Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Thinlómien]

Okay, a list (this is probably the only way I can really try to think of stuff, if you discount rereading, which I didn't do because I'm a failure and read a book and started writing something random instead...)

Foley - the most innocent person in this cave after me. Says stuff a SoE just wouldn't say plus seems very genuine in her reactions (see the end of yesterDay for example). If she's a SoE I don't really mind losing to her.

Greenie - I've started to suspect her (quite randomly) BUT I think last time I played with her I believed her innocent until came the phase when I start getting paranoid bacuse of lack of suspects and then we lynched her and she was innocent. So I have an eerie feeling that history might be repeating itself and she's probably innocent like I said in the beginning.

Kath - she's so difficult! I'd love to think she's innocent because I've had such nice (totally game unrelated, of course) chats with her on msn recently but I shouldn't let her sweetness thwart me. She is always a bit of an enigma for me, because even though she says her opinions, she always seems a bit detached from the other people in the game in a weird way. Something in her "easy" opinions disturbs me but then again her analysis of her own suspicion of Rune seemed more like something an innocent would do - a SoE could just be lazy and say "it's a gut feeling" since so many people do that anyway that it's not particularily suspicious.

Legate - still thinking he is most likely innocent despite a fishy vote or two. It's the general manner that seems like his innocent self. Like somebody said, he tends to be more "polished" and careful as a wolf. Of course, he might be fooling me completely (which might mean I'm going to cancel all possible plans concerning travelling to the Czech Republic in near future. )

Mira - not around much, thereby no read. We can always pose questions like: wouldn't she be around more if she was a wolf? Or: wouldn't she be more wacky as a wolf? But I can't answer "yes" to these questions without hesitation, so she remains an enigma. I appreciate her effort in the game even though she's now sick, but before she was sick her efforts seemed a bit half-hearted. I wonder if that means being ordo is boring or being SoE makes her lazy to concentrate on wolf hunt. (Or I can come up with several more explanation but I don't like them so much because they don't tell anything about her role... )

Nerwen - I voted her for rep toDay and now I'm wondering if it was smart. I had a feeling she's innocent, and her tone is more like innocent Nerwen than guilty Nerwen. The difference is not big, but innocent Nerwen usually seems more down-to-earth than the slightly dramatic and more bantery wolf Nerwen (if my perception is correct). Greenie's analysis made me slightly worried, though, because it raised some points against her that I had not considered (for example her reactions to the Night kill choices). D-i-f-f-i-c-u-l-t, once again.

Phantom - he's either an innocent who's not fooling me or a SoE who is fooling me. Much prefer explanation #1 and think it more probable. I remember, though, one game where he and I were the wolves and we floated neatly unsuspected from Day1 to the end discounting the obligatory "phantom sucks" suspicion on Day1. I could see him floating like that in this game too.

Rune - like I and somebody else have said several times, he has had quite an easy and relaxing game this far so it's been difficult to judge him based on his reactions. I truly have no idea about him at the moment. I'd like to believe him innocent since I have no real suspicion towards him but atr this point I can't afford being so lenient.

Shasta - has weirdly become my top suspect. I was thinking of him just a while ago and thinking: "What else has he done than argued with phantom, tried to get Sally lynched and buddied Nerwen up?" And I couldn't come up with anything. I could see the scenario so well: a sneaky Shastawolf tries to create no suspicion or extra connections. Everybody knows that he and Sally take contact with each other in ww, that he always wages war with tp and that he has this ww "romance" with Nerwen. Simply his choice of focus seems too easy, and also his strategy: choose one innocent victim to concentrate on, write about phantom so you don't have to write about anything else, buddy up with an innocent who's your friend OR make a convenient voting arrangement with a fellow with a good cover excuse. I also really wonder why Greenie (and Nerwen...?) find him so innocent. Fellow wolves?

Steve - Zil's analysis actually made me feel better about him. There's not really anything too bad that would stand out and he's not quite as fishy as I thought. Still, my read on him atm is very lousy.

Zil - I have the same problem with him as ever. He seems calm, reasonable, reliable and a a bit cold, and it's hard to see his personal feelings or emotional reactions. (Ok ok maybe I shouldn't be surprised given his RL job. ) I have zero reason to suspect him, and that's disturbing. It's just simply difficult to get anything out of this guy.

Hey, yay! See? This made me think! Now I'm happy. I'll summarise for you:

Leaning innocent
Foley
Legate
Phantom

Difficult
Greenie
Kath
Mira
Nerwen
Rune
Steve
Zil

Leaning guilty
Shasta

So, if I assume Shasta is guilty, that still leaves two wolves to find and I think they're from the "difficult" category (well it's quite big anyway). Shasta+Nerwen+Greenie seems a little obvious but not unthinkable. Actually, scratch that. Not sure if Greenie and Nerwen look like fellows at all. Hmm... have to think of the combinations more, partially with the vote tallies in hand.


edit: xed with everyone since my last

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Wait, what? Where did that come from?

That was really mostly a very random idea. I tried to think who could be a wolf and that was the first name that came to my mind. I explained later, though:

Originally Posted by me

No idea why Steve. There's something troublingly smooth in his manner and choices when it comes to suspicions and votes etc.

But as you can see, I'm not so enlightened anymore...

There seems to be small chance of Shasta getting lynched, which is a pity. Anybody willing to borrow me some lynch-votes? Seriously, out of the people on phantom's list, he seems the best shot by far. If my humble opinion is worth something, don't lynch Legate. Zil/Nerwen/Greenie I'm torn about but I would possibly prefer Greenie... not sure at all.


edit: x-posted with the two gents and forgot to mark earlier since logged into Facebook for some stupid reason and forgot about ww for ten minutes... blah!

[Folwren]

Does it have to be those five that phantom listed? I think there must be at least one guilty one in amonst them, but still...most of them look innocent to me. I know I'm not voting, but I wish I were - I feel I'd do a better job today than yesterDay. Harhar.

Okay...I'm going to attempt to make a list and say who I think is guilty and who is not. I can't say why I think these things for a couple reasons - I don't have time and in some people's case, I don't have very much foundation...

Probably Innocent
Nerwen
Inzil
Lommy

Less certain but leaning towards innocent
Shasta
Legate
Phantom
Kath

Also less certain, but leaning towards guilty this time
Rune
Mira

I have a guilty feeling about:
Greenie
Steve

Now PLEASE don't freak out about Greenie's name being there. I KNOW I voted for her, but it was only after I voted for her and then started reading more posts (remember, I'm way behind due to Day2) and she started posting more posts that I got a bad, bad, bad feeling about her. I feel something is wrong. I don't have time to go back and figure it out now, but I wanted to put out my list in case any of you reps really cared.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Rune, my dear fellow, Celuien is already dead, so you may as well not bother voting for her, unless you'd like to have us lynch a corpse.

I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .

Ah, right. Missed that. Sorry.

[Thinlómien]

Okay babies, going to sleep.

Please consider Shasta and what I said about him.

And please lynch a wolf (although, I know, that's not a very fair request).

Good night!


edit: xed with baby green

[A Little Green]

This time I'm really going to sleep. I'm going to go for

++Nerwen++

After all I decided to take the risk and simply vote for the one I find most suspicious. In the end I couldn't justify voting Rune since I really don't have that many arguments against him either. I sincerely hope I'm doing the right thing.


EDIT: x-ed with 2xRunne

[A Little Green]

Hmmn. It's 1 AM and I need to be up by eight. Meaning? It's well past my bed-time. As for my vote - I'm still torn between voting Nerwen and voting Runne. I suspect Nerwen more, but I'm not sure any of my fellow reps want to vote her so I might not, either. If nothing drastic has appeared while I'm typing this, I'll vote in my next post and then be off to bed.


EDIT: x-ed with Rune and Foley

[A Little Green]

Rune, who are you thinking of voting?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Rune, who are you thinking of voting?

Well, I don't have any top suspects right now.

I could be convinced to vote Zil or Steve, not because I have a good case against them, but because the way they play. Many of their posts are comments on others theories (if my memory is correct), I have a hard time analyse people who play like this. I know it is not necessarily a trademark of a SoE, but it wouldn't be a bad strategy for the either.

I am also feeling a bit uneasy about You, Shasta and Nerwen, but for some reason I would like to have closer look you lot. Of course I could be convinced to vote for them if I did not care for my other options.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Anybody who thinks that Lommy's thoughts on Shasta are any good?

It sounds reasonable to me, but I haven't had a proper look at him my self. . .

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Green

There he goes again.. If someone considers lynching you they just have to be evil.

The slaying of Nog alone ought to be enough to make me a bad gamble, and combine that with the fact that I refused to save Lottie on Day 1 even though it was totally within my power... I'm sorry, but at this stage it's downright suspicious for Inzil to float my name as a possibility. As if he's hoping beyond hope someone will bite or something.

Originally Posted by Green

As for your five - why them?

This post of mine provides a link to the majority of the analysis I've done today.

[the phantom]

Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.

As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.

Well, you didn't know that at the time, or if you did, you're an elf.

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Mira- A bit like Kath. I just really would like to see more from her. And if both Mira and Kath are Elves, well... that would make me angry.

... and you wouldn't like phantom when he's angry.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

... and you wouldn't like phantom when he's angry.

Ou faminto.