Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I notice the only thing Eomer's put forth today is that he agrees with Nerwen about the possibility of wolves holding their votes until late, and doesn't see anything Seerish about Nog. It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf. He's striking me as 'bored ordo' right now, but I could still vote him on principle! *mean look*

Remember the game when Eowolf and I made you our first Night-kill? (Rhetoric question, I don't think you've forgotten it so soon...) He was almost as lazy then as he is now, mostly going after Greenie in an apodictic way with no clearly explained reasons, exactly like he voted Agan on Day1. I certainly wouldn't rule him out as a wolf... or maybe a Wight.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why shouldn't we, Inzil? It's a given fact that quiet players are harder to catch at anything than loud players simply because of the amount of talking they do. Plus I'm for lynching lurkers on principle and always have been.

Agreed. And it's interesting Zil said this, given his vote for Kath. Another brick in the wall.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Inzil is currently topping my "will vote for" list, followed by Eomer.

You know what, I could actually get behind this.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Inziladun

I'm more bothered by what he's said today than what he's said previously, and that's saying something.

I'm voting now because I'll be around, but extremely sporadically, and I'd hate to not vote at all.

[A Little Green]

Since no one seems to have done this yet - unless I've missed something our current vote tally looks like this:

Elf-Warrior – Shasta
Nerwen – Agan
Loslote – Elf-Warrior
Inzil – Kath
Wilwa – Eomer
Shasta – Inzil

So no one with more than one vote.

[Aganzir]

I'd rather we didn't lynch Inzil today, even with Pitch's comments on how he suspected Volo I don't think he looks too bad (I mean, no one who reputedly looks like me can look too bad ) and he at least talks.

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Left: Agan, Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch, sally

[Aganzir]

I just realised Eomer will be modfired too if he doesn't show up. Let's see how this goes...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You mean if he doesn't vote, right? He has posted today.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You mean if he doesn't vote, right? He has posted today.

Yeah. I meant it like, "if he doesn't show up before deadline."

I almost wish that happened... just because I'm mean like that. At least I wouldn't have to wonder about them anymore.

[A Little Green]

A QUICK LOOK AT THE ELF-WARRIOR. (I accidentally typed "the wlf-warrior" - wonder if that's a signal from my unconscious? )

Uncharacteristical to an analysis made by me, I will quote all his posts. After all, there are but eight of them in total with a significant percentage of one-liners. So here goes:

Day 1

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves.

These two first ones are basically just Day 1 banter, not really noteworthy.

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

This Legate-180 concerning the BW makes me feel a bit better about EW - I'd think a wolf would try to be consistent and avoid such open changes of mind.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

It's not that there was much (or any) discussion on other topics than cobblers and barrow-wights at that point, but EW never talks about his suspicions before his vote post:

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

Referring, I think, to Volo talking about some baddie being killed "silently during the Night" (can't remember the exact quote though). Not a very strong reason but compared to some other votes that Day it can't really be faulted for that.

Day 2

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I probably won't post any more toDay. I have to work past the deadline and I'd better get some sleep. Bye.

His only post of the Day. He does seem notably flip-floppy and points it out himself.

Day 3

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,

That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

And again, a new suspect out of the blue.

Aaand that's it! Conclusions? EW seems consistent in being inconsistent if you know what I mean. I'm slightly uneasy with how much he's flip-flopping. Flip-flopping in itself is by no means evil, and for example in the Barrow-Wight issue it looked like a genuine change of opinion, but I don't like the way he suspects somebody and completely drops it the next Day. Of course people's suspicions change, they are bound to, but I'm at a loss with what happened to suspecting Eomer between Days 2 and 3 - though it's of course possible he simply suspected Shasta more than Eomer toDay. He's certainly acting odd, but still I'm not sure a Wolf-Warrior would be so overtly and openly inconsistent.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan, Kath and Sally

[Kath]

Yay for no Night kill coming by the way. Form will likely be spitting though.

wilwa: States the obvious but I'm not complaining, it's good to know where we stand. Oh answered Pitch anyway. Not a fan of ElfHe either. Supports lynching a quiet player. Sure since it means you're safe.

Inzil: Says we can put Shasta's theory to rest. Sure, but let's not just ignore all the debate around it - such talk can often hold clues in later Days once we know more roles. Thinks Shasta may be a Cobbler. Bit of a defence of sally after Agan said 'let's lynch a quiet player'. Analyses me! Exciting. Someone answered the 'rules' thing already.

Lottie: Is she saying that because Nog wasn't TBW that means Eomer is more likely to be? Not sure about that logic. And why does Agan have to be evil for that to be possible? Have I just missed an explanatory post somewhere on this? Ah ok, got it. I can sort of see where she's coming from ... if we're accepting that wolves follow blindly the suggestions of the Day. Given the potential wolves we have I'm not sure that's the case. I like the thinking-through though. "What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?" <-- No sorry I'm confused again. If Nog were being framed and had actually been lynched yesterDay Shastawolf would have been able to move on and kill someone else. The fact that Nog wasn't lynched may have led Shastawolf to suggest killing him so the village goes 'oh well unlikely Shasta is a wolf to have done that'. But we're on to double/triple bluffing tactics and that just gets impossible. Says she might vote for ElfHe or Eomer. Votes ElfHe for being a submarine.

Nerwen: Following Lottie's ideas better than I was! Volo-voters analysis. As a thought, I thought Nog meant that Eomer made more sense as in his meaning-making was better not that Eomer made more sense as a wolf. Votes Agan ... um? Wish people would put reasons in their vote-posts, I'm assuming this is for being a Volo-voter.

ElfHe: Well there's some reasoning in here at least. Votes Shasta for twisting Lottie's words. Why such a strenuous defence of Lottie I don't know, but he seems pretty convinced about Shasta. I don't like the playing style I must say, this popping in and out with single posts.

Eomer: Agrees with Nerwen that a wolf is likely in the Volo-voters. Says he didn't see Nog as Seerish and thus odd wolf kill. Easy to say in hindsight.

Pitch: Volo as Ranger could have known wilwa wasn't TBW. If he protected her Night 1, when the wolves went after TBW, then clearly wilwa isn't TBW as there was no mention of the Ranger in the narration. That's how I read it anyway. He didn't though know her actual role. Says Inzil had tried to make Volo look self-contradictory which is suspicious.

Agan: Not quite a defence of ElfHe but pretty close. Analyses Inzil and finds him non-suspicious. Suggests lynching a quiet player, specifically sally. Says Inzil's reasons may be less innocent looking but that his suspicion of Volo was fair.

Greenie: Thinks Agan voting for Volo was odd because she knows he always plays in the way she suspected him for. Apart from Shasta and wilwa has no concrete thoughts. So if she's a wolf, one of those two is a packmate and the other an innocent. Some good thoughts in there.

Oh and can I mention how much I LOVE this game for the fact that there are only two pages to catch up on! Bliss. <-- Wrote that before I realised I was out of time. I've not got to the end so will have to vote based on what I have got.

[Kath]

I have to say if you consider me quiet NOW Inzil then you're in for a shocker. I've been downright loud this game!

Also, yes it would have made a difference to my vote yesterDay if I'd seen Form's post before I voted because I was voting for him based on the fact that he'd made two posts with absolutely no helpfulness in them that in fact only contained complaining about the situation. My 'guilty' and 'innocent' lists were 'leaning toward' not 'certain' and having just read Form's posts he'd wound me up.

Whoever said I gave wilwa a free pass, I included her in my analysis twice and got confused about what I thought about her. As I seemed to have come to two totally different conclusions I decided to leave it be.

My battery is about to die so I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so. Can't promise a major look at the Day as I'm pushed for time. I'll also answer any questions I've missed along the way, or if you have more throw them my way.

[Pitchwife]

Two hours to DL, is that right? (I'm not quite sure because daylight serving time has ended in Germany last night)

OK, some thoughts on the Volowagon.
wilwa voted Volo for being weird and illogical and talking without saying anything helpful. Fair enough, and she was the first to vote him, so no wolvish bandwagoning here.
Agan found Volo weird too, and voted him for voting her after he'd suspected Greenie, on which I've commented above. She also has some possibly cobblerish behaviour from Day 1 against her. I don't know, I keep excusing her just because we get along so well, and I agree with many things she keeps saying inbetween. Note that she's also agreed with me a lot, which should worry me as it could be wolvish buttering-up. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but I'm not sure I'd raise a hand to save her either.
Zil - third vote on the wagon, and his previously stated suspicion of Volo looks shaky bordering on fishy to me. Not so happy with his vote toDay either.
Shasta - x-ed with Zil, could be a bandwagoning wolf as well, and I don't at the moment remember whether he'd talked that much about Volo earlier. His posts toDay make me more inclined to think him innocent, however (which is quite alarming - last time I thought that he turned out to be a wolf...)
(Nog - known innocent)

From the above, I think I could vote Zil. Other than that, I could vote for Eomer again; on the other hand it would be quite nice to leave him (and sally?) to Modfire and not waste a lynch on a submarine, giving us a chance to get a louder wolf instead.

(x-ed with sally pp.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Two hours to DL, is that right?

Half an hour until DL, pumpkin.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not sure I'd raise a hand to save her either.

Pitch! I thought you were a gentleman.

My thoughts in a nutshell:

GUILTY
sally
Nerwen
Eomer
Shasta

INNOCENT
Greenie
wilwa
Pitch
Lottie
Zil

EITHER
Form
Kath
EW

I'd prefer to vote for one on my Guilty list, preferably sally or Eomer.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

GUILTY
sally

Yes, clearly, because I've caught you in your guilt in the what, three posts I've made all game? Goodness, you've got me! *feigns unease*

Also, I laugh heartily at that Pitch comment.


Need to leave soon-ish, or at least get ready to do so, so I'll be away for a few minutes.