TTN think the AKM has "arbitrarily twisted the stats". The stats and their analysis are there in the open for anyone to consider (and in TTN's case, to re-consider) in the AKM article. All the points made by the AKM are fair and balanced. Cutting the main points into a few basic notions, what the AKM said was:

1)
Both teams are very much even statswise, but two differences.

a)
The number of the overall shots allowed (not those allowed on target) slightly favours T-I-G. The AKM reminded the readers that those stats between the two teams were more or less even before the first knock-out round where Westernesse faced the offensive powerhouse Anfaughlith and T-I-G faced the fiasco called Barad Dûr. Unlike TTN says, it is not impossible "to factor in who's had the tougher competition". Or does someone think the number of shots against you would be the same facing Anfaughlith or Barad Dûr?

b)
There is a slight difference in overall shooting (not in the shooting on target though) in favour of T-I-G. The AKM reminded the readers that overall in the group-phase the shots allowed were very different: in group E (T-I-G) the other teams allowed about 41 shots against them whereas on group F (Westernesse) only one team (Mithrim) let the others shot that much, while the two others (Tol Eressëa and Númenor) only allowed 28-30 shots - like 1/4 less. So that is a fac t to be considered. And that is what the AKM said. Nothing more.

2)
We notified the fact that even if Westernesse has conceded two goals while T-I-G has conceded only one, then they gave those two goals to Anfaughlith who has one of the most effective attack this tournament knows of (and here we think TTN can not but agree). Before that game Westernesse had allowed no goals at all and Tar Atanamir's saving percentage was pure 100%. So the comparison between the two goalies should take that into account as Shastawolf has not been tested by a team like Anfaughlith unlike Tar Atanamir has. From that perspective we find little evidence for TTN's claim that Westernesse "has shown vulnerability, especially at the back" - and that was what we wanted to remind our readers about.

3)
From 1a&b the AKM concluded that the stats were more or less equal (and they are equal on all the major parts of the game: the total shots allowed and total shots taken aren't the most important stats), and things being more or less equal statswise, the fact that Westernesse has faced a lot tougher opposition (Anfaughlith, Tol Eressëa) makes them the favourites for the game in the eyes of the AKM.


Let us conclude with a re-quote from TTN:

Originally Posted by TTN

Has TIG played as tough of an opponent as Anfauglith yet? No. But you play the games you're given and all you can do is win them.

Exactly. But if two teams end up with similar stats when one plays some weaker opponents and another tougher ones, then it would be smart to infer there is a difference between the teams favouring the latter. Right? If T-I-G would be the better team they would outshine Westernesse in the stats now, but they don't.

And that's why the AKM believes Westernesse will win. But even there we are cautious, making it this way:

Originally Posted by The AKM

It will be a tough game, but still. The final factor in here is that T-I-G hasn’t faced any real tough teams thus far while Westernesse has – and still the stats look pretty much equal.

No prejudice, no favouritism, no sympathetic magic - just rational inference based on the statistics.

We'd love to see the same attitude from the TTN.

[Nogrod]

Last year the AFA authorities offered the Arthedain to host group C of the Arda Cup. Many an eyebrow was raised back then as everyone knew the ambitious rebuilding-project of Norbury was a huge venture demanding both time and capital – so why drain both of those precious assets with adding one more major project to it? There was no way they could manage it, said many. There were strong suspicions on the issue. But lo and behold! They built a beautiful stadion at Amon Sûl – rebuilding the tower itself for it as well, in time, in a luxurious manner though not in the grandest of scales.

Here’s how The AKM’s correspondent described the new venue last year:

“[the Arthedain] asked to host the games at Amon Sûl instead [of Norbury]. The fully rebuilt tower laid a majestic backdrop to the stadium they built on its feet.

The Weathertop-Arena was not the most grand or lavish venue there was, but it was dashingly modern while it’s architecture honoured the surroundings and the great tower of Amon Sûl. From far away it looked like the stadium was embedded into the hillside, being a part of it.

The most expensive suites at the tower offered some real glamour for the spectators able to finance such lodgings – and a great view to the game from individual balconies. As a bonus the spectators would be shown live-coverage from all the matches going on at other locations via the restored palantir of Amon Sûl.”

The games went peacefully, the crowd turn-out was impressive (full house for every match) and what is really important: the mood in and around the group-play was amiable and good-spirited; and the organization was greased and polished, working effortlessly top-level. So it was kind of natural the new venue would get a promotion and letting them to host two quarterfinals as the neutral ground was just a fitting way to appreciate the Arthedain. But after the initial nod and even cheers from them, it didn’t take long from the journalists attending the AFA “quarterfinal revealing dinner” to start thinking about it again. It was a neat stadium combining old and new; tradition and cutting-edge architecture shook hands there, the newest design and materials blended seamlessly into the ages old structures and formed a unity not only together but with the surrounding hills, plains and forests. And it was clean, working, efficient, comfortable to suit all tastes from a beggar to a king…

But it was so small! It housed only some 45000 spectators – and these were the quarterfinals of the Arda Cup, two games of the four to be played! There was no way the games could be played in front of such thin crowds. It was a yellow paper from Lothlórien who got the question in first.

Galadriel’s Daily Mirror: Half of Arda is crazed for tickets to see Galadriel and Fëanor play! And Elrond, and Legolas! And the Valar! Millions would die to catch an eye of Varda and Nienna in their evening gowns in the after-game party! And you give the games to this children’s playground in the middle of nowhere? This can’t be!

The AKM: If I may sir, it does sound peculiar you give the games to such a small arena with limited services. Even if we do not agree with all The Galadriel’s Daily Mirror says, we must join them in asking the sanity of the decision. There would be real big venues nearer some civilization to be used…

The AFA Chairman: Please, there is no reason to worry, everything’s thought about. The Arthedain have promised us there will be a stadium double the size from last year in place at the first kick off. I’ll give the chairman of the organizing committee a word here to give you some additional information…

Arveleg: Thank you Mr. Chairman. Oh, this place brings forth memories… *looks moved and sighs* And I’m proud and happy – if also very tired right now – to have been able to give my contribution to the quarterfinal-games of the AC11 to succeed on this hallowed ground. But as the Chairman just said, we will be seating double the amount of spectators this year, but that’s not the big thing. The big thing is, that with the enhanced Palantir Network Technologies ™, we can also share a new Palantir Projection View™ to all those venues that have Palantirs – and as we speak we are co-operating with the stadiums around the Arda to receive full stadiums to watch the games live on air – like they would be looking at the games taking place in front of their very eyes. This is cutting edge stuff, mind you. We deliver the “being there” feeling to full stadiums around Arda: Tol Eressëa stadium will be packed with the broadcast of Avallónë’s stone, and there will be nice crowds in Osgiliath, Minas Morgul, Minas Tirith and who knows were the lines can be connected before the games.

Arveleg and the AFA chairman looked pleased seeing the amazement of the media. Now the media really got a story to make headlines!


All these avant-garde-technologies apart, was the venue spoiled with the new enlargement of the stadium?

Not at all. Now it bound Weathertop and The Fortress Hill together, sitting on a saddle between them; and the ancient Banked Bridge was renovated to edge the western side of the stand. And as the stadium now reached both hills, there were new buildings on top of the Fortress Hill as well, nicely trailing the general shapes of the hills around and providing double the luxury box seats. And to top it all, they had built a kind of modernistic mirror-image of the tower of Amon Sûl itself on top of the Fortress Hill, rising from the ruins of the old Fortress’ walls. The walls of the new tower were built on steel-railings criss-crossing the structure and then covered with dampened ash-grey glass that reflected the surrounding scenery to a viewer outside the tower, but inside they had a bright view on the pitch and all the modern conveniences any spoilt celebrity could dream of.

But the commoners had not been forgotten either. Housing now 95000 spectators there was room enough – and with the Northern efficiency – the logistics worked marvelously and there were for once enough toilets and beer-stands so one didn’t need to use hours queuing to them.

It was an engineering and financing miracle and there were many who asked themselves the question: “how can this be?” Something was at works there but it was hard to say what – but questioning the Northern kings and their capability of ending great tasks was just an invitation to face a sword, every reporter knew that much...

[the phantom]

Philip McPhantom
MESPN News, Doriath

What good fortune for the residents of Doriath! Not only is their team on a roll, undefeated through four friendlies, three group games, and the first playoff contest, but they can view their team close to home yet again, right in their historic underground Menegroth arena.

When Doriath was assigned to group A at next door Himring, there were mixed reactions- it was delightfully close to home, but a group with both Himring and Tirion wasn’t the easiest of the groups to go through. But Doriath rose to the challenge, beating both tough opponents solidly by three goals and qualifying first, gaining the right to host in the first playoff round.

Their first round opponent was Minas Morgul, not a bad team, but after Tirion and Himring they weren’t overly challenging and Doriath put them down with a sound four goal thumping, putting them through to the quarterfinals. But where would they play? That was the question.

The two quarterfinal host sites were already selected before the tournament- Doriath and Weathertop, but what was not known was which quarterfinals would be played at which location. It all depended on the locations of the teams that made it through. Had Wilderland defeated Valinor to move through to face Doriath, it’s very likely that the quarterfinal would have been shifted to the eastern site, particularly if the west-based Tirion would have defeated Lothlorien, or had The Forest upset Eregion. But as things turned out, Doriath is set to play their playoff contest in their home stadium for the second game in a row!

But this time around things in the Doriath stadium probably aren’t going to be a non-stop party. They weren’t worried about Minas Morgul, but their next opponent is much more intimidating- Valinor is coming to visit. Valinor, with their Tulkas anchored defense, Yavanna in the midfield, and the flashing trio of forwards- Arien, Miriel, and Nerdanel. Valinor- a battle-tested team, having played a solid Beleriand, the defending champs Gondolin, Manwe and his mighty Pelori squad, and Sauron’s dangerous Wilderland stars. Valinor would not be caught off guard by Doriath’s talent, but perhaps Doriath would be surprised?

Not according to co-captain Melian. “Certainly it’s fair to say that Valinor is the best overall team we’ve faced this tournament, but that doesn’t mean we are unprepared. Fingon and Maedhros from Himring are a very formidable pair of forwards, and Tirion is just completely stacked up front, with Finarfin, Mahtan, Finrod, Aredhel, and Finwe. And of course we just went up against The Witch King. No… I think we’ll be sharp and ready.”

But that remains to be seen. What we do know at this point is that the home field advantage will not be as pronounced in this match as in the last. Doriath is the host site but the team is not officially the host team, and thus tickets have been allotted equally between the participants, and Valinor is quite likely to at the least approach their assigned number. Pelori will likely be drawing large numbers of Valinor residents, but Valinor will probably be more popular given their diverse makeup. Not only will various Ainu be in attendance, but the Noldor will come to support Miriel and Nerdanel, the Teleri will come out for King Olwe, and the Vanyar will make the trip for King Ingwe and Indis. The crowd could very well end up split dead even, unless some Doriath residents can buy some tickets away from those unwilling to make the long trip across the sea.

Doriath vs Valinor is not the only match to be played, however. There is also the contest between Tol In Gaurhoth and Westernesse. No doubt a large contingent of Wights, Wolves, and Orcs will be streaming down the Sirion after they have finished celebrating their recent win upon their haunted isle, but they do not have the numbers to fill a stadium the size of Menegroth, and thus Westernesse is certain to have the crowd behind them. Supporters from Arnor have already started arriving, and residents of Gondor and Numenor are on the way, doubtless in greater numbers than even Valinor. But Doriath can handle a massive flood of visitors. That’s why it was selected as a host site.

The Westernesse supporters that have already arrived are taking over some of the local establishments, and they are confident that they will be going through to the semifinals. “This is a team of destiny!” said King Arvedui earlier today. “I gave my best effort with my Eriador squad of course, but I’ve also been following Westernesse through the tournament with great interest. Armenelos took home the Arda Cup two years ago, and this year they have a similar team, only with more diverse talent. They’re so big, and strong, and calculating, and mistake-free, and work together so well. This team is going all the way!”

But Tol In Gaurhoth supporters do not agree with Arvedui. One of the only early arriving TIG supporters, MormWight, had this to say. “Westernesse going all the way? Don’t make me laugh. We Werewolves beat them for the bronze three years ago and we’ll beat them again this time. Sure, they’re physically imposing against other teams, but it doesn’t mean anything against us Werewolves! We’re just as strong, but faster- and we’ve got the flash to come back if we’re behind, and the killer instinct to put a game away if we’re ahead. This is our year!”

All opinions aside, it looks to be a great pair of games here in Doriath. Which two will move forward to the semifinals at the grand coliseum at Amon Hen? We can’t wait to find out!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Woe is me, for I am an Elf of eliminated players!

The Felagundion has been founded on three very simple principles: Support Finrod and Tar-Míriel with all its heart; oppose Sauron and Pharazôn will all its strength; and enjoy awe-inspiring plays by great players with all its soul (provided it doesn't clash with the two abovementioned principles).

Now the fairest of mortal queens has been eliminated in the group stage (by her hateful cousin, no less), and the Lord of Narog has joined her in the first knockout stage (eliminated by his sister and half-uncle). Arien and Elrond, the new darlings of the Felagundion according to the third principle, are still playing, that is true, and Gorthaur has been eliminated (by Arien, no less), but the first principle was the sine qua non of this venture. Without it we couldn't enjoy the games fully even if the Sun-Lady scores a hat-trick against Doriath, or if Elrond shuts Ancalagon, Tilion, and Morgoth out, or even if the Werewolves humiliate Tar-Calion with a ten-nil drubbing (something Anfauglith, regretfully, failed to do).

Due to these events the Felagundion regretfully decides to close shop, watch the coming games in silence, and await the next Arda Cup, hoping for better fortunes for the son of Finarfin and the daughter of Tar-Palantir.

Felagundion,
Exactly what it says on the tin.

Post-scriptum. 6/8, hah! (Those two mistakes were real painful, though.)

[Nogrod]

Angband vs. Eregion


The day emerged warm but still crispy – like it could be only in the northern mountains ranges. “The Village”, west of the stadium, that had emerged for the high numbers of ordinary human tourists and local fans willing to attend the quarterfinals was busy from the early morning hours on – and that was early as the sun rose already around 3.30AM. The elves of Lothlórien and Rivendell had set up a joint camp south of Weathertop inviting all the elves from other realms to join them, while the Angband supporters were shown the fields north-east of the hills for camping. The players and their more high-brow supporters and all the starring guests had accommodation at the splendid new Norbury High hotel where they would be driven to the stadium with carts in the afternoon.

But “the Village” was the focal point for those attending the games; the place where all the vendors came to sell their exotic foods, Arda Cup related merchandise (mostly pirated), handcraft, sweets… and all the non-profit organizations had their stands there. Amnesty Interardan did especially draw a lot of folks around them, many of them signing the petition of “No more games in Valinor” –list. And all the performers: musicians, jugglers, live-statues, comedians, theatre groups, fortune-tellers, acrobats, dancers, prophets, gamblers, pick-pockets, tramps, hobos, hookers… all there to pick the pocket or the mind of the football tourists all around Arda, fairly or unfairly, but just to make a living.



~*~

The pre-games press conference was held at mid-day at the slopes of Weathertop where a theater-like stand had been constructed for such events – and to any theatrical performances after the games. All the captains praised the pitch and the stands, and the overall fluency of the organizations. And it was also predictable the captains made the normal mumbo-jumbo about the games ahead.

Let’s get the baseline…

Melkor of Angband: Elrond is a tough goalie to be the youngster he is, but we will prevail in the end with our experience and stamina. And it takes more than one Glorfindel to score against us, he should remember as he has met my Balrogs earlier.

Elrond of Eregion: I know Melkor talks tough but he has been defeated many times in history – and I’m confident we’ll be ones to add to that list today – even if we can’t send him anywhere in chains after we shut them down.

Manwë of Pelori: We appreciate Galadriel and many of her host, but Fëanor will never champion against a team led by me. Rest assured of that. A ban is a ban.

Galadriel of Lothlórien: We have a competitive team this year and Fëanor is not the only one who knows how to score for us. You media-guys over-estimate him – and you Manwë. We play our game, we, and then we’ll see who laughs in the end…


~*~

It's Psychology, stupid!

The first match between Angband and Eregion was about to start and the Weathertop Arena was full to the last bench. Just before the teams entered the pitch The Witch King came out from his private luxury-balcony from on top of the new tower of the Fortress Hill, one of the most luxurious of them all, and waved to the Angband crowds just beneath him on the north-east side of the stadium. The band of orcs, balrogs and other creatures of darkness cheered to him looking quite comfortable from that section of the stand – and many people realized only now that the north-eastern quarter of the stadium was a bit different than the rest of the venue; there were no benches to sit down, the steps were more rugged – as to “reflect the original mountainside” the leaflet introducing the stadium no-one had read said – and the sun was not shining there even if it was an afternoon match because of the new modernistic tower on top of the Fortress Hill cast a steady shadow over it.

But then the teams emerged from the tube beneath the pitch and the whole stadium went crying out aloud to cheer for their favourites. During the opening handshakes the racket was so loud no one heard the announcers’ introductions to the game. Some people thought they caught The Witch King to cheer quite loudly for Elrond as well when he was introduced. Odd or not, who knows?

The name of the game became obvious after the few testing minutes to start the game. Eregion played actively from defense looking for chances to make fast counters and Angband spread evenly across the field trying to avoid packing their players in a lump and looking to cut off any long balls forwards Eregion might try out. Supported by the majority of the crowd Eregion was really trying to make a game.

Anytime they had a chance, Elladan and Elrohir did their best to open runs for Glorfindel and Eärendil but the Balrogs, Morgoth and the Great Werewolf of Angband managed to cut the runs – forcing the Eregion forwards off the ball or to shoot it wide if they got it. Ungoliant was having an easy game even if it looked like Eregion was the more active team. And yes, that is true. To the growing astonishment of all the crowds Angband played it cool and almost passive the first half an hour with no hurry to go on offence, just cutting the Eregion attacks and laying low letting Eregion do the running.

But suddenly they just changed gear. Eregion’s defenses were totally taken by surprise by Angband becoming serious in the offence just out of the blue – and for a moment it seemed there was nothing to do for team Eregion but to hope Elrond would save them. And he did!

Shots were raining down on Elrond – and he denied them!

Ancalagon shot it towards the upper left corner from thirty meters but Elrond tipped it away with his fingers at the last moment.

Thuringwethil sent Tevildo free from the right corner of the box but the one-timer went just inches past the right pole of the goal.

Tilion got into one on one with Elrond but the linesman called it off-side.

Morgoth gave a free kick from 25 meters and hit the crossbar – from the rebound Tevildo headed the Ball to the lower corner of the goal… just for Elrond to deny him!

The teams went into the half-time with 0-0. The crowds were nervous but also excited about the game turning into a classic under their very eyes. The men and elves were anxious about the strong show team Angband made the last fifteen minutes of the first half, and the coolness of the Angband team; the feeling that they hadn’t really tried their best thus far just send shivers to the fans of Eregion who made the majority of the crowd.

As anticipated, the second half was more lively than the first as it seemed the courtesies had been paid and the opponent had been checked – and now both teams went for it in earnest. At the early stages of the half Eärendil shot a nice volley forcing Ungoliant to a parade-save – only to be countered by Tilion hammering a shot just past the post as Asfaloth had it’s hoof to meddle with the shot. But the Eregion team were forced to defend more and more by the minute as Angband was just forcing it their way. Glorfindel was calling for passes but Balrogs #1 and #2 kept him away from any coming his way totally frustrating him – and making him look smaller and insecurer minute by minute.

And when Angband really started rolling their attacks forwards, Eregion players seemed to be a step behind more often than not – and that resulted in some card-taking from late tackles: both Elrohir and Eärendil took yellow cards, the latter one causing a free kick from about thirty meters for gripping the wing of Thuringwethil when she was about to receive a pass from Morgoth. To their luck the tremendous shot from the free-kick by Tevildo went just over the crossbar as Elrond would have had no chance to stop it.

And little by little the chances for any counter-attacks by Eregion died down as Angband pressed ever more fiercely. And finally Ancalagon beat the ball in from a nice pass by Thuringwethil. It was a classic “twist of the tail” shot that left Elrond armless against it.

There were still twenty minutes to go and Eregion threw in all they had to gain an equalizer, but Angband introduced their pressure-defense basically disarming Eregion from all the weapons they might have. Angband cut away all the offensive passes, they cut away all the lines of passing by fast movement as well, they cut away the forwards from receiving the ball and pressed on anyone trying to bring the ball upwards in the first place.

At the last moments Glorfindel made a run sneaking off from the pressure of the midfielders and got the pass from Eärendil to speed his way. And he was just reaching the box when he heard a Balrog yelling at him “Eagle’s cleft!” from behind – for a wink of an eye he was baffled, and before he could react again the great beast was on him and they both rolled down to the ground. The referee judged the Balrog had touched the ball first before hitting Glorfindel and it was a goal kick to Angband.

Glorfindel’s runs were much more timid after that incident and Eärendil was just too closely watched by Morgoth watching he wouldn't escape him this time. So there pretty little for Eregion to do any counterplay: Angband’s midfield and defenses were simply overpowering them. And so it was that Angband won, 1-0, after a really strong performance.

There was no question about which team dominated the field and many elves and men gave the Angband-team their due respects when they went on cheering around the pitch for their victory. Eregion offense only managed three shots towards Ungoliant under the formidable pressure of Angband defenses – and against such a quality keeper that was just too little – and most people in the audience realized that. Eregion had been just shut out, ironically that had been the way they themselves had marched to reach this stage of the tournament.


~*~

After the game the AKM met two celebrities having a chat with champagne and oysters in the Fortress Hill Tower’s lofty upper lobby.

The AKM: So what did you think about the game?

The Witch King: Well, the right team won. And please note, because they defended better.

Gil-Galad: It must be sadly accepted that it was also the better team that won. Even my younger nephew and great friend can’t do it quite alone.

The Witch King: Agreed. Elrond played marvelously yet again. If he’d be keeping the goal behind a stronger team he could be a title-winning goalie.

The AKM: Could I ask what brought you here to see the quarterfinals?

Gil-Galad: Did you know I met Elendil here back then, and then we marched to Mordor for the Last Alliance… oh, those were the days. So it was quite simple: I wished to pay my homage to this place which will always have a special place in my heart.

The Witch King: I have some strong memories relating to this place as well. It was here we were actually nearest to destroy Mithrandir’s plan… you know I have pondered many times if I’d be given a new chance to perform better here at Amon Sûl, could I find that little extra to make it? It was so close we got the most sought after prize there is… but alas we failed then.

The AKM: Would you be willing to reflect on your own tournament this year, or even sharing some of your plan s for AC12?

Gil-Galad: It was a spiritless performance we gave this year, quite tame. I think some changing of climate would be welcome for the next season. Deciding to play in Mordor two years ago was a fresh idea but it wasn’t that any more this year.

The Witch King: Couldn’t agree more. I just felt the whole tournament that I couldn’t find that spark to light my game and am seriously planning to do something radically different the next season, actually I have invested quite a lot for it already, but let’s come back to the details when the plans get further.

Gil-Galad: Hey, we should form a team for next year called “The Lifeless Forwards”!

The Witch King: Hehe.


~*~

Team Angband had made it plain they were not going to tolerate any journalists hanging outside their lockers after the game, but happily our reporter caught two shower-fresh players from team Eregion as they were exiting.

The AKM: So, how do you feel?

Elrond: What do you think?

Glorfindel: Losing never feels right, but I do think I have myself partly to blame. I was just not playing at my level.

Elrond: Oh, don’t blame yourself. I mean looking at your history it must have been quite agonizing to try and make play in between that special guard by the balrogs. Must have kindled dark memories…

Glorfindel: I thought before the game it wouldn’t affect my game, but maybe it did. Had I just scored, I had a chance!

Elrond: You could as well say that if I hadn’t let that tail-twist shot by Ancalagon in we’d have a different situation… So let’s not dwell on that.

The AKM: What would be the positive thoughts from you at the moment then?

Glorfindel: Well you know, even in defeat it was a real pleasure to play here. With all our involvement in something you could call Eriador at large, this must be the closest to being like a second home to us.

Elrond: We built the great stadium down to Rivendell two years ago, but this was as close one could get to playing at a home-venue. Real treat.

Glorfindel: We just need to make it better the next year.

The AKM: Before I’ll let you go, just your quick predictions for the final-match?

Elrond: Doriath wins Pelori 2-1.

Glorfindel: Angband wins Tol-In-Gaurhoth in a penalty shoot out.


Angband 1-0 Eregion
tot shots 17-13
on target 7-3
GOALS:
*71, 1-0 Ancalagon (Thuringwethil)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Angband- Morgoth, Balrog #1
*Eregion- Asfaloth, Figwit, Elrohir, Earendil