WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Aganzir]

Seems I get to continue my Shastanalysis after all...

DAY 1
Wishy-washy comments about Rikae and Pitch. Mac, Kit & I look good.
He says again he likes Mac but thinks he makes too big a deal of my post.
Legate looks good, agrees with him on Lottie. Votes Lottie.

Conclusion: Based on this I'd say he dreamed of Mac first. However he didn't list him as innocent later (unlike he did to me) so I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised about being Shasta's night 1 dream, but he did say I looked more like the cobbler. It's also possible he dreamed of Kit.

DAY 2
Doesn't like Legate. Wonders about wilwa (the tone seems innocent enough but could be deflecting attention from the sallywagon).
Boro's post is merely damage control.
Corrects Mac who had interpreted his words wrong - doesn't bring up the possibility he was trying to twist his words though.
List:

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

--

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Says he might not be opposed to lynching Greenie whom he can never read, but it's more of an example than suggestion to lynch her.
Votes Lottie because of lack of support for a Legate lynch.

Conclusion: It looks bad for Legate, but given his complete change of opinion on him the following day I don't think he dreamed of him. Shasta uses the word "see" when talking about Eomer.
I don't think he had dreamed of Mac (...at the moment) and Lommy (...as of yet). His comment on Rikae seems the most specific (ordo-Rikae etc).

DAY 3
Legate isn't as suspicious as he thought he was (elaborates: he suspected him mainly for 180-ing which is after all typical of him).
Votes for Inzil.

Conclusion: His night 3 dream couldn't have been anyone but Legate.

DAY 4
List:

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

Hasn't dreamed (too uncertain): wilwa, Boro, Green
Might have dreamed and found guilty (wants to analyse/look closer/etc): ed, Mac, Pitch, skip, Mänwe, Cailín
Might have dreamed and found innocent (semi-defense): Nessa
Dreamed innocent: Legate

Lists Legate, me and Rikae as green (Nessa, wilwa & Cailín are green-yellow). Boro, Green, Pitch & Mänwe are yellow-orange while no one is yet red.
Analyses Mänwe and says he's the first to enter his red category.
Analyses Cailín, doesn't see her as a wolf but she's worth watching.
Says he really wants to vote for Mänwe but could also go for skip or Boro.
Continues casting suspicion on Mänwe.
Nessa's vote post doesn't make him feel comfortable.
Is irritated by Mac's attitude.
Emphasises he doesn't feel like voting for Legate.
Votes for skip because doesn't agree with the ed & Legate votes and doesn't think lynching Nessa that day is a good idea.

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.