WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Hey, certainly not that! I say that's really the worst thing we could do. If we do this, and the WWs do this, and we do this, and the WWs do this, then the WWs eventually win. Like, imagine the newspaper headlines: "Village lost by intentionally lynching only ordos!" Honestly!!!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

This throws a whole new perspective on things

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is enjoyable to watch. That is all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This is enjoyable to watch. That is all.

*shakes fist on behalf of everyone*

[Nogrod]

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.

Nog, do you realise one thing, that the Heir does not know their role???

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nog, do you realise one thing, that the Heir does not know their role???

Oops... No, I didn't think about it. Is it so?

Well that makes the things once again "a bit more complicated".

Originally Posted by Nessa

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

This throws a whole new perspective on things

I think these are quite plain talking...

Originally Posted by ShastaGod

Nerwen was lynched. She was an ordo.

Originally Posted by ShastaDevil

Sally has been eaten. She was an ordo.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lottie, you mentioned that Lommy is saying what you were thinking; now you're saying what I'm thinking.

I expect that your focus is correct.

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now.

Blocked! It must have been racy indeed to be banned in this country.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Lottie, you mentioned that Lommy is saying what you were thinking; now you're saying what I'm thinking.

I expect that your focus is correct.

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now.

EDIT: xed since the post I quoted

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.





EDIT: xed since the post I quoted

Ok...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Still at work and only peripherally following things at the moment, but I think I do see where this is going.

++Lottie

x/d with Eomer and Legate

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Lottie

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still.

EDIT: xed with Legate and Zil

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is and thus are you

a) an ordo willing to throw the ball back to the wolves
b) a gifted willing to get lynched as to secure us the heir
c) a wolf willing to give the impression of either a or b to secure the heir to the dark side

The fact that you do it that way more or less cancels the options a and b to me.

And if the heir is already dead as seems to be possible we probably should lynch you Lottie. And heh, I would have been right yesterDay!


EDIT: X'd since Eomer

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

My reasoning was that if a gifted is killed, the heir takes over. I thought we don't get a reveal on whoever the heir takes over for, but it would only make sense to call them an ordo. It wouldn't work for Shasta to say "no-role"

I hope not - I have imagine it the way that that's how he does it, simply writing "no-role", indeed, or something like that. I mean, you will know that the Heir is "activated", but you don't know what exactly happened...

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Brilliant, well, as good lead as any, at least something is happening. I just hope it's not the case of what Nessa said (quote above) - lynching our Gifted when we in fact don't want to would be really incredible stupidity.

In any case, as it was said, when lynching the Hunter, we will know for sure if you are not bluffing, and also if nothing else, we move on, so... well, fine. If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

EDIT: x-ed more or less since my last

[Nogrod]

Lottie, you should bring yourself up to date before you beat a dead horse.

Okay, I see what you suggested now Nessa.

Originally Posted by the Rules

The Heir will not be aware that he or she is the Heir. Regarding the Heir's function - the Heir is nothing more than an ordo until the first non-ordo dies.

So would Shasta tell us if the heir died before any non-ordo died or would the heir just show as an ordo if she was not turned into anything?

His constant remarks on how funny it is to follow this game could suggest the heir is already dead...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lottie, you should bring yourself up to date before you beat a dead horse.

Okay, I see what you suggested now Nessa.
So would Shasta tell us if the heir died before any non-ordo died or would the heir just show as an ordo if she was not turned into anything?

His constant remarks on how funny it is to follow this game could suggest the heir is already dead...

My guess is that the heir will, if need be, miraculously turn out to be the last surviving Ordo.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oops... No, I didn't think about it. Is it so?

Well that makes the things once again "a bit more complicated".

I think these are quite plain talking...

My reasoning was that if a gifted is killed, the heir takes over. I thought we don't get a reveal on whoever the heir takes over for, but it would only make sense to call them an ordo. It wouldn't work for Shasta to say "no-role"

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, for now a general list of my impression about people after toDay's posting...

Wilwa - not really so much to go with, but when she is around, at least speaks, does not set off any alarms
Lottie - seems quite thoughtful, also does not really set off any alarms
Boro - okay, his vote today was rather weird, but I am not really going to judge him based on that... I think it'd be nice to see more from him, and possibly our village'd have needed his sort of decisive spirit in matters such as "lynch-or-not-to-lynch-whomever"...
Elronhubbard - became a bit more active at some point, not bad, I think there was something a bit curious about some of her posts, but nothing really "big"
Eomer - looks active to me, possibly with somewhat daring behavior, could be either, but does not really make me think him any highly suspicious
Greenie - seems sort of like Alice in the Wonderland, either confused, or acting it very well. It could be many of the under-the-rader-Greenwolves, but there's no real other evidence for that.
Inzil - contributive, but some of his posts especially earlier toDay made me think of him as if he assumed the role of "Mr.Agreeable" here, which might be a smoothy-Wolfdoing
Nogrod - I don't know what to think of him, on one hand, he seems active, but more strongly, he brings some rather dangerous suggestions which would, in my opinion, benefit only the WWs if being advocated - on the other hand, he is sometimes advocating things which are just confused-seeming (lynching the Heir), which would point more to innocence; but overall I am worried about him probably more than less
Lommy - I don't see anything suspicious about her
Nessa - has some interesting points. For some reason though, I think when reading her posts, I keep mixing her up with LRH (sorry both), I think one "homework" for me is to go through the posts of them both carefully to make a really proper opinion...

That all said, this does not bring me any closer to whom to vote, because... (see the above fifty posts of discussion whether we want to lynch a Hunter or whomever. Neverhteless, the list has its merit anyway...)

EDIT: x-ed with many, hey so what, is something actually happening?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

Wait, I thought the heir doesn't know who they are, and are just told that they're an ordo.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

Except for this from The Rules:

The Heir - The Heir is a special role, randomly assigned to an ordo at the beginning of the game. The Heir will not be aware that he or she is the Heir. Regarding the Heir's function - the Heir is nothing more than an ordo until the first non-ordo dies. At that point, the Heir takes on whatever the non-ordo's role was - either becoming a Seer, Ranger, Hunter, or Wolf. In the narration where the Heir's power activates, the role of the deceased player will not be revealed.

The Heir doesn't know they have that role, so how do we possibly find them?

x/d with Legate and Nessa, who bring the same point.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role.

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2).

The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

EDIT: xed since Moddly Dude

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Loslote

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.



But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...



The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

The whole thing really depends on how many people reveal if called for. And I doubt a wolf would be the FIRST of two reveals, merely if they end up being the only one to do so.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

Answer your question?

EDIT: xed since Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Answer your question?

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no? I think that was one thing there. But in any case, at least for now there is no counter-claim... at least for myself (and I think Europeans in general), I am not going to wait for it (not to speak of that it could've been Greenie or somebody who's away...)

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no?

Yes it will, and the wolves will have bagged the heir in the worst scenario as well...

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

A good choice for who?

[Thinlómien]

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues. Yes, they get the heir, but given that we cannot really play so that our first aim is not to let them have him (otherwise we'd just be lynching ordos) the chance is rather big anyway.


xed with Leg and Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues.

If she manages to get the real hunter to reveal it's a mess. But yes, you're right. If she's a wolf and the real hunter stays low now we'll have something. The wolves would gain a lot more by revealing as some other role, that's actually true.

But they get the heir. That's something as well. A new wolf is the hardest to track and we lose our chance of getting the one. If that one is alive in the first place...

Okay, I don't like this at all and I need to go to sleep. I'll relocate and hopefully vote then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something (and it wouldn't have been a nice-sounding something, either, if you'd taken out my special role!).