Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Nerwen]

So, where do the different lines of reasoning lead us?

1. Theory: Mira was killed as the only Seer-candidate who hadn't listed an Elf as innocent (or wasn't a Elf). Other possible "Seers" would be would be Rune (Lommy, Kath, phantom), Folwren (Nerwen, Inzil, Lommy), phantom (copied Rune's list, substituting Rune's name for his).
Implicates: Rune, Kath, Lommy (twice), Zil. And Folwren for the sake of argument, though after yesterDay there's much against the idea that she is an Elf. A good deal against Zil being one, too.

2. Theory: Greenie went after Nerwen (rep) because there was no innocent non-rep she could have lynched easily.
Implicates: Steve. Perhaps Legate? (I'd have to re-read; reckon she could have got Steve lynched, anyway/)


3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead):
Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Here for a short moment, just briefly...

Originally Posted by the phantom

Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree?

Looks like that to me, and I think that's the basic line I am going to hold. I need to review all; in any case, I don't think it's some 100% free pass, but basically I would try to go with that and refrain from voting the three of you.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

couldn't our Seer have been someone who, I don't know, participated?

Basically exactly the same wording of what I wanted to say as I saw it...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Given her rep vote for Phantom early on, I'm inclined to think Phantom was her Night 1 dream.

i
Well, I think it doesn't necessary mean that - it could just have been a good way to cast a random vote, hoping to get lost in the crowd of phantom-voters and get some pass for the Day from the SoE (for being a bit suspicious, and too random for being the Seer). It would expose her to some threat of being lynched, but then, there were like two other people who did the same, so she could have hoped for merging with the crowd, so to say, and not feeling the threat so strongly.

I find it more likely that she'd dream of phantom later - certainly after the Day 1 events, I think in any case, every Seer would do that. But I didn't really have time to go through all her posts and am working only based on my memory and what others quote here. I will look at her posts later myself. Not that it seems to matter whether she dreamt of tp on Night 1 or whatnot. Basically the three-list above is the thing I am going to use. It is quite lucky that anyway, if it is so, she didn't dream of somebody who died at the same Night - that's actually what I had been afraid of all the time, since the Seer didn't seem to come out with any dreams.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So what tipped them off to Mira? She did so little else that I think it must have been her post at #627– specifically, her list of three innocents. Thing is, I don't think you (phantom) were the only other per person who made a list of three, so that might tell us something. (Need to check.)

There was at least phantom and especially Foley with sorta similar list and possibly some Seer-ish things ("don't lynch Nerwen"). There definitely must be reasons why the SoE chose Mira over everybody else, that's also worth looking at - but will have to do it when I come back.

Okay, whatever, gotta run now. Will be back later toDay, in several hours...

[Nerwen]

Hey, anyone around? I'm lonely.

By the way–

Originally Posted by Great WW Quotes of Our Time

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, anyone around? I'm lonely.

I'm here momentarily, but maybe not for long, since I just got into work and see all the voice and e-mails.

I do like the quote, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead):
Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)

Not going to disagree, it was a forced vote to some extend.

It was not like I had anything in particular against voting for Greenie, but I wouldn't have done it if it wasn't for you guys and Folwren.

People are starting to talk a lot about Lommy, I for some reason have had a lot of faith in her.

First I thought she made sense and appeared very innocent, after that she made a post where she claimed to know Me, Legate and Nogrod quite well and believed us all to be innocent.

I am quite a ware that a SoE could easily create such a list as they know exactly who is innocent and who isn't, but in this case I chose to believe that it was pure skill that made her pick innocents. (This is also the reason I haven't really paid attention to Legate, also I can never get a read on him)

I will not end this post with a conclusion, I am merely telling you what thoughts I have had about Lommy.