WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Aganzir]

Whoops.

[Cailín]

You are one brave man, Shasta.

I'm basing all my thoughts here on Shasta's post #460. Just quickly browsed his posts and this one stood out as hopefully leaving the most obvious clues:

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

From this I gather Shasta did not dream of a wolf, which is probably why he did not reveal. I am also prepared to accept Rikae, Aganzir and Legate (darn - I was sure he was evil) as Known Innocents, simply because there is no more tangible evidence than this and it gives me something.

That leaves

Macalaure
wilwarin538
Nessa Telrunya
Boromir88
A Little Green
Skip Spence
Mänwe

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.

To a large extent it is still going to be a stab in the dark toDay. The Cobbler and the Wolves had maybe some idea of each other's identity, but nothing that could be 100% relied upon (unless someone has discovered clues in Pitch's posts - I must admit I did not read very carefully yet). At least now I have some people I can trust.

Going to read what happened yesterDay exactly now, then sleep, but will be around tomorrow.

[skip spence]

Okay.

That was bad (hey, at least we didn't lynch him this time!) and good (finally something tangible to work with).

And lynching the cobbler proved more productive than we could imagine, eh Boro?

Going to have a look at Shasta's posts...

[Macalaure]

11 people left, 4 of which are wolves. If we don't lynch a wolf toDay, it's 4 wolves and 4 innocents toMorrow, and we will have lost. Unless the ranger is lucky, of course.

Let's look at what the seer left us (typing while I read).

Day1: Makes positive remarks about me, Kitanna, Agan, and Legate, me twice. He definitely didn't find a wolf Night1, unless he completely keeps quiet about it.

Day2: He's after Legate a little. In his #252 list there's a host of people he feels good about, but only two he feels "no-nonsense" bad about - Legate and Aganzir. Strangely he lists Agan twice (adding "on" to the "bad Agan"). Is he hinting that Legate is dreamt of and evil while using Agan to make it less obvious to the wolves? He votes Lottie, but mentions he would have prefered Legate.

Day3:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

Obviously, he now dreamt of Legate and clears him unmistakably.
He's very eager to lynch Inzil or Nessa. We know Inzil is innocent, and most likely he dreamt of Legate the night before. Since he didn't mention Nessa much before, I doubt he knows she's evil. My guess is he wants to get rid of enigmas so he won't be forced to waste dreams on them. He also votes innocent Inzil - if he had dreamt of Nessa, he wouldn't have done that. (He also seems uncertain of Nessa the next Day.)

Day4: List in #459:
If he dreamt of anyone guilty, it has to be Manwe, as he's his first item on the analysis list. This might explain why he's dead, even though there was a fair amount of suspicion against him.
He lists me as intermediate, so probably he hasn't dreamt of me after all.
He doesn't list anyone as clearly unsuspicious. He's hiding his known innocent well here.
The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.
He lists nobody as red, though. Maybe he hasn't dreamt of Manwe and his fourth dream is already dead? Did he think listing Manwe as sole prime suspect would be too obvious?
The conclusion of his Manwe analysis is very condemning, but he was very negative about Legate before, too. What sets the two cases apart though:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.

That's as plain as it has to be.
His Cailín analysis in inconclusive, which suggests that he did not dream of her and it's just a regular analysis.
He keeps on talking about Agan being the cobbler, which either means he hasn't dreamt of Agan after all (which means he hasn't necessarily dreamt of Rikae either).

Mänwe: known wolf.
Legate: known innocent.
.. would be my conclusion.

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil?

[Macalaure]

Haha, reading Agan's quote of Shasta's first list, I see that he didn't list Agan twice - the line breaks were just that way on my screen.

Never mind.

[Cailín]

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil?

Sloppy, I'm afraid. As I said, I only looked at the one post. I honestly did not think Shasta would have been so subtle yesterDay if he had found a wolf, but I guess he may have been trying to be heroic.

[Aganzir]

Seems I get to continue my Shastanalysis after all...

DAY 1
Wishy-washy comments about Rikae and Pitch. Mac, Kit & I look good.
He says again he likes Mac but thinks he makes too big a deal of my post.
Legate looks good, agrees with him on Lottie. Votes Lottie.

Conclusion: Based on this I'd say he dreamed of Mac first. However he didn't list him as innocent later (unlike he did to me) so I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised about being Shasta's night 1 dream, but he did say I looked more like the cobbler. It's also possible he dreamed of Kit.

DAY 2
Doesn't like Legate. Wonders about wilwa (the tone seems innocent enough but could be deflecting attention from the sallywagon).
Boro's post is merely damage control.
Corrects Mac who had interpreted his words wrong - doesn't bring up the possibility he was trying to twist his words though.
List:

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

--

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Says he might not be opposed to lynching Greenie whom he can never read, but it's more of an example than suggestion to lynch her.
Votes Lottie because of lack of support for a Legate lynch.

Conclusion: It looks bad for Legate, but given his complete change of opinion on him the following day I don't think he dreamed of him. Shasta uses the word "see" when talking about Eomer.
I don't think he had dreamed of Mac (...at the moment) and Lommy (...as of yet). His comment on Rikae seems the most specific (ordo-Rikae etc).

DAY 3
Legate isn't as suspicious as he thought he was (elaborates: he suspected him mainly for 180-ing which is after all typical of him).
Votes for Inzil.

Conclusion: His night 3 dream couldn't have been anyone but Legate.

DAY 4
List:

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

Hasn't dreamed (too uncertain): wilwa, Boro, Green
Might have dreamed and found guilty (wants to analyse/look closer/etc): ed, Mac, Pitch, skip, Mänwe, Cailín
Might have dreamed and found innocent (semi-defense): Nessa
Dreamed innocent: Legate

Lists Legate, me and Rikae as green (Nessa, wilwa & Cailín are green-yellow). Boro, Green, Pitch & Mänwe are yellow-orange while no one is yet red.
Analyses Mänwe and says he's the first to enter his red category.
Analyses Cailín, doesn't see her as a wolf but she's worth watching.
Says he really wants to vote for Mänwe but could also go for skip or Boro.
Continues casting suspicion on Mänwe.
Nessa's vote post doesn't make him feel comfortable.
Is irritated by Mac's attitude.
Emphasises he doesn't feel like voting for Legate.
Votes for skip because doesn't agree with the ed & Legate votes and doesn't think lynching Nessa that day is a good idea.

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

[Aganzir]

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

[Aganzir]

Mac he talked very differently of me and Rikae. The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.

You can bet it does leave Cailín as an unknown factor, and one I really am suspicious about. Even this defense does not sound very genuine to me, to be honest. Though on the other hand, now knowing that Shasta was the Seer, and I suspected him... I am sort of wondering about how well my judgements have been this far. Well, there was this one moment the day before when I was thinking about him as either a Wolf or some Gifted, and I was reluctant, but then his posting made me put him as a Wolf and stick with it. Let's just hope it will go better in the future. Still, Cailín looks suspicious to me.

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

I am sure everybody will now go through Shasta's posts, I will do it myself too, in order to get my own check on it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

Possible. I have to look at it myself too. It is true that one might wonder why would Shasta do something so weird, as a Seer.

EDIT: x-ed since first Mac

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Me too. You should have seen my face.

Speaking of Boro... What on earth are you up to? The most likely explanation seems to be that he's a wolf pretending to be either the cobbler or a gifted pretending to be the cobbler. I simply can't see an innocent Boro behaving like that, even for the sake of not being night-killed.

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.

I see what you mean.


Alright, where do we stand?

Dreamt of innocent:
Legate

Likely dreamt of innocent:
Rikae

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Likely dreamt of wolf:
Mänwe
Even if he hasn't been dreamt of, the fact that Shasta is dead now makes it very, very likely that he's a wolf.

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Ordered by current suspicion:
Cailín
Skip
Boro
Wilwa
Greenie
Nessa

The field has been narrowed down nicely at last.

[Cailín]

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Think you are pretty optimistic there, Mac. I find no evidence that Shasta dreamed of you, except for some positive hints in the very early stages of the game, but he liked me then as well and I am sure none of you are so eager to clear me.

I found you fairly unsuspicious for the past few days, but you are not off my possible wolf list.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

---

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.

Yeah I noticed that too (although not until you pointed it out). However you need to keep in mind that us non-native speakers have a more limited vocabulary (thus we repeat words more often than the rest of you) so I wouldn't read too much into it. Boro & Pitch couldn't have identified each other for sure on day 1, but their connection is interesting.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal

What's your take on Mänwe then?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your take on Mänwe then?

The bit about "first person to enter my "red" category" is fairly incriminating. The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

[Macalaure]

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

That post was more to make up my own mind to see what our options are from here. Maybe it wasn't worded/formatted well. For right now, Rikae, and you, too, are close enough to innocent to me to count with, especially since I thought you two were innocent before. Obviously, I didn't put myself into the list of remaining people either.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Suspected Pitch (in an approximate yet more or less arbitrary order from the most to the least suspicious - I haven't listed the dead or myself because this was originally a note intended just for me): Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa; Mac, wilwa, Green
Found Pitch innocent: Boro; wilwa, Nessa, Legate
Pitch found innocent: Boro, skip; Rikae

DAY 2
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa
Found Pitch innocent: Boro, skip, Cailín
Pitch found innocent: -

DAY 3
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Rikae, Cailín
Pitch suspected: No one (but Inzil, it seems)
Found Pitch innocent day 3: skip
Pitch found innocent: No one (but Shasta)

DAY 4
Suspected Pitch: Mac; wilwa, Rikae, skip; Green, Legate
Pitch suspected: flip-flopped on Legate
Found Pitch innocent: No one except Legate & Greenie did some flip-flopping
Pitch found innocent: Boro, Cailín, skip (whom he voted), semi-defended also Nessa

Originally Posted by Pitch on Nessa

chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.

I failed to see anything that would've suggested Pitch knew for sure Nessa is innocent, but the way he went after her makes me think better of her.

Ed constantly suspected Pitch while Mänwe attacked her - I believe this is the reason she was killed.

It's rather late now so I won't try to reach any conclusions about Pitch's interactions now but will do so tomorrow if I deem it worth the effort. I thought I'd still post these though.

[skip spence]

I'm tired and should go to sleep but here's my opinion on Shasta's dreams:

Day 1.
Inconclusive. Not a wolf; possibly an innocent Mac but I doubt it given how Shasta start suspecting him later. Innocent Rikae is a more likely dream to me since she stays "green" throughout.

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

Day 3:
Almost certainly an innocent Legate

Day 4:
Probably a wolfish Mänwe. Possibly an innocent Agan.

Now to bed.