Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, all of it– that is, you seemed rather keen to dispute a case against you that really barely existed in the first place. I mean, I thought I'd made it clear that I only mentioned the possibility of "Seer"–Nog supposedly dreaming A Little Green Elf because I didn't want to leave anything out, rather than because I thought it at all likely. But maybe it didn't look that way to you.

Ah well. I misunderstood you, then. I thought that while you didn't find it probable, you still definitely considered it a possibility - and since I didn't find it a possibility that made sense, I ventured to point that out.

I'll be here for an hour or two now before going to sleep. This obviously means that I have to vote in an hour or two.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sorry that I missed toDay, although looking at this thread (didn't have time to read it yet, but the fact that only about half a page has been posted since yesterDay evening and that there is that nice comic strip in the middle tell me enough) I don't seem to be the only one missing, or not missing much. I want to re-read stuff and then post soon enough, but first I have to check how does it look with the Tolkien reading planned on this evening (see other threads). Ah well, busy times, busy times...

[Kath]

Ahem, so uh ... hi. Apparently, I've had the deadline wrong in my head ever since this game started and well, as you can see I'm here. So while I'm not a Rep despite Rune's strange efforts I am around if anyone has questions etc.

[Eönwë]

Well that's just depressing. Three innocents (well, as far as orcs can be) cursed by unknown forces? What's going on?

I'm just going to reread the Day before I comment any further, and hopefully make that vote-list.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ah, now why Steve?

While I have some time, let's look at Steve.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So, I was trying to read everything posted before I did, but it seems like I'm trying to climb to the top of an ever-growing mountain.


That would be like holding the record for the longest jump on the Moon- totally irrelevant. In fact, let's make it a Day 1 first and totally ignore phantom for a whole Day... well, actually, it's too late for that now that he's been voted in, but we should've.



Well, he only made that promise after you voted for him. Innocent mistake or a sneaky Elvish excuse for justifying voting phantom?


If he acted (even remotely) consistently (other than attention-seeking, of course), he wouldn't be the phantom. Or of course, he could double bluff and just be hinting to the Sons of Elrond that he's the Undecided so that they don't kill him (yet). Or he could begin pretending to hint to them to save himself. Or... well... there's too many possibilities. We'll just have to see what happens.

I agree with you about it being a bad idea, but you can't deny that it would be quite interesting.


"Hearts"? What are we, Elves? *Punches playfully in the face*


It's true. People seem to tend to lose steam about half way through the second half of the Day.


Definitely. This makes Inzil look good. Though, on the other hand, few votes means that the Elves can monopolise the voting.


Have you ever spoken to an angry wolf?


It would be quite funny if they were just playing with us like that, wouldn't it?



Really? We just get 24 hours as usual. Of course, the "I didn't have time to read the thread so I won't comment at all" excuse is more likely to disappear.

Also, an interesting thing would be to see what happens if the Undecided becomes a Rep toDay... er... toOrcWakingCycle.

First post, responding to various people. The second and third snippets are directed at Lottie. In the second, he brings up the idea that Lottie could have been trying to justify her Elvish self for voting tp. He wasn't the first one to question Lottie's vote, certainly, but he does leave it open for an innocent interpretation also.
He also there agrees with me about it being better to not vote for rep than make one at random.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

You can have some of this one *hands Boro a few scattered vertebrae*


I don't like this at all. All this talk about power makes you seem like you're trying to sh


And what about the other options? For example, not basing our Day around the phantom and actually trying to catch some elves. Isn't that what we're trying to do? It's much too early to be turning this into a power-contest, especially since all of us (save five) know nothing, and really have nothing to base anything on.

Also, you speak as if the phantom is on his own team, and, while it is true that it might seem as such, in the end he will b helping one team to win. All this talk of "appeasing" him is pointless- we shouldn't have to bribe him onto our side. If he's an Elf, then he'll just be pretending to be, and if he's an orc then he already should be. And if it's power he wants, he should be the one that has to work to convince us of his innocence.

And finally, this:

So this is basically a case of saying "See, I could be a good representative *hint hint*, but look, I'm voting Lommy for the same job, so it doesn't look like I'm advocating myself too much, and it looks like I'd rather have someone else in charge instead because I 'think' she might be better than me, though I'll still do the job if you rally want me." Or at least, that' what it would mean if you're sneakily trying to get voted for rep, though you could still be innocent and trying to gain power.


I know this post is totally focused on Boro's, but it just seemed wrong in so many ways!


This, on the other hand I kind of agree with:

I.e., we've been so focused on phantom, that we haven't even discussed other candidates or possible voting strategies, and by that I mean whether we want many 'weak' representatives (in which case we might as well just be a normal village), or a few 'powerful' representatives (which is much more risky because one of them could be a wolf, but could also be a strong force for good), or perhaps a mix (which is probably what will happen. But would that be good?

This was in response to Boro, and Steve doesn't appear to care for Boro's words, aside from agreeing that all focus shouldn't be on tp.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I'm going to need to go soon, but I'm considering choosing Legate or Zil as rep. Possibly Lommy, if she can convince me, but that would be a bit too much of an anti-phantom move, which is just as bad as the original pro-phantom move at the beginning of the Day.

Looking at Legate, me, or Lommy for rep.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Though I have to admit that it's Boro that turned voting Lommy into a purely anti-phantom move. So maybe he's trying to make us not vote too anti-phantom (seems the general consensus these days, which makes it a bit of a bangwaggon) and vote him instead, who he portrays as the second best anti-phantomer. Or maybe I'm just reading reading Boro all wrong. I don't know if he'd be that obvious. But if I'm not, I definitely don't like what he's doing by trying to manipulate the Day (maybe even more than the phantom).

In fact, because of him, the anti-phantom bandwaggon now almost seems worse to me than the pro-phantom bandwaggon at the beginning. Or maybe he's just trying to make it seem that way.



And if both Boro and phantom are wolves...

Thinks Boro is trying to make an "anti-phantom bandwaggon, which Steve doesn't care for.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yes, contest. And with no personal gain whatsoever.

Though that was a kind of clever way to stop so many people voting for you so soon, wasn't it?

Some questioning of tp.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Considering voting for rep:
Legate
Zil
Greenie

Also look quite good:
Foley
Lommy

THE CENTRE OF ATTENTION:
The Phantom

Will not vote:
Boro (I have no idea about his alignment, but I don't like his whole "I'll negate phantom" thing)


I'm not sure about other people yet.

No longer considering Lommy for rep (because of Boro?), but still thinks she 'looks quite good'. Won't vote Boro because of his anti-tp platform.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Actually, I'm not sure about Zil. His not voting point seemed good at first, but it may well be something that could help the Elves. Then again, it seemed well-meaning at the time. He was also the first person to suggest not voting, which might be something too obvious for a wolf. Though he may have just been trying to lure unsuspecting innocents (or at least, true orcs) to agree with him, and therefore make them look suspicious (and if someone didn't vote for this reason, would also mean less orc-votes). On the other hand, it seems more to me like he's advocating thinking/waiting until people have actually started posting before voting (instead of doing a Sally), which is just reasonable.

In any case, even if there is a chance he's evil, it might be a good idea to vote him in as a representative to force him out of the shadows (both literally and figuratively).

Changes his mind about whether I or tp was right about the rep-voting deal. Seems rather flip-floppy here overall, and says I should be considered for rep.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So it's good to vote randomly because having an SoE as a rep this early is useful later, but also because you're less likely to get one?

Then goes back to questioning tp about the latter's statement that one is more likely to vote an SoE the longer one waits (writer's note- )

Originally Posted by Eönwë

It does, but then what's the point of having representatives if you're just effectively shrinking the village to half its size?

In response to Wilwa. Honestly, I don't quite get what she was talking about, but it's after lunch and I'm a bit sleepy.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I think they'll probably want to be reps as late in the game as possible. However obvious that may sound, my point is that on Day 2, the reps will be under less scrutiny than on Day 1, and so on, because there will be more other things to go on (in terms of suspicion). So, as well as being more important later on, I think the Elves will want to reps later because they'll have less focus on them.

Thinks the SoE's would rather be reps later than sooner, because they'd be under more scrutiny later on. I see his point, but to me nothing's as concrete for analysis as people's votes.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Well, out of Legate and Greenie, I'm going to vote

[highlight++Greenie[/highlight



Because I like her reasoning and don't think that she's evil.

Votes Greenie for rep, who he'd replaced Lommy with in his top choices.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Why is everyone focusing on either giving the phantom power or negating him? can't we just treat him like a normal representative.

So here Inzil is basically repeating Boro's post about balancing phantom with others, even down to the same suggestion of people: Boro and Lommy. I don't know why, but I don't like the implications of this. Of course, he does also mention Wilwa, but he's still mentioning the same thing. If we make phantom the centre of the game we won't be able to catch any elves.

Seems a bit hypocritical, as he himself had made tp his main topic earlier.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And since everyone's been commenting on it, I just want to say:
Basically, I hope that this was just a joke/spoof that your later comments were just a continuation. In my opinion, it is almost always better to wait (if possible) until people have actually posted before voting, so that you can see what you think of them.

Hm... It takes one to know one. The elves always accuse others of using "elf trick"s as you call them.

Defends Boro somewhat against tp.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Not really, it just sounds like he wants a bit of excitement as opposed to boring, planned out rules for voting each Day. Basically, for everyone to vote what they want without having to think of tactics. Which would certainly make this game far more interesting (whether or not it decreases our chances of winning).



Now this is quite a good point.



But then, if they weren't evil, they'd just get Night-killed.

I didn't want to mention it, but if we do that then it's pretty obvious that if they're not evil they'll get Night-killed. Unless the Elves want to confuse us by not doing so.

Also, I'm not sure if the second "who" was meant to be a "we", but if it was, I just think that it will be very unlikely for us as a whole to reach a consensus on who is trustworthy (That's the whole point of having more than representative), and anyway, as I just said, they'd get quickly picked off by the wolves.


Isn't the Undecided Orc still a true orc even if he works for the elves? Just saying.


Something always happens on Day 1. It doesn't have to be two people voting within the first 20 posts on Day 1. And as you can see, that's kept the attention on them the whole Day (and you too, but I'm sure you enjoy that).

Responding to Izzy, Nog, Lottie and tp x 2. He notes to tp that the UoUA is still an Orc whoever he sides with.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So, changes in how I view people:

Rune- looks generally innocent.
Shasta - Looks good now, but seemed a bit evil to me at first
Inzil - A few things every so often make me loose a little faith in his innocence, but he still seems good.
Nerwen - Looks very good- too good in fact. Especially since she seems to be jumping on the anti-phantom/Lottie logic bandwaggon
Legate- I like what he's saying, but he seems a bit unusual to me.
Wilwa- There's definitely something wrong here. A hint of Elvishness or something.
Izzy- Looks generally innocent but I don't agree with some of her logic.


And I still don't like Boro.


All other people are under my radar and/or should post more.


A few comments:

The fact that Boro (who I don't think looks innocent) suggested Lommy makes Lommy seem good, because firstly, it seems a little too obvious (trying to get a packmate voted as rep, an anti-phantom in this case); and secondly, she was already popular and looked good, so I think he just latched onto that because she's be an easy person to suggest as the anti-phantom).

The phantom actually doesn't look evil- I just disagree with most of what he's saying, and one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons. However, maybe he's trying to cause controversy to root out the elves. And anyway, it would be a bit pointless to lynch him toDay anyway, when we have nothing against him except his disagreeable posts that advocate/advertise voting for him.

Mira's vote: This is where Zil's "no vote is better than a pointless vote" comes in. What if (however unlikelily) the Seer had come out of hiding and declared phantom an elf. Votes like that would just be sentencing us to doom.

Another thing I've noticed is the phantom-Boro-Inzil triangle. Boro and Inzil attacks phantom, and Inzil even votes Boro for rep. I don't like it at all. It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play.

I will be very annoyed if it turns out that phorc, Sally and Lottie are both Elves. As I believe Greenie said earlier, it's quite likely that one of the two (particularly Sally or Lottie) are wolves, as it would be an almost perfect disguise,

On that note, on the phantom and Lottie teamwork (trying to defend their side): they seem a bit too obvious to be elves, but that's exactly the sort of completely bold and reckless move the phantom would try.


Basically, if I were a rep, I think that I would definitely lynch Boro, but for some reason Izzy doesn't seem so benign to me now either.

Doesn't like Boro, and posits that he and I are Elves working in concert against tp. Thinks tp probably isn't evil, but says "those against him are all good". Even Boro and me? Also thinks either Sally and Lottie are wolves. Ends by saying he would lynch Boro, but doesn't like Izzy either.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I personally think that makes her more suspicious, because if she was an elf she'd be voting for her packmate, which makes her look better, but because she only used one vote out of the two, she could've just been trying to look good while not decisively trying to lynch her, which would be a good cover for an Elf.


Looks like you're trying too hard.


So that the wolves would think that.

Responding to tp x 2 and Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Basically, I'm not sure what to think about the phantom-Nerwen argument, but there's something about it that makes me think that they're both on the same side. Either they're fighting Orcs, or both very cunning Elves trying to dominate the Day by confusing all of us. And since they're both very experienced and cunning players, I wouldn't put it past either of them.

Though, obviously, the most probable option is that they're both Orcs that just don't agree (as we know happens so often).

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So phantom, why didn't you vote?

And saying "in order to allow Lottie to be lynched" is not a satisfactory answer. If you are an Orc and truly believed her to be an Elf, it would've made sense to vote her as well (though it might have looked as though you were an Elf just attaching yourself to her death which was already happening, but if you're an Orc then that shouldn't matter because it's more important to lynch Elves than save yourself from possible future accusations). And the other option would be to vote someone else, which would either be a throwaway vote (Which would look suspicious), or could take someone else down too (Which could also look suspicious, as though you want to take an innocent down as well as one of your fellows, if you were an Elf.)

Anyway, my point is that whatever you would've voted would've most likely been criticised or at least questioned in some way, but not voting at all is even worse, because it makes it look as if you don't want to do anything objectionable. It even looks- dare I say it- "careful".

So why choose to vote for no-one when as an innocent Orc it would've been better to vote for who you found suspicious (or at least attempt to get someone lynched)?


I actually suspect that if the phantom does have a special role, he's the Undecided Orc who decided to leave his record clean yesterDay so that he could choose without implications in the Night. And anyway, he's been trying to prove that he's innocent since the beginning, which would be beneficial to have the rest of us believe whatever role he chose to take.


Hm... this musing seems to have ended up a bit longer than expected, but still, "I thought it prudent to leave the lynch the way it was" is no excuse to just purposefully not commit yourself to a vote when you were chosen as a carrier of votes.

Questions tp about his failure to use his three votes Day 1. Posits tp could be UoUA who voted the way he did to "keep his hands clean". That certainly occurred to me as a possibility also.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

This is a very good point. He posted that after he knew that Lottie was lynched. And knowing the phantom, a stunt like that wouldn't be too unlikely if he felt in danger.


That seems about right.


They may have thought it would be a great way to deflect suspicion. It's so obviously suspicious that maybe the hoped that no-one would vote for them. Of course, if that was their plan, it failed miserably, but with one dying it would make the other seem less suspicious, which is why I think we definitely shouldn't cross Sally off the "Suspicious" list.

In the first bit he agrees with Legate about the possibility that a phantelf might have "revealed" after Lottie's fate was sealed to deflect some suspicion.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Thank you those who have voted for me so far. Vote me for a change, for a new dawn... er... yeah. Anyway, I seem to have got something that's made the whole back of my palate swell up. So we'll see how I am tomorrow, and hopefully I'll be able to post more then.


As for who I want to vote as rep, I'm thinking either Legate or Inzil. Or maybe even Sally, just to see what she'd do. *Thinks* Well, maybe not.

Anyway, of the two above, since he already has a vote, I think I'll cement

highlight]++Legate[/highlight

as a representative.

Considers Legate, me, or Sally(?) for rep. Ends up with Legate.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I'm sorry, I haven't had much of a chance to get online at all today, and when I have tried to go on this thread I had the time to do more than read.

I'm catching up now, but here are some of my thoughts so far:


Won't vote for:
Shasta- He seems to speak sense in an innocent way. Though I thought he was evil on early Day 1. I definitely need to reread his posts when I get a chance.
Lommy- Seems a little less innocent than yesterDay, but still makes sense and says a lot that I agree with.
Greenie- Not so sure about her. She felt very innocent yesterDay, but she doesn't so much toDay. She'll be another for me to reread.
Legate- He does seem a bit unclear/abstract at times, but I don't think he's evil.
Phantom- However much he's annoyed me, I can't actually see him being evil.
Inzil- I can never read him, but so far I can't see anything bad about him.
Rune- Just looks like he's having a bit of fun (and isn't that what this is about?), in an innocentish way.

Haven't seen enough:
Kath
Celuien
Mira
Foley- She's been around more than the ones above, but I can't really get a read on her yet.
Nog- See Foley, and he doesn't seem any more suspicious to me than usually does.

No idea (so most likely won't vote just yet):
Nerwen- Not sure whether I like or dislike her, but she's leaning innocent for now.

People who don't look so good:
Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her.
Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed).

edit: fixed formatting and Xed with many (including 3 votes for Xed), though that doesn't matter since I haven't caught up fully anyway.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Having just read Nerwen's Wilwa post and looked at the voting, I have to say that it's unlikely that my top two suspects are both Elves together. Wilwa's vote put both Lottie and Sally in first place, and though it would make her look really innocent if they both turn out to be Elves, I don't think they would have wanted us to find out that they were both Elves (i.e., by getting them lynched). So basically, unless Wilwa was playing extremely riskily, she and Sally probably aren't Elves together.

Which means that one of my choices probably isn't an Elf. And right now, I think that's more likely to be Sally.

So if nothing really happens soon my votes will probably be for Wilwa.

Intends to vote Wilwa.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

FOk, well I can't really see why Celuien is such a suspect now. I'll need to reread her again when I'm less tired, but from what I've seen so far she just doesn't seem really innocent in any way, but she doesn't really look evil either. And she hasn't really posted enough for me to judge her.

And as I said earlier, I'd rather vote Wilwa than Sally right now, so:

[highlight++Wilwa x2++[/highlight


And now it's up to Foley

Gives both votes to Wilwa.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Sorry everyone, I was going to write a list of all the votes so far and stuff, but I'm just exhausted and have a cold, so just a few comments from me.

As many have said so far, I don't really think we can blame Foley for the lynch. Most people (including me) seemed to be almost certain that one of the two would be evil (though the general consensus was that if one was; the other wasn't, I believe), and if one had been evil, a double lynch would have taken care of the problem. However, if we look at it positively, I think we would have wasted time toDay arguing over whether one of yesterDay's two lynchees (had one survived) was evil, since people suspected them for different reasons.


Also:

I almost had a heart attack when I read that.

Doesn't blame Foley, a sentiment with which I agree. Makes a point about the fact that if only one had been lynched, the other would probably be the focus of toDay, and thus, a wasted Day. Probably, but I still don't see the double-lynch as a good thing.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The problem is that as the game wears on, I seem to be getting less and less confident about who I find innocent or guilty.

Anyway, I was going to vote Zil as rep, because I want to see more of him, but since he's already one, and I don't really want him to have too much of a supermacy over the others, I'm going to vote someone else that I wanted to see talk more.


So I'm going to vote:

[highligh]++Rune[/highlight

Let's see what he does with the power he so craves.

Talks (again) of voting me for rep, and goes for Rune instead.

Conclusions? Well, I thought he looked pretty good early on, though he was obviously wrong about Boro. His drawing attention to Lottie could be a point in his favor. His reactions to the phantom have been strange at times, and appear somewhat inconsistant. Now that I look closely, he doesn't seem as innocent as he did earlier. Still, probably not a likely vote for me toDay.

[Eönwë]

I was just about to start on the voting list when I saw this:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Doesn't like Boro, and posits that he and I are Elves working in concert against tp. Thinks tp probably isn't evil, but says "those against him are all good". Even Boro and me? Also thinks either Sally and Lottie are wolves. Ends by saying he would lynch Boro, but doesn't like Izzy either.

Ok, ok, stop right there. Only about half of that is true.

Yes, I did find Boro suspicious, and yes, I thought Izzy might be hiding an Elvish face under her regular, very innocent-looking orcish mask.

When I said "It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play," I included phantom as a possible Elf with the two of you, and was trying to suggest that you might be disassociating yourselves from each other in a way that was so obvious that people wouldn't suspect it. And by saying that it would be "very bold" I also meant that it would be a very unlikely possibility.

As for "those against him are all good", I didn't ever say that. I actually said, "one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons", meaning that because I disagree with him, it's making me feel like those who disagree with him are good, even though my mind tells me they're not (because I find them suspicious). That's why it's "one of the problems".

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I just finished reading the thread and I feel I don't have very much to say toDay anyway, as I would really need to stop and think, or go through it once again, but I have to get up early tomorrow again. I think this Day just didn't work out very well for me I have only a few very basic observations, or "homeworks" for myself: I would like to take a look at several people again; Steve, Greenie, Shasta, possibly Kath (though in her case, I am generally skeptical about the outcome, as I have always trouble reading her).
Celuien being modfired and being an Ordo is sort of discouraging, among other things - most of all, since she was the last one on my list of clearer suspects, I am now rather at loss, and with this hour, I feel quite happy for not having to vote toDay.

I am really looking forward to see the results of toDay's voting and also to see whom the current Reps are going to vote. They are all people who are closer to the "middle" section of my suspicion list, or the "not so sure" section, like there's been something which has shifted their position in my thoughts lately - like reconsidering to feel a bit better about Rune because of his latter posting, being a bit more suspicious of Greenie while considering her sally-pursuit, or being generally unsure about Nerwen. What I have read during this Day has more or less kept the impressions similar in this way. I am perhaps only a bit more worried about Steve now, and a bit less about Inzil.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, phantom, etc.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, a list (this is probably the only way I can really try to think of stuff, if you discount rereading, which I didn't do because I'm a failure and read a book and started writing something random instead...)

Foley - the most innocent person in this cave after me. Says stuff a SoE just wouldn't say plus seems very genuine in her reactions (see the end of yesterDay for example). If she's a SoE I don't really mind losing to her.

Greenie - I've started to suspect her (quite randomly) BUT I think last time I played with her I believed her innocent until came the phase when I start getting paranoid bacuse of lack of suspects and then we lynched her and she was innocent. So I have an eerie feeling that history might be repeating itself and she's probably innocent like I said in the beginning.

Kath - she's so difficult! I'd love to think she's innocent because I've had such nice (totally game unrelated, of course) chats with her on msn recently but I shouldn't let her sweetness thwart me. She is always a bit of an enigma for me, because even though she says her opinions, she always seems a bit detached from the other people in the game in a weird way. Something in her "easy" opinions disturbs me but then again her analysis of her own suspicion of Rune seemed more like something an innocent would do - a SoE could just be lazy and say "it's a gut feeling" since so many people do that anyway that it's not particularily suspicious.

Legate - still thinking he is most likely innocent despite a fishy vote or two. It's the general manner that seems like his innocent self. Like somebody said, he tends to be more "polished" and careful as a wolf. Of course, he might be fooling me completely (which might mean I'm going to cancel all possible plans concerning travelling to the Czech Republic in near future. )

Mira - not around much, thereby no read. We can always pose questions like: wouldn't she be around more if she was a wolf? Or: wouldn't she be more wacky as a wolf? But I can't answer "yes" to these questions without hesitation, so she remains an enigma. I appreciate her effort in the game even though she's now sick, but before she was sick her efforts seemed a bit half-hearted. I wonder if that means being ordo is boring or being SoE makes her lazy to concentrate on wolf hunt. (Or I can come up with several more explanation but I don't like them so much because they don't tell anything about her role... )

Nerwen - I voted her for rep toDay and now I'm wondering if it was smart. I had a feeling she's innocent, and her tone is more like innocent Nerwen than guilty Nerwen. The difference is not big, but innocent Nerwen usually seems more down-to-earth than the slightly dramatic and more bantery wolf Nerwen (if my perception is correct). Greenie's analysis made me slightly worried, though, because it raised some points against her that I had not considered (for example her reactions to the Night kill choices). D-i-f-f-i-c-u-l-t, once again.

Phantom - he's either an innocent who's not fooling me or a SoE who is fooling me. Much prefer explanation #1 and think it more probable. I remember, though, one game where he and I were the wolves and we floated neatly unsuspected from Day1 to the end discounting the obligatory "phantom sucks" suspicion on Day1. I could see him floating like that in this game too.

Rune - like I and somebody else have said several times, he has had quite an easy and relaxing game this far so it's been difficult to judge him based on his reactions. I truly have no idea about him at the moment. I'd like to believe him innocent since I have no real suspicion towards him but atr this point I can't afford being so lenient.

Shasta - has weirdly become my top suspect. I was thinking of him just a while ago and thinking: "What else has he done than argued with phantom, tried to get Sally lynched and buddied Nerwen up?" And I couldn't come up with anything. I could see the scenario so well: a sneaky Shastawolf tries to create no suspicion or extra connections. Everybody knows that he and Sally take contact with each other in ww, that he always wages war with tp and that he has this ww "romance" with Nerwen. Simply his choice of focus seems too easy, and also his strategy: choose one innocent victim to concentrate on, write about phantom so you don't have to write about anything else, buddy up with an innocent who's your friend OR make a convenient voting arrangement with a fellow with a good cover excuse. I also really wonder why Greenie (and Nerwen...?) find him so innocent. Fellow wolves?

Steve - Zil's analysis actually made me feel better about him. There's not really anything too bad that would stand out and he's not quite as fishy as I thought. Still, my read on him atm is very lousy.

Zil - I have the same problem with him as ever. He seems calm, reasonable, reliable and a a bit cold, and it's hard to see his personal feelings or emotional reactions. (Ok ok maybe I shouldn't be surprised given his RL job. ) I have zero reason to suspect him, and that's disturbing. It's just simply difficult to get anything out of this guy.

Hey, yay! See? This made me think! Now I'm happy. I'll summarise for you:

Leaning innocent
Foley
Legate
Phantom

Difficult
Greenie
Kath
Mira
Nerwen
Rune
Steve
Zil

Leaning guilty
Shasta

So, if I assume Shasta is guilty, that still leaves two wolves to find and I think they're from the "difficult" category (well it's quite big anyway). Shasta+Nerwen+Greenie seems a little obvious but not unthinkable. Actually, scratch that. Not sure if Greenie and Nerwen look like fellows at all. Hmm... have to think of the combinations more, partially with the vote tallies in hand.


edit: xed with everyone since my last

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Wait, what? Where did that come from?

That was really mostly a very random idea. I tried to think who could be a wolf and that was the first name that came to my mind. I explained later, though:

Originally Posted by me

No idea why Steve. There's something troublingly smooth in his manner and choices when it comes to suspicions and votes etc.

But as you can see, I'm not so enlightened anymore...

There seems to be small chance of Shasta getting lynched, which is a pity. Anybody willing to borrow me some lynch-votes? Seriously, out of the people on phantom's list, he seems the best shot by far. If my humble opinion is worth something, don't lynch Legate. Zil/Nerwen/Greenie I'm torn about but I would possibly prefer Greenie... not sure at all.


edit: x-posted with the two gents and forgot to mark earlier since logged into Facebook for some stupid reason and forgot about ww for ten minutes... blah!

[Folwren]

Does it have to be those five that phantom listed? I think there must be at least one guilty one in amonst them, but still...most of them look innocent to me. I know I'm not voting, but I wish I were - I feel I'd do a better job today than yesterDay. Harhar.

Okay...I'm going to attempt to make a list and say who I think is guilty and who is not. I can't say why I think these things for a couple reasons - I don't have time and in some people's case, I don't have very much foundation...

Probably Innocent
Nerwen
Inzil
Lommy

Less certain but leaning towards innocent
Shasta
Legate
Phantom
Kath

Also less certain, but leaning towards guilty this time
Rune
Mira

I have a guilty feeling about:
Greenie
Steve

Now PLEASE don't freak out about Greenie's name being there. I KNOW I voted for her, but it was only after I voted for her and then started reading more posts (remember, I'm way behind due to Day2) and she started posting more posts that I got a bad, bad, bad feeling about her. I feel something is wrong. I don't have time to go back and figure it out now, but I wanted to put out my list in case any of you reps really cared.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Rune, my dear fellow, Celuien is already dead, so you may as well not bother voting for her, unless you'd like to have us lynch a corpse.

I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .

Ah, right. Missed that. Sorry.

[Thinlómien]

Okay babies, going to sleep.

Please consider Shasta and what I said about him.

And please lynch a wolf (although, I know, that's not a very fair request).

Good night!


edit: xed with baby green

[A Little Green]

Hmmn. It's 1 AM and I need to be up by eight. Meaning? It's well past my bed-time. As for my vote - I'm still torn between voting Nerwen and voting Runne. I suspect Nerwen more, but I'm not sure any of my fellow reps want to vote her so I might not, either. If nothing drastic has appeared while I'm typing this, I'll vote in my next post and then be off to bed.


EDIT: x-ed with Rune and Foley

[A Little Green]

Rune, who are you thinking of voting?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Rune, who are you thinking of voting?

Well, I don't have any top suspects right now.

I could be convinced to vote Zil or Steve, not because I have a good case against them, but because the way they play. Many of their posts are comments on others theories (if my memory is correct), I have a hard time analyse people who play like this. I know it is not necessarily a trademark of a SoE, but it wouldn't be a bad strategy for the either.

I am also feeling a bit uneasy about You, Shasta and Nerwen, but for some reason I would like to have closer look you lot. Of course I could be convinced to vote for them if I did not care for my other options.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Green

There he goes again.. If someone considers lynching you they just have to be evil.

The slaying of Nog alone ought to be enough to make me a bad gamble, and combine that with the fact that I refused to save Lottie on Day 1 even though it was totally within my power... I'm sorry, but at this stage it's downright suspicious for Inzil to float my name as a possibility. As if he's hoping beyond hope someone will bite or something.

Originally Posted by Green

As for your five - why them?

This post of mine provides a link to the majority of the analysis I've done today.

[the phantom]

Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.

As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.

Well, you didn't know that at the time, or if you did, you're an elf.

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Mira- A bit like Kath. I just really would like to see more from her. And if both Mira and Kath are Elves, well... that would make me angry.

... and you wouldn't like phantom when he's angry.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Seems a bit hypocritical, as he himself had made tp his main topic earlier.

Also, that was actually half a Day (about 22 hours) later- and everyone was still talking about the phantom.