Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[the phantom]

REP VOTES ALL THREE DAYS:

Celuien--> Foley, (----), (----)
Foley--> Celuien, (----), Green
Green--> Nerwen, Steve, Inzil
Inzil--> Boro, Shasta, Green
Shasta--> Izzy, Nerwen, Nerwen
Nerwen--> Lommy, Shasta, (----)
Lommy--> Green, Nog, Nerwen
Steve--> Green, Legate, Rune
Rune--> Lommy, Steve, Kath
Legate--> Nerwen, Foley, Rune
Kath--> (----), (----), Inzil
Mira--> Phantom, (----), (----)
Phantom--> Celuien, Legate, (----)

MUTUAL VOTES:
Celuien & Foley (*)
Rune & Steve (*)
Green (*) & Steve
Green & Inzil (*)
Nerwen & Shasta (*)
Nerwen & Lommy (*)

We can only guess as to whether or not the Elves are concerned with direct voting ties like this. If they're looking to tie Orcs to them in case they're lynched, then the suspicious of the two votes will be the second one that links the pair (I marked the second player to vote with a star).

VOTING TRIANGLES:

Legate-->Rune-->Steve

A triangle, with Steve voting for both other members instead of one.

Lommy-->Green-->Nerwen

A triangle, with a double bond between Lommy-Nerwen.

VOTING TANGLES:

Green for Nerwen & Inzil, Inzil for Green & Shasta, Shasta for Nerwen, Nerwen for Shasta

So basically what we have there is one mutual pair (Green-Inzil) voting for another mutual pair (Nerwen-Shasta). Plus each mutual pair has a member with another mutual voter, Green-Steve and Lommy-Nerwen.

CONCLUSIONS:

Um....? Well, the obvious answer is that we have no idea what the Elves have decided to do, so who knows? But if we were to go with the simple idea that Elves want each other in power and wish to tie themselves to innocents, then you possibly have a Green-Inzil-Steve grouping trying to tie themselves to Shasta, Nerwen, Rune, and Legate?

Bleh, I'm too tired to think about this stuff. Too much to do and no sleep to fuel me. I'll come back after I get some work done.

[the phantom]

Okay, now that Sally is dead and all, it is time to go back to Day 1-

We have two choices here- assume there were NO Elves elected, or assume there was an Elf (or Elves) present in the voting. We know for a fact at this point that both of the candidates running against Lottie were innocent, and so the desires of the Elves would be quite clear on that first day (to vote or encourage a vote away from Lottie).

If the Elves were playing straight up, that would mean the following could be showing Elf colors-

Green- Voted Sally
Celuien- Voted Boro
Nerwen- Voted Sally & Boro
Shasta- Push Sally over Lottie

(And I see in my post above that Green, Nerwen, and Shasta are linked by Rep votes as well.)

I'm still not completely buying anyone who was pushing Sally over Lottie that first day. Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!! Obviously I couldn't say anything about it at the time, but it did really really annoy me that the thought didn't occur to more. People never vote completely and totally randomly. It is always based upon something. And so if someone comes on and votes before any posts have been made, the first conclusion my mind leaps to is that the person already has information!

Now, as the day went along naturally my knee-jerk reaction cooled, and I realized that her odds of being the Seer were still not terribly high given the size of the village, but still, it was a possibility that I could not discount, and she was certainly higher on the potential list than most. I mean, how big an idiot would I be if I let a Seer who had dreamed of me die? My talk of Boro being a safe candidate that day- I really did mean it. He was one person that I was pretty well certain was not the Seer, and that's the main reason I preferred his lynch. For me Day 1 wasn't about lynching an Elf so much as it was about not lynching the Seer. You know me- always fear the worst.

Now, as Day 2 rolled along I watched Sally carefully and was able to cross her off my potential Seer list, and so I wasn't so worried about her lynch after that (though I still thought her innocent). But yesterday aside, it still doesn't take away from what happened Day 1, and I can't help but wonder if someone who pushed or actually tried to lynch Sally over Lottie wasn't in fact quite aware that Lottie was the safer choice.

Of course I realize that this theory of mine has about zero chance of being acted upon considering two of the four Rep voters are among those I am accusing.

[Nerwen]

Firstly, apologies for the non-vote. I couldn't get online in time.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!!

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

[Nerwen]

Not that I'm complaining about your looking at those of us who voted someone other than Lottie. Fair enough. I mean any SoE among the reps wouldn't be too pleased at having one of their own Fenrissed, obviously. I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too.

By the way: you still don't have "known Orc" status in my eyes, phantom. I've said why the Night-kill tends to support your innocence, but also why it doesn't prove it.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

I wasn't trying to imply that she was, but rather- someone could try and take advantage of making an "idiot-move" banking on people thinking it is stupid and thus discounting it, you know? Sally being who she is, I definitely didn't think I could discount it at the time.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way: you still don't have "known Orc" status in my eyes, phantom. I've said why the Night-kill tends to support your innocence, but also why it doesn't prove it.

Yes yes, I'm not dead yet, and so can't be "known". Certainly. But given both the night-kill and my Day 1 abstaining from the vote, I would at the least hope I'm solidly in the lower half of suspects.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not that I'm complaining about your looking at those of us who voted someone other than Lottie. Fair enough. I mean any SoE among the reps wouldn't be too pleased at having one of their own Fenrissed, obviously.

Yes, I'm really hoping there was an Elf voting on Day 1. I want there to be a trail. And speaking of trails, I very much hope that both Kath and Mira aren't Elves.

[the phantom]

Early morning tomorrow, so off to bed. I'll try and check in and read sometime in mid to late morning, but if there is a lot of action I may not have time to respond until lunch. I'll be around as often as I can after that.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

The problem is that as the game wears on, I seem to be getting less and less confident about who I find innocent or guilty.

This seems to be a common problem in this village..

Originally Posted by Feamoddess

Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay.

Seriously, what is it with this game??

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

It did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too.

Which part of it, exactly?