WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[wilwarin538]

Votes so far,

Greenie -> Boro
Lommy -> Boro (2)
Elronhubbard -> Boro (3)
Legate -> Elronhubbard
Boro -> Lommy

Left to vote: Wilwa, Nessa


Is this the second day that Lommy and Boro have voted for each other? It's really strange the way that the two of them are so adamant about each other's guilt. I feel quite good about Lommy, and just a bit unsure of Boro. He is acting out of character, but it seems likely that that's just due to the fact that he can't be around as much as usual. So I don't really feel comfortable voting either of them. LRH, though some things she's said have been a little off, I think it's mostly just newbiness. So...

I don't know who to vote for. I'm afraid I'm in that weird position I seem to always be in where everyone looks shiny to me. So....I'm not going to vote, because it would either be a throwaway, or for someone I'm not suspicious of, and I would prefer not to do either.

Anyway, I'm off to bed, because I've been studying and doing exams all weekend and I need rest so that I can fully enjoy my day off tomorrow.

[Boromir88]

Shasta's unable to be here and thus asked if I'd be able to close the DL today.

Works out good too, seeing as you've lynched me! And also with the Mod's permission can reveal that this ordo is now dead.

'Tis night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sorry for the lateness.

Greenie was killed at night, but Legolas took down no one.

Day begins.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh my Eru...

So now there is five of us (!), still with one Gifted; I think there is no need to point out that we need to get a Wolf toDay.

So now I think every piece of evidence is important. First thing to consider is why Greenie was killed (while Nessa as a known innocent was not, but quite possibly the Wolves assumed she is going to be protected), which has a sub-question, since she was the Hunter and did not kill anybody, she could not have targeted a Wolf last Night (unless she'd forget to send her pick, but I think that unlikely). At the same time, the question is whether the Wolves targeted her knowing, or suspecting that she is the Hunter, because if yes, then it would have been deliberate and the Wolves would have assumed that she is not targeting either of them, otherwise they probably wouldn't dare to take the risk.

The mere fact that she did not get the Wolf is the worst thing, as it raises questions about some things. In her last post, Greenie said:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I will definitely not vote Nessa the as-good-as-known innocent, probably not Wilwa either. Which leaves me with Boro, Hubbard, Lommy and Legate. I would be fine with any of these actually. Least maybe Lommy.

Boro is dead, so if we try to come up with who was on her list, we can go through the remaining names. If her thoughts remained the same, then she did not definitely choose Nessa, probably not Wilwa or Lommy either, and so I would say the person she targeted would be either me or Elronhubbard. If it was the former, then from my part it does not in any way challenge my thoughts, but if it was the latter, then I would have to start doubting and wonder whether the Wolves are not Lommy and Wilwa together, since otherwise Hubby would have been dead by now. That said, I think Hubby would probably not target LG intentionally if she knew she was the Hunter, but that by itself wouldn't say anything about the nature of the Wolves anyway, only about their possible motives (as it might be simply that they targeted Greenie exactly because they thought she was not the Hunter or something...).

Anyway, after the death of Boro, it narrows down my choices a lot. Basically, the options for me (unless Eomer totally screwed up), are that the Wolves are Elro-Lommy, Elro-Wilwa or Lommy-Wilwa. The last of these options sounds the least probable for me, if it's the two of them, hats off; I probably wouldn't have even considered it if there was not this possibility that Hunter would have targeted LRH (although again, one of them it is). Still, I find LRH the sort of "safest" option, the most likely one. It is strange to imagine that Lommy would go after Boro so much if she was a Wolf, as it would put herself under suspicion. With Wilwa, on the other hand, there is the vote for Inzil, which I believe a Wolf would not really cast at that moment.

In any case, I would really like to see people post toDay...

[Nessa Telrunya]

I apologize for my Voteless state yesterDay. I just couldn't decide who to vote, because at this point, it's easier to do more harm than good.

But, with the death of Boro, I'm really starting to look at Lommy. Sure, it would be a bit risky to bring that much attention to yourself with going consistently after one person, but it would also be a great way to be unpredictable-a perfectly wolfish strategy.

I'm going to go back and reread her posts...

[wilwarin538]

Greenie? Well....I guess they figured Nessa would likely be protected, and so they didn't want to take the risk of not getting their kill. They probably didn't believe Greenie to be the Hunter, with so few people left and the fact that they could win toDay with the proper lynch, I doubt they'd risk the Hunter taking one of them down. So they may have felt she was the Ranger?

Anyway, so this is who's left:

Wilwa
Lommy
LRH
Legate
Nessa

That's 2 wolves, 1 Ranger and 2 Ordos. And Nessa is a known innocent.

So my options for who to vote for are the 3 L's. I am fairly equaly unsure of all 3 of them. YesterDay I know I wasn't really suspicious of anyone, but now that'd be a really dumb way of thinking, considering 2/3 of those people are wolves. So I'm going to go take a closer look at their posts.

[Thinlómien]

Argh. Placed my bets in the wrong place last Night, it seems. On the other hand, so did apparently Greenie herself so maybe I shouldn't feel bad. And yes, I'm trying to say:

I'm Aragorn, also known as the ranger.

The successful save was Eomer, as you have probably guessed. I'm not going to say a word about the other picks though, because the wolves shouldn't know if I have protected myself already or not.

So that narrows the possible wolves down to Legate, Wilwa and LRH, which means there are two wolves in those three. Nicely done, guys, but toDay we have 2/3 hitting one of you and once we do, you're going to have tough time with me still alive.

I was rereading the thread yesterday and I made some observations on people, I'm now going to edit my notes to some form which might be readable. Basically I ended up thinking the wolves are LRH and Wilwa, but I was terribly annoyed with Legate and Greenie because I was going to be so mad if they managed to fool me (again). Now I'd be inclined to think either LRH or Wilwa is actually innocent and Legate is guilty because my first reaction was that he'd been the least likely pick by Greenie. Have to check her posts to get a better idea, though.

One more thing. Nessa, you are of utmost importance toDay, because you are, for sure, innocent. So please play as much and think as throughly as you can, because if we fail toDay, we lose the game. I hope I'm not sounding too patronising but this game is seriously killing me with all the pressure...