Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts.

Good point, though I have to disagree with a part of it. With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine. The BW has no such knowledge, and will likely seem just like and ordo in that sense.

Originally Posted by Agan

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.

I know it's unlikely. That is why I labelled it as "the most fearsome scenario" instead of "the likely scenario", you know. It was simply the worst possible scenario I could come up with when thinking about the cobbler business.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine.

Yeah that's true, but we have no way of knowing what's genuine and what isn't until we have more information, and even then there might be misguided innocents who look ah so guilty. Although I suppose my comment about the knowledge of not being innocent showing in the wolves' posts comes, in the end, down to the posts not looking genuine... So we seem to be talking about essentially the same thing, just from different points of view.
Anyway I still think it's possible to see the BW is hiding something, just like players might look different when they're playing a gifted.

I like Greenie for now. This is unusual because normally I always suspect her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

*awaits Kath's response*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

Too complicated, I think.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

That is something: there's certainly liable to be some kind of signalling among the baddies– they've got a lot to gain by it this game. That doesn't mean it'll be anything so obvious, of course.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:

Originally Posted by The Rules

The innocents win if they eliminate all evils from their town (wolves and Barrow-wight) - this includes Tom Bombadil.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:

Heh. I read that as meaning Tom wins if he and the rest of the innocents get rid of the wolves and the BW. Unless Tom's been hiding some dark secret?

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Zil

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

As I've mentioned (briefly anyways), TBW acts in the same fashion as the Werebear did, minus the killing. Having had personal experience as the Bear (and finally getting caught on Day 3 ), I can tell you now that in our case, we should not worry too much about TBW as of right now.

My reasoning? In games with the Bear, it is up to the innocents to find xem along with finding the Wolves. It's much more difficult, however, to catch the Bear as xey have no ties with anyone but themselves and wanting victory for xself. However, the difference for us in this game is that there is a role specifically designed to go after TBW, thus eliminating our need to worry about TBW for the time being. I'm not saying we should forget TBW altogether, but at least for now, let Tom be the one to worry about it. Even as it is, as an innocent, I'm not too worried about TBW as is. He will only affect those with Nightly abilities, which sucks for us if he happens to nail our Seer or Ranger.

I am much more inclined to agree with Greenie and say let's abandon the talk of TBW for now and concentrate on the Cobblers, which (especially after the last game ) pose a much bigger threat to us.

Originally Posted by Greenie

In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.

Indeed that would be a most devastating position for the village to be in if it so happens that Ferny does find the other one and has an idea of the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Agan

We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I was looking at this and I do like this plan. My only issue with it is, even the TBW is totally playing for himself, the Wolves might find a way of using it to their advantage. But on the flip side of that coin, there stands the chance that we could catch a Wolf trying to do just that.

Now, going back to the Cobbler issue, is there any way we could use Agan's little plan there to oust the Cobblers? I know it would be much more difficult seeing as there is no one at Night gunning for them.

I'm going to go wrack my brain some more and think of something.

PS: Sorry I'm all of the place with this, tired and trying to stay up for another five hours before bed and work again

EDIT: X'ed with Agan, Pitch and Vanilwamuffin

[Boromir88]

Mod note on Bombadil:

Sorry for the confusion in that first post. Tom is on the innocent team, his priority is the wight, but he also wants all evils gone from Bree. That note was intended to say Tom is included as an innocent and thus wants the village victory over both BW and the wolves.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player.

Exactly... and we can't count on the wolves to drop hints to the cobbler(s) because it's simply not worth it for them. Even though this game is different from many I've played in the sense that the cobbler(s) actually have a chance of finding the wolves without blatant hinting in the thread. Anyway if we want to find links, we should look into a dead cobbler's communication with other players, or how other players have talked to a dead wolf.

Aside, does anybody else think that Boro included two cobblers in this game in order to increase the chance that at least one of them won't be eaten by the wolves?

Hahaha!

If, however, we think we have a good idea who xe is, or if the Seer dreams xem and decides to reveal, I'm for getting rid of xem as soon as possible, rather than wait for Tom to get xem.

I agree, especially later in the game. Early on, yeah, I suppose we could afford to keep the BW alive for an extra day, but when most of us have died, it's simply too risky to give the BW a chance to join the wolves.

They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days

This is a very good point.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night

Ah but they will. The ordo gets a PM that says she was stunned (see the rules). That's why telling it to the rest of us does no more than eliminate a potential BW, thus making it easier for Tom & us to find her.

and even if we know that someone isn't the BW there are still alot of things they could be, so it really isn't worth taking so much time focusing on him.

But if we let her go unnoticed and don't pay any attention to her whatsoever, it can backfire really badly later. Hmm why do I have a feeling I've talked of this before? Oh yes this is how I usually treat the cobbler!

I'm not saying the BW should be our priority and we need to worry about her more than about the wolves & cobblers, what I'm saying is that we shouldn't forget and ignore her just because she might choose to side with us or Tom might hit it right and kill her. We simply can't refuse to pay attention to an unknown factor like that.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, going back to the Cobbler issue, is there any way we could use Agan's little plan there to oust the Cobblers? I know it would be much more difficult seeing as there is no one at Night gunning for them.

What exactly do you mean?

Alrighty I'll be gone for a few hours.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.

I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.

As for speculating on whether a wolf might try to pretend to be the BW, why not? If there's a consensus we're not going to lynch someone just because they look like the BW, it'll be more than convenient for a wolf to do exactly that. Wolves have pretended to be cobblers if the village has thought finding the cobbler isn't important.
However, impersonating the BW is almost equal to trying to look like an ordo which is what wolves do, anyway...

Originally Posted by Volo

since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

For the record, I'm most likely not going to vote for Form or Volo today because it's ages since I played with them.

edit: xed with Nerwen & Zil. I read it the same way as Zil, although it did give me a moment's what the heck pause when I first read it.

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
sally. I read her post and was like, "What. The. Heck?" As I said, she basically repeats what has been said about me, and votes for me because "I can see an evil her doing what she did." She has played with me enough times to know me better. Also, she claims I only want to get rid of the BW. That's utter nonsense - my opinion is that we shouldn't ignore her, it's not the same as making lynching her our primary goal.
Glirdan. Seems kind of easy-going. I don't know what to think of his being the only one to like my BW voting plan (in hindsight I agree it'd probably be too confusing); when most people seem to say it's problematic, it would probably make sense for a baddie to try to back it up. And I agree with Greenie on random votes.
Volo. I still don't understand why he thinks the BW could reveal stuff about gifteds if threatened with a lynch. I'm probably not the right person to say anything about this, but I'm also a bit worried about how much he seems to concentrate on the BW. Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).

INNOCENT
Greenie. I mostly agree with her and she looks normal (as opposed to a statue, I mean, forced - sorry ).
Pitch. Makes more sense than most others (especially his points about the BW are good) and looks innocentish.
wilwa. I thought her initial reaction to my BW suggestions was really suspicious, but then she brought up the possibility of the stunned having died in the night. Now she looks more innocent than guilty.
EW. Hasn't said enough for me to form a solid opinion, but seems more innocent than guilty.

EITHER
Inzil. I like that he pointed out that a cobbler shouldn't be ignored - but then again, that seems to be the modus operandi after last game. Apart from that, I don't have anything about him.
Lottie. I don't really like her insistence that we shouldn't try to lynch the BW. Pitch has a good point against her, but I haven't seen enough from her (apart from BW talk) to have a real opinion.
Nog. Misunderstands me so badly I'm half tempted to think it's intentional... but then, Nog and I have a history of disagreeing. His main points against me are based on the said misunderstanding, and the rest of his points look exaggerated as if he was just trying to put me in a bad light. However, I'll abstain from further comments till he's back and has explained himself.

The rest haven't said enough for me to form a solid opinion on them. However I'm going to kill Eomer if I end up being lynched.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do

I can't see how it would harm them. On the contrary - the BW would know they didn't want to make it public, and should she choose to play for us, she might find a way to share that information. Plus giving the impression of cooperating with the village is never a bad idea for a wolf...
It's probably not much use to talk about it anymore, though, because it's as you said - the BW can easily pretend to have been stunned if her pick for the night has died.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

could be a bold Aganwolf attempting to lead and manipulate us, could just as well be an innocent Agan trying actively to make strategies that would benefit us.

Trust me, this time it's the latter.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

that revealing will only mean confusion and opportunities especially for the cobblers to toy with.

And why should the cobbler want to cause confusion that way and draw attention to herself. Yeah of course there might be some situations, but I think you make it sound much bigger a problem than it really would be. In this game, the cobblers probably want to survive as long as possible.

I can see you are not exactly saying there that the gifteds should reveal...

Seriously Nog. Either you are completely underestimating my intelligence or being dishonest. I would never in my right mind suggest the gifteds to reveal just like that.

you've tried it now two times - more or less succesfully - to make us discuss other things than who the wolves are.

And what would Mr. Nogrod like to discuss on day 1 when barely half the village has posted? This person is a wolf because she posted first, that isn't because she said "I want to vote for a quiet one!"?
I have talked about something else than who the wolves are. So what? If we want to discuss the freaking rules (and I wanted), what's a better time for that than day 1? What's the issue? See, now you're making me talk of irrelevant (ie. something else than who's a wolf) things more and more, the next thing you're probably going to throw it back in my face: "She isn't talking of wolves lynch her!!!"

we have been talking about it considerably, aka. not trying to find the wolves (like I'm now losing my time answering your plan and what you have said about it

Well, for that you can only blame yourself, not me.

I really feel like voting Nog at the moment because he looks fairly bad and that's simply not like him. He's totally twisting my words and trying to put me in a bad light.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

It is extremely unlikely the BW catches a gifted each night, so I don't see what's the problem.

in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

[Aganzir]

The votes:
Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan

Thanks guys.

As for me, I could vote today for sally, Nogrod, Volo (if one of us has to die, I'd much rather it was him ), maybe Glirdan (if doing that helps me save myself). The people I'm not voting for (unless something very drastic happens) are Greenie, wilwa, EW, Form, Inzil, Pitch.

Now for some tea.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It is extremely unlikely the BW catches a gifted each night, so I don't see what's the problem.

One Night is enough. If everyone is thought of telling and then one Day no one doesn't - the BW has a BINGO. And when people tell, the wolves have a good candidate for consideration ("the BW thought of that as a gifted, let's consider her/him as well more closely").

And I wouldn't like to put our gifteds into that position. If you would, then you probably have evil intentions. Or you don't think clearly (which I doubt as I do know you're an intelligent person).


Anyway. It's getting late and I'm done with this discussion. I need to take a look back on others and will not be derailed by cobblerish second questions. And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

For I do agree this lazyness on behalf of most of the village is just plain shameful and I could actually vote fex. Glirdan just on the basis of pure annoyance... *random vote, please*

EDIT: X'd with Agan

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

Negative. B-W has to be the last one left. Anything short of that and it would consider its purpose a failure.

I have realized the mistake in the numbers though. Since the B-W is not counted in either the baddie nor innocent tally, but can still vote. A village with 1 wolf + 1 innocent + the Barrow-wight, the remaining wolf could still get lynched. If the innocent or B-W is lynched the wolves win. If the wolf is lynched the B-W wins. The remaining innocent is basically screwed but in the position to decide which baddie wins? *shrug*

So adendum to the wolves winning condition. If the Barrow-wight is still alive, the wolves win if the number of innocents is 1 less than their own. If the Barrow-wight is gone, the wolves win if the number of innocents is equal (or less) than their own.

How come no one pointed these holes out before we started! You had a week, you're forcing me into snap decisions!

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
Nogrod. I'm really torn about him. It seems he's being all crazy only when he's talking with/about me - his "how about we lynch a submarine?" suggestion was good, and I find myself agreeing with his post #98 - but then he keeps misunderstanding me and continues his ridiculous cobbler campaign. Plus what Shasta & Nerwen mentioned about the holes in his argument.
sally. I dislike her vote for me yesterday ("Agan could do this as a baddie, ergo she is a baddie"), she just agreed on what others (mostly Volo) had said about me. Plus, I find this comment off:

Originally Posted by sally

Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

It might be just me, but I'd think an innocent reaction to a day 1 bandwagon would be "Eep, I hope it's not a catastrophe," but sally seems like she doesn't care.
Volo. Again, I'm suspicious of him because he suspects me (but when you're innocent, you know everyone who attacks you is either wrong or evil). He was suspicious of Greenie and voted for me only (it seemed) because I found her innocent, and today he comes here with lots of reasons for my being suspicious, one of them that I was happy to talk about the cobblers. Plus I agree with Shasta on his absolutes.
Nerwen. For pushing the idea of my being the cobbler without giving reasons before I asked, and suspecting me for something I always do.
Shasta. I disagree with him on the whole "who could the wolves have attacked?" thing, and I think it's more in a baddie's than an innocent's interests to make us waste our time on it.

INNOCENT
Greenie. I also disagree with her on the importance of discussing who the wolves might have targeted (for now), but apart from that nothing has changed.
wilwa. I find myself agreeing with her and she looks generally innocent.
Pitch. See wilwa.
Loslote. I seem to disagree with her on everybody, but now that she's posted more, she actually looks quite innocent.

EITHER
Eomer. In the process of perfecting the art of saying as little as possible in as many words as possible (but he's amusing).
Form. Lots of philosophical rambling about himself.
Inzil. I simply can't read him. I should probably take a look at him at some point if I have time.
Kath. Evil, if nothing else for saying everybody's happy if I'm lynched. See Inzil.
EW. My gut feeling is he's innocent - he posts way too little to my liking, but he doesn't remind me of the EW wolf I played with a while ago. I don't mind if he's lynched though.

I'd prefer to vote for Nog, Volo or sally (I suspect Nog the most, but Volo and sally are quieter), but I could also go for someone in my Either category (not Inzil though before I've had a look at him, and I don't want to vote for Nerwen or Shasta either).