Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Agan, we all know, is a bit confrontational.

I hope this proves my innocence because I totally wouldn't let Shasta be the Alpha.

Maybe for Eomer or Pitchie (and not because of the Alpha theory, but because I actually do find them suspicious).

I find the part in brackets hilarious.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I hope this proves my innocence because I totally wouldn't let Shasta be the Alpha.

Really, though, I'm inclined to think you mostly innocent. Regardless of the Alpha thing, I don't see you and Shasta being packmates, and you haven't been very suspicious.

Since I don't know if I'll have another chance to get on today...

++Eomer

Good wolf hunting, O village!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Less confrontational? Today I have demanded that we all start being nastier to each other; previously I urged the mods to give Shasta a particularly gruesome death; and I earlier admitted that my bloodlust was so that I could barely think of anything other than lynching Kath - and Kath's reply to this last statement was good-humoured!

So I take that claim, coupled with your vote, with the greatest offence!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Wow, our first dead ordo (on Night 5, how odd).

Whoa, that's true actually. What a strange game.

Originally Posted by Agan

There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.

I don't get this point really, but then again I don't think I get the quote it's about either..

Originally Posted by Agan

Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan

Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch
(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is. Suspecting without actually doing anything about it points to wolf-on-wolf, though as I said that's likely not the case with both (which brings into question if it's the case with either). Agh, I've got a feeling I'm not making much sense, but I'm trying.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

I agree with you on this point. It would have made absolutely no sense at all for EW to single her out like that while mentioning no one else if he hadn't dreamed her innocent. So I, at least, am leaving Lottie alone.

[wilwarin538]

Computer dead, doing this on iPod, won't be able to come on again, sorry!

++Pitch

Kind of random I'm afraid! Good luck!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't get this point really, but then again I don't think I get the quote it's about either..

Me neither. It seems like a bit of a reach on Agan's part, really.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is. Suspecting without actually doing anything about it points to wolf-on-wolf, though as I said that's likely not the case with both (which brings into question if it's the case with either). Agh, I've got a feeling I'm not making much sense, but I'm trying.

No, that makes sense– and I don't know which of them (if it is one) it would be.

However, since I have to go now I'll vote

++Eomer

Apologies if you're innocent, Eomer, because you really helped lynch Shasta yesterDay– but I'm afraid your interactions rubbed me the wrong way, especially towards the end. Like you were overplaying the role of an innocent gloating over a trapped wolf, if you see what I mean.

And I'm sorry for my lack of participation toDay, but I spent the morning and afternoon driving around the country getting footage for a video I'm making, and the evening logging it. So I just wasn't able to be around much.

EDIT:X'd since Greenie.

[Kath]

I'm mildly confused about this focus on Shasta being Alpha meaning that he was 'in charge'. Especially after someone posted that part of the narration in which ALL the wolves were referred to as Alpha. So surely the term has no meaning beyond being a kind of title. As for Shasta saying 'I have two wolf buddies who will rip apart anyone I say' (ish) ... so far as I saw that was just a caught wolf blustering. Can't quite see why people are reading so much into it.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

Yes. If she actually is a wolf and wins the game, we can blame EW.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right? In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

What do you mean with the first sentence?
Anyway it occurred to me that the wolves might have thought Inzil was Tom - after all sally clearly seemed to... at least if they decided to go by Shasta's plan. That would explain why Lottie is still alive, I was expecting her to die because of how EW singled her out.
As for her attack against me, the easiest explanation is that she thought I was actually a wolf, although I'm pretty sure the fact that I suspected her played a part in it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Me neither. It seems like a bit of a reach on Agan's part, really.

If it looks odd to me, I rather point it out than regret it afterwards.

[Formendacil]

So... I came on the Downs approximately 3 hours ago, intending to post here, and completely got sidetracked by the genealogy of the sons of Eärendil, and then got distracted by a process of tangentially related ideas such that... I'm only here now, and with other things to do.

Hopefully, though, you expect nothing else from me at this point, given how the game has gone so far.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is.

In my read-through of posts so far, this is what stuck out to me... largely because I tend to agree--although I'm a bit more willing than Greenie to think they could both be wolves, while conceding that one is, in fact, more likely.

In keeping then, with my yesterDay suspicions about Agan (namely that she was listed with me in Shasta's post for the purposes of exonerating her, convicting me, doing both, or just confusing the village), I'll lean in her direction, though Eomer is giving me bad vibes as well.

++ Aganzir

I may be on later... but I'm not committing to it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Very interesting. Green posits that because Shasta had suspected Aganzir and myself without ever voting for us that it points to the guilt of one of us. I read her point thinking: "No-one will go for that, surely? Shasta was a blabbermouth and suspected a number of people; he can vote for only one per day."

For the record, I know I'm innocent and I believe Aganzir is innocent too (Shasta went strongly against Aganzir).

But immediately, two people buy into it. Nerwen votes for me, in an apologetic way no less. Alarm bells immediately go off. Then Formendacil chooses Agan -- I suspect to avoid accusations of bandwagoning.

Ai, ai! Kath might be innocent yet!

It's Green, Form and Nerwen for the gallows says I!

As an aside I fully expected to be a target for the wolves and their cobbler today, so heed my words should I die.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

it wasn't just strong suspicion, it was an absolute and aggressive conviction of Agan's furriness.

Who knows, maybe she wanted to look like the seer so you'd have lynched me and she would've got rid of a pain in the neck... I want to hear her reasons when the game ends.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I brought it up because I thought it could help me see clearer about Agan, but as things are, it doesn't very much.

If you're asking if I'm Tom - nope. However, I'm pretty sure I know who they are, and should they say so, I can share it with the rest of you (that's not forbidden, is it? ).

Also, I seriously consider voting for Form now. When he bothers to show up, he votes for me because Shasta mentioned him and me in the same post yesterday.

[Pitchwife]

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.

Well, technically she was deadful to begin with, but yay for her being doubleplusdeadful. Well done, Tom!
(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right? In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

And R.I.P. Zil. Rereading yesterDays proceedings, it became clear even to me that he had to be innocent - with that temper on both sides of his fight with Shasta, no way it could have been staged. So his death wasn't really a big surprise.
(Although, in principle, with TEW's role revealed it must have been clear to the wolves that Shasta would be yesterDay's lynch, so it would have made sense for his packmates to push it in order to increase their own chances. Those who argued the most for it - i.e. Lottie, Eomer, Nerwen , among the living - obviously look good now, but there could still be a wolf in there (not saying there has to).)

Zil suggested looking at the TEW voters from Day 3, and I've started going through Lottie's posts from the beginning, because I suspected her quite heavily on Day 1 but haven't concentrated on her since. It does look like TEW dreamed her innocent on Night 2, mainly because I think he would have made sure to leave some clues in the few words he posted, but I'd just like to see for myself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Well, technically she was deadful to begin with, but yay for her being doubleplusdeadful. Well done, Tom!
(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right?

Sally stunned Zil last Night. It's in the narration.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

Originally Posted by TEH ROOLZ

The B-W may not stun the same person twice in a row.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

Yes. EDIT: No, it was wilwa the night before, I was before that.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

I don't think she would've attacked me the way she did if she had thought I was Tom. It would've made more sense for her to butter me up, just so I wouldn't get suspicious and check her.

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm now going to go through everyone's (at least if I have the energy) posts and see how they talked of Shasta.

OOC: Pitch, they miss you in Palantir of Fortune.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't think she would've attacked me the way she did if she had thought I was Tom. It would've made more sense for her to butter me up, just so I wouldn't get suspicious and check her.

Makes sense. I'm at a loss, though, with what could have made Sally-Wight go so heavily after someone just randomly. The thing is, it wasn't just strong suspicion, it was an absolute and aggressive conviction of Agan's furriness. I'm off for a walk now anyway, will try to give that some thought.

[Aganzir]

FORM
He never talked of Shasta before yesterday, and then he dedicated several paragraphs to discussing what it means that Shasta mentioned him and me together (he suggests Shasta was shielding me). It looks funny because it didn't even occur me to suspect Form because of it ("Oh the dying wolf is just throwing names there."), and thus he looks quite jumpy (wanting to point it out before anyone else did). He voted for wilwa on day 1 because apparently entertaining trumps useful (this I find a possible cobbler hint).

KATH
Summarised Shasta's day 2 posts (along with everyone else's) and said she didn't like how Shasta jumped on a comment of Inzil's but didn't like how they tried to out the seer, either. Later she said Shasta was leaning guilty (as well as Nog, Inzil, EW & Volo): although his words had been taken out of context a lot, he focused on the seer too much and could be the cobbler. On day 3 she made a new summary but didn't have time for Shasta (and Form & sally). She ended up giving the decisive vote that lynched EW whose playing style she didn't like, and although she xed with a lot of votes, the situation was ultimately the same because in the last tally she saw, everyone was tied at 1. Based on how she talked of Shasta, she could be a wolf who had decided to put some pressure on a fellow, but she could as well be innocent. However, her vote for EW isn't too good-looking.

GREENIE
Unless I missed something, she doesn't even mention Shasta until day 3 (granted, she didn't post much, but still). Then, she hadn't ignored the possibility of him being a wolf (which she always does when he is one), and he looks ok. This would be a very convenient way to treat a fellow, but when you look at how she talked of us others, it wasn't much different. The same day, she made an analysis of EW and concluded he seemed consistent in his inconsistency and she was uneasy with how much he flip-flopped. In hindsight it's pretty obvious he was the seer - and it must have been obvious to the wolves. If Greenie is a wolf, having the guts to quote all EW's posts and conclude he looks slightly fishy is bravery that borders on idiocy (and I wouldn't put it past her - but she could have voted for him simply with "He's so quiet!"). She thought Shasta looked genuine, and voted for EW, tying him with me, Eomer and Zil (although she xed, so for all she knew, she was only tying him with me).

WILWA
Argues with Shasta on day 2 regarding his assumptions & suggestion of trying to figure out who the wolves attacked. It looks genuine, and I find it hard to believe they would've staged it. She considered voting for him but said she probably wouldn't because it was mostly a case of her not agreeing with him. I'm willing to bet she isn't a wolf. Of course she might still be the cobbler, but even that seems highly unlikely.

NERWEN
Comments a lot on the things Shasta says, but says precious little about him. Shasta's vote for Volo is mentioned as part of the group "nastily opportunistic".

PITCH
Shasta looked the best to him on day 1, after one single post. On day 2 he comments on Shasta's theory but doesn't really state on opinion on the people involved. It's not so much an argument but rather he just questions Shasta. Later, he wonders about Shasta (and Nerwen) who seemed to suggest Nog was the BW impersonating the seer. He says EW's vote isn't as bad as Shasta (and Lottie) made it look, but trying to lynch a supposed seer would be quite dangerous - however, EW might not have thought it through. He says he wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine (EW) in lack of better options, but follows Shasta (who, he's inclined to think, is innocent) in saying he could vote for Zil which he does.

EOMER
Doesn't even mention Shasta before EW's death (but then, he was pretty quiet until then). Since then, Eomer is convinced Shasta is a wolf and doesn't consider other possibilities.

I'm not going to waste my time going through Lottie's posts because I'm quite sure she's innocent.

Nerwen, Eomer & Pitch all had a conveniently nonchalant attitude towards Shasta before EW's death.

The EW voters Greenie & Kath: Greenie's overall treatment of Shasta looks worse than Kath's, Kath's vote worse than Greenie's.

Form's worry about being mentioned by Shasta makes it look like he has a reason to think it should point at him... but apart from that, he's been so quiet it's much more difficult to place him than the others.

wilwa is the only person on the list who I think could not be a wolf.

It's quite hard to say who looks the most suspicious. I'd dare a guess both Greenie & Kath aren't wolves, at least... Just because lynching the seer who has dreamed of a wolf isn't the best-looking thing to do.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally stunned Zil last Night. It's in the narration.

Aw, you're right, I'd forgotten.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

I think wilwa said she was stunned the Night before yesterDay, and Agan said she was the Night before that, so sally could have stunned her last Night but didn't, hence my conclusion that sally was either wrong about Agan or changed her mind, or both. I brought it up because I thought it could help me see clearer about Agan, but as things are, it doesn't very much.

Agan - OK, buttering up would be a viable tactic, but I think she'd have wanted Tom dead before xe could get her, hence it looks to me like she thought it was you. But that might have been too obvious.

About the Alpha thing - Lottie's right that I generally wouldn't mind letting an experienced wolf like Shasta take the lead, but I don't know that we'd have exactly gotten on like a house on fire. Clashing personalities, I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Agan

OOC: Pitch, they miss you in Palantir of Fortune.

Well, wilwa at least seems to have pity on them...